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Is Catastrophic Collapse Imminent?

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by Kumar David

An optimist would venture to say that an economic catastrophe is not imminent, using the adjective imminent literally. He would be emboldened to make this remark because a restructuring deal, maybe a tough one, seems likely to come out of the negotiations with the IMF. Since all other lenders take their cue from the IMF thanks to its expertise and experience, Sri Lanka is likely to clinch agreements of different forms with China, India and Japan; life will go on. The country seems important enough for international actors such as India, China, America, Britain, Japan and the QUAD to be concerned about; in the case of India strategic concern is natural. America threatened war if Cuba stationed Soviet nuclear missiles, and now Russia is apoplectic at the thought of NATO getting its fingers around its neck via Ukraine, Finland and Sweden. No great or regional power will allow foreign bases near its land borders or its littoral waters. India’s anxiety is no surprise but such concerns should not be a passage to America and Europe. Actually, Lanka has little relevance to the Quad strategy of encircling China and is irrelevant to NATO’s scheme to suffocate Russia. The so-called Indian Ocean strategic zone too is a myth.

Therefore, my view is that the ongoing flurry is not primarily strategic or about world-power relations; the spurt of foreign interest is political and psychological. The psychological facet is that though we know we are a bunch of s.o.bs, foreigners, poor suckers, have affection for this island, and believe it or not its undeserving people. Let’s not spoil this advantage; let’s keep the charm of genuine non-alignment alive. Competition for mating-rights gets us, petrol, cooking-gas, milk-powder, pharmaceuticals and dhal. It would have been helpful if we had slaughtered fewer Tamils and now refrain from harassing Muslims on trumped-up charges. Lanka is no dream democracy; it is the site of militant and state-terrorism and crass military-police human rights abuse at the instigation of the JR, Premadasa Snr. and Mahinda regimes. It has been a locale of brazen plunder by political leaders, and not only in the (Raja)Paksa era. Racism is widespread among the people, but then ethnic intolerance is a global pandemic.

This is all true but there is another crucial aspect. Lanka is one of few post-colonial outposts where constitutional governance, admittedly imperfect, survives. Our giant neighbour India is another. This is different from Burma, Pakistan, Cambodia, Thailand (never colonised) and 50+ countries across Africa, Central Asia and Latin America. Hence my thesis is: India and the West, though they will be tough on economic reforms (IMF, West) and political changes (India), will not allow Lanka to collapse into anarchy and chaos. The uncles and aunties crowding over our crib will throw a lifeline before we asphyxiate. Can you imagine India, the West or China standing by and doing nothing if Lanka sinks into bedlam? We do not deserve a reprieve, but international political and psychological concerns will play out to our profit to prevent catastrophic meltdown. This is my hypothesis; let’s see if events prove the hunch correct.

However, this hypothesis does not allow conclusions to be drawn about politics or the traumatic fuel crisis of this (late June) moment; fuel is the litmus test that will decide whether RW’s administration survives. So far it has been paralysed and it has failed to inspire confidence that it has a way out. It must stop deceiving the public about the state of the fuel supply-chain. It will have to find an immediate fuel fix if mounting violence outside petrol stations is to be contained. This is the moment’s do-or-die challenge.

Of course, our congenital problems will persist but sudden death will likely be averted for now, that this till the IMF negotiations are finalised and implemented. Three IMF teams visited the country, one examining fiscal balance and seeking to restore a measure of equality between government expenditure and revenue and a second looking broadly at public finances (money supply, debt, banking, financial stability, social welfare). The third team worked on debt restructuring and interacted with legal advisors cum consultants hired by the government, Lazard and Clifford Chance. Chance is a London based law firm; Lazard engages in asset management, financial services and is also an investment bank with offices in New York, Paris and London. Judged by conventional norms, we have a strong squad on our side.

