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Is Catastrophic Collapse Imminent?

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by Kumar David

An optimist would venture to say that an economic catastrophe is not imminent, using the adjective imminent literally. He would be emboldened to make this remark because a restructuring deal, maybe a tough one, seems likely to come out of the negotiations with the IMF. Since all other lenders take their cue from the IMF thanks to its expertise and experience, Sri Lanka is likely to clinch agreements of different forms with China, India and Japan; life will go on. The country seems important enough for international actors such as India, China, America, Britain, Japan and the QUAD to be concerned about; in the case of India strategic concern is natural. America threatened war if Cuba stationed Soviet nuclear missiles, and now Russia is apoplectic at the thought of NATO getting its fingers around its neck via Ukraine, Finland and Sweden. No great or regional power will allow foreign bases near its land borders or its littoral waters. India’s anxiety is no surprise but such concerns should not be a passage to America and Europe. Actually, Lanka has little relevance to the Quad strategy of encircling China and is irrelevant to NATO’s scheme to suffocate Russia. The so-called Indian Ocean strategic zone too is a myth.

Therefore, my view is that the ongoing flurry is not primarily strategic or about world-power relations; the spurt of foreign interest is political and psychological. The psychological facet is that though we know we are a bunch of s.o.bs, foreigners, poor suckers, have affection for this island, and believe it or not its undeserving people. Let’s not spoil this advantage; let’s keep the charm of genuine non-alignment alive. Competition for mating-rights gets us, petrol, cooking-gas, milk-powder, pharmaceuticals and dhal. It would have been helpful if we had slaughtered fewer Tamils and now refrain from harassing Muslims on trumped-up charges. Lanka is no dream democracy; it is the site of militant and state-terrorism and crass military-police human rights abuse at the instigation of the JR, Premadasa Snr. and Mahinda regimes. It has been a locale of brazen plunder by political leaders, and not only in the (Raja)Paksa era. Racism is widespread among the people, but then ethnic intolerance is a global pandemic.

This is all true but there is another crucial aspect. Lanka is one of few post-colonial outposts where constitutional governance, admittedly imperfect, survives. Our giant neighbour India is another. This is different from Burma, Pakistan, Cambodia, Thailand (never colonised) and 50+ countries across Africa, Central Asia and Latin America. Hence my thesis is: India and the West, though they will be tough on economic reforms (IMF, West) and political changes (India), will not allow Lanka to collapse into anarchy and chaos. The uncles and aunties crowding over our crib will throw a lifeline before we asphyxiate. Can you imagine India, the West or China standing by and doing nothing if Lanka sinks into bedlam? We do not deserve a reprieve, but international political and psychological concerns will play out to our profit to prevent catastrophic meltdown. This is my hypothesis; let’s see if events prove the hunch correct.

However, this hypothesis does not allow conclusions to be drawn about politics or the traumatic fuel crisis of this (late June) moment; fuel is the litmus test that will decide whether RW’s administration survives. So far it has been paralysed and it has failed to inspire confidence that it has a way out. It must stop deceiving the public about the state of the fuel supply-chain. It will have to find an immediate fuel fix if mounting violence outside petrol stations is to be contained. This is the moment’s do-or-die challenge.

Of course, our congenital problems will persist but sudden death will likely be averted for now, that this till the IMF negotiations are finalised and implemented. Three IMF teams visited the country, one examining fiscal balance and seeking to restore a measure of equality between government expenditure and revenue and a second looking broadly at public finances (money supply, debt, banking, financial stability, social welfare). The third team worked on debt restructuring and interacted with legal advisors cum consultants hired by the government, Lazard and Clifford Chance. Chance is a London based law firm; Lazard engages in asset management, financial services and is also an investment bank with offices in New York, Paris and London. Judged by conventional norms, we have a strong squad on our side.

The wisest stance for Parliament and the opposition (SJB, TNA and JVP-NPF) to adopt at this juncture is to allow these negotiations to proceed and do nothing to disrupt them. Walking out of parliament when critical negotiations about the country’s financial destiny are in full-swing and the 21st Amendment (maybe renamed 22?) is about to be tabled, is both imprudent and irresponsible. The protocols imposed by the IMF could, at worst, be a repletion of its old Structural Adjustment designs: laissez-faire (nearly unchecked free-markets as in JR, Premadasa Snr times), pro-business, privatisation and foreign capital oriented, inimical to state participation in the economy, hostile to state spending on welfare (health and education) and pushing for labour-market reform (easier firing, lowering real wages). To be fair however we have to wait and see, and some changes to Lanka’s economic structures are in any case justified. RW’s natural inclinations would be to go along with right-wing, market-oriented proposals.

