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New IPS report on ‘Elasticity Estimates for Cigarettes in Sri Lanka’

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• New study finds that increasing taxes on cigarettes will have twin advantages of reducing cigarette consumption and increasing government revenue.

• Calculated tax and price elasticities of demand for cigarettes show that smokers are price sensitive: increasing cigarette taxes by 10 per cent will reduce consumption by 8 per cent.

• A simulation exercise shows that when cigarette taxes are raised in line with inflation and streamlined between 2020-2023, government excise tax revenue will increase by LKR 37 billion by 2023 and 140,000 premature deaths from cigarette consumption can be prevented in the future.

The Institute of Policy Studies of Sri Lanka (IPS) has released a report which provides a comprehensive assessment of Sri Lanka’s historical and current tobacco tax policies to assess whether they are in line with the World Health Organization’s (WHO) recommended best practices. The new report ‘Elasticity Estimates for Cigarettes in Sri Lanka’ is authored by Dr. Nisha Arunathilake, Harini Weerasekera and Chamini Thilanka, and is part of a series of IPS research focusing on health and education.

According to the WHO, significant increases in tobacco taxes are the best means of controlling tobacco consumption. High taxes are an incentive for quitting tobacco, reducing consumption, and for not initiating smoking. The report finds that although cigarette prices have gone up over time, cigarettes are still affordable for smokers as tax increases have not kept up with inflation and income increases. Further, the tax structure is not streamlined, and tax policy changes have been implemented in an ad-hoc manner.

The report provides an estimate of price and income elasticities of cigarettes, and uses these to assess the effectiveness of tax increases on smoking prevalence in the country by conducting a simulation analysis. The results show that increasing cigarette taxes by 10 per cent will reduce consumption by 8 per cent. Finally, the study used the estimated tax elasticities to model the health and fiscal benefits of moving to inflation-adjusted and uniform excise tax system over 4 years.



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Rs. 1 million fine proposed on substandard plastic producers

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Dr. Ravindra Kariyawasam

The government’s proposal to raise fines on manufacturers of substandard plastic products to as much as Rs. 1 million is expected to trigger a major compliance shift within Sri Lanka’s plastics industry, correcting long-standing market distortions caused by weak enforcement.

Environment Deputy Minister Anton Jayakody said the move targets producers who continue to bypass approved standards, undercutting compliant manufacturers and exacerbating environmental damage.

Environment Ministry Advisor Dr. Ravindra Kariyawasam said the initiative represents a structural market correction rather than a purely environmental intervention.

“Non-compliant producers have enjoyed an artificial cost advantage for years, distorting pricing and discouraging legitimate investment,” Kariyawasam told The Island Financial Review. “Meaningful penalties are essential to restore fairness and industry discipline.”

He said the widespread circulation of low-grade plastic products has eroded consumer confidence and delayed the sector’s transition towards higher-value and sustainable manufacturing.

Industry analysts note that a Rs. 1 million fine would significantly alter risk calculations for marginal operators, forcing upgrades in machinery, testing and compliance or pushing weaker players out of the market.

Kariyawasam stressed that the policy is intended to support responsible businesses rather than suppress industry growth.

“Manufacturers investing in recycling, biodegradable alternatives and quality assurance should not be penalised by competing with environmentally damaging, low-cost products,” he said.

The Deputy Minister indicated that tighter enforcement will be paired with policy support for sustainable packaging and circular-economy initiatives, aligning the sector with emerging global trade and environmental standards.

From a business perspective, the proposed regulation is likely to impact pricing, supply chains and capital investment decisions, while improving the long-term credibility of Sri Lanka’s plastics industry in both domestic and export markets.

By Ifham Nizam

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First Capital to unveil Sri Lanka’s Economic Outlook and Investment Strategies for 2026

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First Capital Holdings PLC (the Group), a subsidiary of JXG (Janashakthi Group) and a pioneering force in Sri Lanka’s investment landscape, is set to host the 12th edition of its renowned ‘First Capital Investor Symposium’ on 22 January 2026 at Cinnamon Life Colombo, starting from 5.30 pm onwards.

The 12th Edition will focus on Sri Lanka’s Economic Outlook for 2026, offering attendees a comprehensive analysis of market forecasts, investment strategies and emerging opportunities in the capital markets. The symposium serves as a crucial gathering for investors seeking insights to navigate the evolving economic landscape and make sound, strategic decisions.

As a leading investment institution, First Capital remains committed to promoting informed decision-making through comprehensive research and market analysis. By hosting this annual symposium, the organisation reinforces its role as a trusted partner in Sri Lanka’s capital markets, providing a premier platform for investors, professionals, and industry leaders to exchange knowledge, explore opportunities and build meaningful connections.

A key highlight of this year’s agenda will be First Capital’s presentation on the Economic and Investment Outlook, outlining market conditions and investment strategies for the period ahead. The presentation will be delivered by Ranjan Ranatunga, Assistant Vice President – Research of First Capital Holdings PLC.

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Rivers, Rights, Resilience Forum 2026 begins in Colombo

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Oxfam in Asia commenced the Rivers, Rights, Resilience Forum (RRRF) 2026, a three-day regional forum bringing together water experts, policymakers, civil society, researchers, and community leaders from across South Asia and beyond to strengthen cooperation on shared river systems and climate resilience.

The Forum is part of the Transboundary Rivers of South Asia (TROSA) programme, supported by the Government of Sweden, which works on the Ganges–Brahmaputra–Meghna (GBM) river basins, while also encouraging cross-basin learning at the regional and global levels. This year’s theme is “Building Resilient Communities and Ecosystems.” The Forum is co-organised by Oxfam in Asia and Dev Pro, Sri Lanka.

The forum opened with a welcome address by John Samuel, Regional Director, Oxfam in Asia, who highlighted the deep connection between rivers, politics, climate change, and sustainability. He underlined how rivers shape both environmental and social outcomes across South Asia and called for stronger collaboration between governments and civil society.

“Today building resilience is important in terms of climate and politics, and when civic space is shrinking, we should all work in solidarity,” he said.

Speaking at the Forum, Chamindry Saparamadu, Executive Director of DevPro shared examples of how communities in Sri Lanka have taken actions to ensure equitable access to water resources through catchment protection initiatives, community-based water societies etc. She further highlighted that learning exchanges would be useful to further strengthen inter-provincial water governance in Sri Lanka.

The Chief Guest, Syeda Rizwana Hasan, Advisor, Ministry of Environment, Forest and Climate Change and Ministry of Water Resources, Bangladesh, in her video message, emphasised the need for regional cooperation among South Asian countries beyond the upstream–downstream identity.

“Climate change will make water scarce, so South Asian countries have to come together to work on the common interest of their communities. Rivers are not just ecology but economics as well for communities. Forums like this help us to share our experience and learn from each other,” she said.

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