The wisest stance for Parliament and the opposition (SJB, TNA and JVP-NPF) to adopt at this juncture is to allow these negotiations to proceed and do nothing to disrupt them. Walking out of parliament when critical negotiations about the country’s financial destiny are in full-swing and the 21st Amendment (maybe renamed 22?) is about to be tabled, is both imprudent and irresponsible. The protocols imposed by the IMF could, at worst, be a repletion of its old Structural Adjustment designs: laissez-faire (nearly unchecked free-markets as in JR, Premadasa Snr times), pro-business, privatisation and foreign capital oriented, inimical to state participation in the economy, hostile to state spending on welfare (health and education) and pushing for labour-market reform (easier firing, lowering real wages). To be fair however we have to wait and see, and some changes to Lanka’s economic structures are in any case justified. RW’s natural inclinations would be to go along with right-wing, market-oriented proposals.

21A (22A?) now finalised and about to be tabled in Parliament is defective; too much power retained by the president despite substantial pruning. Instead of debating and discussing these two urgent matters in the House and from there taking them to the public arena, for the Opposition to walk out of Parliament is an unbelievable act of stupidity. I am surprised Anura, Vijitha Herath and Harini fell for this senseless stunt. They must return forthwith and address the tasks that await them; that is, critically examining the protocols agreed with the IMF and proposing amendments to 21 (22) A.

The RW government should be given the space to work through this emergency (EX) period when the country is in intensive care (say a month or two), but this is not what RW seems to have in his mind. He speaks of remaining in office for much longer: “Once we have established a firm economic foundation you (the people) can hand over power to any political party you wish”. This could be one year, or maybe he has it in mind to hang on till the November 2024 (Presidential) and August 2025 (Parliamentary) elections. RW would then be governing without a mandate from the people (reasonable during an existential crisis such as now) for an extended period; this is unreasonable.

Another matter is that the emergency medications that Lanka will be forced to swallow, whether it likes it or not, to secure urgent foreign debt restructuring via IMF and space from foreign creditors, will not be much different whether Ranil Wickremesinghe or Vladimir Lenin is PM. We are in such a mess that we have to grab any rope that is thrown to us. That’s why I say, allow Ranil to steer during the emergency (EX) period – which madman wants to shoot the pilot in mid-air halfway through a flight?

RW has his known proclivities and policy preferences and some will dovetail with anticipated IMF protocols. We can criticise but may have no option but to accept some. But allowing RW to set the economic direction of the country in next medium-term (MT) say three-year period is another matter; his remit has no electoral mandate. He has a right to his preferences and proclivities but no right to impose them on the country without a mandate. I make a crucial distinction between the period of negotiations with the IMF (the emergency EX phase) and a three to five-year MT economic, financial and social programme that requires a mandate. This is the distinction between trauma-therapy urgently administered during EX and longer-term recuperation strategies to rebuild economy and society.

Will a government elected in say one year be any better? Will there be a smaller number of donkeys and crooks? Have people learnt their lesson? There is a convicted felon seated in Cabinet right now – Mr President and Mr Prime Minister please explain. A multi-billion-rupee tax-dodger has been made a Minister. The voters of Ratnapura returned a convicted murderer to parliament. But this is what we call democracy – the right of the people to choose which bunch of vampires will suck their blood next time. Unfortunately, there is no acceptable alternative to democracy; a one-party state will not survive without open revolt because of our post-Donoughmore past and also because our national ethos and psychology will not accept it. The other option, a military regime will be hell on earth, so no more mention of that.

Why has the Lankan economy collapsed? Depending on how far back you go and your preferred ideology the answers are many, and all true. The following are the most frequently adduced.

* National consumption far exceeded production for seventy years and we ate our way into debt.

* Excess consumption was financed in part by foreign borrowing which plunged the country into the black-hole of ‘dollar indebtedness’.

* Export earnings fell far short of import expenditure (chronic balance-of-payments deficit).

* Government finances were out of kilter, with revenue falling way short of expenditure and the indebtedness was paid for by reckless rupee printing (chronic fiscal-deficit).

* Stupid projects by Rajapaksa regimes (Mattala Airport, Hambantota Harbour, Lotus Tower, Hambantota Stadium, show pieces named after Mahinda Rajapaksa) bankrupted the country.

* These projects were financially wasteful and executed either as prestige ventures or to collect commissions from contractors. These are part of staggering corruption activities amounting to billions of dollars perpetrated by the Rajapaksa Clan, re-elected with a massive majority!

* Breakdown of the rule of law and judicial independence.

