Connect with us

Business

Is Sri Lanka heading for authoritarian statism?

Published

on

Two affected sections in SL’s economic crisis: consumers and small traders. (File pic)

by Seneka Abeyratne

The immediate future of Sri Lanka is extremely bleak as the economic and political crises are continuing to reinforce each other in a synergistic manner. Because the government is totally bankrupt and unable to meet its external debt-service obligations, it is having difficulty securing bridging loans to finance imports of essential goods. Hence, a viable alternative to bridging finance should be found as soon as possible.

Since foreign currency reserves are negligible, government should seriously consider debt to equity swaps with bilateral donors (such as China, India and Japan) as well as bona fide private creditors to boost external reserves and enable the private sector to restore the supply-chain for essential goods and services. Desperate times call for desperate solutions. Government should seek to obtain a minimum of $ 25 billion through quick debt to equity swaps. Top contenders in this regard are ports, airports, Sri Lankan Airlines, large state-owned plantations, and other state-owned facilities or lands which could be utilized by foreign investors for a variety of productive economic activities. As the old saying goes, “We can’t have our cake and eat it.”

Large fiscal deficits create

macroeconomic instability

The fiscal deficit in Sri Lanka increased from 11.1% in 2020 to 12.2% in 2021, largely due to a decrease in the revenue + grants to GDP ratio from 9.1% to 8.7% and an increase in the expenditure to GDP ratio from 20.2% to 20.1% over the same period. This is not a sustainable fiscal path, which is why government is resorting to excessive money printing, thereby adding fuel to the fire of galloping inflation. The last time Sri Lanka registered a fiscal deficit of under 5% was in 1977. Large fiscal deficits create macroeconomic instability and discourage foreign direct investment (FDI). No country in Asia has prospered without a stable macroeconomic climate and substantial FDI inflows on a sustained basis.

Key elements of a macroeconomic

stabilization program

Both a stable and consistent macroeconomic policy framework and a robust business climate are necessary for attracting significant inflows of export-oriented FDI on a sustained basis. In this regard, transaction costs should be eliminated wherever possible. A macroeconomic stabilization program should focus on fiscal consolidation in the medium term. This will include (a) a substantial increase in direct and indirect tax revenue; (b) rationalization of recurrent and capital expenditures; and (c) the exercise of fiscal discipline in all public institutions. The program should be accompanied by a comprehensive external debt-restructuring exercise with a view towards attaining debt sustainability in the medium term. The relevance of debt to equity swaps should be critically assessed in this context.

On the revenue side, key policy reforms would include restoration of VAT and income tax to their pre-2019 levels and measures for achieving a substantial increase in the income tax to GDP ratio, which was only 1.8% in 2021. On the recurrent expenditure side, downsizing of the public service (including the military), restructuring/privatization of loss-making state-owned business enterprises (in all sectors of the economy), and a significant reduction of government subsidies could be viewed as three critical policy reforms. In respect of capital expenditure, the need for focusing future expenditures on infrastructure for supporting significant improvements in education, health, and export performance is critical.

On the monetary side, maintaining a flexible, market-float policy for the exchange rate is vital for stimulating exports, enhancing FDI inflows and foreign remittances, and promoting tourism. These are the main avenues for boosting foreign currency reserves in the medium to long term. Maintaining a tight monetary policy vis-à-vis high interest rates is also vital for reducing inflation and enhancing foreign capital inflows.

Market distortions retard

economic growth

Removal of market distortions is critical for stimulating increased private-sector development and for achieving a rapid and sustainable economic recovery. At present, imports are heavily controlled and regulated by the state due to the severe dollar crisis. However, without a liberal trade and investment policy, the economy is likely to remain stagnant as a wide range of imported intermediate goods are required by entrepreneurs in the manufacturing, processing and service sectors. Imports of intermediate goods (including fuel, fertilizer and agrochemicals) as well as consumer goods linked to tourism should hence be liberalized.

Import bans are tantamount to protectionism, which tends to drastically inhibit GDP growth. Protectionism discourages FDI inflows as well as foreign remittances through the banking system. Protectionism does not stimulate economic growth. On the contrary, it creates economic stagnation and widespread poverty and underemployment.

The Daily Mirror of July 26th reported that government may restrict fuel imports for the next 12 months due to the foreign exchange crisis. This will do more harm than good as it will worsen macroeconomic imbalances. A far better option is to liberalize fuel imports so as to create space for the private sector to supply the markets.

Generally speaking, with a few exceptions, the market, not the state, should determine the prices of goods and services available to consumers. A significant number of public enterprises and services would become profitable if they were exempted from price controls and permitted to adopt a cost-reflective pricing mechanism.

