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Editorial

ME War and the loser

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Thursday 12th March, 2026

It is not possible to predict who will emerge victorious in the ongoing war in the Middle East or whether the conflict will end without a clear winner though US President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu would have the world believe that they will surely be the winners. The US-Israel military power is doubtlessly far superior to that of Iran, but in a war of this nature, military might alone does not guarantee a clear victory.

Difficult as it may be to predict who will win in the current Gulf conflict, the overall loser is already known; it is the world economy. Global markets are heavily reliant on President Trump’s assurance that the war will not last long, and the release of the G7 strategic oil reserves to stabilise the world oil supply. But Trump’s most intense airstrikes on Tuesday have not yielded the desired results. Iran remains defiant and has raised the stakes for the global economy by threatening to bring oil exports from the region through the Strait of Hormuz to a complete halt unless the US and Israel stop attacks. It continues to fire missiles and carry out drone attacks on US interests in the region. Trump has announced that the US will seriously consider providing security to the ships sailing through the Hormuz Strait, but whether the US is equal to the task is the question. It is being argued in some quarters that Trump and Netanyahu have already bitten off more than they can chew.

There is reason to believe that Trump went to war with Iran without a proper assessment of the ground situation. His plan was to make short work of the current Iranian regime with shock-and-awe aerial bombardments and the assassination of Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, but his plan has apparently gone awry. The slain Iranian leader’s son has been elected the Supreme Leader. Trump may have expected the Iranian anti-government protesters to make the most of the ongoing bombing spree, come out in their millions and bring down their embattled regime, but they are silent today. Perhaps, they are too scared to challenge the beleaguered regime, which has warned that ‘every soldier has his finger on the trigger’ and protesters will be treated as traitors. It is also possible that the protesters are now disillusioned with the US after realising that Washington has sought to use them as a cat’s paw in its efforts to grab Iran’s oil resources.

Has the US made, in Iran, a military miscalculation similar to the one in Afghanistan? The US Intelligence community and the military estimated that Kabul was resilient enough to hold out for several months after the withdrawal of the US troops in 2021. But that city fell to the Taliban in days, causing the then US President Joe Biden to admit that the collapse had happened “more quickly than the US had anticipated”.

Iran may not have anticipated a joint US-Israel military operation of this magnitude. It remains to be seen whether Iran can sustain its missile and drone attacks vis-à-vis the US-Israeli air strikes on its arms stockpiles and military installations. However, what one gathers from the views of military analysts is that it is very unlikely that President Trump will go so far as to deploy ground troops in Iran, with about 59% of Americans opposing his war, according to opinion surveys. In its war for oil in Iraq, the US had the backing of a much broader international coalition.

Nothing could be more humiliating to the US than Washington’s call for help from Ukraine to deal with the Iranian drones. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, whom President Trump once showed the door during a White House meeting, has confirmed that the US sought his help to defend its allies in the Persian Gulf against the Iranian drones. Did Trump start a war without a proper assessment of the enemy’s drone capability?

The enormous economic cost of the Middle East conflict will have to be borne by not only the parties thereto but also by the entire world. Trump’s assurances and the G7 responses have prevented panic in global markets, but unless the US and Israel end the war soon and take steps to keep the Strait of Hormuz functional, oil prices will soar again, pushing the world closer to a global recession. If Trump and Netanyahu stop their war midway, they will face a domestic political backlash. Trump and Netanyahu have the Epstein files and corruption charges to contend with, respectively. The Trump administration is facing midterm elections in November. Politically speaking, Trump and Netanyahu are on a tiger ride in the Middle East.

The biggest challenge before the US and Israel in the ongoing conflict is to prevent Iran from shifting the war to the economic front, and make the global economy scream.



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Editorial

Sanctity, rights and politics

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Friday 1st  May, 2026

Two full moon Poya days fall in May 2026, and there are two schools of thought about when Vesak should be observed. One insists that Vesak should be celebrated today, and the other is of the view that Vesak falls on 30 May. This difference of opinion has given rise to some confusion in the minds of the public and even protests in some quarters. The government has said its decision to observe Vesak on 30 May was taken on the recommendation of the Maha Sangha. This issue has come about and drawn so much attention because the International Workers’ Day, known for grand political events in this country, also falls today.

The overlap of Poya and May Day this year has been a blessing for some political parties that are not strong enough to stage shows of strength today. They have declared that they do not want to engage in political activities on a day of religious significance and therefore will not hold May Day rallies. Even if Poya had not fallen today, they would not have been able to hold successful May Day rallies.

