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Purchasing Power Parity

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by Kumar David

Why is the Russian economy not crumbling despite sanctions? In an analysis carried in Quora.com French economist Jacques Sapir wrote: ‘The reason for this miscalculation is exchange rates. If you simply convert Russia’s GDP from rubbles to dollars, you see it as an economy only as large as Spain’s. However, such comparisons are spurious without adjusting for Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) which accounts for productivity and living standards, and thus per capita welfare and resource use. In fact, PPP is the preferred metric of most international institutions from the IMF to the OECD.

Note by this columnist. [A very good plate of rice and curry for a worker costs Rs 600 in Sri Lanka, that is about US$1.62 at the official exchange rate of Rs 370 to the US$. But you cannot get an equivalent meal at that price in the US; it will cost at least $5. But if you take the exchange rate as Rs 120 to the US$ you get $5 for your Rs 600. Therefore, the PPP exchange rate is Rs 120 to one US dollar, not Rs 370 to a dollar].

When you measure Russia’s, GDP based on purchasing power parity it is like Germany’s in size; Russia about $4.4 trillion versus Germany $4.6 trillion. From a small sickly-looking economy to the largest European and one of the largest in the world, this is not a comparison that can be ignored. Sapir also encourages us to ask: “What is the share of production and industry compared to services?” In his view, today’s services sector is grossly overvalued compared to industries and commodities such as oil, gas, copper and agricultural commodities. If we deduct the role of services as a proportion of the global economy, Sapir says, “Russia’s economy is much bigger than Germany’s, maybe five or six percent of the world economy”, more like Japan’s.

This makes intuitive sense. When times are tough we know it’s more valuable to provide people with the things they need, like food and energy, than intangible things like entertainment or financial services. When a company like Netflix trades at a price-to-earnings ratio three times higher than Nestle, the world’s largest food company, that is a reflection of frothy markets not reality. Netflix is a great service company, but when 800 million people in the world are undernourished Nestle offers more value. The current Ukrainian crisis helps clarify why what were regard as “archaic” parts of the modern economy, such as industry and commodities whose prices have soared this year are more important than overvalued services and “technology” companies whose values have declined recently.

The scope an economy is further distorted by ignoring global trade flows, of which Mr Sapir estimates Russia “may account for 15 per cent”. For example, while Russia is not the world’s largest oil producer, it is the largest oil exporter, surpassing even Saudi Arabia. The same is true of many other basic products, such as wheat, the world’s most important food crop, of which Russia controls about 19.5 per cent of global exports, as well as nickel (20.4 per cent), semi-finished iron (18.8 per cent), platinum (16.6 per cent) and frozen fish (11.2 per cent). Such an important position in the production of so many basic commodities means that Russia, along with several other similarly placed countries are linchpins in the global production chain. Maximum sanctions” on countries like Iran or Venezuela trying to cut Russia of world markets are phoney and likely bring about rearrangement of the global economy to the disadvantage of the West.

Much of this has been proved by the war in Ukraine. Controlling oil, gas, food and other commodities, the war of sanctions waged by the United States and its Allies in Europe and Asia has become a headache for the West. Corroborating this view JPMorgan says Russia’s economy is stronger than expected and will only suffer a shallow recession despite sanctions. The Wall Street bank said business sentiment surveys from the country “are signalling a not very deep recession in Russia and therefore imply an ‘upside risk’ to our growth forecasts.

The Russian economy has so far fared better than expected under tough sanctions and is likely to suffer only a shallow but drawn-out recession according to JPMorgan. The bank told clients last week that the country’s economy is in better shape than expected, judging from business surveys and indicators such as electricity consumption and financial flows. “The data at hand therefore does not point to an abrupt plunge in activity at least for now. GDP in the second quarter would likely be better than predicted in March”.

Purchasing power parity (PPP) is the rate of currency conversion that equalises the purchasing power of different countries by eliminating differences in price levels of essential goods. According to this concept two currencies are in equilibrium—known as the currencies being at par—when a basket of goods is priced the same in both countries taking into account the said PPP exchange rates. The importance of this point is emphasised in the Table below and has significant implications for Sri Lanka.

GDP by Purchasing Power Parity vs Nominal GDP

GDP by PPP which is based on a basket of goods is a fairer comparison between countries. In the table below Tr stands for trillions of US$.

Source: International Monetary Fund

The difference is very big in the case of countries outside the global capitalist market system. In the case of India GDP in PPP terms is an astounding 3.87 times (10.5/2.71) larger than the conventional GDP. This is a bit of a paradox because India is visibly very poor so where is all the wealth hiding? The answer lies in the huge disparity of wealth and income between the filthy rich and the dirt poor. This disparity in India is much larger than the disparity between the top 10% (or 1%) and the average person in the US.

