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India’s COVID Crisis – Threat to the Entire World

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by Professor Jayantha Lal Ratnasekera

Vice Chancellor, Uva Wellassa University

The second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic, which started in the latter part of April, in India, continues to be threatening. Though there has been a significant decrease in the daily count of fresh corona patients, from 400,000 in the first week of May to 200,000 in the fourth week, the situation is still far from satisfactory. The total number of corona deaths has passed the 300,000 mark, and the total number of COVID-19 patients has exceeded 275 million as of May 28, 2021. Even though the vaccination process has been accelerated during the past few days, India’s healthcare system has not fully recovered yet. Still, there is a severe shortage of some drugs, hospital beds, oxygen, ventilators, etc., in many areas. Furthermore, the rapid spread of the black fungus disease (Mucormycosis) has aggravated the health crisis.

Obviously, a number of factors contributed to this unexpected surge in April, and the emergence of new, more infectious virus variants is considered to be one of the main reasons. Experimental data show that the variant B.1.1.7, first found in the UK, is the dominant virus variant in the state of Punjab. A new, more dangerous variant called B.1.167, first identified in India late last year, was found to be dominant in the state of Maharashtra. B.1.167 variant, which is already found in more than 50 countries, is said to be containing two mutations having an increased transmissibility. Further, the slow progress in the vaccination process till April, has been another contributory factor to the devastating second COVID-19 wave. India, while being the leading manufacturer of anti-COVID vaccine, has commenced the vaccination process in January 2021, but the progress has been rather slow. By mid-April, the first dose of the vaccine was administered to 10% of the total population, and both two doses were given to 2% of the population.

However, since the vaccination process got underway in January, the attitude of the majority of people in India including the political authorities towards the pandemic has changed significantly. The arrival of the vaccine made everyone complacent and there was a misapprehension among many that India had already tackled the COVID-19 pandemic. In February 2021, the Bharatiya Janatha Party passed a resolution praising Prime Minister Narendra Modi for his leadership in turning India to a “victorious nation in the fight against COVID-19”. Under these circumstances, travel restrictions were relaxed, and political rallies and religious ceremonies, with mass gatherings, were allowed. Elections were held in a number of states and thousands of people gathered at political rallies. In a rally held in West Bengal, Prime Minister Narendra Modi said that he was thrilled to see such a large crowd. Simultaneously, a number of religious festivities were held and the Hindu pilgrimage, Kumbh Mela, drew millions of worshippers. As reported by The Hindustan Times, more than 9 million people bathed in the Ganga river during the period from January 14 to April 27, 2021, as a ritual of the Kumbh Mela festival. Thus, the false assumption that India had contained the pandemic contributed to the disastrous second wave of the pandemic.

However, what we should understand is that the current COVID crisis in India will not be limited to its territory; it is a real threat to the entire world. The first coronavirus patient was found in Wuhan city, Hubei Province, in China, December 2019, and, in January 2020, the World Health Organization (WHO) declared a Public Health Emergency of International Concern, as the virus had spread outside China. Later in March 2020, the WHO declared the novel coronavirus or COVID-19 virus as a Global Pandemic.

Though the pandemic has been troubling the entire world for more than one and half years now, some of the countries, especially the so-called developed countries, were reluctant to accept its global nature. Instead of joining hands with the WHO to curb the virus, some countries have been trying to control the virus on their own. However, the current Indian COVID crisis has shocked the entire world and forced even the developed nations to change their approach and attitudes as regards the pandemic.

Firstly, we should not forget that with more than 1.5 billion people, India alone accounts for about 1/6 of the entire world population. This means the Indian crisis definitely will not be limited to its own territory. As emphasised by Dr. Saumya Swaminathan, WHO’s chief scientist, “the virus does not respect borders, or nationalities, or age, or sex or religion”. When the number of infectious persons increases in such a populous country, there is a high probability of the emergence of new virus variants. Every single infection provides the virus an opportunity to evolve and produce a mutation. In other words, when the number of COVID infections in a country is high, then the probability of emergence of new variants is also high. In turn, these new virus variants might spread into other countries. For example, it was reported that on a recent flight from New Delhi to Hong Kong, 50 passengers were tested positive for COID-19. As mentioned above, the more dangerous variant B.1.167 has is found in more than 50 countries.

