Features
Ladies College Principal’s visit to my hospital and end of my nursing career
Excerpted fro Memories That Linger…
.. by Padmani Mendis
(Continued from Apr. 9)
As soon as I was able to, I went into the city to the office of Thomas Cook.They were then one of the most popular travel agents globally. I could trust them because my mother had used them to arrange my sea voyage to England. I had heard about the English Lake District and how beautiful it was. That is where I wanted to go. Within a few days Thos. Cook planned for me a week’s holiday in Keswick. It was a small town in the heart of the Lake District and they believed it would suit me; they arranged my travel, booked a hotel for me and handed over to me all the relevant documents. My friend Val’s mother drove me to the New Street Railway Station in the city.
The two of them saw me and my suitcase safely on the train and waited on the platform to wave me goodbye. The train left at 11 p.m. I had to change trains at Carlisle way up in the north at 5 a.m. the next morning; the connecting train would take me to Keswick before 7 a.m. I had very few fellow passengers on both stretches of travel.
If I had told my mother of my plans beforehand she would have worried too much. So on my first day in Keswick I wrote and told her where I was and why. Not about how I got there. My travel agent had told me how to get to the hotel which was situated very close to the Railway Station.
I walked there and was shown my room. On my way to the hotel I had seen an unending stream of people, obviously holiday makers like me, walking purposefully in a certain direction. That made me curious. So as soon as I could I went back down to the street and joined them.We did not walk far before we were at a Lake – it was Lake Keswick. The stream of people was purchasing tickets and getting on a boat which was apparently to go round the lake, making stops on the way. I thought,“Looks interesting. Why not join them?”And I did.Needless to say, the sleepless ride on the trains and the soft rocking of the boat made me sleep through most of that ride. But I had my eyes open for brief moments often enough to see what the area around Keswick was like. On the other side of the lake, across the town, was a virgin forest.
It attracted me.I would go there tomorrow.On many mornings after that I would ask the hotel for a packed lunch, take the boat and get off at the forest. I would take with me my writing and reading material. Here in the forest, I would find a tranquil and comfortable place to sit in a scenic spot; here I would write letters back home to friends and family; I would intersperse this with bouts of reading with some dreaming thrown in. A generous time I spent just to ponder, to wonder and to reflect. One day I saw an advertisement in the hotel for a day trip through the Lake District.
I took this day trip and saw the deep and extensive beauty of that area. One town which was as pretty as a picture was Windermere, situated of course on Lake Windermere. All too soon the first week of my holiday was over.
As planned, I took the train to London to spend the second week with my brother Shatir and our friend Emdee. And to discover London. I was 20-years old. Back to Woodlands When I got back to the ROH I found that I had been put in the Children’s Ward. I was in my second year and was now a SeniorNurse.More of distributing medicines,doing ward rounds with the surgeons,writing daily reports and the like and less of bed making, bed baths and bed pans. The children were delightful. There was Margie, two years old, lying on her back, her body immobile on a metal frame with her legs spread out horizontally at 180°. She had no choice in the matter of course. This was the way that children who were born with both hips dislocated had that condition corrected. Margie would be kept in this position for at least one year. If the hips were not stabilised by this time, she would be put back on another frame for may be another six months.
Then there was “Peter Sunshine” so named by Ward Sister Salmon – pronounced not like the fish, but “sal-mon” taking the “l” into account. We never saw Peter’s parents because they did not visit him. But happy, happy Peter would stand in his cot constantly cooing and smiling at all who would pass by. Sister Salmon was very fond of him. Peter had severe club feet. He had a series of operations to have them corrected. The results each time did not bring the expected correction. And so, it went on. A Surprise: Miss Simon’s Visit to Birmingham and its Impact One day Matron sent for me. I wondered “why now?” It was a very pleasant surprise indeed that she had for me. Miss Mabel Simon, my former school Principal was coming to Birmingham. It was to be the very next day. She had come to London, to Moorfields Eye Hospital to have the “Glaucoma” that was troubling her seen to.She had written to Matron saying that she would like to visit me.