I am not smart enough nor adequately statistically well informed to make anything but broad generalisations about Sri Lanka. My view is that; (a) in terms of living standards the true exchange rate is about Rs 120 (not Rs 370) to a US$, (b) the importance of domestic finance-capital (investment and mutual funds etc.) should be heavily discounted in policy decisions, (c) the hard-core productive sectors must be given far more attention and (d) other productive sectors like SMEs and the informal economy must be supported far more than now.

These economic factors will play out through the political dimension. Ranil Wickremesinghe (RW) has made himself a pariah in the eyes of every strand of democratic and liberal opinion, the diplomatic community in Colombo and international human and democratic rights movements. The Catholic Church is known for conservatism, when its Cardinal sees the RW and the previous government as cussed curs what more is there for anyone of us to say?

Concurrently Batalanda Ranil, his other avatar, has unleashed his military on protestors, journalists (local and foreign), reappointed alleged human rights violators in the Defence Ministry and deployed unlawful goon squads. Reactionaries in the State machine have trapped him into a spiral of violence. Ranil blundered when he played his Batalanda card for a second time; his baton wielding goons spared neither protestor nor public. Meanwhile the Mahinda clan which cut a path to the top for RW, basks in their billion-rupee (or $?) sunshine. Ranil must be criticised mercilessly till he is compelled to reverse course on democratic rights. He may then be able to chug along as a compromise president.

We the people have to exercise the utmost vigilance till Ranil is house-tamed and he has capitulated on the danger he poses to a free society. An early election will clear the decks of a lot of crap and let the people know where every political actor and party stands. After that the country can decide how it will adjust to inevitable belt-tightening (we have consumed for 70 years without producing the equivalent) and decide how to deal with our internal fiscal deficit and our foreign account indebtedness. The two are intimately interconnected; we do not have two problems but one tightly interconnected problem.

And there is the related matter of how much to relax exchange controls in order to attract FDI and capital flows. This is in the face of the 10-year Treasury Bond yield exceeding 25% at this moment and interest rates having to be correspondingly high. The IMF has demanded Central Bank independence, it has also demanded future debt sustainability and wants China on board for a haircut. These are tough issues to be addressed in this column in their own right at another time.

Ranil has decided to fly a kite about turning Sri Lanka into a Social (sic!) – he seems unaware that the accepted usage is ‘Socialist’ – Market Economy. What on earth is a “Social Economy” anyway? Does he appreciate what he is pontificating? I have been long engaged with the topic and published a paper in the Hector Abhayavardhana 80th birthday celebration volume issued in year 2000. After 22 years it still remains relevant and can be purchased from Marshal Fernando’s Ecumenical Institute on Havelock Road.



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A long-running identity conflict flares into full-blown war

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Ayatollah Ali Khamenei / President Donald Trump

It was Iran’s first spiritual head of state, the late Ayatollah Khomeini, who singled out and castigated the US as the ‘Great Satan’ in the revolutionary turmoil of the late seventies of the last century that ushered in the Islamic Republic of Iran. The core issue driving the long-running confrontation between Islamic Iran and the West has been religious identity and the seasoned observer cannot be faulted for seeing the explosive emergence of the current war in the Middle East as having the elements of a religious conflict.

The current crisis in the Middle East which was triggered off by the recent killing of Iranian spiritual head of state Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in a combined US-Israel military strike is multi-dimensional and highly complex in nature but when the history of relations between Islamic Iran and the West, read the US, is focused on the religious substratum in the conflict cannot be glossed over.

In fact it is not by accident that US President Donald Trump resorts to Biblical language when describing Iran in his denunciations of the latter. Iran, from Trump’s viewpoint, is a primordial source of ‘evil’ and if the Middle East has collapsed into a full-blown regional war today it is because of the ‘evil’ influence and doings of Iran; so runs Trump’s narrative. It is a language that stands on par with that used by the architects of the Iranian revolution in the crucial seventies decade.

In other words, it is a conflict between ‘good’ and ‘evil’ and who is ‘good’ and who is ‘evil’ in the confrontation is determined mainly by the observer’s partialities and loyalties which may not be entirely political in kind. It should not be forgotten that one of President Trump’s support bases is the Christian Right in the US and in the rest of the West and the Trump administration’s policy outlook and actions should not be divorced from the needs of this segment of supporters to be fully made sense of.

