Features
Is Catastrophic Collapse Imminent?
by Kumar David
An optimist would venture to say that an economic catastrophe is not imminent, using the adjective imminent literally. He would be emboldened to make this remark because a restructuring deal, maybe a tough one, seems likely to come out of the negotiations with the IMF. Since all other lenders take their cue from the IMF thanks to its expertise and experience, Sri Lanka is likely to clinch agreements of different forms with China, India and Japan; life will go on. The country seems important enough for international actors such as India, China, America, Britain, Japan and the QUAD to be concerned about; in the case of India strategic concern is natural. America threatened war if Cuba stationed Soviet nuclear missiles, and now Russia is apoplectic at the thought of NATO getting its fingers around its neck via Ukraine, Finland and Sweden. No great or regional power will allow foreign bases near its land borders or its littoral waters. India’s anxiety is no surprise but such concerns should not be a passage to America and Europe. Actually, Lanka has little relevance to the Quad strategy of encircling China and is irrelevant to NATO’s scheme to suffocate Russia. The so-called Indian Ocean strategic zone too is a myth.
Therefore, my view is that the ongoing flurry is not primarily strategic or about world-power relations; the spurt of foreign interest is political and psychological. The psychological facet is that though we know we are a bunch of s.o.bs, foreigners, poor suckers, have affection for this island, and believe it or not its undeserving people. Let’s not spoil this advantage; let’s keep the charm of genuine non-alignment alive. Competition for mating-rights gets us, petrol, cooking-gas, milk-powder, pharmaceuticals and dhal. It would have been helpful if we had slaughtered fewer Tamils and now refrain from harassing Muslims on trumped-up charges. Lanka is no dream democracy; it is the site of militant and state-terrorism and crass military-police human rights abuse at the instigation of the JR, Premadasa Snr. and Mahinda regimes. It has been a locale of brazen plunder by political leaders, and not only in the (Raja)Paksa era. Racism is widespread among the people, but then ethnic intolerance is a global pandemic.
This is all true but there is another crucial aspect. Lanka is one of few post-colonial outposts where constitutional governance, admittedly imperfect, survives. Our giant neighbour India is another. This is different from Burma, Pakistan, Cambodia, Thailand (never colonised) and 50+ countries across Africa, Central Asia and Latin America. Hence my thesis is: India and the West, though they will be tough on economic reforms (IMF, West) and political changes (India), will not allow Lanka to collapse into anarchy and chaos. The uncles and aunties crowding over our crib will throw a lifeline before we asphyxiate. Can you imagine India, the West or China standing by and doing nothing if Lanka sinks into bedlam? We do not deserve a reprieve, but international political and psychological concerns will play out to our profit to prevent catastrophic meltdown. This is my hypothesis; let’s see if events prove the hunch correct.
However, this hypothesis does not allow conclusions to be drawn about politics or the traumatic fuel crisis of this (late June) moment; fuel is the litmus test that will decide whether RW’s administration survives. So far it has been paralysed and it has failed to inspire confidence that it has a way out. It must stop deceiving the public about the state of the fuel supply-chain. It will have to find an immediate fuel fix if mounting violence outside petrol stations is to be contained. This is the moment’s do-or-die challenge.
Of course, our congenital problems will persist but sudden death will likely be averted for now, that this till the IMF negotiations are finalised and implemented. Three IMF teams visited the country, one examining fiscal balance and seeking to restore a measure of equality between government expenditure and revenue and a second looking broadly at public finances (money supply, debt, banking, financial stability, social welfare). The third team worked on debt restructuring and interacted with legal advisors cum consultants hired by the government, Lazard and Clifford Chance. Chance is a London based law firm; Lazard engages in asset management, financial services and is also an investment bank with offices in New York, Paris and London. Judged by conventional norms, we have a strong squad on our side.
The wisest stance for Parliament and the opposition (SJB, TNA and JVP-NPF) to adopt at this juncture is to allow these negotiations to proceed and do nothing to disrupt them. Walking out of parliament when critical negotiations about the country’s financial destiny are in full-swing and the 21st Amendment (maybe renamed 22?) is about to be tabled, is both imprudent and irresponsible. The protocols imposed by the IMF could, at worst, be a repletion of its old Structural Adjustment designs: laissez-faire (nearly unchecked free-markets as in JR, Premadasa Snr times), pro-business, privatisation and foreign capital oriented, inimical to state participation in the economy, hostile to state spending on welfare (health and education) and pushing for labour-market reform (easier firing, lowering real wages). To be fair however we have to wait and see, and some changes to Lanka’s economic structures are in any case justified. RW’s natural inclinations would be to go along with right-wing, market-oriented proposals.
