New electoral system benefited NPP

Wednesday 30th October, 2024

The current mixed proportional electoral system—a combination of the first-past-the-post and proportional representation (PR) systems—under which the local government elections are held, is in the spotlight again following the outcome of the Elpitiya Pradeshiya Sabha (PS) election held last Saturday (26).

The JVP-led NPP obtained 15 seats but failed to secure a working majority in the PS as the Opposition political parties and the independent group in the fray also obtained 15 seats. The two sides are now evenly balanced. It will be interesting to see whether the NPP secures the backing of some Opposition members it has condemned as undesirables.

Obviously, the NPP, which had won the presidential election only about four weeks before, expected a better result on Saturday. In 2019, the SLPP, as an Opposition party, was able to win 17 out of 29 seats in the Elpitiya PS. In 2002, the JVP itself won 06 seats in the Tissamaharama PS as opposed to the ruling UNP’s 04 seats and the SLFP-led PA’s 02 seats; in other words, it won against the UNP led by Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe and President Chandrika Kumaratunga’s People’s Alliance. Today, the JVP-led NPP is in power!

The new electoral system has come in for criticism, and prominent among its critics is the NPP, which says it has distorted the people’s decision in Elpitiya. JVP/NPP stalwart, K. D. Lal Kantha, has condemned the mixed proportional system in public, demanding urgent action to change it. He is entitled to his opinion, and he is not alone in demanding electoral reforms at the local government level, but the NPP’s argument against the current mixed proportional system is self-defeating.

An analysis of Saturday’s Elpitiya PS election results shows that the NPP would have been able to secure only 13 seats in the local council if the election had been held under the previous PR system. It benefitted from two overhang seats; it was able to win 15 out of 17 seats on the ward basis under the first-past-the-post system. Overhang seats arise when a party or a group happens to obtain seats in excess of what it is entitled to under the PR system. If one divides the NPP’s votes by the qualifying number, one will see that the NPP was entitled to only 13 seats, but it could retain all 15 seats it won on the ward basis. If the election had been conducted under the PR system, the number of members elected to the Elpitiya PS would have been 28 and not 30 (28+02 overhangs), and the Opposition would have obtained 15 out of those 28 seats. Such an electoral setback would have landed the NPP in deep trouble, with a general election to be held next month.

The next parliamentary election will be held under the PR system, and the NPP will have to improve its electoral performance significantly if it is to obtain a majority. Former President Ranil Wickremesinghe predicted recently that the next Parliament would be hung. Interestingly, a few days after his prediction, the Elpitiya PS became hung! There are others who are prognosticating the likelihood of a hung parliament, on the basis of the results of last month’s presidential election. Whether the NPP will be able to prove them wrong remains to be seen.

The need for a radical rethink about the mixed proportional system cannot be overstated. It is in practice in some other countries, such as Germany, but those who introduced it here blundered by causing the number of local councillors to increase exponentially. Some half-hearted efforts have since been made to change it, but mini polls continue to be held under it. If electoral reforms are to be introduced, that will have to be done after the conduct of the next countrywide local government elections.