Features
Recent earth tremors around Victoria dam – a scientific explanation in relation to the tectonic history of Sri Lanka
By Dulip Jayawardena
(Retired Economic Affairs Officer United Nations ESCAP 1990 to 2003 Former Director Geological Survey Department- Present GSMB (1983-1986)
Earth tremors were reported in the print and electronic media on 29 August and also 2 September 2020 in an area surrounding the Victoria dam in Kandy. The Geological Survey and Mines Bureau (GSMB) the designated Agency to monitor such earth tremors have mobilized geologists to investigate the damages caused by such earth movements.
The Director General of the GSMB announced that there had been no records of such tremors in the Pallekelle seismic monitoring station which is close to the areas affected. However, a senior Director who is a geologist gave a different version and reported that tremors were detected at the monitoring station.
The reporting of earth tremors and earthquakes are on the Richter scale, which has been revised many times. According to this scale unit 1 records a micro tremor not felt or felt rarely and the frequency of occurrence worldwide is several million per year. The scale 2 -2.9 is felt slightly by some people and damage to buildings and the worldwide frequency per year is over 1 million. The magnitude 3 to 3.9 is a minor tremor often felt by people but very rarely causes damage. Shaking of indoor objects can be noticed. The frequency is over 100,000 per year. The magnitude 4.0 -4.9 is noticeable with the shaking of indoor objects and ratting noises and felt by most people in the affected area and slightly felt outside and generally causes minimal damage. Moderate to significant damage very unlikely. Some objects may fall off shelves or be knocked over and the frequency worldwide is 10,000 15 000 per year.
Tectonic evolution of Sri Lanka theories of three peneplains and upliftment and plate tectonics
The earlier theory of the three peneplains was proposed by Wadia in the late 1948 when he was the Director of the Mineralogy Department. His theory was based on the ring of waterfalls around the country that were caused by erosion of the rocks to the upper plain mid plain and the lower plain.
However, in 1974 after a gravity survey was conducted by the Geological Survey Department (Present GSMB ) covering the entire island and it was conclusively proved that the there was an upliftment of the Precambrian terrain composed of over 80 per cent of the land area which had earlier being recognized as the Highland and Vijayan Series.
The Gravity Map of Sri Lanka on the scale of 1:100000 was published with an explanation as Professional Paper No 3 with T Hatherton, D. B. Pattiarachchi and V. V. C. Ranasinghe. This was possible with technical cooperation by the Government of New Zealand under the Colombo Plan.
During the gravity survey, earlier trigonometrical stations established by the Survey Department on the triangular survey for the topographical maps were reopened. It was then noticed that some bench marks for these stations were uplifted especially in the hill country of the island.
The most significant revelation was a significant gravity low continuously identified between the eastern boundary of the Highland and Vijayan series rocks. This led to the theory of plate tectonics where the Vijayan series sank below the Highland series forming a convergent plate boundary.
The evidence for such activity can be seen in the change of course of the Mahaweli river from a direction of north east to north as indicated by some Buddhist shrines such as Somawathi and Deegawapi which were earlier on the banks of this river.
Earth tremors are noted frequently along this fault line and geologists together with geophysicists should constantly monitor such movements.
A new tectonic plate boundary between
Australia and India
Many researchers have carried out extensive studies on the development of a new tectonic plate boundary in the Indian Ocean which occurred over 40 million years ago. This boundary that runs east west is about 400-500 kms south of Sri Lanka. If this boundary is activated it will have devastating effects to the infrastructure south of Sri Lanka such as the Hambantota Port, Mattala Airport and industrial zones envisaged in the area.
Danger to Victoria concrete arch
dam from earth tremors
Victoria dam is the largest concrete dam in Sri Lanka built under the Mahaweli Project costing Rs 9.8 billion during 1980-1984 to solve problems as hydropower for the country diversion of water for agriculture, solving unemployment, encouraging inland fisheries and flood control.