The reasons for the strong policy tie-up between Rightist administrations in the US in particular and Israel could be better comprehended when the above religious backdrop is taken into consideration. Israel is the principal actor in the ‘Old Testament’ of the Bible and is seen as ‘the Chosen People of God’ and this characterization of Israel ought to explain the partialities of the Republican Right in particular towards Israel. Among other things, this partiality accounts for the strong defence of Israel by the US.

For the purposes of clarity it needs to be mentioned here that the Bible consists of two parts, an ‘Old’ and ‘New Testament’ , and that the ‘New Testament’ or ‘Message’ embodies the teachings of Jesus Christ and the latter teachings are seen as completing and in a sense giving greater substance to the ‘Old Testament’. However, Judaism is based mainly on ‘Old Testament’ teachings and Judaism is distinct from Christianity.

To be sure, the above theological explanation does not exhaust all the reasons for the war in the Middle East but the observer will be allowing an important dimension to the war to slip past if its importance is underestimated.

It is not sufficiently realized that the Iranian Islamic Revolution of 1979 utterly changed international politics and re-wrote as it were the basic parameters that must be brought to bear in understanding it. So important is the Islamic factor in contemporary world politics that it helped define to a considerable degree the new international political order that came into existence with the collapsing of the Cold War and the disintegration of the USSR .

Since the latter developments ‘political Islam’ could be seen as a chief shaping influence of international politics. For example, it accounts considerably for the 9/11 calamity that led to the emergence of fresh polarities in world politics and ushered in political terrorism of a most destructive kind that is today disquietingly visible the world over.

It does not follow from the foregoing that Islam, correctly understood, inspires terrorism of any kind. Islam proclaims peace but some of its adherents with political aims interpret the religion in misleading, divisive ways that run contrary to the peaceful intents of the faith. This is a matter of the first importance that sincere adherents of the faith need to address.

However, there is no denying that the Islamic Revolution in Iran of 1979 has been over the past decades a great shaper of international politics and needs to be seen as such by those sections that are desirous of changing the course of the world for the better. The revolution’s importance is such that it led to US political scientist Dr. Samuel P. Huntingdon to formulate his historic thesis that a ‘Clash of Civilizations’ is upon the world currently.

If the above thesis is to be adopted in comprehending the principal trends in contemporary world politics it could be said that Islam, misleadingly interpreted by some, is pitting a good part of the Southern hemisphere against the West, which is also misleadingly seen by some, as homogeneously Christian in orientation. Whereas, the truth is otherwise. The West is not necessarily entirely synonymous with Christianity, correctly understood.

Right now, what is immediately needed in the Middle East is a ceasefire, followed up by a negotiated peace based on humanistic principles. Turning ‘Spears into Ploughshares’ is a long gestation project but the warring sides should pay considerable attention to former Iranian President Mohammad Khatami’s memorable thesis that the world needs to transition from a ‘Clash of Civilizations’ to a ‘Dialogue of Civilizations’. Hopefully, there would emerge from the main divides leaders who could courageously take up the latter challenge.

It ought to be plain to see that the current regional war in the Middle East is jeopardising the best interests of the totality of publics. Those Americans who are for peace need to not only stand up and be counted but bring pressure on the Trump administration to make peace and not continue on the present destructive course that will render the world a far more dangerous place than it is now.

In the Middle East region a durable peace could be ushered if only the just needs of all sides to the conflict are constructively considered. The Palestinians and Arabs have their needs, so does Israel. It cannot be stressed enough that unless and until the security needs of the latter are met there could be no enduring peace in the Middle East.

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The art and science of communicating with your little child

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The two input gateways of communication, sight and sound, are quite well developed at birth. In fact, the auditory system becomes functional around 24 weeks in the womb, and the normal newborn can hear quite well after birth. However, the newborn’s vision is a little blurry at birth, and the baby sees the world in shades of grey, while being able only to focus on things 20 to 30 cm (8–12 inches) away. Coincidentally, this is perhaps the exact distance to a mother’s face during breastfeeding. By 2-3 months, there are colour vision capabilities and the ability to track. By 5-8 months, there is depth perception, and by 12 months, there is adult clarity of vision.

By the time a child turns five, his or her brain has already reached 90% of its adult size. This astonishing physical growth is not just happening on its own; it is, to a certain extent, fuelled by experience, and the most vital experience a young child can have is communication with his or her parents.

Modern developmental neuroscience has shifted our understanding of how children learn. We used to think babies were passive sponges, slowly absorbing the world. We now know they are active characters from day one, constantly seeking interaction to build the architecture of their minds. This architecture is not built by apps, vocabulary flashcards, or educational television. It is built through simple, loving, back-and-forth interactions with anyone they come across, but mostly their parents.