21A (22A?) now finalised and about to be tabled in Parliament is defective; too much power retained by the president despite substantial pruning. Instead of debating and discussing these two urgent matters in the House and from there taking them to the public arena, for the Opposition to walk out of Parliament is an unbelievable act of stupidity. I am surprised Anura, Vijitha Herath and Harini fell for this senseless stunt. They must return forthwith and address the tasks that await them; that is, critically examining the protocols agreed with the IMF and proposing amendments to 21 (22) A.

The RW government should be given the space to work through this emergency (EX) period when the country is in intensive care (say a month or two), but this is not what RW seems to have in his mind. He speaks of remaining in office for much longer: “Once we have established a firm economic foundation you (the people) can hand over power to any political party you wish”. This could be one year, or maybe he has it in mind to hang on till the November 2024 (Presidential) and August 2025 (Parliamentary) elections. RW would then be governing without a mandate from the people (reasonable during an existential crisis such as now) for an extended period; this is unreasonable.

Another matter is that the emergency medications that Lanka will be forced to swallow, whether it likes it or not, to secure urgent foreign debt restructuring via IMF and space from foreign creditors, will not be much different whether Ranil Wickremesinghe or Vladimir Lenin is PM. We are in such a mess that we have to grab any rope that is thrown to us. That’s why I say, allow Ranil to steer during the emergency (EX) period – which madman wants to shoot the pilot in mid-air halfway through a flight?

RW has his known proclivities and policy preferences and some will dovetail with anticipated IMF protocols. We can criticise but may have no option but to accept some. But allowing RW to set the economic direction of the country in next medium-term (MT) say three-year period is another matter; his remit has no electoral mandate. He has a right to his preferences and proclivities but no right to impose them on the country without a mandate. I make a crucial distinction between the period of negotiations with the IMF (the emergency EX phase) and a three to five-year MT economic, financial and social programme that requires a mandate. This is the distinction between trauma-therapy urgently administered during EX and longer-term recuperation strategies to rebuild economy and society.

Will a government elected in say one year be any better? Will there be a smaller number of donkeys and crooks? Have people learnt their lesson? There is a convicted felon seated in Cabinet right now – Mr President and Mr Prime Minister please explain. A multi-billion-rupee tax-dodger has been made a Minister. The voters of Ratnapura returned a convicted murderer to parliament. But this is what we call democracy – the right of the people to choose which bunch of vampires will suck their blood next time. Unfortunately, there is no acceptable alternative to democracy; a one-party state will not survive without open revolt because of our post-Donoughmore past and also because our national ethos and psychology will not accept it. The other option, a military regime will be hell on earth, so no more mention of that.

Why has the Lankan economy collapsed? Depending on how far back you go and your preferred ideology the answers are many, and all true. The following are the most frequently adduced.

* National consumption far exceeded production for seventy years and we ate our way into debt.

* Excess consumption was financed in part by foreign borrowing which plunged the country into the black-hole of ‘dollar indebtedness’.

* Export earnings fell far short of import expenditure (chronic balance-of-payments deficit).

* Government finances were out of kilter, with revenue falling way short of expenditure and the indebtedness was paid for by reckless rupee printing (chronic fiscal-deficit).

* Stupid projects by Rajapaksa regimes (Mattala Airport, Hambantota Harbour, Lotus Tower, Hambantota Stadium, show pieces named after Mahinda Rajapaksa) bankrupted the country.

* These projects were financially wasteful and executed either as prestige ventures or to collect commissions from contractors. These are part of staggering corruption activities amounting to billions of dollars perpetrated by the Rajapaksa Clan, re-elected with a massive majority!

* Breakdown of the rule of law and judicial independence.