“Victoria Dam is a double curvature (cupola) arch dam of 122 meters maximum height and 520 meters crest length. The arch dam is constructed with the individual crown cantilevers. A large amount of water load acting on the upstream surface of the dam is transferred to the abutment by arch action and a certain amount of water load is transferred to the foundation by cantilever action. The destruction of the Victoria dam can cause flooding up to Trincomalee affecting the livelihood of the area .crack was identified and it has been developing in the downstream face of the Victoria dam (Sri Lanka Head works Division of Mahaweli Authority 2014)Therefore the Victoria Dam is investigated to identify the effect of earthquake ” (Ref Assessment of Concrete Arch dam under Possible Earthquake Loading in Sri Lanka Case Study on Victoria Dam by Shobitha Tharamarajah and Kamal Karunananda International Journal of Scientific and Engineering Research Volume 8 Issue 10 October 2017 ISSN 2229-5518)”
Another article titled “Comprehensive monitoring of Victoria Dam /Civil + Structural Engineer magazine <https://csengineermag.com/comprehensive-monitoring-of- victor…. > should also be studied.
All interested parties should access these excellent articles as it covers all aspects of strengthening the Victoria dam to avoid any major catastrophe.
Reservoir induced earthquakes –application to arch and gravity dams in Sri Lanka
As stated above, the only large concrete arch dam in Sri Lanka is the Victoria dam, which was built mainly for the supply of hydroelectricity. Another concrete arch dam is Canyon producing hydroelectricity.
Apart from the Victoria dam there are dams built for irrigation and hydroelectricity throughout Sri Lanka which are gravity concrete dams. There are also embankment dams constructed mainly for irrigation.
The gravity dams constructed mainly for generation of hydroelectricity are at Bowatenna, Broadlands, Castlereigh Dyraaba, Kalu Ganga, Kotmale, Kukule Ganga,Laksapana, Maskeliya, Moragahakanda, Moragolla Norton ,Nilambe, Polgolla Puhulpola, Rantambe, and Upper Kotmale Ganga,
(Ref Dams and reservoirs of Sri lanka –Wikipedia< https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of _dams_and reservoirs_in _…)
It is asked whether the gravity dams constructed mainly in the hill country are being monitored for any tremors using the latest seismic equipment as at Victoria as reservoirs of these dams will also be subject to reservoir triggered seismicity giving rise to earth tremors or earthquakes.
It is also noted that most of the above reservoirs are located in areas with less inhabitants and the tremors will not be felt as at Victoria.
Dams in Sri Lanka are built on valleys that have formed by active erosion with recent theory of upliftment as indicated by the gravity survey covering the island. It is also known that under compressional tectonic force reverse or thrust faults produce upliftment giving rise to tremors
It is known that reservoir induced seismicity can also occur after a few years and will depend on the permeability of the rocks beneath the reservoir.
It is also noted that indused earthquakes at reservoirs experience delayed triggering at depths of 10 to 20 kilometers. Such earthquakes may occur 10 to twenty years after filling the reservoir. In this regard it is noted that the Victoria reservoir was filled in 1985 which is 35 years ago.
Further the other gravity dams also should be subject to regular monitoring for any tremors due to reservoir triggered seismicity. However, it is not easy to predict reservoir induced seismicity due to the state of stress and the rock strength at earthquake depths are not subject to direct measurement.
Ref : Dams and earthquakes –Seismology Research Centre
(https://www.src.com.au/earthquakes/seismology-101/dams-eart .. )
Recommendations
In the above article I have attempted to explain the recent earth tremors experienced in the valley surrounding the Victoria Dam as well as the high ground which occupied by villagers. These tremors were felt on two occasions and the GSMB has mobilized a number of geologists to investigate what damages have been caused to the dwellings etc. A retired Professor of Geology of the Peradeniya University has attributed the tremors to the extensive quarrying operations carried out for limestone in an area above the Victoria dam.
The GSMB is also investigating the triggering of these tremors due to the Victoria reservoir indused seismicity which I have also dealt above.
With my past experience as a geologist who mapped the area in the late 1970s there are many fold belts with prominent fault zones that could be activated with gradual upliftment of the terrain as proved by the gravity survey conducted in 1975.
It is important to monitor the other gravity dams I have listed as with age of these dams the pore pressure will increase at depths to kilometers beneath the reservoir.
I urge the government to appoint a multidisciplinary team of experts comprising of geologists , geophysicists, hydrologists, civil engineers and those from the NBRO as well as the universities to study the state of the Victoria dam as well as other gravity dams and recommend an effective method of monitoring such tremors.