Matron had invited Miss Simon to have lunch with her the next day. Matron thought it would be fitting for me to show Miss Simon round the hospital and take her to the Children’s Ward where I was now working. She would send for me the next day when Miss Simon arrived. I met Miss Simon the next day after she had a cup of tea with Matron. Miss Simon was amazed as I took her to the nurses’ home and I showed her my room. A tiny 6’x 10’. The size did not matter because I had got what I wanted in there. Most important to me was a bedside radio; the cover was white with black dots. It would come on when I lifted the lid and switch off when I closed it.
I showed her the kitchenette where I could make myself a sandwich and a cup of coffee if I did not feel like going to the dining room.
I even showed her the row of bathrooms where a hot, hot, soak was possible after a particularly tiring day. I took her to the wards where I had worked and introduced her to Sister Taylor and to Sister Reilly. And finally, I brought her to the Children’s Ward. Sister Salmon was happy to meet her. I left them to talk alone for a while and then took her down the ward. As the children saw me, they cared not with whom, they started shouting as usual, “Nurse Padi, Nurse Padi,” vying for my attention. She stopped by a bed or two to respond to the children. By then she had seen enough to know who I was and what I was doing as a nurse. We spent a short while on a garden bench in pleasant surroundings.
Miss Simon probed my feelings wanting to know more. I shared with her the dilemma I had faced not long ago.Sister Salmon had called me to her room. She had said to me “Nurse Padi, I speak for some other Sisters as well. We have talked about you and we want to ask you to think again about going on to the physiotherapy school when you finish here. We think you will be a very good nurse. We wish you would consider going on with nursing instead.” This had taken me by surprise.I did not know what to say to her other than thank her, of course. At the end of our twoyear stint student nurses at the ROH had the option of continuing either with three years plus at the physiotherapy school or to go on to the General Hospital in Birmingham and after two years become Registered General Nurses.
I told Miss Simon I had written to my mother and sought her advice. My mother had reminded me that I had decided that I would go back home after my studies were over. She had said the choice I was really making was whether I would spend the rest of my life in Ceylon as a nurse or as a physiotherapist. Put that way, I had no choice in the matter.The nursing profession had no recognition and nursing conditions were very poor.Physiotherapy was a new profession and gave rise to much hope. I shared all this with Miss Simon. I told her at the same time how hard a decision it was to make. I just loved being a nurse.
I took Miss Simon to have lunch with Matron. She left directly after lunch and I never saw her again. She had retired and was back home in Melbourne, Australia,when I returned nearly four years later. I was told constantly by school friends of the special place I had found in Miss Simon’s heart. She would mention me in her prize day report every year without fail, giving an update of my achievements year on year. This made me wonder whether I was thefirst girl from Ladies’ College to have done nursing. I will never know. Happy Times in Northfield Village As nurses, we would work in shifts. Our shift as a day nurse was 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. with a three-hour break either in the morning,afternoon or “an evening off” as we put it, and which was the best of course. We had a day and a half off every week. As a night nurse, we worked from 7 p.m. to 7 a.m. We had our breakfast before we went on duty at night, dinner (which in Ceylon we called lunch) at midnight and supper (that is dinner) when we came off duty in the morning.
You might think it was a topsy-turvy world, but it was not. We just kept to that pattern and slept during the day. We had five days off in a fortnight. It was the Night Sister’s decision whether we would have it in two plus three days or five days at a stretch. If it was five days that I had, you could be sure I was down in London to be with Shatir and Emdee. When we had an evening off, I would go into the city, maybe window shopping or to a cinema. During the short breaks or on a day off, I would go into Northfield Village,maybe a 15-minute walk south down the Bristol Road.
Here there was a “Tobacconist” also called the “Corner shop” or “Newsagent”. This was the first place I would go to in the village. The two ladies inside soon got to know me, greeted me with warm smiles, admired my saree, and made small talk to make me feel at home. Before I knew it, they had observed what I had purchased routinely on my visits – Kit-Kat and Mars Bars, the “Women’s Weekly” and the “Woman and Home” magazines.
As I entered the shop they would have all these ready for me with a, “what more would you like to have, dear?” I went regularly also to the library in the village.
This had a wide selection of books I could choose from. It was not long before the vivacious and friendly librarian came to know me. Her beautiful red hair was unusual. It fascinated me. She helped me choose what turned out always to “be a good read”. On the streets all I met would have a warm smile and a greeting for me.All of which me made say, “thank you destiny, for bringing me here to Northfield and to the Royal Orthopaedic Hospital, the Woodlands.” Recognition There was more to thank Destiny for. The ROH had an annual prize giving at which nurses were recognized for their work performance. At the first prize giving I was surprised to be awarded the first prize for Anatomy. That was my favorite subject.