No country can withstand such an inferno of epidemics, pestilences and plagues. It is all of this that has come together in 2022 to sink the ship. If it survives for the few EX-months, then the next step is elections to empower a government for MT. My preference is social-democracy with a well thought out dirigisme (state directed) component in its economic policy package. If it is necessary to wait till next time round for the electorate to mature and elect this option, let’s wait till vox populi comes around. Most likely a centrist or centre-right alliance will be elected in an election right now (options, Sajith, Ranil-Sajith, Dulles-led SLPP). Their right or centre-right policy spaces will be defined by terms like, market-oriented, business-friendly, private-sector led development, privatisation, restructured labour-market, FDI oriented, and rather harsh on the grassroots regarding welfare and subsidies.

A social-democratic alternative will have to borrow some of this but the difference will be in implementation and orientation. Eran Wickramaratne in “A Just Tax System” Daily Mirror 27 June writes in a vein where social-democrats seeking to direct the economy (dirigisme) into just directions cannot ask for more (Was he ever a Party Member!). In recent decades, lines have blurred everywhere between avant-garde liberalism and 21st-Century social-democracy.

This brings me to a last thought. The LSSP’s Tissa is sharp and intelligent; what on earth is he doing with that spent force Vasu and two jackals Wimal and Udaya? Isn’t it as clear as daylight that the LSSP must move over and align itself with the new left (JVP, FSP etc)? Yes, yes there’s 1971 and 1989 and the five-lessons, and etc and etc. Who doesn’t know all this? I wrote the first left critique of the JVP (Ajith Samaranayake did a brilliant translation) which the Party published 50 years ago. But it’s not that same world any longer Comrade!



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Will new UGC Circular 06/2026 strengthen or weaken open and distance learning in Sri Lanka?

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Balancing Quality Assurance with Educational Access

Sri Lanka’s higher education system has long sought to balance two equally important national objectives: maintaining academic quality while expanding access to university education. Open and Distance Learning (ODL) has been one of the country’s most successful mechanisms for achieving this balance, particularly for working adults, teachers, government officers, rural communities, and thousands of students who were unable to enter conventional degree programmes. In addition to undergraduate and postgraduate degrees, sub-degree qualifications such as Certificate, Diploma, and Higher Diploma programmes have gained remarkable momentum over the past two decades. These programmes have become increasingly popular by providing flexible, affordable, and employment-oriented learning opportunities for school leavers, working professionals, and aspiring entrepreneurs.

With the introduction of the new UGC regulatory framework, these sub-degree programmes also come under a more comprehensive system of oversight. Strengthening quality assurance and protecting academic standards are legitimate policy objectives that can enhance the credibility and recognition of university qualifications. However, the expansion of centralised regulation also raises important questions regarding institutional autonomy, flexibility, and the future growth of Open and Distance Learning.

Globally, higher education is increasingly moving towards greater institutional autonomy, decentralised decision-making, flexible programme delivery, and innovation supported by robust quality assurance mechanisms. Sri Lanka, however, appears to be adopting a more centralised regulatory approach. While greater oversight may improve accountability and consistency, excessive centralization risks reducing institutional flexibility, slowing innovation, increasing administrative burdens, and limiting the ability of universities to respond quickly to emerging educational and labour market needs. The challenge, therefore, is not whether regulation is necessary, but whether it achieves an appropriate balance between ensuring quality and preserving the autonomy and adaptability that have been central to the success of Open and Distance Learning.

Greatest Concern

The greatest concern is whether the new regulatory framework may unintentionally reduce access to higher education, particularly in regional universities that have historically served disadvantaged communities. Universities such as Sabaragamuwa, Uva Wellassa, Rajarata, Wayamba, South Eastern, Eastern and several others were established not only to decentralize higher education but also to stimulate regional development. Their external degree and distance learning programmes have become an important bridge connecting universities with rural populations.

These programmes have enabled thousands of school teachers, public servants, private-sector employees, farmers, entrepreneurs, and young adults from economically disadvantaged families to obtain university qualifications without relocating to major cities. For many families, Open and Distance Learning is not simply another educational option, but also it is the only realistic pathway to higher education.

The sustainability of many Open and Distance Learning (ODL) programmes has faced challenges for several years. Some programmes have struggled to demonstrate strong labour market outcomes, particularly where curricula have not evolved in line with changing industry needs. However, this is only part of the picture. In many disciplines, especially agriculture, agribusiness, community development, media and vocationally oriented fields, diploma and certificate holders have become successful entrepreneurs, agricultural extension workers, and local development leaders. Therefore, the value of external education should not be assessed solely by graduate employment statistics but also by its contribution to entrepreneurship, lifelong learning, rural development, and community empowerment.