21A (22A?) now finalised and about to be tabled in Parliament is defective; too much power retained by the president despite substantial pruning. Instead of debating and discussing these two urgent matters in the House and from there taking them to the public arena, for the Opposition to walk out of Parliament is an unbelievable act of stupidity. I am surprised Anura, Vijitha Herath and Harini fell for this senseless stunt. They must return forthwith and address the tasks that await them; that is, critically examining the protocols agreed with the IMF and proposing amendments to 21 (22) A.
The RW government should be given the space to work through this emergency (EX) period when the country is in intensive care (say a month or two), but this is not what RW seems to have in his mind. He speaks of remaining in office for much longer: “Once we have established a firm economic foundation you (the people) can hand over power to any political party you wish”. This could be one year, or maybe he has it in mind to hang on till the November 2024 (Presidential) and August 2025 (Parliamentary) elections. RW would then be governing without a mandate from the people (reasonable during an existential crisis such as now) for an extended period; this is unreasonable.
Another matter is that the emergency medications that Lanka will be forced to swallow, whether it likes it or not, to secure urgent foreign debt restructuring via IMF and space from foreign creditors, will not be much different whether Ranil Wickremesinghe or Vladimir Lenin is PM. We are in such a mess that we have to grab any rope that is thrown to us. That’s why I say, allow Ranil to steer during the emergency (EX) period – which madman wants to shoot the pilot in mid-air halfway through a flight?
RW has his known proclivities and policy preferences and some will dovetail with anticipated IMF protocols. We can criticise but may have no option but to accept some. But allowing RW to set the economic direction of the country in next medium-term (MT) say three-year period is another matter; his remit has no electoral mandate. He has a right to his preferences and proclivities but no right to impose them on the country without a mandate. I make a crucial distinction between the period of negotiations with the IMF (the emergency EX phase) and a three to five-year MT economic, financial and social programme that requires a mandate. This is the distinction between trauma-therapy urgently administered during EX and longer-term recuperation strategies to rebuild economy and society.
Will a government elected in say one year be any better? Will there be a smaller number of donkeys and crooks? Have people learnt their lesson? There is a convicted felon seated in Cabinet right now – Mr President and Mr Prime Minister please explain. A multi-billion-rupee tax-dodger has been made a Minister. The voters of Ratnapura returned a convicted murderer to parliament. But this is what we call democracy – the right of the people to choose which bunch of vampires will suck their blood next time. Unfortunately, there is no acceptable alternative to democracy; a one-party state will not survive without open revolt because of our post-Donoughmore past and also because our national ethos and psychology will not accept it. The other option, a military regime will be hell on earth, so no more mention of that.
Why has the Lankan economy collapsed? Depending on how far back you go and your preferred ideology the answers are many, and all true. The following are the most frequently adduced.
* National consumption far exceeded production for seventy years and we ate our way into debt.
* Excess consumption was financed in part by foreign borrowing which plunged the country into the black-hole of ‘dollar indebtedness’.
* Export earnings fell far short of import expenditure (chronic balance-of-payments deficit).
* Government finances were out of kilter, with revenue falling way short of expenditure and the indebtedness was paid for by reckless rupee printing (chronic fiscal-deficit).
* Stupid projects by Rajapaksa regimes (Mattala Airport, Hambantota Harbour, Lotus Tower, Hambantota Stadium, show pieces named after Mahinda Rajapaksa) bankrupted the country.
* These projects were financially wasteful and executed either as prestige ventures or to collect commissions from contractors. These are part of staggering corruption activities amounting to billions of dollars perpetrated by the Rajapaksa Clan, re-elected with a massive majority!
* Breakdown of the rule of law and judicial independence.