The second year it was an even greater surprise. The time for it was after I had completed the two years of nursing and had moved to the School of Physiotherapy. One day I had a letter with Matron’s seal on it brought to me. I could not believe my eyes. The ROH had decided to award me the “Silver Medal in Nursing”. This recognized me as having been the second-best nurse over the two past years. Now here was news I had to write home about. My mother of course told Miss Simon. Now she had something to include in her prize-giving report in December that year. Her previous report had mention of the prize.In her letter Matron asked me to come see her.
When I did go, she said that it was traditional for me to say a few words,thanking the hospital. Which, when the timecame, I did. The Gold Medallist was Jenny Ross. Jenny was in the batch before me. She was an exceptionally good nurse. And would you believe it, Jenny had her education at Cheltenham Ladies’ College. From which came the Founders of Ladies’ College, Colombo where I had my education. Which made me think, it is a small world indeed. Farewell to Nursing Two years passed all too soon. It was time to say goodbye to all these lovely people who had made my life at Woodlands a happy one.
There were two groups of people I had to include in my round of farewells.
The first was a small group of three to four. They worked in the “Round Tower” of the Hospital. It was they who had made my 21st birthday a remarkable and happy one. They had made possible a phone call for me from Colombo on this day. Very difficult and therefore scarcely possible in those days.Coordinating with the telephone exchange in Colombo, they connected me to my mother. After we had exchanged a few messages, then each and every member of my family – sisters and brothers and their spouses, nieces and nephews, the whole lot spoke to me. I knew then how fortunate I was to have been the youngest in a family of nine.
The incident went further. Word had got around the hospital about this special happening. I was not alone. What is more, Mahin and Barbara made me a gift of a pretty pearl necklace. One that I treasure to this day. And the Hospital Chef baked me a cake.Which brings me to the second group, the head of which was the Chef. I made a point of going to the kitchen. I met the Chef in his out-sized white peaked cap. And his staff,also in white but wearing smaller caps,decreasing in size according to their rank in the hierarchy. They had made me feel quite special from the first day I came to Woodlands to the last.
On my way from the nurses’ home to the dining room I had to pass the entrance to the kitchen. It seemed to me there had always stood here a lookout when I made my way to breakfast. Because every day the Chef and his staff came out to greet me just as I passed, with smiles and, “how are you today m’dawling?” or “and how are you, me lovlay?” or “oooh, bit cold for you in’t?” These were all delightful people and how I would miss them.
Features
Trump’s tariffs, AKD’s gazette and Sri Lanka’s diplomatic slumber
“We are rather respectable in Colombo. We go to bed fairly early, and we remain there till morning. “
According to Sri Lanka’s diplomatic folklore, the late S.W. R. D. Bandaranaike uttered these words while explaining the reasons for Sri Lanka’s abstention on the UN resolution condemning the Soviet invasion of Hungary. Apparently, SWRD’s foreign ministry officials were asleep at home when the diplomatic cable seeking instructions was received from New York. In those days, there were no cell phones, Internet, or even fax or telex machines. The diplomatic cables were sent through post offices. Decoding them was a slow and time-consuming process. Thus, the government could not provide appropriate instructions to our mission in New York in time, and the Sri Lankan delegation abstained on that sensitive UN vote.
Sri Lanka’s Absence from Section 301 Consultations
But then, how does one explain Sri Lanka’s absence from the crucial bilateral consultation held in Washington by the Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR) during March-April on “Forced Labour” under the Section 301 of the US Trade Act of 1974? Didn’t our foreign and trade ministries send appropriate instructions to Washington in time? Even if the instructions from the foreign ministry were transmitted to our embassy in Washington by pigeon carriers, there was enough time for Sri Lanka to participate in those meetings.
In March, the USTR initiated these 301 investigations on 60 trading partners, and invited all of them for confidential consultations. Out of the 60, 46 participated in these consultations. Sri Lanka was not one of them. Other countries that didn’t participate in these consultations included China, Russia, and Venezuela! In addition to that, the Section 301 Committee conducted a public hearing with interested parties on April 28 and 29. Washington-based diplomats, representatives from few trade ministries as well as representatives from many foreign trade associations and chambers participated in these hearings. Sri Lanka was once again conspicuously absent.
