Monetary Board increases interest rates drastically to tackle runaway inflation; highest levels in 21 years

The Monetary Board on Wednesday (06) increased the Standing Deposit Facility Rate (SDFR) and the Standing Lending Facility Rate (SLFR) of the Central Bank by 100 basis points to 14.50 per cent and 15.50 per cent, respectively.That had been done to tackle rising domestic inflation, the Central Bank of Sri Lanka (CBSL) said, explaining the reasons for the Monetary Board decision, adding that these rates are at the highest in 21 years.

he Bank said it had noted a higher-than-expected increase of headline inflation recently.The high inflation is expected to remain in the period ahead, thus the Monetary Board was of the view that a further monetary policy tightening would be necessary to contain any build-up of adverse inflation expectations.The CBSL said that the policy adjustments would help Sri Lanka stabilise its inflation to between 4 and 6 percent in the medium term.

The Bank said that they considered the impact of tighter monetary conditions on overall economic activity, including the micro, small, and medium scale businesses, and the financial sector performance, among others, against far reaching adverse consequences of any escalation of price pressures across all sectors of the economy in the near term.

The Bank raised rates by 700 basis points in April but made no further moves at its previous policy meeting in May.

Excerpts of the CBSL statement: “Central banks have become increasingly hawkish across the globe Central banks from around the world continue to tighten their monetary policies to counter sustained inflationary pressures, exacerbated by high petroleum and food prices arising from geopolitical tensions, and destabilising inflation expectations.

“Nevertheless, the outlook for the global economy has deteriorated recently amidst the global spread of inflation, substantial interest rate hikes, and escalation of geopolitical tensions. The unfolding of these events could have large negative spillover effects on emerging markets and developing economies in the period ahead.

“Domestic economic activity is expected to record a notable downturn in the near term As per the GDP estimates published by the Department of Census and Statistics (DCS), the Sri Lankan economy is estimated to have recorded a contraction of 1.6 per cent, year-on-year, in the first quarter of 2022. Domestic economic activity during the second quarter of 2022 is expected to have been severely affected by the continued supply side disruptions, primarily due to the shortages of power and energy.

“Amidst adverse developments on the domestic front, geopolitical tensions in Eastern Europe that have affected global commodity markets and supply chains could pose further risks to domestic economic growth in the near term.

“The trade deficit narrowed significantly in May 2022 over the corresponding period of last year, largely supported by the policy measures that were aimed at discouraging non urgent imports, alongside the constrained foreign exchange liquidity in the domestic foreign exchange market.

“Foreign exchange inflows in the form of workers’ remittances and tourism earnings remain lower than expected, impacted by unfavourable conditions both domestically and globally. The exchange rate, which underwent a severe bout of depreciation in March 2022, remains broadly stable with the introduction of market guidance from mid-May 2022.

“Gross official reserves, as at end June 2022, are estimated at US dollars 1.9 billion, including the swap facility from the People’s Bank of China equivalent to around US dollars 1.5 billion, which is subject to conditionalities on usability. Significant progress has been made with respect to negotiations with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) towards reaching a staff-level agreement on the Extended Fund Facility (EFF) arrangement in the near term, while negotiations with several bilateral and multilateral partners are ongoing to secure bridging financing. Moreover, expeditious arrangements are being made with regard to the external debt restructuring process.

“Ensuring external sector stability and overall macroeconomic stability requires commitment from all stakeholders of the economy, given the unprecedented balance of payments pressures and severe stresses experienced at present across all sectors of the economy.

The measures introduced by the Central Bank to ensure domestic monetary stability and external stability of the Sri Lanka rupee, need to be supported by coherent and consistent actions on the part of the Government, state-owned enterprises, private sector corporates, and banking and non-banking financial institutions, among others. Such co-ordinated response to crisis management would ensure public support and eventually help bring about normalcy to economic activity in the period ahead.”