No country can withstand such an inferno of epidemics, pestilences and plagues. It is all of this that has come together in 2022 to sink the ship. If it survives for the few EX-months, then the next step is elections to empower a government for MT. My preference is social-democracy with a well thought out dirigisme (state directed) component in its economic policy package. If it is necessary to wait till next time round for the electorate to mature and elect this option, let’s wait till vox populi comes around. Most likely a centrist or centre-right alliance will be elected in an election right now (options, Sajith, Ranil-Sajith, Dulles-led SLPP). Their right or centre-right policy spaces will be defined by terms like, market-oriented, business-friendly, private-sector led development, privatisation, restructured labour-market, FDI oriented, and rather harsh on the grassroots regarding welfare and subsidies.

A social-democratic alternative will have to borrow some of this but the difference will be in implementation and orientation. Eran Wickramaratne in “A Just Tax System” Daily Mirror 27 June writes in a vein where social-democrats seeking to direct the economy (dirigisme) into just directions cannot ask for more (Was he ever a Party Member!). In recent decades, lines have blurred everywhere between avant-garde liberalism and 21st-Century social-democracy.

This brings me to a last thought. The LSSP’s Tissa is sharp and intelligent; what on earth is he doing with that spent force Vasu and two jackals Wimal and Udaya? Isn’t it as clear as daylight that the LSSP must move over and align itself with the new left (JVP, FSP etc)? Yes, yes there’s 1971 and 1989 and the five-lessons, and etc and etc. Who doesn’t know all this? I wrote the first left critique of the JVP (Ajith Samaranayake did a brilliant translation) which the Party published 50 years ago. But it’s not that same world any longer Comrade!



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Inescapable need to deal with the past

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by Jehan Perera

The sudden reemergence of two major incidents from the past, that had become peripheral to the concerns of people today, has jolted the national polity and come to its centre stage.  These are the interview by former president Ranil Wickremesinghe with the Al Jazeera television station that elicited the Batalanda issue and now the sanctioning of three former military commanders of the Sri Lankan armed forces and an LTTE commander, who switched sides and joined the government.  The key lesson that these two incidents give is that allegations of mass crimes, whether they arise nationally or internationally, have to be dealt with at some time or the other.  If they are not, they continue to fester beneath the surface until they rise again in a most unexpected way and when they may be more difficult to deal with.

In the case of the Batalanda interrogation site, the sudden reemergence of issues that seemed buried in the past has given rise to conjecture.  The Batalanda issue, which goes back 37 years, was never totally off the radar.  But after the last of the commission reports of the JVP period had been published over two decades ago, this matter was no longer at the forefront of public consciousness.  Most of those in the younger generations who were too young to know what happened at that time, or born afterwards, would scarcely have any idea of what happened at Batalanda.  But once the issue of human rights violations surfaced on Al Jazeera television they have come to occupy centre stage. From the day the former president gave his fateful interview there are commentaries on it both in the mainstream media and on social media.

There seems to be a sustained effort to keep the issue alive.  The issues of Batalanda provide good fodder to politicians who are campaigning for election at the forthcoming Local Government elections on May 6.  It is notable that the publicity on what transpired at Batalanda provides a way in which the outcome of the forthcoming local government elections in the worst affected parts of the country may be swayed.  The problem is that the main contesting political parties are liable to be accused of participation in the JVP insurrection or its suppression or both.  This may account for the widening of the scope of the allegations to include other sites such as Matale.

POLITICAL IMPERATIVES

The emergence at this time of the human rights violations and war crimes that took place during the LTTE war have their own political reasons, though these are external. The pursuit of truth and accountability must be universal and free from political motivations. Justice cannot be applied selectively. While human rights violations and war crimes call for universal standards that are applicable to all including those being committed at this time in Gaza and Ukraine, political imperatives influence what is surfaced.  The sanctioning of the four military commanders by the UK government has been justified by the UK government minister concerned as being the fulfilment of an election pledge that he had made to his constituents.  It is notable that the countries at the forefront of justice for Sri Lanka have large Tamil Diasporas that act as vote banks. It usually takes long time to prosecute human rights violations internationally whether it be in South America or East Timor and diasporas have the staying power and resources to keep going on.

