Saturday 9th May, 2026

An exchange of fire between the US and Iran in the Strait of Hormuz sent shockwaves across the world yesterday, and oil prices soared as a result. Thankfully, it was a brief clash. The US has claimed that it foiled Iranian attacks on three of its ships. Iran has said it came under unprovoked attacks. Ceasefires in military conflicts are never free from such shocks, and care needs to be exercised to prevent skirmishes from spiraling out of control. The international community has a pivotal role to play in ensuring that the ceasefire in West Asia lasts, and negotiations continue.

The US-Iran peace negotiations have been stuck in the Hormuz chokepoint, and they will have to progress, leading to a durable truce lest the region should face a protracted conflict. There is nary a country that has not been affected by the West Asia conflict either directly or indirectly.

About 1,500-2,000 ships and 20,000 seafarers are reportedly stranded in and around the Hormuz Strait, and this a very serious issue that the world cannot ignore. The US sought to make a naval intervention to escort commercial vessels through the chokepoint, but subsequently paused its “Project Freedom”, which would have jeopardised the fragile ceasefire.

However, so many ships and their crews must not be kept waiting indefinitely in a sea passage, and international navigation via the Hormuz Strait must resume fast but without any US military intervention, which will only make matters worse.

Many economies are reeling the world over, especially in the Global South, owing to the closure of the Hormuz Strait, through which about 20 percent of global oil supplies and about 30 percent of global fertiliser supplies pass. The impact of the destruction of oil assets in Iran and its neighbours will be felt for decades to come. Even if hostilities cease, it will not be possible to repair the damaged assets any time soon.

The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) has repeatedly warned that prolonged disruption of fertiliser shipments through the Strait of Hormuz could trigger serious global food shortages, food inflation and reduced crop yields, as we pointed out in a previous comment. FAO officials have said that the crisis threatens global agrifood systems because up to 30–45% of internationally traded fertilisers and large volumes of energy supplies move through the strait. This alone is proof of the enormity of the problem the conflict has created for the world.

The general consensus is that a way out is to ensure that the ongoing ceasefire and negotiations create conditions for the return of the status quo ante in the Hormuz Strait soon. However, that will be possible only if both the US and Iran soften their stands. Iran has asked the US to end its naval blockade, and this can be considered a fair demand, and if the US complies, Iran will be compelled to reopen the Hormuz chokepoint, paving the way for further de-escalation and helping bring down oil and fertiliser prices. That alone may not help resolve the conflict, which is far more complex than it looks, but the resumption of international navigation through the Hormuz Strait will give a tremendous boost to the peace process, which is said to be in the doldrums, with both sides resorting to brinkmanship.

Friday 8th May, 2026

Pity the land that needs heroes, Brecht has famously said. Some countries have gone to the extent of elevating political greenhorns to positions of power, expecting them to play messianic roles, simply because of their popularity in the tinsel world and adeptness at uttering Goebbelsian lies and making Machiavellian promises.

Tamil Nadu voted overwhelmingly for Vijay (Joseph Vijay) recently. However, his party, the Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) could not secure an outright majority, and his political journey has had a bumpy start. He has been left with no alternative but to resort to political horse trading to form a coalition government. The Congress has reportedly made overtures to the TVK, and a political marriage of convenience is said to be likely.

The problem with most actors-turned-politicians in this region is that they tend to consider real world politics as a mere extension of their celluloid reality, and, worse, act accordingly. True, there are some exceptions, but they only prove the rule.

We could have ignored Vijay’s theatrics and campaign slogans, and considered them problems confined to Tamil Nadu, if not for their implications for Sri Lanka. Vijay obviously lacks experience to navigate complex political and economic issues. Tamil Nadu actors’ stunts in films defy the laws of physics and are hugely entertaining, but they are of no use in the real world vis-à-vis economic and political challenges. Among Vijay’s campaign promises that helped him garner enough popular support to win the recent election are a 2,500-rupee monthly allowance for women heads of households, six free cylinders of LPG a year for families, one sovereign gold ring each for all newborns, a 15,000-rupee education assistance allowance for mothers of schoolchildren, a 4,000-rupee monthly allowance for unemployed graduates, Rs. 5 lakh as new start-up loans, and Rs 25 lakh for biz launch loans. These promises, if ever implemented, will cost Tamil Nadu more than 50% of its annual tax revenue, according to Indian media reports. So, all signs are that most of them will go unfulfilled, and Vijay and TVK will have their work cut out to retain popular support. Trouble for Sri Lanka is bound to begin when they struggle to shore up their approval ratings.

Sri Lanka is the last resort of all failed Tamil Nadu politicians, as it were. Vijay has already called for ‘retrieving’ Katchatheevu. He is emulating his predecessors. He is likely to intensify his Katchatheevu campaign and flog the fishermen’s issue harder when the going gets tough for him so as to divert public attention from burning problems. The BJP will do everything in its power to undermine the TVK and recover lost ground in Tamil Nadu, but Vijay’s interests and those of the BJP overlap where Katchatheevu, the delayed Provincial Council elections, devolution, ethnic issues in Sri Lanka, and illegal fishing are concerned.

