Quo Vadis Sri Lanka Tourism, Post Covid-19?

By Srilal Miththapala

There seems to be conflicting ideas as to how tourism should be promoted in the short term, in the post Covid -19 arena. A wide range of good initiatives have been proposed from various experts. We must not get carried away by emotion, and resort to ‘crystal ball gazing’, but make our plans, based on evidence and research.

What seems to be overlooked is the need to properly understand the post Covid-19 consumer behaviour, and only focus source markets. Finally, it is the consumer who will decide, whoever he may be.

The bottom line is that the ‘tourism world’ is not going to come back to normal for quite some time. Like everything else in our lives, consumers also will respond in a ‘new normal’ framework. Hence applying our traditional marketing strategies will not necessarily work in this uncertain environment. Many may accuse me of being a pessimist. But I would like to be understood as a pragmatist.

This essay will try to analyse the consumer mind set in the post CoVid-19 scenario, and then try to develop what marketing strategies would work to match these consumer needs.

1.0 Introduction

The coronavirus crisis is having massive impacts on the tourism industry—many of which will reshape the industry’s future landscape. What actions should the stakeholders of this industry be taking today from a marketing and communications perspective? The truth is no one knows for sure. We are all in the dark. However, a business-as-usual approach is almost certainly wrong because there is nothing “usual” about this new life we’re all living and what’s happening to the tourism industry right now.

Just when the crisis seemed to be abating, we are now hit by a new variant of the virus that could have more disastrous impact. However, initial reports indicate that although it could be more infections than the Delta strain, the severity of the illness is probably less severe. It is still uncertain how different countries will respond to this new challenge.

2.0 Tourism Recovery

A recent global survey of UNWTO tourism experts on the recovery of travel shows a slight increase in confidence with 60 percent of consumers saying they expect to see a rebound in international tourism by 2022, versus just 50 percent in an earlier January 2021 survey.

In spite of this slight boost in confidence, nearly half of the respondents said that they did not expect international tourism to return to 2019 levels until 2024 or later. Similarly, 37 percent fewer respondents now believe 2023 could be the full recovery year.

In another study by Deloitte’s for Australia Tourism, there were three different scenarios presented.

Mild (best case) – international arrivals return to 2019 level by 2022.

Harsh (probable) – International tourist arrivals return to 2019 level by 2023.

Severe (worst case) – International arrivals return to 2019 level by 2025.

Boston Consulting Group predicts that travel won’t rebound to 2019 levels until 2023 or 2024. “The tourism business is driven by the great intangible of consumer confidence. Regardless of therapeutics or vaccine availability, second or third waves, or the efficacy of safety protocols, the industry won’t fully recover until travellers and service providers do so psychologically.”

Hence most studies indicate that it will be 2023 by the time tourism recovers to pre Covid-19 levels.

(it must be noted that all such studies were done before the new Omicron outbreak and how that is going to impact consumer sentiment is still to be seen.)

To expect arrival numbers to reach the pre Covid-19 of about 100,000 – 150,000 per month in the next 12 months in Sri Lanka is a pipe dream. (We have just reached 100,000 arrivals for the year, only about 7% of pre Covid-19 days)

Hence, its high time that stakeholders accept that full recovery of tourism is going to be another 12-18 months away.

Tourism professionals should take cognisance of this, and plan for it. They should adjust their strategies, accordingly, to survive and make the best of the situation in the short term. This does not mean that there will be no tourism in 2021. Certainly, there will be, and what will follow in this essay, is to try and understand the consumer mind-set of these travellers, who would venture out in spite of certain uncertainties.

(TTRW: MADRID, 2 December 2021: One out of five destinations continue to have their borders completely closed as new surges of Covid-19 impact the restart of international tourism, while the WHO declaration identifying Omicron as a variant of concern will prompt additional restrictions.

The latest UNWTO research shows that still 98% of all destinations have some travel restrictions in place.)

3.0 Marketing in the short term after Covid-19

It is needless to say that under such circumstances where survival would be the focus, positioning and branding will have to take a back seat. But that does not mean to say that planning should stop. The time could be spent by all stakeholders to properly develop a positioning for the country and to ‘extract out’ what our real USP is. At a recent webinar I heard suggestions for a whole range of ‘unique propositions’ from cultural pageants, wildlife, nature, environment, food, wellness, ‘experience,’ etc. (there is a misnomer in considering ‘experience’ as a category. It is true that most tourists pay great emphasis on experience. But the ‘experience’ should cut across every category, be it wild life, wellness or food).

Obviously, Sri Lanka as a destination cannot be ‘everything for everyone’. Sometimes I think this blessing of a range of natural attractions, is Sri Lanka tourism’s problem. We have too much! Because we are blessed with a plethora of natural beauty and attractions, it’s easy to be carried away, and try to promote everything. It is my humble opinion that even launching the muchtalked- about Global Campaign is not advisable at this time. It is true that we have waited a long time for this. But is the market ready for it at this juncture?

The need of the hour is a short-term push marketing initiative, to ‘push’ the product and service attributes of Sri Lanka that will appeal to the prospective travellers in this uncertain market environment. The ‘pull’ marketing strategy, whereby we reach out to travellers with our brand attributes and unique propositions to create new customers, should follow thereafter, once some form of proper and consistent normalcy has arrived.

So the priority in the short term is the need for a strong communication programme to reach out to the smaller, specific segments of consumers who would consider traveling in next 12-18 months.

The ‘tourism cake’ has shrunk. And everyone (all tourism destinations) are trying to get a share.

So how does Sri Lanka reach out and get a bigger share of this cake?