Among the political parties that have decided against holding rallies today are the SLPP and the UNP, which has also used Poya as an excuse for turning down the SJB’s invitation to hold a joint May Day event. The UNP has written to the SJB that it will perform religious observances today in keeping with the late President Ranasinghe Premadasa’s policy that the UNP should not hold May Day rallies if the International Workers’ Day coincides with Poya. The subtext of its letter is that Sajith Premadasa, who leads the SJB, does not follow his late father’s policy.

The convergence of Poya and May Day has deprived the JVP/NPP of an opportunity to make a display of its political strength while it is reeling from several scandals and the Opposition is on the offensive. It has opted to hold May Day rallies at the district level. But they will not be as effective as a mammoth May Day rally in Colombo in boosting the morale of the rank and file of the JVP/NPP and sending a message to the Opposition that the government is far from weak.

JVP General Secretary Tilvin Silva has said the JVP/NPP decided not to bring its members to Colombo for a May Day rally in view of the current fuel crisis. This is not an implausible excuse in that the government would have drawn heavy criticism if it had held a political rally in Colombo while urging the public to use fuel sparingly. It would also have been criticised if it had held a grand May Day event in Colombo on a Poya Day.

No political issue would have arisen today if the workers’ day had not been politicised. Those which pass for labour day celebrations are shameful displays of workers’ servility to political leaders who have a viselike grip on the labour movement. Of course, there have been progressive, visionary politicians as well as independent labour leaders who championed the workers’ cause wholeheartedly and made a tremendous contribution towards the protection of labour rights. Those leaders must be remembered today, but unfortunately trade unions have become appendages of political parties, serving the interests of politicians rather than those of workers. These political trade unions are the bane of the labour movement. Political agendas of the parties controlling trade unions will continue to take precedence over workers’ interests unless the labour movement is liberated from the clutches of politicians. Trade unions have a pivotal role to play in helping the country achieve progress, but their political affiliations have prevented them doing so.

What workers, trade unionists and the politicians who claim to champion labour rights should do today, when a day of religious significance to Buddhists falls, is to remind themselves of the Buddha’s teaching on work, based on three main principles––doing no harm through one’s livelihood, earning honestly and using wealth responsibly and ethically.

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Editorial

Sobering truth vs belligerent bluster

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Thursday 30th April, 2026

US President Donald Trump has lashed out at German Chancellor Friedrich Merz for being critical of the US-Israeli military campaign against Iran. Instead of countering the German leader’s compelling arguments, Trump has alleged that Germany is not opposed to Iran’s nuclear programme. He has written in a social media post that Merz thinks it is all right for Iran to have a nuclear weapon and does not know what he is talking about. If Iran had a nuclear weapon, the whole world would be held hostage, Trump has claimed. Merz has said nothing to suggest that Germany is soft on Iran’s nuclear ambitions. Instead, he has very convincingly pointed out that the US-Israeli military strategy is ill-conceived and flawed.

Trump is known for using circular reasoning and false dichotomy when he tries to defend the indefensible. His claim that Iran has to be prevented from acquiring nuclear capability is self-defeating, for US Intelligence Chief Tulsi Gabbard herself has testified before the Congress that Tehran is not building nuclear weapons. Washington has manufactured a casus belli again, the way it did in 2003 to justify the invasion of Iraq; it claimed that Saddam Hussein had stockpiles of chemical weapons.

Ironically, President Trump, who has been eyeing the Nobel Peace Prize, is not at peace with the rest of the world, including the NATO member states. Having bombed Iran, destroying assets worth billions of US dollars and killing thousands of civilians, he has opted for negotiations with Tehran. International media reports and defence analysts have indicated that the US has exhausted a substantial portion of some of its missile stockpiles, and now it has to rebuild the inventories, a task that will take a considerable time; this could affect Washington’s preparedness for future conflicts, they have pointed out. Trump is believed to have made a virtue of necessity by declaring a ceasefire.

Merz’s criticism of the US-Israeli war on Iran has struck a responsive chord with all peace-loving people around the world. His assessment of the West Asian conflict is spot on. He has rightly pointed out that Washington is being humiliated by Tehran’s negotiating tactics. Iran has openly stated that it did not ask for a ceasefire.

It is obvious that Trump plunged headfirst into war, without having an exit strategy. He and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu may have expected to make short work of Iran, engineer a regime change and install a puppet regime in Tehran. Iran’s resilience and strategic moves made the US-Israeli military plans go awry.

