This episode of Australia-India was always going to be spicy, because, well, it’s Australia-India, and because November 19 and all that. But now, after the events of  June 22, there’s even more riding on it. Group 1 of the Super Eight in T20 World Cup 2024 is now thrillingly open.

This isn’t a must win game for either team, but Australia will be on wafer-thin ice if they lose. And while India’s net run rate gives them a decent safety net, there is still a chance they could lose out on a semi-finals slot.

It’s Australia-India, then, and the stakes are as high as they could possibly be. What more could a cricket fan ask for? Well, there’s one thing: the weather forecast in St Lucia isn’t hugely encouraging.

A washout would suit India just fine, sealing their semi-finals spot, but for Australia the difference between two points and one could be humongous. They are well aware of this, having been haunted by this difference in a global tournament not that long ago.

This hasn’t been the best of World Cups for Mitchell Marsh,  with six innings bringing him just 88 runs at an average of 17.60 and a strike rate of 111.39. Conditions in the West Indies haven’t always been conducive to the Australia captain’s brand of hit-through-the-line strokeplay, but a return to St Lucia, the highest-scoring venue of this tournament, could help him find his way back into form.

Arshdeep Singh is India’s highest wicket-taker in this World Cup with 12 strikes at the rate of one every 10 balls, but he’s also been their only regular bowler with an economy rate north of 7. He’s looked hugely impressive when the ball has swung, but he’s also looked inconsistent with his lengths at other times, which he will want to guard against on Monday given the opposition and the likely conditions.

Australia played the extra spinner against Afghanistan, bringing in Ashton Agar and leaving out Mitchell Starc. They could yet continue with that combination – Agar featured in their one previous game in St Lucia, against Scotland – particularly with Rohit Sharma and Virat Kohli not too fond of facing left-arm spin in the powerplay, but given the nature of this contest, will they continue to leave out one of their most tried-and-tested match-winners?

Australia (probable): Travis Head,  David Warner,  Mitchell Marsh (capt),  Glenn Maxwell,  Marcus Stoinis,  Tim David,  Matthew Wade (wk),  Pat Cummins, Mitchell Starc/Ashton Agar,  Adam Zampa,  Josh Hazlewood.

It seems unlikely India will tinker with their 3-3 bowling combination (with Hardik Pandya as one of their three seamers), but their two left-arm orthodox spinners may come under a bit of pressure if either Travis Head or David Warner bats into the middle overs.

India (probable):  Rohit Sharma (capt),  Virat Kohli,  Rishabh Pant (wk),  Suryakumar Yadav,  Shivam Dube, Hardik Pandya,  Axar Patel,  Ravindra Jadeja,  Arshdeep Singh,  Kuldeep Yadav,  Jasprit Bumrah.

[Cricinfo]