No country can withstand such an inferno of epidemics, pestilences and plagues. It is all of this that has come together in 2022 to sink the ship. If it survives for the few EX-months, then the next step is elections to empower a government for MT. My preference is social-democracy with a well thought out dirigisme (state directed) component in its economic policy package. If it is necessary to wait till next time round for the electorate to mature and elect this option, let’s wait till vox populi comes around. Most likely a centrist or centre-right alliance will be elected in an election right now (options, Sajith, Ranil-Sajith, Dulles-led SLPP). Their right or centre-right policy spaces will be defined by terms like, market-oriented, business-friendly, private-sector led development, privatisation, restructured labour-market, FDI oriented, and rather harsh on the grassroots regarding welfare and subsidies.
A social-democratic alternative will have to borrow some of this but the difference will be in implementation and orientation. Eran Wickramaratne in “A Just Tax System” Daily Mirror 27 June writes in a vein where social-democrats seeking to direct the economy (dirigisme) into just directions cannot ask for more (Was he ever a Party Member!). In recent decades, lines have blurred everywhere between avant-garde liberalism and 21st-Century social-democracy.
This brings me to a last thought. The LSSP’s Tissa is sharp and intelligent; what on earth is he doing with that spent force Vasu and two jackals Wimal and Udaya? Isn’t it as clear as daylight that the LSSP must move over and align itself with the new left (JVP, FSP etc)? Yes, yes there’s 1971 and 1989 and the five-lessons, and etc and etc. Who doesn’t know all this? I wrote the first left critique of the JVP (Ajith Samaranayake did a brilliant translation) which the Party published 50 years ago. But it’s not that same world any longer Comrade!
Features
Iain Douglas-Hamilton: Science, courage, and the battle for elephants
Passing of Iain Douglas-Hamilton, a man who dedicated his life to conservation and whose life’s work leaves a lasting impact on our appreciation for, and understanding of, elephants.
– Prince William
In Africa on 08 December, 2025, when the sun slipped below the horizon, it did not only give an end for that day, but it also marked the end of a man whose knowledge and courage saved Africa’s elephants. This gentleman was none other than Iain Douglas-Hamilton! There is a beautiful African proverb that says, “When an old man dies, a library burns to the ground,” and it resonates well with Iain’s demise.
Iain pioneered behaviour research on elephants, and he was the first to highlight the elephant poaching crisis in Africa. Also, the adventures he went through to save the elephants will inspire generations.
From Oxford to Africa

The Life of the Last Proboscideans: Elephants”, authored by Muthukumarana, stands as an awardwinning, comprehensive study that integrates elephant evolution, anthropology, biology, behaviour, and conservation science.
Iain was born on 16 August, 1942, into an aristocratic family, the son of Lord David Douglas-Hamilton and Ann Prunella Stack. His parents were a distinguished couple in Britain: his father, a Scottish nobleman, served as a squadron leader in the Royal Air Force, while his mother was a pioneering figure in physical fitness and a prominent advocate for women’s rights. After finishing his school, Iain was admitted to Oxford University to study zoology. At the age of 23, for his PhD, Iain travelled to Tanzania to study the behaviour of elephants at Lake Manyara National Park. This was a daring and humble beginning that would change how the world understood elephants. He learnt to recognise individual animals based on their tusks and ears. He observed their family bonds, their grief, and their intelligence. These findings made the scientific community identify elephants as sentimental beings. During this period, he married Oria Rocco, and together they had two children, Saba and Mara.
Battle for the elephants
When ivory poaching swept across Africa and devastated elephant populations, Iain did not withdraw in despair. He confronted the crisis head-on, guided by science, rigorous data, and unwavering resolve. Through extensive aerial counts and field studies, he laid bare the scale of the tragedy—revealing that Africa’s elephant numbers had collapsed from an estimated 1.3 million to just about 600,000 in little more than 10 years.
It was largely thanks to his work that the global community saw—perhaps for the first time—the full scope of the crisis. His efforts played a pivotal role in pushing forward the 1989 international ban on ivory trade, a landmark moment for wildlife conservation.
In 1993, Iain founded Save the Elephants (STE), an organisation that would become the heart of elephant conservation efforts in Kenya and across Africa.
At STE, he pioneered the use of GPS-tracking and aerial survey techniques to monitor elephant movements, protect them from poaching, and plan safe corridors for them in increasingly human-dominated landscapes. These methods have since become standard tools in wildlife conservation worldwide.