The Foundation: Serve and Return (0–12 Months)

Communication with an infant from birth to one year of age begins long before they speak their first word. In the first year, the goal is to master a phenomenon called Serve and Return. This is a basic scenario picked up from the game of tennis. At the start of each game of a set in tennis, a player serves, and the opponent returns the serve. Just imagine a tennis match, where a baby “serves” by making a sound, making eye contact, reaching for a toy, or crying. The job of anyone in the vicinity, who very often are the parents of the baby, is to “return” the ball. If they babble, you babble back. If they point at a cat, you look and say, “Yes, that’s a furry cat!” This simple act does two things. The first is Brain Building, which creates and strengthens neural pathways in the language and emotional centres of the brain. The other is Emotional Security, a thing which teaches a baby that he or she has some help in the learning processes. The baby absorbs the notion that when he or she signals a need, his or her world will respond. This forms the basis of a secure attachment. Scientists have advocated that during this stage, people, especially the parents of a baby, should embrace what is called ‘parentese’. It is the use of a somewhat high-pitched, exaggerated voice. Research has shown that babies pay more attention to parentese than to regular adult speech, helping them to map the sounds of their native language more quickly.

The Language Explosion: Toddlers (1–3 Years)

When a child starts speaking words, the game changes considerably and quite profoundly. This period is defined by a rapid increase in his or her vocabulary and the beginning of grammar. It is very important to narrate everything. The people around, especially the parents, need to become kind of sports commentators for your life. While dressing them, one could say, “First we put on the red sock. After that, we put the other red sock on your left foot.” What we are doing by this is to give them the labels for the world they see.

It is also important to expand, but not truly correct, whatever the child says. If a toddler points to a car and says “Car!”, don’t just say “Yes.” Expand on it: “Yes, that is a big, fast, red car!” You are adding a new vocabulary and grammatical structure through a natural process. If the child says “Me go,” respond with, “Yes, you are going!” rather than correcting and saying “No…, you should say ‘I am going’.”

Toddlers love reading the same book, even one hundred times. While it may be tedious for those around the baby, it is important to realise that such repetition is vital for their learning. They are predicting what comes next, which is a core cognitive skill.

The Preschooler: Building Stories and Logic (3–5 Years)

By age three, the focus shifts from “what” to “why.” Preschoolers are beginning to understand complex emotions, time, and causality. This is the age at which it is best to ask questions which require thought and understanding. Such indirect open-ended questions would sound like “What was the best part of the park today?” or “How do you think that character in the story is feeling?

A preschooler’s world is full of “big feelings” they cannot yet manage. When they are upset because they cannot have a cookie, avoid saying “Don’t cry over nothing.” Instead, name the emotion: “Don’t cry, you can have a cookie after dinner“. This teaches them emotional literacy. Parents and others around in the home could share stories about when they were little, or make up fantasy tales together. Storytelling teaches sequential logic (beginning, middle, end) and strengthens their imagination.

The Absolute Master Class: Learning Through Play

If communication is the fuel for brain development, play is the engine. For a child under five, play is not a break from learning; play is learning. It is how they explore physics (stacking blocks), mathematics (sorting shapes), social dynamics (sharing toys), and language (pretend play). We can boost their development exponentially by weaving communication into their play.

When a child is playing with blocks, dough, or puzzles, they are building fine motor skills and spatial awareness. It is also useful to use three-dimensional words: “Can you put the blue block on top of the red one?” “The puzzle piece is next to your knee.” One could also ask them to describe the texture: “Is the dough soft or hard?

Pretend play, such as acting as a doctor, an engineer, a chef, or a superhero, is one of the most cognitively demanding things a child can do. It requires them to understand symbolic thought and to take on another person’s perspective. Join their world as a supporting character, not the director. If they are the doctor, ask, “Doctor, my teddy bear’s tummy hurts. What should I do?” This encourages them to use vocabulary relevant to the scenario and practice complex social problem-solving.

Playing with water, sand, slime, or safe food products allows children to process sensory information. This is the perfect time for descriptive vocabulary. Use contrasting words: wet/dry, hot/cold, sticky/smooth, loud/quiet.

A few special words for parents. You do not need an expensive degree or specialised toys to build your child’s brain. The most powerful tool you have is your own responsiveness. Modern science tells us that the basic recipe for a thriving child is simple: Look at them when they signal you. Respond with warmth and words. Narrate their world and Join their play.