The JVP’s India policy has undergone a sea change over the years. Unlike in the past, when it dismissed India’s concerns about Sri Lankan issues as intentions of domination, the JVP is today subservient to India. The JVP-led government will therefore have to address the issues raised by the BJP and the TVK, devolution being prominent among them.

The JVP made short work of one Vijay in the late 1980s, as it considered him an obstacle in its path.It gunned down Vijaya (or Wijaya) Kumaratunga, popularly known as Vijay, because he led the political forces supportive of devolution and the Provincial Council system. About 38 years on, it has another Vijay to contend with, albeit in India, and the issues which it sought to resolve by killing Vijay have not gone away. The JVP-led government is under Indian pressure to implement the 13th Amendment fully and hold the much-delayed PC polls.

There have been various analyses of Vijay’s victory in Tamil Nadu and its implications for Sri Lanka. Some analysts have stressed the need for the JVP-NPP government to view challenges arising from the rise of the TVK as opportunities and strategise to enlist the support of Tamil Nadu as a development partner. This no doubt should be on Sri Lanka’s agenda. However, prudence demands that while being cautiously optimistic, Sri Lanka remain mindful of the possibility of having to deal with a more hostile Tamil Nadu under Vijay’s leadership and find ways and means of dealing with such an eventuality.

Thursday 7th May, 2026

A government move to assign some Clean Sri Lanka representatives to Divisional Secretariats countrywide as coordinators has run into stiff resistance. The Sri Lanka Association of Divisional Secretaries and Assistant Divisional Secretaries (SLADA) has written to the Secretary to the President, urging the government to revoke its decision and warning that the proposed move will seriously undermine the independence of the public service.

Opposition Leader Sajith Premadasa, too, has taken exception to the government plan to assign some JVP cadres to Divisional Secretariats as Clean Sri Lanka coordinators. He told the media yesterday the JVP was trying to infiltrate the state service, and the Opposition would oppose that move tooth and nail.

The SLADA has argued that Sri Lanka already has a long-established administrative framework to ensure effective public service delivery, spanning ministries, departments, provincial councils, district and divisional secretariats down to Grama Niladhari divisions. This system is supported by internal audit units, the National Audit Office, and coordination committees at divisional, district and national levels, which oversee and review programme implementation. While acknowledging some isolated instances of politically influenced conduct of a small number of officials, the SLADA has stressed that the overall administrative structure has functioned as an independent, professional system and its independence must not be compromised.

The government decision to appoint Clean Sri Lanka representatives to Divisional Secretariats should also be viewed against the backdrop of the JVP’s overall strategy to create conditions for establishing what is described in some quarters as a parallel state. JVP stalwart, K. D. Lalkantha, created quite a stir in 2024 by claiming that under a JVP-NPP government legislative and judicial powers would be devolved to villages.

The JVP/NPP is working according to a plan to expand its powerbase through the Constituency Councils or Kottasha Sabha, which remind us of the Citizen Committees or Janatha Committees (JCs) set up by the SLFP-led United Front government (1970-77) purportedly to bring administration closer to the people. The JCs were established in government departments, public corporations, and local administrative units to monitor state administration, advise public officers, help eliminate corruption, delays and waste, encourage public participation in governance and facilitate the implementation of development initiatives. But, in reality, they became highly politicised, with their members undermining the authority of state officials. They clashed with administrators, trade unions and ended up as mere appendages of the government. They were also responsible for the downfall of the UF government. The JVP/NPP is apparently repeating that disastrous experiment.

Old habits are said to die hard. The JVP is accused of using the Clean Sri Lanka programme to infiltrate vital state institutions in a bid to arrogate to itself the powers of the state instead of exercising them through the NPP government for five years. This is something it failed to achieve through extra-parliamentary means for about six decades. Speaking at a recent May Day rally, JVP General Secretary Tilvin Silva stated that the JVP-led government would remain in power indefinitely. Some other JVP bigwigs have said they would not let go of power. Given the JVP’s violent past, such utterances cannot be dismissed as mere rhetoric.

It is possible that in a bid to perpetuate its hold on power, the JVP is trying to emulate the Soviet model and set up its cells in state institutions like those established by the Communist party in the USSR to function as its “eyes and ears”. The Soviet system functioned on the principle that the party was the “leading and guiding force” of society. It has been reported that by the late Soviet period, there were hundreds of thousands of such primary organisations, covering nearly every sphere of public life. Those cells did not survive the collapse of the USSR.

Ordinary people are not well disposed towards the state service, characterised by inordinate delays, malpractices and arrogance, and it needs a radical shake-up. What needs to be done is to depoliticise and revitalise the public service, and therefore the ongoing efforts to politicise it further must be defeated. One cannot but endorse the SLADA’s demand that the government revoke its decision to infiltrate the Divisional Secretariats, allowing the existing administrative mechanisms to handle programme implementation lest such precedent should have long-term adverse implications for the independence of the public service.