Merz has cogently argued that the problem with conflicts like the current one in West Asia is that “always you don’t just have to get in – you have to get out again, as was seen in Afghanistan for 20 years and in Iraq”. In Afghanistan, after two decades of fighting, which caused thousands of civilian deaths and cost the western taxpayers about a trillion dollars, the US and its allies replaced the Taliban with the Taliban, as it were.

In an asymmetric engagement, there is hardly anything that the weaker side, fighting for survival, does not weaponise. Iran effectively shifted the war to the economic front while attacking Israel, the US bases in the region and the critical assets of the American allies within its missile range. The closure of the Hormuz Strait, which Iran is using as a strategic lever, has disrupted global oil and fertiliser supplies passing through that chokepoint. Massive oil price hikes could not have come at a worse time for Europe, which is still struggling to deal with the fallout from the Ukraine war and the Covid-19 pandemic. The soaring oil prices have become a double whammy for the European nations as well as others. It is only natural that Europe does not want the West Asian conflict to drag on. US farmers are also complaining of staggering increases in production costs due to soaring fertiliser prices. The US naval blockade has not helped Washington solve the problem—the closure of the Hormuz Strait for international navigation. Oil prices are rising and economies are screaming the world over. Trump has had to clean up the mess he and Netanyahu created in West Asia.

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Editorial

Stop mob intimidation

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Wednesday 29th April, 2026

The police yesterday intervened to prevent a clash between a group of JVP activists and some Opposition politicians who held a protest near the private residence of Secretary to the Ministry of Finance Dr. Harshana Suriyapperuma, in a Colombo suburb. The protesters complained of a cow dung attack by the JVP members, who denied the charge. Tempers were flaring, and the two groups would have come to blows but for the police presence.

There is no gainsaying that citizens have a right to conduct peaceful protests near state institutions where scandals occur or in other public places. On Monday, a large number of anti-government activists were seen near the Finance Ministry protesting against an illegal diversion of Treasury funds. They shouted themselves hoarse before dispersing. But some self-proclaimed anti-corruption campaigners obviously overstepped their limits and became a nuisance when they protested near Dr. Suriyapperuma’s house the following day. Such demonstrations, in our view, amount to mob intimidation.

The family members of Dr. Suriyapperuma or other Finance Ministry officials obviously have nothing to do with the theft of Treasury funds and must not be made to suffer distress. One may argue that the JVP, which resorted to similar tactics in the past, has been hoist with its own petard. The JVP even made a determined yet abortive bid to march on Parliament at the height of a popular uprising in 2022. If it had succeeded in its endeavour, the country would have been plunged into anarchy. But two wrongs don’t make a right.

Lessons learnt during the final phase of Aragalaya in 2022, when scores of houses belonging to the then ruling party politicians and their family members were torched and an SLPP MP was murdered, must not be forgotten. Protests and counter-protests tend to spiral out of control once tension rises and seething anger blinds mobs to reason. Hence the need for the organisers of such events to act with restraint and take precautions. Political leaders ought to keep troublemakers among their supporters on a tight leash.

Pressure must be ramped up on the government to stop shielding the corrupt and have the Treasury theft and other scandals probed thoroughly, and the Opposition’s right to hold peaceful protests cannot be questioned, but under no circumstance must protesters be allowed to mob the residences of politicians and officials.

Ad hoc funds

Everything seems to have gone wrong at once for the JVP-NPP government. While the Opposition is flogging the issue of a Treasury fund diversion to a rouge account, Chairman of the Committee on Public Finance (COPF) and SJB MP Dr. Harsha de Silva has raised concerns about the legality of the Rebuilding Sri Lanka Fund (RSLF), which was set up in the aftermath of Cyclone Ditwah last year.

On Monday, addressing the media, Deputy Minister of Finance Dr. Anil Jayantha Fernando assured the public that the RSLF was safe. Donations had come from Sri Lankans and foreigners in 49 countries, he said, dismissing as baseless a claim that the fund had not been properly utilised. Responding to him, the COPF Chief has said that the RSLF has no legal validity. He has argued in an X message that under the IMF programme several funds were abolished, and only statutory funds are maintained. He has repeatedly questioned the Finance Ministry officials on issues regarding the RSLF only to be informed that they are still working on them, according to his social media post.

The RSLF has been free from allegations of irregularities, but its lack of statutory grounding could give rise to issues about transparency, regulatory oversight and public trust. Statutory recognition will help foreclose criticism that often has a corrosive effect on the integrity of relief funds.

It is hoped that the COPF will ensure that the Finance Ministry officials appear before it and explain why they have made no serious effort to obtain statutory status for the RSLF. The practice of establishing ad hoc relief funds needs to be discontinued.

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