4.0 The need for evidence-based decision-making.

SL tourism has never given too much prominence to research and evidence-based decision-making. I guess it is no surprise when the leadership of the whole country depends on soothsayers and astrologers and quack–brewed concoctions to rid the CoVid19 virus, while the sane voices of the professionals are given a deaf ear.

But then again tourism is such an interesting subject that everyone from streetside vendors to desk-based government bureaucrats and inexperienced and clueless ministers, are experts on the subject. Even tourism professionals tend to lean on their old experiences and emotions, rather than, on good research. The need for a private -public sector partnered tourism research unit has been talked about ad nauseam. (I myself have presented many proposals for such an initiative over the past years.)

The crying need of the hour (and of course in the long term as well) is to have good reliable feedback about the tourism market. Would it be difficult to interview the few tourists who are coming to Sri Lanka at the airport? Why did they decide to travel? Why did they choose Sri Lanka? Were they satisfied with their stay?, etc.

Such simple questions will give feedack which will be so useful to tweak our offering and to be more focused on our future promotional efforts. The importance should be on the return on every dollar spent on promotion in these difficult times, and not on the value of the promotion.

5.0 Short Term ‘Push’ Marketing –

Segmentation

In trying to develop such a communication plan, (I use the word plan and not strategy since it is short term oriented) the first focus should be on the tourism consumer. One way to segment the traveller would be based on mind-set.

5.1 The Potential

travellers.

The possible consumer segments in the immediate post-Covid-19 era and their general characteristics could be as follows-

 ‘Devil may care’ traveller

The impetuous, young, adventurous risk takers. Not concerned about pandemic. Possibly with limited financial resources. (The conventional backpackers would also fall into this category but their monetary standing, post- CoVid-19 may be wanting)

 ‘Tread carefully’‘ traveller

Earns to travel. Will check all pros and cons on social media and other media channels and make careful decisions about travelling. Possibly young/middle aged, well-educated with adequate disposable income.



‘Wait and See’ traveller

Ultra-safety conscious and anxious about travelling. Possibly middle aged or Senior citizens, families with young children. Adequate financial resources.

It is evident that the segment who would travel under current prevailing circumstances would be predominately the ‘Devil-may-care’ Traveller, and to a lesser degree the ‘Tread carefully’ traveller segment. It will be quite a while before the ‘Wait and see’ traveller ventures out, and therefore there is no point in spending resources in engaging that category.

Hence it is not rocket science to conclude that a short term push marketing initiative must be specifically targeted at these two segments.

5.2 The Generic Consumer segments (Generational profiling)

The usually accepted generic consumer demographic segments are-

 Silent Generation -Born 1925-1945; Current Ave. age 80’s- Small size

= Hard working

=Conservative

= Healthy, and most educated

= Wealthiest generation

 Baby Boomers – Born 1945-1960; Current Ave. age 70’s-Medium size

= Larger families

= Non traditional

= Physically fit

= Wealthy

= Leisure activities

 Generation X –Born 1960-1980; Current Ave. age 50’s-Large size

= Enjoy creative input and resourceful

= Embrace technology and social media

= Strong emphasis on family time and work-life balance

= Hard working

= Financially well off

= Comfortable with technology

 Generation Y (Millennials)-Born 1980-1990; Current Ave. age 30’s-Large size

= Diverse

= Impatient

= Creative

= Multi-taskers

= Internet and social media part of their lives

= Reasonably wealthy

 Generation Z – Born 1990-present; Current Ave. age< 30’s- Medium size

= Self-reliant

= Risk takers

= Can be suspicious of larger corporations

= Not too brand loyal

= Short span of interest

=Fully ‘wired’ almost always

= Reliant on social media platforms

= Very concerned about environment, ethics and social wellbeing of people

Although this categorisation is predominantly relevant to developed countries, with globalisation and the spread of the internet, it is valid for most emerging countries as well.

The types of traveller identified earlier can now be matched with the generation profile characterises to help target the required segment, with an appropriate and relevant commination initiative.

This indicates that the market segments most likely to travel in the short term are

Gen Z (medium size)

Gen Y (large size)

Gen X –to a lesser extent (Large size)

6.0 Short Term ‘Push’ Marketing- The Communication

So how do you reach out to the Generation Z’s and Y’s ?

The answer is to study their inherent characteristics, and respond accordingly to what motivates them.

 The platform must necessary be digital.

 The medium must be internet based. Social media, blogs, etc. (Brochures, print media and trade fairs will not work. Even Facebook is outdated)

 The message should be based around-

= Health and Safety. ( this will be of paramount importance to all segments)

= Short and sweet, to the point

= Authentic and reliable

= Personalised, small scale programs

= Meaningful stories

= More pictures & Videos

= Highlight social and community benefits

= Ethical travel themes

= Travel for a cause

= Environment, outdoor,

= Nature and wildlife

= Off the beaten track

= Wellness and meditation/yoga

Hence once an analytical approach is taken to identify key market segments based on demographics it will be easier to target the desired travellers with a cost effective communications programme.

6.0 Conclusion

In the foregoing I have attempted to show how an analytical approach based on good consumer data, could be, designed and implemented. This is by no means a perfect model, and is presented only as an example. Professional markers will be able to design more comprehensive initiatives. The important fact is that needs to be highlighted is that we must break out of our shackles of being the ‘know-it-all s’ and reach out to good research and information to base our plans on.

Otherwise, Sri Lanka Tourism will continue to blunder around with its’ sawn off double-barrelled shot gun, spraying bullets all over, hitting only a rare target or two’.