I had been involved in advising the late Dr A. N. S. Kulasinghe on the problems involved in the construction of the Upper Kothmale gravity dam in a landslide prone area. However it is now opportune to monitor any seismicity and take remediable measures.
As revealed above the Victoria dam developed a crack on the downstream part in 2014 and is important that constant monitoring should be carried out .
I was also involved in following up the construction of the Victoria dam in early 1980 when the then Professor of Geology of the Peradeniya University revealed that a major fault zone runs along the axis of the dam. However, the consultant engineers responded that the Victoria dam was designed to take a wave crest of 10 meters over the dam and there is no danger to its stability.
I hope this article will be helpful to the experts to draw up a comprehensive long term plan to monitor our gravity dams that mainly generate hydroelectricity as well provide water for irrigation.
Last but not least the effects of climate change on these reservoirs and the surrounding areas should not be ignored .
(The author can be reached at fasttrack@eol.lk )
Features
Viktor Orban, Benjamin Netanyahu and Donald Trump: The Terrible Threes of the 21st Century
In the autumn of 1956, Hungary staged the first uprising against the 20th century Soviet behemoth. Seventy years later, in the spring of 2026 Hungary has delivered the first electoral thrashing against 21st century right wing populism in Europe. The 1956 uprising was crushed after seven days. But the opposition scored a landslide victory in Hungary’s parliamentary election held on Sunday, April 12 and. Viktor Orban, Prime Minister since 2010 and the architect of what he proudly called “the illiberal state”, was resoundingly defeated. Orban who has been a pain in the neck for the European Union was a close ally of US President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
Trump even dispatched his Vice President JD Vance to Budapest to campaign for Orban. After Orban’s defeat, Trump and his MAGA followers may be having nightmares about the US midterm elections in November. Similarly, Orban’s defeat has reportedly caused “great concern in the halls of power in Jerusalem.” Netanyahu has lost his only ally in the European Union and the opposition victory in Hungary does not augur well for his own electoral prospects in the Israeli elections due in October.
Ceasefire Hopes
Trump and Netanyahu have bigger things to worry about in the Middle East and among their own political bases. Trump is going bonkers, blasphemously imitating Christ and badmouthing the Pope, launching a blockade in the Strait of Hormuz and strong arming more talks in Islamabad. Netanyahu has been forced to sit on his hands, pausing his fight against Iran while pursuing peace talks with Lebanon. The leaders and diplomats from Pakistan, Egypt and Turkey are shuttling around drumming up support for another round of talks in Islamabad and a prolonged extension of the ceasefire.
Further talks in Islamabad and potential extension of the ceasefire received a new boost by Trump’s announcement of a new 10-day ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon. The background to this development appears to be Iran’s insistence on having this secondary ceasefire, and Trump insisting on ceasefire abidance by Hezbollah in return for his ordering Netanyahu to stop his brutal ‘lawn mowing’ in Lebanon. All of this might seem to augur well for a potential extension of the primary ceasefire between the US and Iran. There are also reports of the narrowing of gap between the two parties – involving a potential moratorium on Iran’s uranium enrichment, the opening of the Strait of Hormuz, and Iran’s access to its frozen assets estimated to be $100 billion.
Meanwhile the IMF has released its latest World Economic Outlook with a grim forecast. “Once again, says the report, “the global economy is threatened with being thrown off the course – this time by the outbreak of war in the Middle East.” Before the war, the IMF was expected to upgrade its growth forecasts for the global economy. Now it is going to be weaker growth and higher inflation with oil price optimistically stabilizing around $100 a barrel in 2026 and $75 a barrel in 2027. In a worst case scenario, if the oil prices were to hit $110 in 2026 and $125 in 2027, growth everywhere will further weaken and inflation will go further up in countries big and small.
In a joint statement on the Middle East, the Finance Ministers of the United Kingdom, Australia, Japan, Sweden, Netherlands, Finland, Spain, Norway, Republic of Ireland, Poland and New Zealand have called on the IMF and World Bank “to provide a coordinated emergency support offer for countries in need, tailored to country circumstances and drawing on the full range and flexibility of their tool kits.” They have also welcomed “advice on domestic responses that are temporary, targeted, and effective, and encourage work to identify steps needed to protect long-term growth.”