You are not just talking to your child; you are building his or her future, even via just one conversation at a time. So, go on talking to your child and even make him or her a real-life chatterbox.

Dr B. J. C. Perera

MBBS(Cey), DCH(Cey), DCH(Eng), MD(Paediatrics), MRCP(UK), FRCP(Edin), FRCP(Lond), FRCPCH(UK), FSLCPaed, FCCP, Hony. FRCPCH(UK), Hony. FCGP(SL)

Specialist Consultant Paediatrician and Honorary Senior Fellow, Postgraduate Institute of Medicine, University of Colombo, Sri Lanka.

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Promoting our beauty and culture to the world

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Tourism is very much in the news these days and it’s certainly a good sign to see lots of foreigners checking out Sri Lanka.

With this in mind, Ruki’s Model Academy & Agency recently had a spectacular event to select Mrs. Tourism Sri Lanka in order to promote Sri Lanka in the international scene.

Nimesha Premachandra was crowned Mrs. Tourism Sri Lanka 2026.

She says she owes her success to Ruki (Rukmal Senanayake), the National Director and model trainer, and personality and advocacy trainer Tharaka Gurukanda.

Nimesha is a school teacher by profession, an actress and TV presenter by passion, and an entrepreneur by spirit.

She believes in balancing grace with purpose, and using her platform to inspire women, while promoting the beauty and culture of Sri Lanka to the world. And this is how our Chit-Chat went:

Nimesha Premachandra: Mrs. Tourism Sri Lanka 2026

01. How would you describe yourself?

I am a passionate, disciplined, and people-oriented person. I love learning, performing, and guiding others, especially young minds, through education.

02. If you could change one thing about yourself, what would it be?

I would probably try to be less self-critical and allow myself to celebrate achievements more often.

03. If you could change one thing about your family, what would it be?

Nothing major. I am grateful for my family’s love and support, which has shaped who I am today.

04. Is Mrs. Tourism Sri Lanka your very first pageant?

No. I have been part of pageants before, but Mrs. Tourism Sri Lanka is very special because it represents purpose, culture, and global representation.

05. What made you take part in this contest?

I wanted to represent Sri Lanka internationally and use this platform to promote tourism, culture, and women’s empowerment.

06. Obviously, you must be excited about participating in the grand finale, in Vietnam; any special plans for this big event?

Yes, I am extremely excited. My focus is to showcase Sri Lankan elegance, hospitality, and authenticity, while building meaningful connections with participants from around the world.

07. How do you intend promoting tourism, in Sri Lanka, during your rein?

I plan to highlight Sri Lanka’s diverse experiences in culture, heritage, wellness, nature, and local hospitality through media appearances, digital storytelling, and tourism collaborations.

08. School?

Kaluthara Balika. School life played a big role in shaping me. I actively participated in sports and performing arts, which later helped me build confidence as an actress and presenter.

09. Happiest moment?

Being crowned Mrs. Tourism Sri Lanka 2026 and seeing the pride in my family’s eyes – definitely one of my happiest moments.

10. What is your idea of perfect happiness?

Peace of mind, good health, and being surrounded by the people I love while doing work that has meaning.

11. Which living person do you most admire?

I most admire Angelina Jolie because she beautifully balances her work as an actress with meaningful humanitarian efforts. She uses her global platform to support refugees, advocate for human rights, and inspire women to be strong, compassionate, and independent.

12. Which is your most treasured possession?

My memories and experiences because they remind me how far I’ve come, and keep me grounded.

13. Your most embarrassing moment?

Like everyone, I’ve had small on-stage mishaps, but they always taught me to laugh at myself and move forward confidently.

14. Done anything daring?

Participating in pageants while balancing teaching, media work, and family life has been one of the boldest and most rewarding decisions I’ve made.

Keen to use her title to promote Sri Lanka globally

15. Your ideal vacation?

A peaceful destination surrounded by nature; somewhere I can relax, reconnect, and experience local culture.

16. What kind of music are you into?

I enjoy soft, soulful music because it helps me relax and stay inspired.

17. Favourite radio station:

I enjoy stations that blend good music with meaningful conversation and positive energy.

18. Favourite TV station:

Sri Lanka Rupavahini Corporation. It’s where it all began for me. It played a significant role in my journey as a TV presenter and helped shape my confidence and passion for media.

19 What would you like to be born as in your next life?

Someone who continues to inspire others because making a positive impact is what matters most.

20. Any major plans for the future?

I hope to expand my work in media and entrepreneurship while continuing my role as an educator and using my title to promote Sri Lanka globally.

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