As a result, when the USTR published the proposed forced labour tariffs on June 2nd, Sri Lanka ended up with a 12.5% duty. Pakistani and Indonesian diplomats participated in these consultations and took appropriate follow-up measures, and managed to enter the 10% duty category. As even a threat of a modest tariff hike could disrupt supply chains and reduce competitiveness, particularly in an industry such as garments, I discussed this issue on 15 June and underscored the importance of Sri Lanka’s participation at the next hearing, which was scheduled to be held from July 7th .
Awakening from Diplomatic Slumber and AKD’s Gazette
Fortunately, Sri Lanka finally awoke from weeks of diplomatic slumber, and Ambassador Mahinda Samarasinghe participated in the public hearing on 9 July, and promised, “…. · We have agreed to the text in our negotiations with the USTR on forced labour, …. The gazette as we speak is being printed and I’m getting the gazette tomorrow morning, and the gazette will be shared with USTR as I get it“.
As promised, President Anura Kumara Dissanayake issued a gazette on 10 July banning the imports of goods produced by forced labour. These new regulations are very similar to what Pakistan and Indonesia enacted in April, after their consultations with USTR in March. Why couldn’t we do it in April? Why did we wait till the very last minute?
Challenges ahead
“War is too important to be left to generals alone,” is a famous saying attributed to former French Premier Georges Clemenceau. Similarly, monitoring our main markets is too important to be left to diplomats alone. The United States is the largest single-country market for Sri Lanka. Therefore, Sri Lankan trade chambers and associations should become more proactive in these markets and participate in these events. For example, the chairman of the Pakistani apparel exporters association participated in the April hearings. Similarly, representatives from the Indian Agricultural and Processed Food Products Export Development Authority, the Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry, the Confederation of Indian Industry, and Reliance Industries also participated in July hearings. At an event where each speaker is given only five minutes (strictly enforced), having a number of speakers from a country is an advantage. The presence of industry representatives in these kinds of events also help them understand the market dynamics and the future challenges. This is important, particularly because there will be many more challenges with Trump’s tariffs.
With the gazette issued on 10 July, Sri Lanka has imposed a prohibition on the importation of goods produced with forced labour. Now, the challenge will be to effectively enforce the prohibition. And what are the goods produced with forced labour? The USTR list only focuses on aluminum, cotton, electronics, lithium-ion batteries, rice, and tobacco. However, according to the U.S. Department of Labour, the list is much longer. Hence, this list may change continuously during the next two years and tariffs may fluctuate once again.
So, this is definitely not the time to slumber.
(The writer, a retired public servant, can be reached at senadhiragomi@gmail.com)
by Gomi Senadhira ✍️
Features
Tales of Mystery and Suspense 10 Casino for Sale
After the overwhelming grotesquerie of J K Rowling’s latest Cormoran Strike novel (written, I should have noted, as the others were, under the pseudonym Robert Galbraith), I thought I should return to the world of fun, and also a much shorter description since this thriller moves quickly without the layers of detail that Rowling engages in.
I then move to the second comic thriller by Caryl Brahms and S J Simon. This, their second story to feature Vladimir Stroganoff and Adam Quill, was Casino for Sale, as lunatic a romp as the first, though without the emphasis on the ballet that characterized A Bullet in the Ballet.
This one begins with the impresario Stroganoff buying a casino cheap from Baron Sam de Rabinovich, only to find that it was a rundown place, not the grand casino of La Bazouche, a resort on the Frenc+h Riviera, as he had initially thought. The grand one belonged to Lord Buttonhooke, and Stroganoff could not compete, until he thought of bringing the Ballet Stroganoff to the casino – which of course leads to Buttonhooke deciding to have ballet performances in his Casino too.
Stroganoff invites Quill to visit him, which Quill decides to do since he has left Scotland Yard, having come into a legacy. No one believes this, and he has to face questions as to what he did to have been sacked, with sympathy for having been found out.
