Features
Lanka Adrift in Tempestuous Seas
by Kumar David
There are three dangerous global trends. The first is not new, it is the growth of right-wing extremism in the US; the second is more recent and commenced in 2022 with the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The third is the prospect of Sino-US military hostilities. All three will affect this country. Right-wing extremism turned perilous in the US with the election of Donald Trump whose Administration has lived alongside hate groups and an extreme legislative agenda (anti-environmental, anti-feminist, anti-LGBT). In the state of Idaho extremist Ammon Bundy has a chance of being elected State Governor.
America
With disarray in the Democratic Party which fears defeat in mid-term Congressional elections in November and a likely return of Trump to the presidency in 2024, the stage is set for a further drift of the US to right-extremism. Trump seems near certain to be re-elected in 2024 unless convicted of illegalities and barred from contesting. But this may lead to unrest led by the large white working-class base of the Republican Party. It is reasonable to speculate that the United States is on its way, if it happens then for some years only I am sure, to turning right-extremist. What difference will a temporary death of democracy in America mean for midgets like Sri Lanka?
The truthful answer to this is curious; it belongs in the domain of “known unknowns” meaning that we know that the effect could swing in two entirely different ways. The US is the world’s premier military and diplomatic, and one of two leading economic powers. Its influence is large and if it chooses to hound Lanka’s war-criminals and leaders who savaged human-rights it can make life hard for such vermin. On the other hand a right-extremist influenced USA may swing the other way, it could for reasons of its own cut a deal, as it has often done, with the military, leaders who are the scourge of democracy and mass murderers – think Pinochet and dozens of brutal Latin American regimes in the last 50 years.

Russian military losses in Ukraine are huge; some estimate as high as 60,000. (Ukrainian military losses seem to be less than a quarter of this). Both sides are digging in for a cold winter of attrition and trench warfare extending well into 2023; the invasion truly is a gigantic Putin blunder. The Ukraine-Russia policy of zero-integrity Trump’s mongrel hypothetical second Administration, supported by fascist trends in the US can be bizarre. His empathy for Putin, antipathy to NATO and the resemblances of US right-extremism to its European counterparts make outcomes unpredictable. Meanwhile Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant is under attack by Russian artillery; bombing nuclear power plant is not banned by international law. It’s a dangerous world. Big countries have deep enough financial pockets and sufficient economic resources to mollify their populations, a small country is a hapless skiff adrift on a tempestuous ocean.
Europe
Outcomes seem more predictable in post Ukraine-invasion Europe. Western Europe’s choices are stark. The continent is desperate to minimise dependence on Russian gas, coal and strategic materials – the poor spend an astounding 50% of their income on energy. Germany’s long-term energy plans have come unstuck, the drive to a green future has been reversed. Mothballed coal power stations are to be brought into service and three nuclear power plants that were to be decommissioned have been given a lease of life. This is bad news all round, instability in energy markets is not good for anyone, especially small fry.
Apart from energy dependence, Germany, Europe’s largest economy, is also dependent on Russian metals and minerals as are other European industries to varying degrees. Russia has rich reserves of manganese, chromium, nickel, platinum, titanium and the conventional materials iron ore, copper, tin, lead, tungsten, diamonds, phosphates, and gold. Siberia nurtures one-fifth of the world’s timber. Although Lanka is of miniscule significance, Europe’s desire to keep open international supply chains on which its industries depend will be helpful in our quest to preserve GSP+ benefits.
On other counts too, the post invasion environment is troublesome. Russia is the largest urea exporter; one reason for surging fertilizer prices is prices of natural gas and energy needed in urea production. (As of mid-2022 there were indications that urea prices would decline later this year due to a slow start to seeding in the US). Russia is one of the world’s largest exporters of nitrogenous fertiliser, phosphates and potash. Ukraine and Russia are big food exporters and the imbroglio will lead to higher global food prices. All these concerns affect Sri Lanka agriculture directly and via their effect on world food prices.