Authoritarian statism

What we are currently witnessing in Sri Lanka is the rise of authoritarian statism – a protectionist, state-dominated economic growth model similar to the one introduced by the Sirimavo Bandaranaike regime of the 1970s. The experiment proved to be a colossal failure, which is why this inward-looking, statist regime got booted out of power in 1977.

The private sector is the engine of growth, not the state. The shackling of the private sector is not the solution to the current economic crisis. What is needed at this time are deep structural and market reforms aimed at promoting private sector development as well as improved productivity across all spheres of economic activity so that Sri Lanka could become globally competitive in a wide range of exports.

The author is a retired economist/international consultant to ADB MANILA. He can be contacted at snabeyratne@gmail.com



Business

Prudent policy adjustments could help manage a local growth rate drop – CBSL Governor

Published

on

Dr. Nandalal Weerasinghe: ‘Growth drop manageable’.

‘Sri Lanka recorded a growth of five percent or more but due to the Middle East crisis this growth rate could be expected to drop. However, this decline could be managed effectively through the adoption of prudent policy adjustments, Central Bank Governor Dr. Nandalal Weerasinghe said at the monthly CBSL monetary policy review meeting. The meet was held at the CBSL head office in Colombo yesterday.

The Governor said that the CBSL had decided to increase the Overnight Policy Rate (OPR) by 100 basis points, bringing it to 8.75 percent.

Following this adjustment, the Standing Deposit Facility Rate (SDFR) and the Standing Lending Facility Rate (SLFR), which are linked to the OPR, have been increased to 8.25 percent and 9.25 percent, respectively. The decision comes after a careful evaluation of evolving domestic and global macroeconomic conditions, Dr Weerasinghe explained.

Dr. Weerasinghe added: ‘The tightening of the monetary policy stance is primarily driven by mounting inflationary pressures. Heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have kept global commodity prices, especially petroleum, elevated.

‘This has led to sharp upward adjustments in domestic energy prices, pushing Sri Lanka’s year-on-year headline inflation to 5.4 percent in April 2026.

‘While the recent spike is largely supply-driven, strengthening domestic demand, evidenced by continued credit expansion, credit-driven imports and robust economic activity—has further accelerated short-term inflation expectations.

‘The external sector has also faced amplified headwinds in recent weeks. A widening merchandise trade deficit, driven by increased fuel import costs and a slowdown in tourism earnings, resulted in a modest external current account surplus for the first quarter of 2026.

‘Additionally, speculative activities led to notable depreciation pressures on the Sri Lankan rupee, though conditions have since stabilized. Despite these pressures and ongoing foreign debt servicing, Sri Lanka’s Gross Official Reserves stood at a resilient USD 6.8 billion by the end of April 2026, a figure that includes a swap facility from the People’s Bank of China.

‘Looking ahead, headline inflation is projected to remain above the Central Bank’s target of 5 percent in the near term before stabilizing.

‘To counter potential second-round effects on inflation from energy price hikes and unchecked private sector credit growth, the Board deemed a restrictive policy stance necessary to maintain long-term domestic price stability. Upcoming multilateral inflows and government stabilization measures are expected to support the external sector and we will continue to monitor incoming data ahead of the next scheduled monetary policy review on July 22, 2026.’

By Hiran H Senewiratne

Continue Reading

Business

New Tilapia processing centre opens economic frontiers for Northern women

Published

on

At the opening ceremony of the Tilapia Fish Semi-Processing Centre in Iranamadu, Kilinochchi (L-R) Haridas Fernando, Group Manager – Agribusiness, Cargills Ceylon PLC; Ms. Joni Simpson, Director, ILO Country Office for Sri Lanka and the Maldives; Tormod Nuland, Second Secretary (Political Section), Embassy of Norway to India, Sri Lanka and Bhutan; Thomas Kring, Chief Technical Adviser, ILO Country Office for Sri Lanka and the Maldives; and Ms. Akanksha Khullar, Programme Officer, Embassy of Norway to India, Sri Lanka and Bhutan.

A new tilapia culture-based production and semi-processing centre launched in Iranamadu, Kilinochchi, is expected to boost climate-resilient aquaculture, strengthen rural livelihoods and create sustainable employment opportunities for women in Sri Lanka’s Northern Province.

The facility, launched by the International Labour Organization in partnership with Cargills (Ceylon) PLC and supported by the Government of Norway, is being hailed as a significant milestone in inclusive economic development and inland fisheries advancement.

Located in the Iranamadu freshwater fisheries hub, the centre has been established under the ILO’s Promoting Advancement of Vulnerable Persons and Enterprises (PAVE) Project, aimed at promoting climate-resilient livelihoods among vulnerable communities, particularly women and persons with disabilities.

Speaking at the launch, ILO Country Director for Sri Lanka and the Maldives, Joni Simpson, said the initiative demonstrated the power of partnerships in advancing social justice and decent employment.