Beyond technology and science, Iain was a mentor. He inspired — and continues to inspire — generations of conservationists, researchers, and everyday people who care deeply about wildlife. Through his books (such as Among the Elephants and Battle for the Elephants), documentaries, lectures, and personal example, he invited the world to see elephants not as trophies or commodities, but as sentient beings — worthy of awe, study, and protection.
Iain and Sri Lanka
In 2003 Iain came to Sri Lanka for the first time to attend the “Symposium on Human-Elephant Relationships and Conflict” as the keynote speaker. On that day he concluded his address by saying, “When I hear the talk of Problem Animal Control, I always wonder whether our species has the capacity for its own self-regulation or Problem Human Control in a humane and wise manner. HEC stands for Human Elephant Conflict, one of our focuses of this conference. How I wish it could come to stand for Human Elephant Coexistence, based on a recognition that other beings also need their space to live in. We are a long way from that, but I am sure that many of the findings of the talented body of researchers in this room will begin a stepwise progress in answering some of these fundamental problems.”
A few years ago Iain’s organisation STE collaborated with the Sri Lankan Wildlife Conservation Society for research activities aimed at reducing human-elephant conflict. In 2016 when the Sri Lankan government was going to destroy the confiscated illegal African elephant ivory, I made a request for Iain to write a congratulatory message to Sri Lanka’s President and Prime Minister for the wise decision they had taken. Iain sent me a four-page meaningful letter written by him, and he was joined by 18 other conservation organisations. In his letter he mentioned, “I want to offer my congratulations to the government of Sri Lanka for the laudable decision to destroy ivory stocks…” Sri Lanka is sending a message to the world that ivory should be without worth; elephants have value when alive. This is a critical message to send, particularly to the religious world, as they are sensitised about the threat religious ivory poses to elephant populations in Africa.”
Fortunately, Iain’s conservation is taken up by his children, especially his eldest daughter, Saba. In 2016 and 2024 she came to Sri Lanka for a lecture hosted by the Galle Literary Festival. Also in 2019, for the Wildlife and Nature Protection Society’s 125th Anniversary, Saba and her husband visited a gala dinner that was held to fundraise for conservation projects.
A difficult path
Iain’s path was never easy. He endured personal peril many times: from hostile terrain and unpredictable wild animals to being shot at by poachers while conducting aerial patrols over war-torn national parks.
Yet despite the danger, despite setbacks — flooded camps, lost data, shifting political tides — his conviction never wavered. His was a life marked by resilience. He refused complacency. He refused to surrender. And through every hardship, he remembered why he began: to give elephants a future.
Iain was also a pilot, and as the old English saying goes, “Pilots don’t die; they simply fly higher.” In that spirit, I wish the same peaceful ascent for Iain. My heartfelt condolences are with Iain’s family.
by Tharindu Muthukumarana ✍️
tharinduele@gmail.com
(Author of the award-winning book “The Life of Last Proboscideans: Elephants”)
Features
Awesome power of gratitude
When you hear the word gratitude the first impression you get is a tail-wagging dog. If you feed a dog one day, it will wag its tail even if you meet it after a few years. That is gratitude. In addition, dogs are great teachers. They are at home in the world. They live in the moment and they force us to stay with them. Dogs love us and remain grateful unconditionally not for our bodies or bank accounts.
Small children are taught to say ‘Thank you’ for any favour they receive from others. They do not know that the two words can have positive effects on your health and the well-being of others.
Some time ago I had to call emergency services as I found one of my family members was unconscious. Within minutes an ambulance arrived and the paramedics whisked the patient away to the nearest hospital. He was in intensive care for a few days and returned home. We were marvelled at the impact of a handful of strangers who took charge of the patient at a critical time. I immediately wrote thank you notes to those who saved the patient’s life. I knew that it was a small gesture on my part. However, it was the only way I could express my gratitude to a dedicated team.
Selfless people
Later I realized that there are a large number of selfless people who do life-saving work, but they never expect anything in return. How volunteers saved a large number of flood victims is a case in point. The flood victims may not have expressed their gratitude in so many words. However, they would have felt a deep sense of gratitude to the volunteers who saved them.
