Polls, ambitions, and reality

Tuesday 18th June, 2024

SLPP MP and business leader, Dhammika Perera, is reported to have said, nay reiterated, that he will run for President if the SLPP can muster 51% of the votes to be cast. He says he has a plan to develop the country fast, and the SLPP has asked him to fulfil 10 conditions for it to consider fielding him as its presidential candidate, according to a newspaper report published yesterday.

As for recovering lost ground in the foreseeable future to the extent of being able to win another election, presidential or otherwise, the SLPP has the same chances as a snowflake in hell. It cannot even win co-operative society elections. The question is whether it would ever field anyone other than a member of the Rajapaksa family as its presidential candidate if it succeeded in securing enough popular support to contest an election confidently.

The SLPP is a party of the Rajapaksas by the Rajapaksas for the Rajapaksas. It chose to elevate Ranil Wickremesinghe to the presidency because its leaders, who were heading for the hills as fast as their legs could carry them, at the height of the 2022 popular uprising, were left with no other way of ensuring their safety and retaining their grip on power. Any port in a storm, as they say. They now regret having done so as can be seen from their hostility towards President Wickremesinghe. They are not likely to promote any outsider ever again.

It is being argued in some quarters that the SLPP may consider fielding an outsider at the upcoming presidential election because it is convinced that its chances of winning are zero. But there is the possibility of it skipping the presidential election for two reasons; it does not want to suffer a humiliating defeat ahead of the next general election and, above all, the candidate it fields is likely to win over its rank and file. It may be recalled that the UNP fielded Sajith Premadasa as its presidential candidate in 2019; he lost but he emerged powerful in the UNP, broke away with a large number of prominent UNPers and became the Opposition Leader, reducing the UNP to a single National List seat. So, if MP Perera is waiting until the SLPP nominates him as its presidential candidate, it may be a case of waiting for Godot.

It is puzzling why even those who are conversant with statistics, election laws and the electoral system, keep saying that a candidate has to obtain at least 51% of the valid votes to secure the presidency. It may be recalled that Ranasinghe Premadasa and Mahinda Rajapaksa polled only 50.4% and 50.3% of the votes in 1988 and 2005, respectively, to win the presidency.

A candidate who polls more than 50% of the votes can bag the presidency straightaway, but that is not a necessary condition for winning a presidential election. True, since 1982, all elected Presidents have crossed the halfway mark, but there could arise situations where no presidential candidate polls more than 50% of the votes, causing the second and third preferences to be counted, and the candidate who obtains the highest number of votes is declared the winner even if he or she fails to secure more than 50% of votes.

Given the many splits in the anti-government vote, in the South, and the possibility of the upcoming presidential election becoming a three-cornered contest, chances are that no candidate will be able to secure more than 50% of votes to win the presidency. The prospective presidential candidates are aware of this possibility if their desperate efforts to woo the Tamil votes in the North and the East are any indication. They are running around like headless chickens in those parts of the country, making numerous promises, and distributing handouts in a bid to garner votes. The SLFP (Maithripala faction) is also reported to have launched what is described as its presidential election campaign. The entry of more candidates will change the dynamics of the presidential contest drastically and make the headless chickens run around even faster.