Less Discussed Challenge

Another, less discussed challenge is the institutional attitude towards external education. Over the years, Open and Distance Learning programmes have sometimes faced resistance from sections of the university community, including internal student groups, some academics, administrators, and policymakers. Concerns over resource allocation, workload, infrastructure, and institutional priorities have occasionally created tensions between internal and external programmes. Rather than viewing these programmes as complementary components of a university’s mission, they have sometimes been perceived as competing for limited resources. Such perspectives can discourage collaboration and prevent universities from making the most effective use of shared academic expertise, facilities, and infrastructure. As publicly funded institutions, universities have a responsibility to maximise the use of their academic resources for the benefit of society. The challenge is not to choose between internal and external education, but to develop policies that promote equitable resource sharing, mutual respect, and efficient utilization of facilities while maintaining high academic standards for all learners.

Academic staff engaged in Open and Distance Learning (ODL) programmes frequently receive relatively modest remuneration considering the substantial additional responsibilities involved, including course design, online and face-to-face teaching, travel, student mentoring, assessment, and quality assurance activities. In recent years, higher personal income tax rates on additional earnings have further reduced the financial attractiveness of external teaching for many academics. Consequently, some experienced lecturers are becoming increasingly reluctant to participate in ODL programmes, creating a growing challenge for universities in recruiting and retaining qualified teaching staff. If this trend continues without appropriate policy interventions, it may adversely affect the long-term sustainability, quality, and expansion of external education.

There are also concerns that the implementation of the new UGC circular with its additional regulatory requirements and financial ceilings on programme operations and staff remuneration, where applicable may further reduce institutional flexibility and academic participation. If these concerns are not carefully addressed through consultation and periodic policy review, the combined effects of increasing regulatory constraints, financial disincentives, and declining academic participation could undermine the future growth and sustainability of Sri Lanka’s Open and Distance Learning sector. At the same time, programme operating costs have increased substantially due to inflation, technology investments, administrative expenses, and taxation. Consequently, tuition fees have risen, making university education increasingly difficult for lower-income students.

If additional regulatory requirements significantly increase administrative complexity or operating costs without corresponding institutional support, there is a legitimate concern that some programmes may become financially unsustainable. The result could be a gradual reduction in course offerings, fewer academic staff willing to participate, declining student enrolments, and ultimately the closure of programmes that have served rural Sri Lanka for decades. Such an outcome would conflict with one of the fundamental purposes of public universities that to expand educational opportunities beyond urban centres. Quality assurance should never be compromised. Students deserve programmes with qualified academic staff, robust assessment systems, modern learning technologies, and effective student support services. Public confidence in university qualifications depends upon maintaining high academic standards. Nevertheless, quality assurance should function as an enabling framework rather than becoming an administrative barrier. Policies should encourage innovation, flexibility, and accessibility while ensuring accountability. The challenge is therefore not whether regulation is necessary, it certainly is, but whether regulation has been designed with sufficient consideration of institutional diversity. Regional universities operate under financial and human resource constraints that differ considerably from those of larger metropolitan institutions. A uniform regulatory framework may therefore produce unequal consequences across the university system.

Broader socioeconomic impact

Another important consideration is the broader socioeconomic impact. Open and Distance Learning contributes not only to education but also to local economies. Regional study centres create employment opportunities, stimulate local businesses, generate demand for accommodation and transport, and support digital infrastructure development. More importantly, they allow educated professionals to remain within their communities while upgrading their qualifications. In an era where governments emphasize lifelong learning, digital education, workforce reskilling, and inclusive development, policies should strengthen but not unintentionally weaken the national Open and Distance Learning ecosystem.

The University Grants Commission should therefore consider establishing a comprehensive consultative review involving universities, academic staff, students, employers, quality assurance experts, and regional stakeholders before full implementation of major regulatory reforms. Such a review could identify practical adjustments that preserve academic quality while ensuring that regulations remain realistic, affordable, and supportive of institutional sustainability.

Higher education policy should not only regulate universities; it should also empower them to fulfil their national mission. Sri Lanka cannot afford to reduce educational opportunities for those who have the fewest alternatives. For thousands of working adults and rural students, Open and Distance Learning represents hope, opportunity, and social mobility. Any reform affecting that opportunity deserves careful consultation, thoughtful implementation, and continuous evaluation.