Subversion from the Right
The two men, Trump and Netanyahu, who started the war and precipitated the current crisis are not being held accountable by anyone and they are still free to do what they want and as they please. The third man, Victor Orban, who did not have anything to do with the war but extended wholehearted ideological and political support as a faithful apprentice to the two older sorcerers, has been democratically defeated. Together, they formed the terrible threes of the 21st century, spearheading a subversion from the right of the emerging liberal status quo of the post Cold War world. Orban’s defeat is a significant setback to the illiberal right, but it is not the end of it.
The three emerged in the specific historical contexts of their own polities that are both vastly different and yet share powerful ingredients that have proved to be politically potent. The broader context has been the end of the Cold War and the removal of the perceived external threat which opened up the domestic political space in the US, for locking horns over primarily cultural standpoints and climate politics. This era began with the Clinton presidency in 1992 and the election of Barack Obama 16 years later, in 2008, created the illusion of a post-racial America.
In reality, the right was able to push back – first with the younger Bush presidency (2000-2008) pursuing compassionate conservatism, and later with the foray of Trump (2016-2020) threatening to end what he called the “American Carnage.” Of the 32 years since the election of Bill Clinton, Democrats have controlled the White House for 20 years over five presidential terms (Clinton – two, Obama – two, and Biden -one), while the Republicans won three terms (Bush – two, Trump – one) spanning 12 years.
Trump has since won a second term for another four years, but already in his five+ years in office he has issued executive orders to roll back almost all of the liberal advancements in the realms of civil rights, equality, diversity and inclusion. All that the celebrated acronym DEI (Diversity, Equality and Inclusion) stands for has been executively ordered to be banished from the state, its agencies and its programs.
In Europe, the European Union became the champion and bulwark of liberalism and subsidiarity, which in turn provoked the rise of right wing populism in every member country. Brexit was the loudest manifestation against what was considered to be EU’s overreach, but after Britain’s bitter Brexit experience the populists in the European countries gave up on demanding their own exit and limited themselves to fighting the EU from their national bases.
Viktor Orban became the face and voice of anti-EU nationalists. But he and his political party, the Christian Nationalist Fidesz – Hungarian Civic Alliance, are not the only one. Nigel Farage’s Reform UK in Britain and Marine Le Pen’s National Rally Party in France are becoming real electoral contenders, while right wing presidents have been elected in Argentina and Chile.
The rise and fall of Viktor Orban
Of the three terribles, Orban is the youngest but with the longest involvement in politics. Born in 1963, Viktor Orban became a political activist as a 15-year old high schooler, becoming secretary of a Young Communist League local. He continued his activism while studying law in Budapest, visiting Poland and writing his thesis on the Polish Solidarity movement, giving lectures in West Germany and the US as a potential future Hungarian leader, and undertaking research on European civil society at Pembroke College, Oxford.
At the age of 26, Orban gained national prominence with a speech he delivered on June 16, 1989 in Budapest’s Heroes’ Square to mark the reburial of Imre Nagy and other Hungarians killed in the 1956 uprising. Imre Nagy was the leader of the 1956 Hungarian uprising against the puppet Soviet Union outpost in Budapest.
To digress and make a local connection – the pages of Sri Lanka’s parliamentary Hansard of 1956, contain an impressive record of the political debate in Sri Lanka over the events in Hungary. The LSSP’s Colvin R de Silva eloquently led the Trotskyite prosecution of the Soviet invasion of Hungary and the suppression of its freedoms. Pieter Keuneman of the Communist Party used his wit and debating skills to defend the indefensible. GG Ponnambalam, the unrepentant anti-communist, used the opportunity to take swipes on both sides. Finally, for the government, Prime Minister SWRD Bandaranaike deployed his own oratorical skills to empathize with the uprising without condemning the USSR. The four men were Sri Lanka’s foremost verbal gladiators and they used the occasion to put on quite a display of their talents.
Back to Hungary, where Orban began his political vocation identifying himself with Imre Nagy and demanding the withdrawal of the Soviet army from Hungary and calling for free elections in that country to elect a new government. That same year in 1989, Fidesz was recognized as a political party; Orban became its leader four years later in 1993 and led the party and its allies to their first victory and formed a new government in 1998. At age 35 Orban became the second youngest Prime Minister in Hungary’s history.