Sino-US conflict
The danger of spreading Sino-American conflict is chilling for everybody, especially the countries of East Asia, the Far East and the littoral states of the Indian Ocean. Nancy Pelosi’s high-profile visit to Taiwan at this time was foolish and provocative. Pelosi visited the island in defiance of threats from Beijing which views Taiwan as a breakaway province and warned it would consider the visit a major provocation. It was undertaken entirely in the hope of gaining votes for the Democrats in the November 2022 Congressional elections, which expectation will come to nought. It so incensed China that for the first time it conducted military drills that butted into Taiwan’s territorial waters. Outright Sino-US conflict confined even to this theatre is unlikely because neither side has the appetite to escalate, but the visit has destabilised the region and increased the cost of shipping in East Asia and through the Malacca Straits.
A lot is at stake for Chinese leader Xi Jinping who is making an unprecedented since Mao bid for a third term. Xi who came to power in 2012 placed reunification-with-Taiwan high on his agenda; perhaps he will live to regret it as he will be unable to deliver within any foreseeable time-frame. He may wish to turn to domestic issues but it is hard to see how he can link these to the Pelosi visit. China is plagued by a property crisis, and an economic slowdown due to its strict zero-Covid lockdown. According to Hong Kong’s South China Morning Post there are fifty million empty flats in China which threaten to plunge the property market into chaos. These two factors have provoked protests but Xi will not be able to link them to the Pelosi visit and distract attention away from domestic failures. It is most unlikely that Xi’s grip on power will be challenged at the 2022 Congress in November but his inability to deliver on reunification will make him look weak in the ensuing period – Party Congresses are held every five years. This his third-term is likely to be his last.
China is unable to make a critical building block of the global economy: top of the line silicon chips. It buys 60% of the world’s supply of semiconductors to drive its vast industrial product output; 90% are made outside the country or by foreign companies in China. It spends more buying computer chips than importing oil. But it is struggling to keep up in the technological arms race. Why? Its champion in the foundry industry (makers of integrated circuits) Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp last year announced plans to build a 28-nanometre chip but this technology is a decade behind TSMC’s 3-nanometer chip. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Corp is the world’s top chip maker.

TSMC’s dominance ensures Taiwan’s grip on 60% of the global chip business. Furthermore, nine out of the ten outfits which design rather than make chips (“fabless” or non-fabricating outfits), and also drive innovation are US based; the tenth, MediaTek, is Taiwanese. In various ways the US controls half the global chip market and China only 10% and these are technically less sophisticated, more useful for industrial than military uses. China is pouring billions into a chip-building but faces strategic impediments. It is shackled by geopolitical tensions, a hawkish Washington and economic damage caused by its own zero-Covid policy. The sun does not seem to be shining brightly on President Xi. Increases is cost of Chinese merchandise, disruptions to supply chains and big increases in shipping prices are more bad news. For foreign countries the negative effect is the rising costs of Chinese products.
I do not want to sign off on a depressing note, surely there are things we can do. I have been boringly insistent that we as a country have no option but to tighten our belts. Provision has to be made for the poorest but everybody else will feel the pinch. A graded system of price differentiation for all classes, except income tax gradation, is not feasible. Income tax on the rich will certainly have to be raised and a wealth tax and an inheritance tax introduced. True everybody, not only the rich benefited from 70 years of eating more than we produced and from extravagant imports paid for by profligacy in foreign and local debt. However, it is also true that expensive luxuries (fancy cars, foreign travel, fashionable merchandise) were almost entirely for the benefit of the affluent. An incomes and taxation policy that targets better off incomes is justified.
Contradictions in policy space are unavoidable. Exchange controls have to be relaxed to attract foreign investment and the inflow of capital in general. Then the rupee-dollar relationship will decline at the cost of the former – will 2023/24 witness the horror of LKR 1000 to the $ and therefore near galloping inflation? [Galloping inflation grows at dual or triple-digit annual rates, usually for a brief period. Hyperinflation runs at hundreds or thousands of percent per annum and is a precursor of anarchy, revolution or fascism]. High interest rates to curb inflation will shackle growth, hobble small and medium enterprises and crush the informal sector.