The ultimate objective should be clear: to improve quality without sacrificing accessibility, to strengthen accountability without reducing opportunity, and to ensure that Sri Lanka’s universities remain engines of inclusive national development rather than becoming institutions accessible only to those who can afford conventional education.

Disclaimer:

The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author, presented to encourage constructive discussion on higher education policy reforms, and do not necessarily reflect the views or positions of any institution or organization with which the author is affiliated.

About the Writer:

Prof. M. P. S. Magamage is a senior academic at the Sabaragamuwa University of Sri Lanka and a distinguished scholar with extensive international experience. He is a Fulbright Scholar, Indian Science Research Fellow, and Australian Endeavour Fellow, and has served as a Visiting Professor at the University of Nebraska–Lincoln, USA. Beyond his academic achievements, Prof. Magamage has played significant roles in national policy and disaster-related governance, higher education policy development. He can be contacted at magamage@agri.sab.ac.lk.

by Prof. M. P. S. Magamage

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Appleby Plays Chicken

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Tales of Mystery and Suspense 11

After the horrors of modernity and the absurdity of murder in the midst of the preposterous Ballet Stroganoff, I turn to more orthodox crime fiction. It fits into the tradition of the golden age of crime fiction, though it was not published between the wars, but rather in the fifties.

It was a quintessential Oxford book, written by Michael Innes, the pseudonym of the Christ Church English don J I M Stewart. I read it in a quintessentially Oxford setting, the Chalet in the French Alps where in the seventies I had been to several reading parties.

I was not really a Chalet type, for most of the others from the College were from British public schools, blond and athletic, though the patron as we called the Senior Tutor who ran our parties did ask exceptions to add to the mix, such as my fellow classicist Reggie Oliver now well known for collections of horror stories. But they too walked, whereas after my first effort, up the hill to the restaurant hotel which supplied our wine, I said firmly I would not walk again.

So, I would sit in the chalet and read, for it had a wonderful collection of books, dating from the previous century when it had been founded by a famous Balliol don. And last year, when I was asked if I would like to join a party for former Chaletites, I found after I had staggered down to the place from the hotel – now only a restaurant – that it would be best not even to try that short walk until the time came to leave.

Stewart

I had five days of tranquil bliss, marvelling at the two other older men who did walk, but quite content with my books. And having reread a book I had loved half a century earlier, I turned to thrillers of which there was a great collection.

I had enjoyed the few Innes books I had read previously, but this one was new, and apt for it began with a reading party. Appleby Plays Chicken (also known as Death on a Quiet Day) features his favourite detective, Police Commissioner Sir John Appleby. The party was not in the Alps but in a quiet English village, and begins with a game of chicken involving fast driving, which leads the thoughtful undergraduate who sensibly chickened out going for a long walk the following day. During the walk, he comes across a dead body, and realizes that the murderer must be the man he sees walking away on the other side. But he comes up and seems to be helping the boy with the investigation, when he suddenly pulls a gun.

That leads to a long chase over the moors, with other sinister figures popping up, though the last one turns out to be Appleby, who had noticed blood on the shoe of the boy who had been put into an ambulance. Finding himself in a police station, the boy relates what happened, and the two of them go back to the tor, only to find another dead body there. But this belongs to someone else, in fact the man who had appeared on top and pulled out a pistol. And his murderer is on another hill nearby and nearly knocks off Appleby.

He gets away, despite the police cordon Appleby had summoned, and the story moves to the hotel and two strange people there, a man who the students think is a clergyman, and a military man whom Appleby says is a blackmailer. Then a message comes to the don in charge of the party, that his brother, a landowner in the neighbourhood, was missing, presumed drowned.

Meanwhile the supposed clergyman is waiting for his daughter, who it seems was the young lady in a car which seemed to offer refuge to the fugitive boy, but when he next came across it his pursuers had taken it over. A telegram comes from her to say she was staying over with her friends, but the boys realize that it had come from nearby, and they hare off in pursuit.

Appleby and the don and the clergyman and the military man go to the house of the drowned brother and then follow the youngsters to a tower where they believe the girl is being kept. Appleby tells the original young man to go first, and then the others follow, to find the girl and the clergyman and the military man all together there, which leads to a dramatic conclusion, in which the villain falls to his death and the don follows in trying to save him.