“This processing centre represents what can be achieved when communities, government, development partners and the private sector work together. It contributes not only to strengthening aquaculture value chains but also to expanding access to decent and productive employment, especially for women and marginalized groups,” she said.

The centre is expected to generate new jobs in fish handling, processing and quality assurance while providing training in food safety standards, value addition and enterprise development. Officials said this would significantly increase women’s participation in the aquaculture value chain in the Northern Province.

Representing the Norwegian Government, Tormod Nuland said Norway’s continued support for livelihood projects in the North reflected its commitment to gender equality, inclusivity and climate resilience.

“Illustrating the success of long-standing cooperation with the ILO, the new tilapia processing unit is a key initiative that will help strengthen socio-economic conditions for communities in the Northern Province,” he said.

Cargills officials noted that the project marked the company’s first major venture into inland fisheries development after years of engagement with agricultural and dairy farming communities in the North.

Group Manager Agribusiness at Cargills, Haridas Fernando, said the company saw immense potential in developing the tilapia industry as an affordable and nutritious protein source for Sri Lankan consumers.

“We are pleased to partner with the ILO on this important initiative to support the inland fisheries sector while strengthening livelihoods for small-scale fishing communities,” he said.

The initiative also strengthens market access for the Iranamadu Freshwater Fishermen’s Cooperative Society by linking smallholder fisher communities with private sector markets and national retail networks.

Officials said the project would continue under the ILO’s Generating Resilient Opportunities for Work (GROW) programme, funded by the Governments of Australia and Norway, with the aim of expanding climate-resilient and market-oriented livelihood systems across the Northern Province.

The GROW project builds on more than a decade of interventions under the ILO’s Jobs for Peace and Resilience Programme and focuses on sustainable employment creation, private sector partnerships and social empowerment for vulnerable communities.

By Ifham Nizam

Continue Reading

Business

Bourse indices dip as West Asian tensions continue to simmer

Published

on

As West Asian tensions continued to simmer, the All Share Price Index moved down by 189.63 points, while the more liquid S&P SL20 went down by 36.97 points.

Turnover stood at Rs 4.93 billion with four crossings. Those crossings were: Softlogic Life Insurance 33.8 million shares crossed to the tune of Rs 3 billion at a per share value of Rs 92, HNB 316,889 shares crossed for Rs 125.2 million; its shares traded at Rs 395, HNB (Non-Voting) 318,199 shares crossed to the tune of Rs 105 million; its shares sold at Rs 330 and Lanka IOC 200,000 shares crossed for Rs 27.7 million; its shares traded at Rs 138.50.

In the retail market companies that mainly contributed to the turnover were; LOLC Holdings Rs 116.5 million (207 900 shares traded), Softlogic Life Insurance Rs 112.3 million (1.2 million shares traded), Commercial Bank 78.2 million (380,000 shares traded), Overseas Reality Rs 64 million (1.3 million shares traded), Sampath Bank Rs 48.9 million (340,000 shares traded), CIC Holdings (Non-Voting) Rs 46.5 million (1.7 million shares traded) and JKH Rs 46 million (2.3 million shares traded). During the day 94.3 million share volumes changed hands in 22097 transactions.

It is said that 75 percent of the turnover came from Softlogic Life Insurance which amounted to more than Rs 3 billion. Therefore, the Insurance sector led the market while the banking sector, especially Commercial Bank and HNB, performed well.

Main contributors to the ASPI were DFCC Bank (up 0.75 percent at Rs 135.00 ), Lanka Ashok Leyland (up 7.38 percent at Rs 3,050.00 ), and Tokyo Cement Company (Lanka) (up 2.00 percent at Rs 92.00 ).

Hayleys (down 1.78 percent at 234.00 rupees), Melstacorp (down 0.53 percent at Rs 186.25 ), Sunshine Holdings (down 3.49 percent at Rs 30.40), LB Finance (down 3.44 percent at Rs 161.25 ), and Dialog Axiata (down 1.25 percent at Rs 39.40 ) were top negative contributors.

Lanka Ashok Leyland announced a first and final proposed dividend of Rs 30 per share for the financial year ended March 31, 2026.

The Lighthouse Hotel has also declared a final dividend of Rs 3 per share for the financial year ended March 31, 2026, subject to shareholder approval at its Annual General Meeting on June 30, 2026.

Yesterday the rupee was quoted at Rs322.00/323.50 to the US dollar in the spot market , stronger from Rs 325.50/327.00 the previous day, dealers said, while bond yields were quoted higher following the rate hike.

The telegraphic transfer rate for Sri Lanka’s rupee against the US dollar was 321.50 buying, 330.50 selling.

By Hiran H Senewiratne

Continue Reading

Trending