Make candidates act responsibly

Tuesday 10th September, 2024

The Election Commission (EC) met the presidential candidates and their representatives yesterday to discuss matters related to the forthcoming election. It has already warned them of the consequences of election law violations, but there have been very serious allegations against some candidates including President Ranil Wickremesinghe. The Cabinet headed by the President seems to think it is above the law, and can act with impunity. It keeps making decisions and announcing them to influence voters. The EC has stepped in to stop some of them, but much more needs to be done.

Most of all, let the candidates be told in no uncertain terms that none of them must declare victory prematurely and mislead his supporters, thereby preparing the ground for street protests against the outcome of the election in the event of his defeat.

The EC is right in having asked the public not to take opinion polls seriously. Pre-election surveys and exit polls could be misleading as evident from the forecasts in respect of the last Indian general election. All exit polls predicted that the BJP and its coalition partners would secure more than 350 seats in the Lok Sabha, but they could obtain only 293 seats. The BJP even lost the Faizabad constituency, which is home to the Ayodhya Ram Temple. One may recall that pollsters’ forecasts anent the last three US national elections have been wide off the mark. Polls failed to predict Democratic support in 2016 and 2020 presidential elections accurately; they in fact grossly exaggerated it, and Republic strength they predicted was found to be highly inflated in the 2022 midterms. Pre-election surveys projected Hillary Clinton as the winner in the 2016 US presidential race, and election forecasters went overboard, elevating, as they did, her chance of winning from about 70% to 99%. Hillary lost and Donald Trump became the President. Some states such as Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, which, pollsters said, would swing for Hillary, were bagged by Trump.

Pollsters got it wrong as regards the British parliamentary election in July 2024. They overestimated Keir Starmer and predicted a bigger majority for Labour. It is now being argued that the forecasts were off the mark because there was a last-minute swing away from Labour just before the polling day. This argument sounds tenable. There can be such swings in any polity, with some voters making up their minds at the eleventh hour. What happened in France a few months ago is a case in point.

In June, far right activists in France erupted into euphoria; Le Pen’s National Rally scored an impressive win in the first round of the legislative elections, which saw a record turnout. But the left-wing New Popular Front emerged the overall winner by winning the second round of the election held a few days later.

Above all, ahead of the 2015 presidential election, all intelligence reports predicted an easy win for the then incumbent President Mahinda Rajapaksa, but Maithripala Sirisena emerged as a dark horse.

All leading presidential candidates pretend to be confident that no need will arise for counting preferential votes. That is the best scenario one can hope for. But reality is apparently otherwise; given the fact that votes are divided among four main candidates, it is doubtful whether anyone will be able to secure the presidency straightaway by winning 50% plus one vote. The counting of preferences is something Sri Lankans are not familiar with. Even a slight delay in the release of results gives rise to many conspiracy theories in this country, and some candidates refuse to concede defeat even when they are beaten with huge margins. So, the EC will have to prepare the public for the possibility of an unprecedented delay in releasing the final result in case preferences have to be counted, and take precautions to meet any eventuality. The EC has ordered the police to use lethal force, if necessary, to deal with troublemakers. This is certainly welcome, but there must be a contingency plan to deal with a far worse situation. Nothing must be left to chance in protecting the counting centres.