During his first term, Orban started well on the economy, reducing inflation and the budget deficit, was welcomed to the White House by President George W. Bush, and led Hungary to join NATO overruling Russian objections. But the slide into authoritarianism and corruption was just as quick, including the attempt to replace the two-thirds parliamentary majority requirement by a simple majority. By the end of the term the ruling coalition disintegrated and Orban lost the 2002 election and became the leader of the opposition over the next two terms till 2010.
Orban returned to power with a two-thirds majority in 2010 and immediately introduced a new constitution that set the stage for ushering in the illiberal state. What had been previously a communist state now became a Christian state where ‘traditional values’ of gender rights, sexuality, and exclusive nationalism were constitutionally enshrined. The electoral system was changed reducing the number parliamentarians from 386 to 199 – with 103 of them directly elected and 93 assigned proportionately. Orban went on to win three more elections over 16 years – in 2014, 2018 and 2022 – each with a two-thirds majority, and used the time and power to transform Hungary into a conservative fortress in Europe.
The new constitution and its frequent amendments were used to centralize legislative and executive power, curb civil liberties, restrict freedom of speech and the media, and to weaken the constitutional court and judiciary. It was his opposition to non-white immigration that made him “the talisman of Europe’s mainstream right”. He described immigration as the West’s answer to its declining population and flatly rejected it as a solution for Hungary. Instead, he told his compatriots, “we need Hungarian children.” His ‘Orbanomics’ policies restricted abortion and encouraged family formation – forgiving student debt for female students having or adopting children, life-long tax holiday for women with four or more children, and sponsoring fixed-rate mortgages for married couples.
Orban wanted to make Hungary an “ideological center for … an international conservative movement”. Orban heaped praise on Jair Bolsonaro for making Brazil the best example of a “modern Christian democracy.” He endorsed Trump in every one of Trump’s three presidential elections, the only European leader to do so. In return, Orban has been described by US MAGA ideologue Steve Bannon as “Trump before Trump.” Orban’s attack on universities for being the citadels of liberalism have found their echoes in Trump’s America and Modi’s India.
For all his efforts in making Hungary a conservative ideological centre, Viktor Orban’s undoing came about because of Hungary’s growing economic crises and the depth of corruption and systemic nepotism that engulfed the government. The economy has tanked over the last three years with rising prices and the national debt reaching 75% of the GDP – the highest among East European countries. Orban’s critics have exposed and the people have experienced systemic corruption that enabled the siphoning of public wealth into private accounts, the creation of a ‘neo-feudal capitalist class’, and the enrichment of family and friends. Orban’s corruption became the central plank of the opposition platform that Peter Magyar and his Tisza Party presented to the voters and caused his ouster after 16 years.
The Prime Minister elect is not a dyed in the wool liberal, but a member of a conservative Budapest family, and a politician cut from the old Orban cloth. Magyar (literally meaning “Hungarian”) was once a “powerful insider” in the Fidesz government – notably active in foreign affairs, while his ex-wife was once the Minister of Justice in Orban’s cabinet. Mr. Magyar may not fully roll back all of Orban’s illiberalism, but he has committed himself to eliminating corruption, increasing social welfare spending, limiting the prime ministerial tenure to two terms, and being more pro-European, EU and NATO.
EU and European leaders have openly welcomed the change in Hungary, and may be looking for the new government to change Orban’s vetoing of a number of EU initiatives, especially those involving assistance to Ukraine. In return, the new government in Hungary will be expecting the unfreezing of as much as $33 billion funds that the EU extraordinarily chose to freeze as punishment for Orban’s illiberal initiatives in Hungary. For Trump and Netanyahu, the defeat of Viktor Orban removes their only ally and supporter in all of Europe.
by Rajan Philips
Features
ICONS:A Dialogue Across Centuries
Sky Gallery of the Fareed Uduman Art Forum is dedicated to bringing audiences, cultures, and time periods together through meaningful and accessible art experiences to create the closest possible encounters with the world’s greatest paintings. Previous exhibitions include, Gustav Klimt, Frida Kahlo, Paul Gauguin, Vincent Van Gogh, Salvador Dali.
