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Lanka to lend US$2.5bn to US and top-rated borrowers in 2023 under IMF deal: analysis

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ECONOMYNEXT – Sri Lanka is projected to lend 2,533 million US dollars mainly to the US and Euro areas during an International Monetary Fund deal in 2023 including a mandatory 1.4 billion US dollars collected from exports and remittances, according to official documents.

Sri Lanka is expected to get two tranches of 331.2 million dollar (254 million special drawing rights each) in March and September 2023 from the IMF.In 2023 Sri Lanka has to repay 256.4 million dollars from an earlier IMF loan taken during an earlier currency crisis.

Net inflows from the IMF would be 406.12 million US dollars in 2023 if the first review is completed in September 2023.Sri Lanka has committed to collect at least 1.4 billion US dollars from remittances and exports and lend to the US and other developed nations during 2023 under the IMF deal.

A large volume has already been collected. An ad hoc peg is now operated under the IMF deal to buy dollars and export to the West, as ‘below-the-line outflows. Sri Lanka’s foreign reserves are usually loaned to highly rated sovereign or sovereign linked borrowers, mainly in the US.

But there have been amounts of Euro assets in Sri Lanka’s foreign reserves at times, triggering forex losses when the dollar to Euro parity changed.Under the IMF program there is a performance criterion to increase net international reserves by 1,948 million dollars during 2023.

Sri Lanka is also expected to repay a 200 million US dollar swap to Bangladesh during 2023, which will also raise the NIR.At the moment Sri Lanka’s central bank is in debt after borrowing from India, Bangladesh, India including on Asian Clearing Union dues as well as the IMF. Year end net international reserves would still be negative.

Sri Lanka’s gross reserves are expected to rise by 2.5 billion US dollars to 4.4 billion US dollars in 2023 indicating that the country will lend 2.5 billion US dollars to the US and other highly rated borrowers. It may include re-invested interest coupons.

Sri Lanka is also expected to get 650 million dollars from the Asian Development Bank and 250 million dollars from the World Bank as part of partner support for the IMF deal. Outside of core monetary reserves linked to reserve money, balances in Treasury accounts are also counted as forex reserves.



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Unions resist tripartite EPF management plan

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… warn of dire consequences

A group of trade unions and civil society groups has requested President Anura Kumara Dissanayake to abandon his government’s controversial plan for the proposed tripartite management of the EPF.

The group has told the President: “We strongly object to the government’s plan to transfer the EPF to a tripartite board—jointly promoted by the Employers’ Federation of Ceylon (EFC), International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the International Labour Organisation (ILO)—and to increase the investments of those funds within private equity and debt markets.

“While the EFC and the government jointly project this plan as a ‘modern governance framework’, it poses a serious threat to the EPF’s financial stability, fiduciary conduct, and returns to workers’ life savings, with severe consequences for broader macroeconomic stability. Rather than replacing the corruption existing in the public sector, this tripartite framework paves the way for a corporate takeover of the EPF. Through this, the fund is exposed to unlawful business practices such as insider trading using internal information of EPF investments, conflicts of interest and corporate bailouts of unstable private companies.

“Sri Lanka’s corporate sector has a tremendously negative track record, which you alluded to during your victorious election campaign in 2024. This was recently unravelled by the multi-billion-dollar illicit capital flight through trade misinvoicing, which your administration is now actively working to curb in the imports sector.

“The recent banking sector fraud exceeds Rs. 13 billion; widespread corporate tax evasion destabilised the fiscal position (Sri Lanka Auditor General’s Department Annual Reports) and consequently inflated the tax burden on the general public. The EFC has found it convenient to remain silent about these crimes, possibly assuming that their silence would preserve their social standing. Considering this inherent corruption within Sri Lanka’s corporate sector and its disregard to the living standards of the general public, there is no realistic basis to integrate corporate interests to actively manage the EPF. The corporate sector of Sri Lanka has not developed sufficiently on technical and ethical grounds to safely entrust the largest retirement savings pool in the country. The EPF is a captive fund that has no mechanism for the owners to divest if the management is corrupt. This further increases the possibility of corporate fraud when the management of the fund is jointly held with the corporate sector.

“Furthermore, during the recent public discussion with trade unions, Deputy Minister of Finance Dr. Anila Jayantha pointed out that the domestic debt restructuring (DDR) would inflict a loss of Rs. 600 billion to the EPF. Our independent calculations—formally submitted as an affidavit to the Supreme Court approved by the Federation of University Teachers’ Associations in 2024—reveal that nominal loss alone is Rs. 634.4 billion. When factoring in foreclosed reinvestment returns, the true loss skyrockets to Rs. 1,711 billion, wiping out 48% of the fund’s projected gross income for the 2023 – 2028 period. Under the pretext of safeguarding the banking system, this colossal robbery preserved high yields on government bonds held by commercial banks and high-net-worth individuals, subsequently reaping them astronomical profits. Now, the exact same plunder is rearing its head again disguised as a tripartite committee.”