Why do people come forward to help those facing natural disasters and other dangerous situations? A recent research in the United States shows that sharing thoughts of gratitude and performing acts of kindness can boost your mood and have other positive effects on your health. Almost all religions teach that gratitude does have a good impact on your happiness. Professor of Psychology Willibald Ruch says that gratitude is among the top five predictors of happiness.
By showing gratitude you can make positive changes in your own life. If you feel a sense of gratitude whenever you receive something that is good for you, it will be a healthy sign. You cannot get such a feeling in a vacuum because others have to play their roles. They can be your loved ones, friends, strangers or even people in authority. Gratitude is how you relate to them when you see yourself in connection with things larger than yourself.
Gratification lifestyle
Strangely, many people do not pause to appreciate what others are doing for them. For this you have to blame your gratification lifestyle. With the popularity of social media the young people feel that they are the centre of the universe. They seem to think there is no necessity to thank those who help them.
Why should we thank others even for minor favours? Recent studies show that those who express gratitude increase their own happiness levels. They also lower their blood pressure levels to a great extent. On the other hand, they will be able to sleep well and improve their relationships. They are also less affected by pain because of the positive impact on their depression.
They may not know that positive effects of gratitude are long lasting. Research shows that those who write thank you notes improve their mental health. There was also a decrease in their bodily pains. What is more, they feel more energetic in completing their daily activities. Unfortunately, schools and universities do not teach the value of gratitude since it is fairly a new field of study. Researchers are still trying to find out its cause and effect relationship. We know that those who perform acts of gratitude can sleep well. However, we do not know the reason for it. Researchers are wondering whether gratitude leads to better sleep or sleep leads to more gratitude. They also probe whether there is another variable that leads to gratitude and improved sleep.
Children
Despite such controversies, we know for certain that gratitude can benefit people at any stage of life. Most elderly people remain grateful for their children and grandchildren who support them. Elderly people cannot regain their physical strength or mental agility. Therefore they focus on gratitude. They are thankful to their children and grandchildren for their present situation.
How do gratitude recipients react? Research shows that those who receive thank you notes or acts of kindness experience positive emotions. You feel happy when someone holds a door open for you. Similarly, you are happy if you receive some unexpected help. Recently I was pleasantly surprised to see that someone has credited a big sum of money to my bank account in appreciation of a small favour I had done.
When you thank someone they are more likely to return the favour or pay kindness forward. Psychologically, people feel very happy when you thank them. However, some people hesitate to say thank you. The give-and-take of gratitude deepens relationships. In a close relationship husbands and wives do not thank each other. However, there are other ways of showing gratitude. A wife can make her husband feel appreciated. Such a feeling of appreciation will go a long way to strengthen their relationship.
Some people are ungrateful by nature. However, they can learn the art of being grateful. Such people will do well to maintain a gratitude journal. It is something similar to Pinpotha maintained by Buddhists in the past. They can record positive events in the journal. At the beginning this may not be easy. With practice, however, you can do it well. I knew of a man who kept a gratitude journal. Although his family members laughed at him, he did not give up the habit. When he was diagnosed with a terminal disease he used to read his gratitude journal very happily.
By R.S. Karunaratne ✍️
Features
Another Christmas, Another Disaster, Another Recovery Mountain to Climb
The 2004 Asian Tsunami erupted the day after Christmas. Like the Boxing Day Test Match in Brisbane, it was a boxing day bolt for Indonesia, Thailand, Sri Lanka, India and Maldives. Twenty one years later, in 2025, multiple Asian cyclones hit almost all the old victims and added a few more, including Malayasia, Vietnam and Cambodia. Indonesia and Sri Lanka were hit hard both times. Unlike the 2004 Tsunami, the 2025 cyclones made landfalls weeks before Christmas, during the Christian Season of Advent, the four-week period before Christmas preparing for the arrival of the Messiah. An ominously adventus manifestation of the nature’s fury.
Yet it was not the “day of wrath and doom impending … heaven and earth in ashes ending” – heavenly punishment for government lying, as an opposition politician ignorantly asserted. By that token, the gods must have opted to punish half a dozen other Asian countries for the NPP government’s lying in Sri Lanka. Or all those governments have been caught lying. Everyone is caught and punished for lying, except the world’s Commander in Chief for lying – Donald J. Trump. But as of late and none too sooner, President Trump is getting his punishment in spades. Who would have thought?