 In its response to the sanctions placed on the military commanders, the government’s position is that such unilateral decisions by foreign government are not helpful and complicate the task of national reconciliation.  It has faced criticism for its restrained response, with some expecting a more forceful rebuttal against the international community. However, the NPP government is not the first to have had to face such problems.  The sanctioning of military commanders and even of former presidents has taken place during the periods of previous governments.   One of the former commanders who has been sanctioned by the UK government at this time was also sanctioned by the US government in 2020.  This was followed by the Canadian government which sanctioned two former presidents in 2023.  Neither of the two governments in power at that time took visibly stronger stands.

In addition, resolutions on Sri Lanka have been a regular occurrence and have been passed over the Sri Lankan government’s opposition since 2012.  Apart from the very first vote that took place in 2009 when the government promised to take necessary action to deal with the human rights violations of the past, and won that vote, the government has lost every succeeding vote with the margins of defeat becoming bigger and bigger.  This process has now culminated in an evidence gathering unit being set up in Geneva to collect evidence of human rights violations in Sri Lanka that is on offer to international governments to use.  This is not a safe situation for Sri Lankan leaders to be in as they can be taken before international courts in foreign countries. It is important for Sri Lanka’s sovereignty and dignity as a country that this trend comes to an end.

COMPREHENSIVE SOLUTION

A peaceful future for Sri Lanka requires a multi-dimensional approach that addresses the root causes of conflict while fostering reconciliation, justice, and inclusive development. So far the government’s response to the international pressures is to indicate that it will strengthen the internal mechanisms already in place like the Office on Missing Persons and in addition to set up a truth and reconciliation commission.   The difficulty that the government will face is to obtain a national consensus behind this truth and reconciliation commission.  Tamil parties and victims’ groups in particular have voiced scepticism about the value of this mechanism. They have seen commissions come and commissions go. Sinhalese nationalist parties are also highly critical of the need for such commissions.  As the Nawaz Commission appointed to identify the recommendations of previous commissions observed, “Our island nation has had a surfeit of commissions. Many witnesses who testified before this commission narrated their disappointment of going before previous commissions and achieving nothing in return.”

Former minister Prof G L Peiris has written a detailed critique of the proposed truth and reconciliation law that the previous government prepared but did not present to parliament.

In his critique, Prof Peiris had drawn from the South African truth and reconciliation commission which is the best known and most thoroughly implemented one in the world.  He points out that the South African commission had a mandate to cover the entire country and not only some parts of it like the Sri Lankan law proposes.  The need for a Sri Lankan truth and reconciliation commission to cover the entire country and not only the north and east is clear in the reemergence of the Batalanda issue.  Serious human rights violations have occurred in all parts of the country, and to those from all ethnic and religious communities, and not only in the north and east.

Dealing with the past can only be successful in the context of a “system change” in which there is mutual agreement about the future.  The longer this is delayed, the more scepticism will grow among victims and the broader public about the government’s commitment to a solution. The important feature of the South African commission was that it was part of a larger political process aimed to build national consensus through a long and strenuous process of consultations.  The ultimate goal of the South African reconciliation process was a comprehensive political settlement that included power-sharing between racial groups and accountability measures that facilitated healing for all sides. If Sri Lanka is to achieve genuine reconciliation, it is necessary to learn from these experiences and take decisive steps to address past injustices in a manner that fosters lasting national unity.  A peaceful Sri Lanka is possible if the government, opposition and people commit to truth, justice and inclusivity.

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Unleashing Minds: From oppression to liberation

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“Private tuition centres, private schools, and institutions offering degree programmes for a fee all play a significant role in deepening the disparities between different social classes.”

By Anushka Kahandagamage

Education should be genuinely ‘free’—not just in the sense of being free from privatisation, but also in a way that empowers students by freeing them from oppressive structures. It should provide them with the knowledge and tools necessary to think critically, question the status quo, and ultimately liberate themselves from oppressive systems.

Education as an oppressive structure

Education should empower students to think critically, challenge oppression, and envision a more just and equal world. However, in its current state, education often operates as a mechanism of oppression rather than liberation. Instead of fostering independent thinking and change, the education system tends to reinforce the existing power dynamics and social hierarchies. It often upholds the status quo by teaching conformity and compliance rather than critical inquiry and transformation. This results in the reproduction of various inequalities, including economic, racial, and social disparities, further entrenching divisions within society. As a result, instead of being a force for personal and societal empowerment, education inadvertently perpetuates the very systems that contribute to injustice and inequality.

