The College of Cardinals will gather beneath Michelangelo’s frescoed ceiling at the Sistine Chapel on Wednesday, tasked with the solemn duty of choosing a successor to Pope Francis, who passed away a fortnight ago. While papal conclaves can stretch over days, recent history suggests the white smoke may rise swiftly – possibly before the bells ring across Colombo for the Sunday mass.

The last two conclaves – in 2005 and 2013 – which elected Pope Benedict XVI and Pope Francis, respectively, wrapped up within 48 hours. In fact, none of the past 10 conclaves have lasted more than five days, a telling precedent that hints at a brisk decision this time as well.

Speculation, as always, is running wild. Names of prominent Cardinals have been floated, their odds debated in hushed corners of seminaries and newsrooms alike. Yet, papal history teaches us caution: As the popular saying goes. ‘he who enters the conclave as Pope, exits a Cardinal’.

Consider Cardinal Giuseppe Siri, the Archbishop of Genoa. In 1958, at just 52, he was the leading contender to succeed Pius XII. Yet, the College of Cardinals swayed toward the elderly Angelo Roncalli, who emerged as Pope John XXIII. Siri’s papal hopes would flicker again in 1963 and in both 1978 conclaves – only to be extinguished each time.

Before the voting begins, the Cardinals will reflect on the Church’s present needs. And when the white smoke spirals into the sky and the words ‘Habemus Papam’ echo around St. Peter’s square, it may be a familiar figure or a complete outsider who steps onto that balcony. Such was the case in October 1978, when a little known Polish cardinal Karol Wojtyła, became John Paul II. Or in 2013, when the retired Jesuit Archbishop from Buenos Aires was called back into service as Pope Francis.

Francis was a reformer. He shunned opulence for humility, promoted mercy over judgment and stirred theological waters by welcoming divorcees to communion and expanding roles for women in the Vatican. When a reporter asked him for a comment on women’s wider role at Vatican, the Pope said tongue in cheek, ‘they are certainly managing the finances better than men.’

Of the 135 Cardinals eligible to vote this week, 108 were appointed by Francis himself, hailing from 71 nations – a testament to his global vision. Many are first-time voters, but not Sri Lanka’s Malcolm Cardinal Ranjith, who took part in the 2013 conclave that elected Francis with an overwhelming majority.

Given the Francis-heavy composition of the electors, it’s tempting to predict a like-minded successor – someone who’ll carry the torch of reform. But should the College of Cardinals feel the need for a bridge-builder between traditionalists and progressives, a seasoned elder could be chosen for a short, stabilising papacy. And we may well know his name before Sunday.

by Rex Clementine