It turns out that this is a spy story too, the brother having been blackmailed by the man who killed him when he burnt on the tor the papers that were wanted. Then the mastermind killed the blackmailer, and the don, coming across the bodies, decided that his brother had to disappear, in a bog, to avoid disgrace. He then took his clothes to the shore by his house so that he could be presumed drowned.

And the girl was an accomplice, while the clergyman was the mastermind, which became clear when he fell into the trap of writing a blackmailing letter on the military man’s typewriter. But this was after Appleby had damaged it slightly so the fact that it was typed in the latter’s absence could be identified.

All very complex, and eccentric as Innes is wont to be, but wonderfully exciting, if quite different from the reading parties I was familiar with.

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The Dark Side of Meritocracy

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During the colonial era, Sri Lanka had a stronger economy than Singapore. Over the past seven decades, however, the two countries have followed sharply different paths. Singapore’s rise as a global economic hub is often attributed to three core principles: meritocracy, pragmatism, and honesty.

Critics argue that Sri Lanka’s problems reflect a failure to uphold these principles, a point that needs little proof, as we have seen it all firsthand. Today, there is renewed interest in restoring these values to governance, especially pragmatism and honesty, both of which Sri Lanka urgently needs. Meritocracy, however, is not that simple: the ways merit is assessed and acquired can undermine the very purpose meritocracy is meant to serve. While Sri Lanka must embrace meritocracy, we must take measures to prevent it from drifting into the dark side.

Meritocracy is commonly defined as a social, political, or economic system in which people are chosen for positions based on ability, talent, and effort, collectively called merits, rather than wealth, class, or inherited privilege.

Sri Lanka has a deep-rooted culture that not only tolerates but often venerates inherited privileges such as nepotism—advancement based on family ties or close personal connections; patronage—rewards and positions given in exchange for loyalty or political support; cronyism—favours given to friends or allies, especially in business or politics; aristocracy—power based on inherited status, class, or birth; and oligarchy—power held by a small, privileged group. These are legacies of a long history of monarchy, colonialism, and feudalism. Furthermore, social divisions based on religion, ethnicity, and caste add to the complexity. Our culture has a way of resigning itself to these social injustices by attributing them to fate or bad karma.

These deep-rooted practices have all but replaced meritocracy, causing immense damage to the country’s economy and social fabric. Therefore, adhering to meritocracy seems the obvious thing to do, but there are two unseen problems lurking beneath. First, an individual’s ability to earn merits depends on many factors, and the opportunities for earning merits are not equally available to all, a legacy of our past unjust practices. For those who have less or no opportunities to earn merits, the competition is over even before it begins.

Merit not a single universal quality

Second, “merit” is not a single universal quality. It varies with the job or position. A pilot, teacher, farmer, judge, engineer, and political leader each require different forms of ability, judgment, discipline, and responsibility. Therefore, merit must be assessed according to the demands of the role, not merely by the results of a standard test or formal qualifications, as practiced today. If we practice meritocracy under the present conditions, we will not get the expected outcome: meritocracy. Ironically, a cyclical process.

Therefore, adhering to meritocracy while ignoring the conditions that rob the opportunities to gain merits will only perpetuate unjust and outdated systems under the pretext of fair and progressive reform. Merit is a wonderful way to choose a pilot, but a terrible way to decide who deserves a dignified life.

This is a complex issue, and Sri Lanka has tried to address it in many ways in the past, with questionable, if not disastrous, results. The key point of this analysis is that our definition of merit is narrow and misleading. “Merit” is rarely an objective, universal metric. What one organisation values as merit may differ drastically from another. Our system equates merits or skills with the ability to perform on tests, starting from Grade five through final examinations at university. That is a problem as it does not measure the ability to do a job successfully.

Standard tests measure convergent thinking, that is, finding the single correct answer to a problem, but they completely miss identifying divergent thinking, which involves generating novel, creative solutions where no single answer exists. In other words, it is the ability to be “street smart” when confronted with real life problems that counts. Not the ability to cross the box in a test paper. Convergent thinking can be quantified; that is what test scores provide, and that has become the standard currency of merit in our society. On the other hand, there is no test to quantify the divergent thinking ability needed to solve complex problems on the ground. It is that skill we need to identify and nurture if we are to succeed economically and socially as a country.