The day he arrives in La Bazouche there is a murder, of a vitriolic critic called Citrolo, in Stroganoff’s office. He had been going to write a damning review of the opening night of the ballet and Stroganoff, when he realizes Citrolo cannot be swayed, drugs him and dictates the review himself to the papers. He leaves Citrolo sleeping and finds him shot the next morning, whereupon he decides to muddy the waters and leave a suicide note and lots of other murder weapons. So much overkill, as it were, of course ensures that he is arrested.
But the excitable French detective who makes the arrest follows up his suggestion that Buttonhooke was also involved, and so the two casino owners find themselves in cells next door to each other, with the detective Gustave quite happy to provide creature comforts for a fee.
Quill decides he must investigate, and finds Gustave most cooperative, since he has a laid back attitude to work. So it is Quill that finds a notebook which makes it clear Citrolo is an accomplished blackmailer, and that there are lots of possible murderers, including Stroganoff’s croupier, who was crooked, Rabinovich, who was now working for Buttonhooke, a confidence trickster called Kurt Kukumber, whose prospectus for a dud gold mine was found in the office and Prince Alexis Artishok who was engaged in a deal to buy diamonds from the ballerina Dyra Dyrakova.
Stroganoff had been trying to get Dyrakova to dance for him, but having done so previously she had refused. But then to Stroganoff’s chagrin she agreed to dance for Buttonhooke. The clearly crooked Artishok had told Buttonhooke’s mistress Sadie Souse, who was not very bright, that Dyrakova possessed diamonds she was willing to sell cheap, and Sadie was determined to have them.
Quill meanwhile finds out that there was a secret passage to Stroganoff’s office, the obvious solution to what had begun as a locked room mystery, and that this was known by almost everyone apart from Stroganoff himself. And then Rabinovich is murdered, just after Gustave had released his two original suspects, leading him to blame Quill for having insisted on that and thus allowing them to kill again.
Soon afterwards Dyrakova arrives, and the town is full of posters announcing that she will appear in the casinos, elaborate posters for either one, since Stroganoff is determined that she will dance for him, and if she does not come willingly, he has devised a scheme to make her do so unwillingly. So, though Buttonhooke has her taken off to his yacht immediately she arrives at the station, Quill along with Arenskaya gets her into a launch and to Stroganoff’s casino, where she performs to tumultuous applause, not knowing for whom she is dancing.
When Quill asked her about the diamonds, she said she had sold them long ago, and that gave Quill the solution to the mystery. Rabinovich had known about this, and Artishok had killed him to prevent Sadie learning it from him, he had killed Citrolo who had recognized him for an accomplished card sharper, not a Russian prince at all. But before he is arrested, he gets away in a boat, and the police launch that pursues him is on the point of catching him up when it runs out of petrol.
Again, lots of excitement, and entertaining references – Gustave grows marrows – and if not quite as brilliant as its predecessor, Casino was certainly a delightful read.
Features
The challenge of being positive about SAARC
It was a few years back that a former President of Sri Lanka took it on himself to pronounce SAARC ‘dead’. Since then there have been other sections of Sri Lankan opinion that have joined the critics of SAARC and taken the solemn stance that SAARC has indeed died what may be called a natural death.
Their fatalism is understandable. SAARC has failed to meet at heads of government or state level for the past several years to take the SAARC process notably forward. Regional cooperation has more or less been only an appealing idea. No substantive concrete projects have taken off to make the idea a hard reality. ‘Inner paralysis’ seems to be SAARC’s lot. Hence the fatalism in these circles.
However, being one of the worst cash-strapped regions of the world and a teemingly populated one with people virtually left to their devices, what choices do the ‘SAARC Eight’ have other than to try their best to band together and continue with their cooperation efforts, however small they may be?
There is no escaping the mounting debt trap for many of these countries and bankrupt Sri Lanka is a glaring example, but ‘throwing in the towel’ and abandoning themselves entirely to the diktats of the strongest economies and their agencies will prove a ‘living death’ for many countries in the SAARC fold.
The gains may be meagre but giving-up on SAARC cooperation in full would prove self-defeating for the organization and South Asia. Right now, the collective intention ought to be to salvage what the region could from the tenuous cooperative efforts. Moreover, such initiatives could go some distance to generate a degree of goodwill among the Eight and help in sustaining a dialogue process.
Given this backdrop it proved ‘a stich in time’ for the Regional Centre for Strategic Studies (RCSS), Colombo, to recently host the SAARC Secretary General Ambassador Md. Golam Sarwar to a round table discussion on the unifying potential of SAARC and its future possibilities, besides other related issue areas.
