Post-Aragalaya look at security and related developments

Colonel Nalin Herath

Referring to Israel’s war on Gaza, Defence Ministry Spokesman Colonel Nalin Herath speculated about further escalation though he refrained from commenting on the Jewish State’s relentless attacks in Lebanon and Iranian missile barrages directed at Israel. The Middle East is on the brink of a regional conflict, Herath declared, in an interview with Supreme TV. Since the interview, the war has taken a new turn with Israeli attacks on Lebanon-based UN peacekeepers causing injuries to personnel, including two Sri Lankan military personnel serving there and the killing of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar during a chance encounter between Israeli troops and Hamas. Like LTTE leader Velupillai Prabhakaran, Sinwar, the alleged mastermind of the large-scale Oct. 07 Hamas invasion of southern Israel, the first such invasion of the Jewish territory since the first Arab-Israel war in 1948. Those who compared Sri Lanka’s war against the LTTE and the ongoing war should be able to differentiate the conflicts.

By Shamindra Ferdinando

The urgent need for a comprehensive examination of daunting political-economic-security-social challenges cannot be overestimated. Bankrupt Sri Lanka is at a crossroads as the Jathika Jana Balawegaya (JJB) seeks to consolidate its position with a convincing victory at the parliamentary election scheduled to be conducted in three weeks. Although its triumph is apparently a foregone conclusion, the Janatha Vimukthi Peremuna (JVP)-led JJB, however, faces formidable domestic and external challenges.

With the former main Opposition party Samagi Jana Balawegaya (SJB) and the former ruling party, the Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP, as well as the UNP-backed New Democratic Front (NDF) in disarray, President Anura Kumara Dissanayake’s JJB enjoys a clear advantage in such a scenario.

Regardless of putting up a brave patriotic face, the new party, Sarvajana Balaya does not appear to stand a chance at its first parliamentary election. Going by past experience, the local voters usually go with the trend set by the presidential election. To make matters worse, the opposition is badly split among the SJB, NDF and the SLPP. The SLPP that secured 145 seats, including 17 National List slots at the last parliamentary election, in August 2020, can be reduced to just one NL seat at the forthcoming election. The decision on the part of the Rajapaksas to field generally unproven Namal Rajapaksa on the SLPP NL meant that they realized the grave danger of the party being wiped out. Therefore, the Sarvajana Balaya may find the current ground situation intimidating, though several former SLPP parliamentarians, who have always watched over the country’s national interests, back entrepreneur Dilith Jayaweera’s outfit. However, since the presidential election, Sarvajana Balaya has lost Wimal Weerawansa and Gevindu Cumaratunga.

Defence Ministry spokesman and Director General of the Institute of National Security Studies (INSS) Colonel Nalin Herath recently discussed post-Aragalaya security challenges at different levels, taking into consideration both traditional and non-traditional threats.

During the discussion with Mariella Vandort on ‘Spotlight’ on Supreme TV, the Armoured Corps officer covered related issues, such as ex-military men joining the Russian and Ukrainian militaries, foreign relations where he underscored the need for, what he called, a middle-path, and Sri Lanka’s triumph over separatist Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE), in May 2009 ,against grave doubts expressed by so-called experts.

At the onset, Colonel Herath explained how developments largely depends on sustainable security in an ever-changing globalized world and the responsibility on the part of political and military leaderships to protect the public. Emphasizing the need to neutralize and address both traditional and non-traditional threats, Colonel Herath made reference to the eradication of terrorism.

However, the interviewer failed to take up the origins of separatist terrorism in the ’80s and New Delhi’s role in the terror project that resulted in the formation of half a dozen terrorist groups.

Except the LTTE, the other groups joined the political mainstream during the late Ranasinghe Premadasa’s presidency (1990-1993). Against the backdrop of Anura Kumara Dissanayake, a member of the once-proscribed JVP becoming the President last month, the discussion should have covered the two southern insurgencies in 1971 and 1987-1990. Unfortunately, quite a significant development in our history didn’t receive the required attention. May be it was too dicey a topic to tackle under the current circumstances, especially for a serving military officer. In fact, the emergence of the JJB in mid-2019, a few months before the Presidential Election that was won by wartime Defence Secretary Gotabaya Rajapaksa, could have been examined, leaving out the JVP’s horrid past.

The Sri Lanka Army can quite rightly be proud of its record-defeating two insurgencies and winning a conventional war that the Western powers asserted was impossible. Of course, the Navy and Air Force, as well as police, including its Special Task Force, made an immense contribution, and the annihilation of the enemy (LTTE) couldn’t have been achieved if not for President Mahinda Rajapaksa’s steadfast leadership.

Unforgettable situation report

During the course of the interview, Colonel Herath disclosed that he had been with the 68.1 Brigade assigned to the 53 Division deployed at Vellamullivaikkal, on the Vanni east front, where the combined forces brought the war to a successful end. A smiling MoD spokesman recalled how he signed the situation report that dealt with the death of LTTE leader Velupillai Prabhakaran at 9.32 am on May 19, 2009.