The sunset example

A few terms used in relation to this subject need clarification: in the first scenario presented in the illustration, only the person standing on the highest ground can enjoy the sunset. The fence, which may have been erected for safety or as a boundary, blocks the view of the two people on lower ground. This is inequality. If the height of the fence were lowered enough for all three people to see the sunset, as in the second scenario, that would represent formal equality: treating everyone the same, regardless of where they stand. It seems fair, but it has drawbacks.

First, when the fence is lowered, the original purpose of the fence may be compromised or lost. If the fence were built for safety, someone on higher ground could trip and fall over the cliff on the other side. Second, the person on higher ground could still see the sunset for longer than the others. For example, if one person’s position is one foot higher than another’s, he or she could see the sunset about 4.2 seconds longer; if the difference is 1,000 feet, the sunset lasts about 2 minutes and 13 seconds longer. In other words, the person on higher ground still has an inbuilt advantage. This is true in real life as well. In the third scenario, the fence is lowered proportionally. There is an appearance of equality, but the longer sunset enjoyed from higher ground has not been addressed. In the fourth scenario, conditions have been equalized in a more justifiable way.

That is the theory. British sociologist Michael Young is credited with coining the term meritocracy in his 1958 satirical book The Rise of the Meritocracy. He warned that a pure meritocracy could create a permanent, arrogant ruling elite whose members believed they owed all their success solely to their own efforts, while making the lower classes feel entirely responsible for their poverty. Scholars across the developed world are raising concerns about the outcome of true meritocracies, including in our model country, Singapore (Ong Ye Kung, 2018).

Permanent arrogant ruling elite?

Create a permanent, arrogant ruling elite? That is a dire warning we cannot ignore. Such a condition can create new divisions, disrupt national unity, and damage economic development. Sri Lanka has experienced enough of it: two youth uprisings, a civil war, ongoing social tensions, and a failed economy. Let us be clear, deep down, the root cause of these conflicts is the lack of equal opportunities to participate in the country’s economy and earn a decent living. Those with ulterior motives may give different meaning, but that is the reality. We cannot afford repetitions.

Tests that measure convergent thinking ability by asking how quickly one can find the single correct answer to a carefully structured problem. The test taker’s ability to answer such questions does not depend on education alone, but it also depends on family status and support, social background, nutrition, safety, and access to networking. In some cases, geography, disability, caste, ethnicity, religion, and political influence also come into play. Unequal opportunities create unequal merit. Therefore, a purely meritocratic system can appear fair while still rewarding advantages accumulated long before competition begins. When there are so many factors in play, equalising all of them, creating a just environment, let alone the most crucial factor, education, can be a herculean task.

The better alternative is to use a measure of divergent thinking ability, but that presents several problems. Divergent thinking is the thought process used to generate creative ideas by exploring many workable solutions. Instead of looking for a single, correct answer, which is convergent thinking, divergent thinking expands outward in multiple, non-linear directions. It is often spontaneous, free-flowing, and associated with “thinking outside the box.” Convergent thinking ability peaks during early adulthood and diminishes with age, whereas divergent thinking ability increases throughout life. Experience counts. Therefore, to assess divergent thinking ability, it is necessary to observe an individual’s performance while he or she is facing real-life problems over a longer period than what it takes to do a standard test.

Reasons for reassessing the push

Sri Lanka has other reasons for reassessing the push to establish a conventional meritocracy. According to available data, one-fifth of Sri Lanka’s labour force is employed in the public sector, while the rest is divided between the private sector and informal employment in a two-to-three ratio. This means that more than 60% of the labour force consists of small-scale, unregistered family units, subsistence farmers, street vendors, three-wheel drivers, daily-wage laborers, and independent tradespeople such as plumbers, carpenters, and masons. In addition, it is estimated that about 8.6 to 9.2 million Sri Lankans who can work are not actively looking for employment; more than 71% of them are female.

Promised Justice

The promised “justice” of meritocracy does not reach them. For example, the country had been self-sufficient in rice on many occasions, but rice farmers remain trapped in a cycle of enduring poverty with little hope of escape. Sri Lanka’s Inequality Index increased from 37.7 in 2019 to 39.8, reflecting the disproportionate burden on the informal labour force, even though Sri Lanka was declared an Upper-Middle-Income country by the same monitoring organization. Our system does not provide the opportunity for all citizens to participate in the economy, and that is a major hindrance to economic development.