Held on June 24th and moderated by RCSS Executive Director and former ambassador Ravinatha Aryasinha, the forum brought together a vibrant, wide ranging audience comprising academicians, diplomats, senior public servants, civil society activists and many others. Following the presentation by Ambassador Golam Sarwar titled, ‘Reigniting SAARC: Achievements, Challenges and the Way Ahead’, a lively Q&A followed.
The above forum could be described as an act of lighting the proverbial ‘candle’ rather than ‘cursing the darkness.’ It surely is a ‘darkness’ that could be seen as daunting considering that the region’s pivotal powers, India and Pakistan, are failing to act in a spirit of accord but are engaged in bitter finger-pointing on a number of questions of vital importance to SAARC.
On the other hand, what is the rest of the region doing to bring the above sides together? It is disappointing that to date the rest of SAARC has failed to launch a major diplomatic drive to bring peace between the feuding regional heavyweights. It needs to act without delay and establish its earnestness and this effort would need to prove SAARC’s staying power in the unfolding months and even years.
In assessing SAARC’s seeming failure local opinion in particular has failed to factor in what could be described as weak leadership. Since Sheikh Mujibur Rahman of Bangladesh, the founding father of SAARC, the region has failed to produce a visionary leader who could advance the SAARC cause with charisma and drive.
Among other reasons, weak leadership accounts considerably for the faltering and stuttering status, as it were, of SAARC. Badly needed are leaders who could go the extra mile, think less of narrow national interests and work diligently towards the collective well being of the region but SAARC’s millions of ordinary people have been made to wait in vain for leaders of such stature. Instead, they have been burdened with politicians who seem to be relishing the apparently moribund state of SAARC.
Looking back, it could be said that it was the dynamic leadership factor that led to the launching of the Non-Aligned Movement and for its sustenance for a few decades. True, it could be seen in some quarters that NAM is no more, but as in the case of SAARC, the former too has been unfortunate to be burdened over the years with politicians who lack the vision and drive to unflaggingly advance the fortunes of the South. NAM and SAARC lack the dynamism and vision of leaders of the stature of Jawaharlal Nehru, for example, to give them the required guidance and intellectual depth.
The reasons are complex for there not being among us currently political leaders with the vision and the steadfast commitment to advance the legitimate interests of the South. However, it could be stated with conviction that the majority of Southern leaders have too easily caved in to the demands of the global North and its financial agencies.
These leaders have failed to see, for instance, that the largely market economy oriented Northern governments would not view with favour a centrist economic model that attaches priority to the interests of the dis-empowered publics of the South. This realization ought to have dawned on the current government in Sri Lanka, for instance, some while ago but it has no choice but to abide by IMF dictates since economic survival at present is unthinkable without the latter’s succour.
Accordingly for SAARC this should be the time for some soul-searching. Priority needs to be attached to ending the feuding between India and Pakistan since at present the material fortunes of the region hinge largely on these regional giants giving peaceful relations among them a try. This is no easy challenge to meet but some daring, visionary diplomacy needs to take hold among the rest of SAARC.
There is some sense in SAARC bringing the peoples of the region together through programs that address their best collective interests. A meeting of minds among SAARC nations could enable SAARC and its agencies to build a region-wide people’s movement for progressive political and economic change that could in turn lead to the region’s political leaders sensitizing themselves more to the neglected needs of their publics.
However, the time is ‘now’ for the initiation of these progressive changes and the voice of SAARC well wishers would need to drown out those of their critics.
-
Features7 days agoPrison riots and politics: NPP’s biggest challenge and Sri Lanka’s biggest opportunity
-
Features4 days agoDirty Money
-
Sports7 days agoThe banker who rescued Sri Lankan cricket
-
Editorial7 days agoMuch ado about crime: Fish or cut bait
-
Features7 days agoMore on Saudi Arabia: ARAMCO and beyond
-
News2 days agoMoney laundering case against Yoshitha, fixed for pre-trial conference
-
Midweek Review4 days agoThe sordid tale of theft and tragedy at Finance Ministry
-
Latest News4 days agoOil prices hit 1-month high as US-Iran attacks dim Strait of Hormuz outlook