ICONS is conceived as “a dialogue across centuries” bringing together over a dozen artistic geniuses whose works span the Renaissance to the modern era. These works at their original scales of creation changes the conversation. You can finally stand in front of a life-size Vermeer or a monumental Monet and feel the dialogue between artists who never met but shaped each other across time. Each exhibit is meticulously presented on canvas, hand-framed, and finished at the exact dimensions of the original masterpieces, preserving the integrity of composition, texture, brushwork, color and scale.
At the heart of the exhibition is Jan van Eyck’s ‘Arnolfini Portrait’, a work that epitomizes the detail, symbolism, and human intimacy that have inspired generations of artists. Alongside it, visitors will encounter paintings that shaped the renaissance, impressionism, modernism, and the evolution of visual storytelling by Munch, Matisse, Monet, Degas, Da Vinci, Renoir, Vermeer, Rembrandt, Cézanne, Caravaggio, and more. The exhibition invites audiences to experience a rare conversation across centuries of artistic brilliance.
By bringing together works that are geographically and historically dispersed, ICONS creates a compelling space for comparison, reflection, and discovery. Visitors are invited to move beyond passive viewing into a more engaged encounter—tracing artistic influence, identifying stylistic shifts, and uncovering unexpected connections between artists who never shared the same physical space, yet remain deeply interconnected across time.
Designed and curated for both seasoned art enthusiasts and first-time visitors, ICONS offers an experience that is at once educational, immersive, and accessible—removing many of the traditional barriers associated with global museum-going.
Exhibition Details:
Dates: April 24 – May 3
Time: 10:00 AM – 5:00 PM (Monday – Sunday)
Venue: Sky Gallery Colombo 5
Features
Our Teardrop
BOOK REVIEW
Ranoukh Wijesinha (2026)
Published by Jam Fruit Tree Publications.
82 pages. Softcover. ISBN 978-624-6633-81-3
The author is a graduate teacher at St. Thomas’ College, Mount Lavinia; his alma mater. On leaving school he read for a Bachelor of Arts Degree in English Language and English Literature at the University of Nottingham (Malaysia). On graduating, in 2024, he went back to his old school to teach these same disciplines. There seems to be a historic logic to this as his grandfather, a notable Thomian of his day, also started his working career as a teacher at the College before moving on to the world of publishing; as a newspaper journalist and sub-editor.
On his maternal side, Wijesinha’s grandfather was an accomplished journalist, thespian and playwright of his day, and his mother is also a much sought after teacher of English and English Literature and, as acknowledged by him, his first, and foremost, English teacher.
Though there are some well-written, almost lyrical, pieces of prose in this publication, it is the poetry that dominates. Written with a sensitivity to people and events he has either observed himself, or as described to him by those who did, it also encompasses all genres of poetic verse, from the classical to the modern, including sonnets, acrostics, haiku to free and blank verse, the latter more in vogue today. All in all, it presents as a celebration of English poetry and its ability to, sometimes, express depth of thought and feeling far better than prose.
Dedicated to his mentor at St. Thomas’, his Drama and Singing Master had been a great influence on Wijesinha His sudden, premature, death understandably came as a shock to the still developing student under his tutelage. The poems “The Man who Made Me” and “The Curtain Called” best demonstrate this. In addition, it is apparent that Wijesinha has endured much mental trauma in his young life. Spending much time on his own, the questions these moments have raised are expressed in “When No One is Listening”, “There was a Time”, “Midnight Walks” and the prose “A Ramble through Colombo”.
However, the majority of the poems concern ‘Our Teardrop’, Sri Lanka, for whom the writer has a great love. He explores its history, its natural wonders, its people, its tragedies, its corruption and the hope that things will get better for all its people. “Bala’ and “Dicky” address a time of violence from days gone by when there were few glories, just victims. “Easter Sunday” brings this almost to the present time.
There also is humour. “Ado, Machang, Bro, Dude” celebrates his friends and friendships in a way that will reverberate with all the present and previous generations of those who are, or were once, in their late teens and early twenties.
There is little to criticise in this first of the writer’s forays into published works except, as referred to previously, to re-state that the prose quails in the face of the power of the poetry. It is all well written, filled with passion and compassion, and gives comfort that there still are young Sri Lankan writers who can be this brave, and write so powerfully, and profoundly, in English. It is hoped that this is just the first of many from the pen of this young writer.
L S M Pillai
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