“The main arguments supporting our resistance and viable alternatives for optimising EPF management directly under the Central Bank of Sri Lanka (CBSL), are outlined below.

“Objections to the government’s tripartite proposal:

1. The “International best practice and conflict of interest fallacies”

The government holds that tripartite management of pension funds is the “international best practice” and that there is a “conflict of interest” in CBSL managing the EPF. They are key pillars justifying government’s tripartite proposal.

These two positions are shockingly misleading given that four of the five largest pension funds in the world, in Norway, Japan, the U.S., and Singapore, are managed directly by state bodies or central banks. Therefore, ‘international best practice’ in pension fund management is the exact opposite of what the government and the IMF are proposing. We hence reject these baseless positions.

2. Corporate captivity and bailouts

It is clear that the EFC is desperately pushing for this proposal at a time of global uncertainty, to cushion the effects of the crisis and maximise gains. Under corporate influence within the proposed tripartite board, the private conglomerates can use the multi-trillion-rupee EPF to continue their unstable commercial operations without having to risk their own capital or savings to do so. This will severely erode the financial stability of the EPF and its returns.

3. Risk of front running

“Because the EPF is a colossal fund, its investment decisions can alter asset prices. This creates immense monetary value for the information generated by its investment decisions. Corporate representatives on the proposed tripartite board will be perfectly positioned to use this information to trade ahead of the EPF (front-running), buying assets cheaply and dumping them onto the EPF at inflated prices for guaranteed corporate gain, resulting in a reduction of returns to the EPF.

4. Unavoidable loopholes

“Presence of a separate group of investment analysts, trade union representatives and government officials within the proposed tripartite structure cannot prevent pre-market corporate access to EPF’s investment decisions. Investment proposals made by the analysts has to be first approved by the proposed tripartite committee, making it impossible to prevent corporate access to insider information on EPF investments.”

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Two arrest warrants issued for Gnanasara thera

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Galagoda Aththe Gnanasara

The Colombo High Court and Court of Appeal yesterday issued arrest warrants for the Bodu Bala Sena general secretary Galagoda Aththe Gnanasara in a case involving an alleged statement insulting Islam.

The arrest warrants were issued on Tuesday and Wednesday. The Court of Appeal issued an open warrant two weeks after the court rescinded the presidential pardon granted to the thera when he was serving a six-year term for contempt of court.

The Appeals Court also imposed a travel ban on the monk and ordered that the Controller General of Immigration and Emigration be informed of the restriction.

The case was taken up before Colombo High Court Judge Buddhika C. Ragala. Gnanasara Thera was not present when the case was called.

A medical report was submitted stating that Thera was unwell, while his sureties also failed to appear before court. His counsel, Asoka Weerasuriya, told court that his client wished to bring the case to an early conclusion and that representations had been made to the Attorney General in that regard.

However, after considering the submissions, the High Court judge said he was not satisfied with the medical report submitted on behalf of the accused. The court also noted the failure of the sureties to appear.

The judge subsequently ordered that Gnanasara Thera be arrested and produced before court.The Attorney General filed the case under provisions of the Penal Code, alleging that remarks made by Gnanasara Thera concerning the Holy Quran amounted to an insult to Islam.

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CA dismisses GR’s writ petition against arrest

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Gotabaya

A two-member bench comprising Court of Appeal President Justice Rohantha Abeysuriya and Justice Sarath Dissanayake yesterday (1) dismissed a writ petition filed by former President Gotabaya Rajapaksa seeking judicial intervention to prevent his arrest under the Prevention of Terrorism Act (PTA) in connection with the ongoing investigations into 2019 Easter Sunday terror attacks.

The writ petition was rejected in limine.

In the petition, the former President cited Inspector General of Police Priyantha Weerasooriya, Criminal Investigation Department (CID) Director Shani Abeysekera, the Officer-in-Charge of the CID’s Special Investigations Unit and the Attorney General as respondents. The ex-President sought the court intervention after the arrest of former head of the State Intelligence Service (SIS) retired Maj. Gen. Suresh Sallay over the Easter Sunday attacks.

Since then , former Director of Directorate of Military Intelligence (DMI) has been named as a suspect.

Earlier, the Fort Magistrate’s Court imposed a travel ban on him in relation to investigations stemming from allegations made by Asad Moulana in the Channel 4 documentary on the Easter attacks.

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