There is a reasonable chance that the country will navigate these torrents without shipwreck. Though there is all-round acceptance that some degree of belt-tightening is unavoidable, everyone, even aragalaya grants that revolution is not around the corner and agrees that the risk of anarchy is real. Trade unions, liberals and urban and rural folk agree that Ranil must, and can, be kept on a tight leash re democracy. Hence, I am moderately confident that bourgeois-democracy, albeit doused with economic hardship will come off the life-support system in say a year and that the IMF, India, Western capitalism, and China will wink and give us a hand to climb out of the mire. Reports say that preliminary agreement on a loan has been reached and will be announced a day or two after these lines are written.
Or like Toselli’s serenade is it only a ‘golden dream’, an improbable ‘vision fair’ that a Colour Revolution may deliver rewards? Perhaps I was optimistic when I gushed in this column on April 24 “The people’s uprising is a colour-revolution, a vision fair, a celebration of happier days to come. The light beaming from the radiant eyes of the young is the first time in our two-thousand-year story, to quote a comment, that we have seen anything like it”. I hope my lyricism is not lopsided. Never has a people’s uprising in Lanka driven out an unjust ruler. Regime change so far has always been by armies brought from India ( Moggallana) or conspiracy between Court and foreign colonisers (Kotte and Kandyan Kingdoms).
Features
Fractious West facing a more solidified Eastern opposition
Going forward, it is hoped that a reported ceasefire agreement between the US and Iran would provide a basis for a degree of stability in the Middle East and pave the way for substantive peace talks between the powers concerned. The world is compelled to fall back on hope because there is never knowing when President Donald Trump would change his mind and plans on matters of the first importance. So erratic has he been.
Yet, confusion abounds on who has agreed to what. The US President is on record that a number of conditions put forward by him to Iran to deescalate tensions have been accepted by the latter, whereas Iran is yet to state unambiguously that this is so. For instance, the US side claims that Iran has come clear on the point that it would not work towards acquiring a nuclear weapons capability, but there is no official confirmation by Iran that this is so. The same goes for the rest of the conditions.
Accordingly, the peace process between the US and Iran, if such a thing solidly exists, could be said to be mired in uncertainty. Nevertheless, the wider publics of the world are bound to welcome the prospects of some sort of ceasing of hostilities because it would have the effect of improving their economic and material well being which is today under a cloud.
However, questions of the first magnitude would continue to bedevil international politics and provide the breeding ground for continued tensions between East and West. Iran-US hostilities helped highlight some of these divisive issues and a deescalation of these tensions would not inevitably translate into even a temporary resolution of these questions. The world community would have no choice but to take them up and work towards comprehending them better and managing them more effectively.
For example, there are thorny questions arising from the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT). Essentially, this treaty bans the processing and use of nuclear weapons by states but some of the foremost powers are not signatories to it.
Moreover, the NPT does not provide for the destroying of nuclear arsenals by those signatory states which are already in possession of these WMDs. Consequently, there would be a glaring power imbalance between the latter nuclear-armed states and others which possess only conventional weapons.
Such a situation has grave implications for Iran’s security, for instance. The latter could argue, in view of the NPT restrictions, that the US poses a security threat to it but that it is debarred by the Treaty from developing a nuclear arms capability of its own to enable it to match the nuclear capability of the US. Moreover, its regional rival Israel is believed to possess a nuclear weapons capability.
Accordingly, a case could be made that the NPT is inherently unfair. The US would need to help resolve this vexatious matter going forward. But if it remains, US-Iran tensions would not prove easy to resolve. The same goes for Iran-Israeli tensions. Consequently, the Middle East would remain the proverbial ‘powder keg’.
Besides the above issues, the world has ample evidence that it could no longer speak in terms of a united NATO or West. Apparently, there could be no guarantee that US-NATO relations would remain untroubled in future, even if the current Iran-US standoff is peacefully resolved. US-NATO ties almost reached breaking point in the current crisis when the US President called on its NATO partners, particularly Britain, to help keep open the Hormuz Straits for easy navigation by commercial vessels, militarily, on seeing that such help was not forthcoming. Such questions are bound to remain sore points in intra-Western ties.