Education sustaining the class structure

Due to the widespread privatisation of education, the system continues to reinforce and sustain existing class structures. Private tuition centres, private schools, and institutions offering degree programmes for a fee all play a significant role in deepening the disparities between different social classes. These private entities often cater to the more affluent segments of society, granting them access to superior education and resources. In contrast, students from less privileged backgrounds are left with fewer opportunities and limited access to quality education, exacerbating the divide between the wealthy and the underprivileged. This growing gap in educational access not only limits social mobility but also perpetuates a cycle where the privileged continue to secure better opportunities while the less fortunate struggle to break free from the constraints of their socio-economic status.

Gender Oppression

Education subtly perpetuates gender oppression in society by reinforcing stereotypes, promoting gender insensitivity, and failing to create a gender-sensitive education system. And some of the policymakers do perpetuate this gender insensitive education by misinforming people. In a recent press conference, one of the former members of Parliament, Wimal Weerawansa, accused gender studies of spreading a ‘disease’ among students. In the year 2025, we are still hearing such absurdities discouraging gender studies. It is troubling and perplexing to hear such outdated and regressive views being voiced by public figures, particularly at a time when societies, worldwide, are increasingly embracing diversity and inclusion. These comments not only undermine the importance of gender studies as an academic field but also reinforce harmful stereotypes that marginalise individuals who do not fit into traditional gender roles. As we move forward in an era of greater social progress, such antiquated views only serve to hinder the ongoing work of fostering equality and understanding for all people, regardless of gender identity.

Students, whether in schools or universities, are often immersed in an educational discourse where gender is treated as something external, rather than an essential aspect of their everyday lives. In this framework, gender is framed as a concern primarily for “non-males,” which marginalises the broader societal impact of gender issues. This perspective fails to recognise that gender dynamics affect everyone, regardless of their gender identity, and that understanding and addressing gender inequality is crucial for all individuals in society.

A poignant example of this issue can be seen in the recent troubling case of sexual abuse involving a medical doctor. The public discussion surrounding the incident, particularly the media’s decision to disclose the victim’s confidential statement, is deeply concerning. This lack of respect for privacy and sensitivity highlights the pervasive disregard for gender issues in society.

What makes this situation even more alarming is that such media behaviour is not an isolated incident, but rather reflects a broader pattern in a society where gender sensitivity is often dismissed or ignored. In many circles, advocating for gender equality and sensitivity is stigmatised, and is even seen as a ‘disease’ or a disruptive force to the status quo. This attitude contributes to a culture where harmful gender stereotypes persist, and where important conversations about gender equity are sidelined or distorted. Ultimately, this reflects the deeper societal need for an education system that is more attuned to gender sensitivity, recognising its critical role in shaping the world students will inherit and navigate.

To break free from these gender hierarchies there should be, among other things, a gender sensitive education system, which does not limit gender studies to a semester or a mere subject.

Ragging

The inequality that persists in class and regional power structures (Colombo and non-Colombo division) creeps into universities. While ragging is popularly seen as an act of integrating freshers into the system, its roots lie in the deeply divided class and ethno-religious divisions within society.

In certain faculties, senior students may ask junior female students to wear certain fabrics typically worn at home (cheetta dresses) and braid their hair into two plaits, while male students are required to wear white, long-sleeved shirts without belts. Both men and women must wear bathroom slippers. These actions are framed as efforts to make everyone equal, free from class divisions. However, these gendered and ethicised practices stem from unequal and oppressive class structures in society and are gradually infiltrating university culture as mechanisms of oppression.The inequality that persists in gradually makes its way into academic institutions, particularly universities.

These practices are ostensibly intended to create a sense of uniformity and equality among students, removing visible markers of class distinction. However, what is overlooked is that these actions stem from deeply ingrained and unequal social structures that are inherently oppressive. Instead of fostering equality, they reinforce a system where hierarchical power dynamics in the society—rooted in class, gender, and region—are confronted with oppression and violence which is embedded in ragging, creating another system of oppression.