Success and justice require assessing both the convergent and divergent thinking abilities of an individual as an entry requirement as well as during their performance in the position. The private sector practices this, but the current public sector system fails on both counts. The perils of selecting or electing people who are not qualified to do the job do not need explanation. Sadly, that has been Sri Lanka’s legacy. In addition, the current system fails to assess the job performance of elected or selected people and hold them accountable. Public sector jobs are for life. Pay increases and promotions are predetermined and, unlike in the private sector, are not based on performance or productivity.

This is the fundamental reason for needing education reforms. Our education system was first designed to provide clerical support to colonial administrators. Conditions have changed, but the system remains stubbornly unchanged. The education system is not designed to meet the country’s needs. On one hand, it has created a shortage of qualified people to provide essential services. On the other hand, brain drain fulfills the needs of affluent countries at the expense of hard-earned taxpayer money.

University graudates

In this system, higher education has been enlisted in defining merit and conferring the credentials that a market meritocracy rewards, while distorting the mission of higher education. Many university graduates end up in teaching positions when they have no teaching experience. The same applies to university teachers as well. This writer has seen his share of university teachers who would not have tenure if their students were allowed to grade their performance, as happens in most Western countries.

The lack of a system to evaluate employee performance, particularly in the public sector, is a serious error. In the current system, this is the only opportunity to assess divergent thinking ability, or the so-called soft skills and mindset, which, along with hard skills, are crucial in delivering the intended service and achieving personal growth: actual merit. Instead, public sector employees’ promotions and pay increases follow a fixed timetable, irrespective of their performance. This guaranteed-for-life employment system not only eliminates accountability but also kills motivation to do the job well and discourages innovation. Both individuals and the country suffer as a result.

The other drawback is the social devaluation of vocational skills in favour of professional skills—another residue of our feudal past that refuses to go away. This prestige hierarchy places undue emphasis on university education at the expense of vocational training. Both students and parents are under severe pressure to do well at exams, and this creates a wholesale drive to send children to elite schools in the capital and feed a massive tuition industry. This fixation on a few professions fails to recognise the significance of the other vocational professions to the economy.

Professionals may claim that they have invested more in achieving their skills and deserve preferential treatment, but they should not forget that farmers, plantation workers, and domestic workers abroad, to name a few, contribute to maintaining the infrastructure that allows professionals to earn their merit: the ‘moral desert.’ Society must have the decency to recognise their contribution, not in slogans, but by providing them with the means to lead a decent life.

Even under the best of conditions, meritocracy has become another form of hereditary system, much as aristocracy was. Affluent, privileged parents have figured out how to pass their privilege on to their children, not by bequeathing them land or estates, as in aristocratic societies, but by equipping them to compete successfully and get well-paid jobs, particularly in the private sector, and amass wealth. Meritocracy fails because it turns success into a moral claim, breeds arrogance among winners, creates shame among losers, reproduces privilege, and undermines democratic solidarity. Critics see it as a way to whitewash elitism (Sandel 2021, Markovits 2019, Littler 2017, Frank 2016, Guinier 2015).

Shortcomings

On the surface, meritocracy is the right practice. Indeed, meritocracy must be practiced; one cannot hire a mechanic to pilot a plane just because he is well connected. Yet, even under the best of conditions, meritocracy has shortcomings; and efforts to provide justice in earning merit, as shown in the fourth scenario in the illustration, not only unachievable, but it can create new social problems, as we have seen in our own past. Besides, such measures are only temporary, like medication given for an acute illness. They should not remain in place indefinitely. Lasting solutions must honor the dignity of work rather than credential achievement alone. That will also solve the rampant shortage of qualified workers while addressing the issue of brain drain. Most Nordic countries and some Eastern European countries have found their own solutions to this problem.

Nordic approaches may not transfer directly to Sri Lanka, but one conclusion is clear: our education system must be reformed to address these conditions. Sri Lankans spend more on the thriving shadow education system than the education department’s budget, while other pressing issues get neglected, for example, childhood malnutrition. Education should not merely grant credentials of limited value at home while serving affluent countries at taxpayers’ expense. In Singapore, our model country, meritocracy is not a “moral desert” driven solely by exam competition; it is grounded in “national duty.” We have recognised our past mistakes, but solving such a complex problem needs long-term strategic planning. Therefore, now is the right moment to begin a serious dialogue and include the right strategy in our plan for a happy and prosperous nation.

by Geewananda Gunawardana, Ph.D.

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