In other words, it would be imperative for the US’ NATO partners to help pull the US’ ‘chestnuts out of the fire’ going ahead. The question is, would NATO be willing to thus toe the US line even at the cost of its best interests.
For the West, these fractious issues are coming to the fore at a most unpropitious moment. The reality that could faze the West at present is the strong opposition shown to its efforts to bolster its power and influence by China and Russia. Right through the present crisis, the latter have stood by Iran, materially and morally. For instance, the most recent Security Council resolution spearheaded by the US which was strongly critical of Iran, was vetoed by China and Russia.
Accordingly, we have in the latter developments some marked polarities in international politics that could stand in the way of the West advancing its interests unchallenged. They point to progressively intensifying East-West tensions in international relations in the absence of consensuality.
It is only to be expected that given the substance of international politics that the West would be opposed by the East, read China and Russia, in any of the former’s efforts to advance its self interests unilaterally in ways that could be seen as illegitimate, but what is sorely needed at present is consensuality among the foremost powers if the world is to be ‘a less dangerous place to live in.’ Minus a focus on the latter, it would be a ‘no-win’ situation for all concerned.
It would be central to world stability for International Law to be upheld by all states and international actors. Military intervention by major powers in the internal affairs of other countries remains a principal cause of international mayhem. Both East and West are obliged to abide scrupulously with this principle.
From the latter viewpoint, not only did the West err in recent times, but the East did so as well. Iran, for instance, acted in gross violation of International Law when it attacked neighbouring Gulf states which are seen as US allies. Neither Iran nor the US-Israel combine have helped in advancing international law and order by thus taking the law into their own hands.
Unfortunately, the UN has been a passive spectator to these disruptive developments. It needs to play a more robust role in promoting world peace and in furthering consensual understanding among the principal powers in particular. The need is also urgent to advance UN reform and render the UN a vital instrument in furthering world peace. The East and West need to think alike and quickly on this urgent undertaking.
Features
Science-driven health policies key to tackling emerging challenges — UNFPA
Marking World Health Day on April 7, health experts have called for a stronger commitment to science-based decision-making to address increasingly complex and evolving health challenges in Sri Lanka and beyond.
Dr. Dayanath Ranatunga, Assistant Representative of the United Nations Population Fund, stressed that health is no longer confined to hospitals or traditional medical systems, but is shaped by a broad spectrum of social, environmental, and technological factors.
“This year’s theme, ‘Together for Health. Stand with Science,’ reminds us that science is not only for laboratories or policymakers. It is a way of thinking and a tool that shapes everyday decisions,” he said.
Dr. Ranatunga noted that modern health challenges are increasingly interconnected, ranging from infectious diseases such as COVID-19 to climate-related risks, demographic shifts, and emerging forms of online violence.
He warned that maternal and newborn health continues to demand urgent attention despite progress. Globally, an estimated 260,000 women died from pregnancy and childbirth-related causes in 2023 alone—many of them preventable through timely, science-based interventions.
“In countries like Sri Lanka, where fertility rates are declining and survival rates improving, every pregnancy carries greater significance—not just for families, but for the future of communities and economies,” he said.
The UNFPA official also highlighted the growing threat of Technology Facilitated Gender-Based Violence (TFGBV), including cyber harassment and online abuse, noting that these forms of violence can have deep psychological consequences despite lacking visible physical harm.
He emphasised the need for multidisciplinary, science-informed approaches that integrate mental health, digital safety, and survivor-centered care.
Turning to demographic trends, Dr. Ranatunga pointed out that increasing life expectancy is bringing new challenges, particularly the rise of non-communicable diseases such as diabetes, cardiovascular illnesses, and cancers.
In Sri Lanka, nearly 13.9% of mothers develop diabetes during pregnancy, a trend attributed to obesity and unhealthy lifestyles, underscoring the urgent need for preventive healthcare strategies.
“Are we investing enough in prevention?” he asked, noting that early intervention and healthier lifestyles could significantly reduce long-term healthcare costs, especially in a country with a free public healthcare system.
He underscored the importance of data-driven policymaking, stating that scientific research and analytics enable governments to identify gaps, anticipate future needs, and allocate resources more effectively.