In fairness, even the Catholic Church has banished its old hymn of wrath (Dies irae, dies illa) that used to be sung at funerals from its current Missals; and it has on offer, many other hymns of peace and joy, especially befitting the Christmas season. Although this year’s Christmas comes after weeks of havoc caused by cyclonic storms and torrential rains, the spirit of the season, both in its religious and secular senses, will hopefully provide some solace for those still suffering and some optimism to everyone who is trying to uplift the country from its overflowing waterways and sliding slopes.
As the scale of devastation goes, no natural disaster likely will surpass the human fatalities that the 2004 Tsunami caused. But the spread and scale of this year’s cyclone destruction, especially the destruction of the island’s land-forms and its infrastructure assets, are, in my view, quite unprecedented. The scale of the disaster would finally seem to have sunk into the nation’s political skulls after a few weeks of cacophonic howlers – asking who knew and did what and when. The quest for instant solutions and the insistence that the government should somehow find them immediately are no longer as vehement and voluble as they were when they first emerged.
NBRO and Landslides
But there is understandable frustration and even fear all around, including among government ministers. To wit, the reported frustration of Agriculture Minister K.D. Lalkantha at the alleged inability of the National Building Research Organization (NBRO) to provide more specific directions in landslide warnings instead of issuing blanket ‘Level 3 Red Alerts’ covering whole administrative divisions in the Central Province, especially in the Kandy District. “We can’t relocate all 20 divisional secretariats” in the Kandy District, the Minister told the media a few weeks ago. His frustration is understandable, but expecting NBRO to provide political leaders with precise locations and certainty of landslides or no landslides is a tall ask and the task is fraught with many challenges.
In fairness to NBRO and its Engineers, their competence and their responses to the current calamity have been very impressive. It is not the fault of the NBRO that local disasters could not be prevented, and people could not be warned sufficiently in advance to evacuate and avoid being at the epicentre of landslides. The intensity of landslides this year is really a function of the intensity and persistence of rainfall this season, for the occurrence of landslides in Sri Lanka is very directly co-related to the amount of rainfall. The rainfall during this disaster season has been simply relentless.
Evacuation, the ready remedy, is easier said than socially and politically done. Minister Lal Kantha was exasperated at the prospect of evacuating whole divisional secretariats. This was after multiple landslides and the tragedies and disasters they caused. Imagine anybody seriously listening to NBRO’s pleas or warnings to evacuate before any drop of rainwater has fallen, not to mention a single landslide. Ignoring weather warnings is not peculiar to Sri Lanka, but a universal trait of social inertia.
I just lauded NBRO’s competence and expertise. That is because of the excellent database the NBRO professionals have compiled, delineating landslide zones and demarcating them based on their vulnerability for slope failure. They have also identified the main factors causing landslides, undertaken slope stabilization measures where feasible, and developed preventative and mitigative measures to deal with landslide occurrences.
The NBRO has been around since the 1980s, when its pioneers supplemented the work of Prof. Thurairajah at Peradeniya E’Fac in studying the Hantana hill slopes where the NHDA was undertaking a large housing scheme. As someone who was involved in the Hantana project, I have often thought that the initiation of the NBRO could be deemed one of the positive legacies of then Housing Ministry Secretary R. Paskaralingam.
Be that as it may, the NBRO it has been tracking and analyzing landslides in Sri Lanka for nearly three decades, and would seem to have come of age in landslides expertise with its work following 2016 Aranayake Landslide Disaster in the Kegalle District. Technically, the Aranayake disaster is a remarkable phenomenon and it is known as a “rain-induced rapid long-travelling landslide” (RRLL). In Kegalle the 2016 RRLL carried “a fluidized landslide mass over a distance of 2 km” and caused the death of 125 people. International technical collaboration following the disaster produced significant research work and the start of a five-year research project (from 2020) in partnership with the International Consortium on Landslides (ICL). The main purpose of the project is to improve on the early warning systems that NBRO has been developing and using since 2007.