Troops recovered Prabhakaran’s body that morning, the day after the conclusion of the Vanni offensive. Colonel Herath said the vast majority appreciated the successful war effort, though others quite conveniently forgot the sacrifices made by the military.

Responding to another query, the armoured corps officer recalled two incidents in the Vanni theatre where he survived death. Both incidents had been in the ’90s, one in Kilinochchi and the other at Oddusuddan off Nedunkerni, when the LTTE fired at the SLA escorting then de facto Defence Minister Anuruddha Ratwatte.

Incidentally, the writer had been among a group of journalists on their way to cover Minister Ratwatte’s visit to Oddusudan when the LTTE fired mortars. The buffel armoured personnel carrier carrying us ended up in a paddy field in the chaos and for about 30 minutes we were stuck there.

Although a conventional military threat appears to be unlikely, the 2019 Easter Sunday carnage underscores the responsibility on the part of the government to remain alert. Although Vandort made reference to Easter Sunday attacks as in emergency situations such as floods and Covid-19, yet the only post-war incident that grabbed international attention was not discussed. Nearly 50 foreigners perished in coordinated attacks on churches and five-star hotels that exposed the severe shortcomings in the political and military leaderships.

In the context of traditional and non-traditional threats, how do we categorize the unprecedented Easter Sunday bombings or Aragalaya (March –July 2022) that forced the democratically elected President out of Office. That removal, for whatever the reasons which contributed to public anger, cannot justify unconstitutional removal, while the armed forces and police just looked on. Perhaps the Defence Ministry-funded think tank INSS should thoroughly examine Aragalaya with a fine tooth comb. Their findings can be at least shared among the military top brass, State Intelligence Service (SIS), Directorate of Military Intelligence (DMI) and the IGP. The writer, however, understands the dilemma the armed forces are in as the JVP/JJB had been one of the parties directly involved in Aragalaya and, in fact, the only party accused of trying to take control of Parliament by physically storming it, using young activists. The JVP/JJB never denied that accusation. In fact, that accusation or declaration cannot be denied as senior party men were on record urging the people to overrun Parliament.

The SLA had no option but to use brute force to neutralize the serious threat to Parliament in July 2022, days before Gotabaya Rajapaksa gave up office.

Now, the JJB is on the verge of a historic parliamentary election victory. Veteran politician Mahinda Yapa Abeywardena, who had been the Speaker at the time of the Aragalaya, confirmed an external hand in the ouster of President Gotabaya Rajapaksa is in the National List of the NDF. Abeywardena is fifth on that list, headed by former Premier and leader of the Mahajana Eksath Peramuna (MEP) Dinesh Gunawardena. Although Abeywardena conveniently refrained from disclosing the name of the external party involved, the then lawmakers Wimal Weewawansa and retired Rear Admiral Sarath Weerasekera, as well as award-winning writer Sena Thoradeniya, alleged a clear US role in Aragalaya. On behalf of the US, its Ambassador here Julie Chung denied the accusation. However, the whole world knows that former Secretary of State John Kerry crowed publicly about how Washington spent millions of dollars for a regime change operation here in 2015 that ousted Mahinda Rajapaksa, along with similar covert acts to topple governments in several other countries.

No less a person than former President Ranil Wickremesinghe, as well as his predecessor Gotabaya Rajapaksa, too, alleged external interference. The incumbent government owed the public an explanation regarding the status of the investigations into the massive destruction caused by Aragalaya.

Those contesting on the NDF ticket backed Ranil Wickremesinghe at the recently concluded Presidential Election. It was the third defeat Wickremesinghe suffered at a presidential election, the first at the hands of Chandrika Bandaranaike Kumaratunga in 1999, followed by 2005. Mahinda Rajapaksa won the 2005 contest by less than 200,000 votes due to the LTTE and TNA (Tamil National Alliance) ordering the northern voters to boycott that election.

Impact of economic crisis on armed forces

Colonel Herath also discussed the requirement to maintain the military strength even during the economic crises and why sufficient investment of public funds is essential. The Colonel didn’t mince his words when he emphasized such investments shouldn’t be considered a waste of money, under any circumstances. Let us hope the executive and the legislature, in unison, accept the need for a robust military. Colonel Herath stressed the need to enhance fighting capability. Over 15 years after the conclusion of the war, and the retirement of thousands of fighting men, the military must take every possible measure to retain their fighting capability.

Colonel Herath placed the current strength of the SLA at 150,000 down from 205,000 at the time of Sri Lanka’s triumph over terrorism. Perhaps, the new government should explain whether it intends to carry out the Wickremesinghe-Rajapaksa government decision to reduce the SLA strength to 100,000 by 2030.

Amidst the continuing economic difficulties that made expected investments on armed forces impossible, foreign powers have stepped in. The recent visit undertaken by Adm. Steve Koehler, commander, U.S. Pacific Fleet, to Colombo, and the transfer of Beechcraft King Air 360ER aircraft underscored the US commitment to strengthening partnerships in the Indo-Pacific and advancing, what the superpower called, a shared vision for peace and stability by upholding the rules based international order.