The UNFPA, he said, is already leveraging tools such as Geographic Information Systems (GIS) to improve access to maternal healthcare, including mapping travel times for pregnant women to reach health facilities.
Digital innovation is also transforming healthcare delivery, from telemedicine to real-time data systems, improving efficiency and ensuring continuity of care even during emergencies.
In Sri Lanka, partnerships between the government and development agencies are helping to modernise training institutions, including facilities in Batticaloa, equipping healthcare workers with both clinical and digital skills.
However, Dr. Ranatunga cautioned that technology alone is not a solution.
“It must be guided by evidence and grounded in equity,” he said, pointing out that women’s health remains significantly underfunded, with only about 7% of global healthcare research focusing on conditions specific to women.
He also drew attention to the growing health impacts of climate change, including extreme weather, food insecurity, and displacement, describing it as an emerging public health crisis.
“Health does not begin in hospitals. It is shaped by the environments we live in, the choices we make, and the systems we build,” he said.
Calling for renewed commitment, Dr. Ranatunga urged stakeholders to invest in prevention, embrace innovation, and ensure that science remains central to policy and practice.
“Science is not just about knowledge—it is about ensuring that everyone has the opportunity to live healthy, dignified lives, and that no one is left behind,” he added.
By Ifham Nizam
Features
Sharing the festive joy with ‘Awurudu Kaale’
Melantha Perera is well known as a very versatile musician.
He was involved with the band Mirage, as their keyboardist/vocalist, and was also seen in action with other outfits, as well, before embarking on a trip to Australia, as a solo artiste.
I now hear that he has plans to operate as a trio.
However, what has got many talking about Melantha, these days, is his awesome work with the visually impaired Bright Light Band.
They have worked out a special song for the Sinhala and Tamil New Year, aptly titled ‘Awurudu Kaale.’
Says Melantha: “This song has been created to celebrate the spirit of the Sinhala and Tamil New Year and to share the joy of the Awurudu season with all Sri Lankans”.
Yes, of course, Melantha composed the song, with the lyrics written collaboratively by Melantha, Badra, and the parents of the talented performers, whose creative input brought the song to life during moments of inspiration.

Melantha Perera: Awesome work with Bright Light Band
This meaningful collaboration reflects the strong community behind the Bright Light Band.
According to Melantha, accompaning the song is a vibrant video production that also features the involvement of the parents, highlighting unity, joy, and togetherness.
Beyond showcasing their musical talents, the visually impaired members of Bright Light Band deliver a powerful message, through this project, that their abilities extend beyond singing, as they also express themselves through movement and dance.
Melantha expressed his satisfaction with the outcome of the project and looks forward to sharing it with audiences across the country during this festive season.
He went on to say that Bright Light Band extends its sincere gratitude to Bcert Australia for their generous Mian sponsorship, the CEO of the company, Samath Fernando, for his continuous support in making such initiatives possible, and Rukshan Perera for his personal support and encouragement in bringing this project to completion.
The band also acknowledges Udara Fernando for his invaluable contribution, generously providing studio space and accommodating extended recording sessions to suit the children’s availability.
Appreciation is warmly extended to the parents, whose unwavering commitment from ensuring attendance at rehearsals to supporting the video production has been instrumental in the success of this project.
Through ‘Awurudu Kaale’, Bright Light Band hopes to spread festive cheer and inspire audiences, proving that passion and talent know no boundaries.
-
Features5 days agoRanjith Siyambalapitiya turns custodian of a rare living collection
-
News5 days agoGlobal ‘Walk for Peace’ to be held in Lanka
-
News3 days agoLankan-origin actress Subashini found dead in India
-
Features5 days agoBeyond the Blue Skies: A Tribute to Captain Elmo Jayawardena
-
Opinion7 days agoHidden truth of Sri Lanka’s debt story: The untold narrative behind the report
-
Features5 days agoAspects of Ceylon/Sri Lanka Foreign Relations – 1948 to 1976
-
Business20 hours agoHayleys Mobility introduces Premium OMODA C9 PHEV
-
Features7 days agoThe Ramadan War