Uncritical Students

In Sri Lanka, and in many other countries across the region, it is common for university students to address their lecturers as ‘Sir’ and ‘Madam.’ This practice is not just a matter of politeness, but rather a reflection of deeply ingrained societal norms that date back to the feudal and colonial eras. The use of these titles reinforces a hierarchical structure within the educational system, where authority is unquestioned, and students are expected to show deference to their professors.

Historically, during colonial rule, the education system was structured around European models, which often emphasised rigid social distinctions and the authority of those in power. The titles ‘Sir’ and ‘Madam’ served to uphold this structure, positioning lecturers as figures of authority who were to be respected and rarely challenged. Even after the end of colonial rule, these practices continued to permeate the education system, becoming normalised as part of the culture.

This practice perpetuates a culture of obedience and respect for authority that discourages critical thinking and active questioning. In this context, students are conditioned to see their lecturers as figures of unquestionable authority, discouraging dialogue, dissent, or challenging the status quo. This hierarchical dynamic can limit intellectual growth and discourage students from engaging in open, critical discussions that could lead to progressive change within both academia and society at large.

Unleashing minds

The transformation of these structures lies in the hands of multiple parties, including academics, students, society, and policymakers. Policymakers must create and enforce policies that discourage the privatisation of education, ensure equal access for all students, regardless of class dynamics, gender, etc. Education should be regarded as a fundamental right, not a privilege available only to a select few. Such policies should also actively promote gender equality and inclusivity, addressing the barriers that prevent women, LGBTQ+ individuals, and other marginalised genders from accessing and succeeding in education. Practices that perpetuate gender inequality, such as sexism, discrimination, or gender-based violence, need to be addressed head-on. Institutions must prioritise gender studies and sensitivity training to cultivate an environment of respect and understanding, where all students, regardless of gender, feel safe and valued.

At the same time, the micro-ecosystems of hierarchy within institutions—such as maintaining outdated power structures and social divisions—must be thoroughly examined and challenged. Universities must foster environments where critical thinking, mutual respect, and inclusivity—across both class and gender—are prioritised. By creating spaces where all minds can flourish, free from the constraints of entrenched hierarchies, we can build a more equitable and intellectually vibrant educational system—one that truly unleashes the potential of all students, regardless of their social background.

(Anushka Kahandagamage is the General Secretary of the Colombo Institute for Human Sciences)

Kuppi is a politics and pedagogy happening on the margins of the lecture hall that parodies, subverts, and simultaneously reaffirms social hierarchies.

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New vision for bassist Benjy

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It’s a known fact that whenever bassist Benjy Ranabahu booms into action he literally lights up the stage, and the exciting news I have for music lovers, this week, is that Benjy is coming up with a new vision.

One thought that this exciting bassist may give the music scene a layoff, after his return from the Seychelles early this year.

At that point in time, he indicated to us that he hasn’t quit the music scene, but that he would like to take a break from the showbiz setup.

“I’m taking things easy at the moment…just need to relax and then decide what my future plans would be,” he said.

However, the good news is that Benjy’s future plans would materialise sooner than one thought.

Yes, Benjy is putting together his own band, with a vision to give music lovers something different, something dynamic.

He has already got the lineup to do the needful, he says, and the guys are now working on their repertoire.

The five-piece lineup will include lead, rhythm, bass, keyboards and drums and the plus factor, said Benjy, is that they all sing.

A female vocalist has also been added to this setup, said Benjy.

“She is relatively new to the scene, but with a trained voice, and that means we have something new to offer music lovers.”

The setup met last week and had a frank discussion on how they intend taking on the music scene and everyone seems excited to get on stage and do the needful, Benjy added.

Benjy went on to say that they are now spending their time rehearsing as they are very keen to gel as a team, because their skills and personalities fit together well.

“The guys I’ve got are all extremely talented and skillful in their profession and they have been around for quite a while, performing as professionals, both here and abroad.”

Benjy himself has performed with several top bands in the past and also had his own band – Aquarius.

Aquarius had quite a few foreign contracts, as well, performing in Europe and in the Middle East, and Benjy is now ready to do it again!

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