The US and its allies, including India, have invested in the Sri Lankan armed forces. The China Bay-based No 03 Maritime Squadron consists of dedicated US and Indian maritime surveillance aircraft. The squadron is expected to take delivery of an ex-Australian Air Force Beech 350 King Air patrol aircraft before the end of this month. The US and its allies seem to be inclined to go ahead with their overall strategy vis a vis Sri Lanka, adopted during Wickremesinghe’s presidency. The US decision to go ahead with the handing over of the fourth US Coastguard Cutter to Sri Lanka, gratis, in the coming year, further emphasized their strategy. All that we can say to the new government is beware of Greeks bearing gifts.

Colonel Herath explained the measures taken by the previous government to address the contentious issue of Sri Lankans on the Russia-Ukraine front. According to him, there had been 470 to 500 officers and men involved on both sides and substantial progress was made during discussions in Moscow and with the Russian Embassy in Colombo. It would be pertinent to mention that the Russia-Ukraine conflict is actually a war between the Russian Federation and the West in Ukraine.

Russian Ambassador to Colombo Levan Dzhagaryan, during a recent conversation with this writer, stressed how the combined West utilized the Ukrainian conflict/territory to achieve their objective of bringing NATO to Russia’s border if not for the counter measures now being implemented by Moscow.

Unfortunately, India, the beneficiary in the Ukraine-Russia war as a result of a massive increase in cheap crude oil purchases since 2022, is trapped in the US strategy.

India’s decision not to sign a Joint Letter supporting the UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres in the wake of the recent declaration by the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Israel designating the Head of the premier world body as “persona non grata”, underscored New Delhi’s dilemma. Among others who refrained from backing Chilean coordinated efforts were the US along with its close allies the UK, Japan and South Korea, considered by some to be its lap dogs.

There is no other way to explain India backing Ukrainian and Israeli war efforts as discussed by the international media. But, the US, British and Australian reactions to the continuing diplomatic row between India and Canada over the killing of Sikh activist and naturalized Canadian citizen Hardee Singh Nijjar in British Columbia last year is a grim reminder of Western double standards.

Canadian Premier Justin Trudeau’s Oct. 15 declaration on the conduct of India and its representatives based in Canada underscored Ottawa’s stand that it wouldn’t under any circumstances accept the Modi government’s actions. The Canadian declaration that Indian High Commissioner Sanjay Kumar Verma had a hand in the Nijjar affair caused irreparable damage to Canada –India relations.

Perhaps Canada, having alleged Sri Lanka committed genocide during war against Tamil separatism, should inquire how many ex-Sri Lankan terrorists received Canadian citizenship. Similarly, many wanted for terrorism in India are Canadian passport holders now.

Post-Aragalaya development

The moving of the Court of Appeal against the Defence Ministry decision to collect weapons issued for personal protection under license to selected persons is an eye-opener. The petition underscores the failure on the part of the then government and the security establishment to provide security during Aragalaya when law and order simply disintegrated.

Close on the heels of Anura Kumara Dissanayake’s victory at the Sept. 21 Presidential Election, the Defence Ministry ordered those having licensed weapons and ammunition to hand them over to the Commercial Explosive Firearms and Ammunition Procurement Unit (CEFAP) at Sri Lanka Navy camp, in Welisara, before Nov. 07, this year.

The Defence Ministry declared that this order did not apply for weapons used for the protection of property/crop and sports activities.

H.D. Navinthaka de Silva, CEO of Avenra Hotel Group, in his petition, argued that the Defence Ministry decision posed a significant risk to his safety.

The Secretary of the Ministry of Defence, the Director of the State Intelligence Service, and the Acting Inspector General of Police have been named as respondents in the case. Filed through Attorney-at-Law Sanath Wijayawardena, the petition claimed that Navinthaka de Silva obtained licensed firearms from the Ministry of Defence around 2012 or 2013 due to serious personal threats.

The petitioner emphasized that his businesses, including hotels, suffered considerable damages during recent political unrest, compounding his security concerns.

Declaring that his plea for reconsidering the Defence Ministry decision pertaining to him, petitioner has requested the Court of Appeal to issue a writ order invalidating the Defence Ministry’s order. The petitioner also sought an interim injunction be issued suspending the implementation of the directive until a final decision is reached after the hearing of his case.

Grandeeza, one of the hotels owned by the Avenra Hotel Group situated at Katunayake, on the main Colombo-Negombo road, and just 15 minutes walking distance from the Katunayake airbase, was set on fire and looted in broad daylight. The same fate befell two other hotels owned by them in the Negombo division. The destruction caused by Aragalaya had never been properly established and none of those responsible was brought before a court of law though some progress was made in respect of MP Atukorale’s killing in May 2022.

The operation carried out by Aragalaya was so meticulously planned that perhaps they would have gone ahead with countrywide attacks even if Temple Trees didn’t make the foolish decision to unleash SLPP goons on the Galle Face protesters. As that was used as the pretext to launch violence against the then SLPP government politicians and their friends and relatives with meticulous intelligence from the evening of May 09, 2022, leaving properties looted and torched across the country.

The Avenra CEO’s petition reminds the government of its fundamental responsibility to take all possible measures to protect citizens.