Sri Lankan landslides are rain induced and occur in hilly and mountainous areas where there is rapid weathering of rock into surface soil deposits. Landslide locations are invariably in the wet zone of the country, in 13 districts, in six provinces (viz., the Central, Sabaragamuwa, Uva, Northwestern, Western and Southern, provinces). The Figure below (from NBRO’s literature) shows the number of landslides and fatalities every year between 2003 and 2021.
Based on the graphics shown, there would have been about 5,000 landslides and slope failures with nearly 1,000 deaths over 19 years between 2003 and 2021. Every year there was some landslide or slope failure activity. One notable feature is that there have been more deaths with fewer landslides and vice-versa in particular years. In 2018, there were no deaths when the highest number (1,250) of landslides and slope failures occurred that year. Although the largest number in an year, the landslides in 2018 could have been minor and occurred in unpopulated areas. The reasons for more deaths in, say, 2016 (150) or 2017 (250+), could be their location, population density and the severity of specific landslides.
NBRO’s landslide early warning system is based on three components: (1) Predicting rainfall intensity and monitoring water pressure build up in landslide areas; (2) Monitoring and observing signs of soil movement and slope instability in vulnerable areas; and (3) Communicating landslide risk level and appropriate warning to civil authorities and the local public. The general warnings to Watch (Yellow), be Alert (Brown), or Evacuate (Red) are respectively based on the anticipated rainfall intensities, viz., 75 mm/day, 100 mm/day; and 150 mm/day or 100 mm/hr. My understanding is that over the years, NBRO has established its local presence in vulnerable areas to better communicate with the local population the risk levels and timely action.
Besides Landslides
This year, the rain has been relentless with short-term intensities often exceeding the once per 100-year rainfall. This is now a fact of life in the era of climate change. Added to this was cyclone Ditwah and its unique meteorology and trajectory – from south to north rather than northeast to southwest. The cyclone started with a disturbance southwest of Sri Lanka in the Arabian Sea, traversed around the southern coast from west to east to southeast in the Bay of Bengal, and then cut a wide swath from south to north through the entire easterly half of the island. The origin and the trajectory of the cyclone are also attributed to climate change and changes in the Arabian Sea. The upshot again is unpredictability.
Besides landslides, the rainfall this season has inundated and impacted practically every watershed in the country, literally sweeping away roads, bridges, tanks, canals, and small dams in their hundreds or several hundreds. The longitudinal sinking of the Colombo-Kandy Road in the Kadugannawa area seems quite unparalleled and this may not be the only location that such a shearing may have occurred. The damages are so extensive and it is beyond Sri Lanka’s capacity, and the single-term capacity of any government, to undertake systematic rebuilding of the damaged and washed-off infrastructure.
The government has its work cutout at least in three areas of immediate restoration and long term prevention. On landslides warning, it would seem NBRO has the technical capacity to do what it needs to do, and what seems to be missing is a system of multi-pronged and continuous engagement between the technical experts, on the one hand, and the political and administrative powers as well as local population and institutions, on the other. Such an arrangement is warranted because the landslide problem is severe, significant and it not going to go away now or ever.
Such an engagement will also provide for the technical awareness of the problem, its mitigation and the prevention of serious fallouts. A restructuring could start from the assignment of ministerial responsibilities, and giving NBRO experts constant presence at the highest level of decision making. The engagement should extend down the pyramid to involve every level of administration, including schools and civil society organizations at the local level.
As for external resources, several Asian countries, with India being the closest, are already engaged in multiple ways. It is up to the government to co-ordinate and deploy these friendly resources for maximum results. Sri Lanka is already teamed with India for meteorological monitoring and forecasting, and with Japan for landslide research and studies. These collaborations will obviously continue but they should be focused to fill gaps in climate predictions, and to enhance local level monitoring and prevention of landslides.
To deal with the restoration of the damaged infrastructure in multiple watershed areas, the government may want to revisit the Accelerated Mahaweli Scheme for an approach to deal with the current crisis. The genesis and implementation of that scheme involved as many flaws as it produced benefits, but what might be relevant here is to approach the different countries who were involved in funding and building the different Mahaweli headworks and downstream projects. Australia, Britain, Canada, China, Italy, Japan, Sweden and Germany are some of the countries that were involved in the old Mahaweli projects. They could be approached for technical and financial assistance to restore the damaged infrastructure pieces in the respective watershed areas where these countries were involved.
by Rajan Philips ✍️
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