It has to be noted that the threat of B.1.167 variant spreading from India to the neighbouring countries such as Bangladesh, Nepal, Sri Lanka is even higher. In fact, a significant increase in the number of COVID-19 patients was observed from early May, in Nepal. The total number of corona patients in Nepal has already exceeded 540,000 and total number of corona deaths has reached the 7,000 mark. With a relatively weaker healthcare system, only 2.2% of the total population of Nepal has been vaccinated to-date. Dr. Netra Prasad Timsina, Chairman of the Nepal Red Cross Society has warned that if the present trend is not arrested immediately, Nepal will have to face a situation very much similar to the current Indian one, in a few weeks’ time.

Likewise, the threat to Sri Lanka also cannot be underestimated. A few weeks ago, it was reported that an Indian national was found infected with the B.1.167 variant in a quarantine centre. Also, there were news reports about attempts by Sri Lankans living in India, especially in Tamil Nadu, to come to Sri Lanka, illegally, by boat. With the deteriorating conditions in the refugee camps in Tamil Nadu, these illegal attempts might increase further. Furthermore, it has been a long tradition of Sri Lankan fishermen to have contacts with their Indian counterparts in the deep sea.

The negative impact of the on-going Indian COVID crisis is not limited to the possibility of the virus spread. More importantly, India is supposed to produce 70% of the world’s COVID vaccine requirement, and the Serum Institute of India was given the rights to produce AstraZeneca vaccine. India is supposed to provide a large quantity of the vaccine to low and middle-income countries under the Covax facility backed by the UN and WHO. However, India has temporarily suspended the export of the COVID vaccine due to its domestic crisis. Although the Indian authorities have announced that they might recommence the export of vaccines in October, the temporary suspension has already adversely affected vaccination roll-outs in many countries including Sri Lanka. Moreover, the pharmaceutical industry in India is the third largest in the world in terms of volume, and 20% of the global exports of generic drugs is done by India. Obviously, if the Indian pharmaceutical industry happens to be in jeopardy, it will have dire consequences for the healthcare systems around the world. In such a scenario, a severe shortage of drugs around the world could also be anticipated.

In addition, India is the fifth largest economy in the world and India’s contribution to the global economic growth is extensive. With a relatively high annual growth rate of 4 to 8% during last few years, India has had a significant impact on the world economy. If India’s economy contracts drastically due to the present crisis, it will have a devastating effect on the economies of many countries. If the travel restrictions in respect of India continue for a long time, they will affect many businesses around the world. Furthermore, India provides a large number of back-office staff for many sectors in Europe and the US. Considering all these issues, it is imperative that all countries help India come out of this crisis. US President Joe Biden was one of the first world leaders to announce the readiness to support India, and the US has already sent several flights with essential goods to India. It is noteworthy that even Pakistan has come forward to help India in this difficult time. Russia has sent a stock of its COVID vaccine, Sputnik V, to India and granted permission to India to produce its vaccine.

So, the current COVID crisis in India poses a threat to the entire world and has taught the world many lessons. It has demonstrated that Covid-19 is a real global health emergency threatening humanity, and as such a concerted global effort is needed to tackle it at this crucial moment. It has reminded us that all nations are interconnected as never before, and no one will be safe until everyone is safe.



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Civilizational dialogue proving a remote possibility as realpolitik rages

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Political leaders at the Shanghai Cooperation Organization Summit 2026. (Photo by PROKOFYEV / POOL / AFP)

Looking back over the years since the 9/11 catastrophe, it could be said that barring former Iranian President Mohammad Khatami no world political leader of note has made an earnest effort to change the nature of global political discourse for the better. Khatami won world acclaim for his pronouncement that the time is right to launch and sustain a ‘Dialogue among Civilizations’.

This was in marked contrast to US political scientist Samuel P. Huntingdon’s epochal theses, formulated in the wake of 9/11 and other global political tumults that the Post Cold War era is essentially one of conflicts among civilizations. That is, people’s identity markers, such as culture and religion, are the prime shaping forces of international conflicts.

From a Political Realism standpoint, Huntingdon’s theory may seem to have gained in credibility over the years but it is Khatami’s pronouncement that has evoked an empathetic response in the hearts and minds of publics world wide. So much so, 2001 was proclaimed by the UN General Assembly as the ‘Year of Dialogue among Civilizations’.

It could be said that the latter proclamation was an endeavour to give back to humans their essential identity of peace-makers. It was an eschewing of the position that war and conflict are central to the human condition and amounted to upholding constructive dialogue among peoples and civilizations as a path to peace.

That things have not worked out in the world in keeping with the expectations of peace makers does not in any way invalidate the thesis that peace is the essential propensity of humans.

If peace-making is seemingly ineffective it is primarily because the path to peace is narrow, tortuous and time-consuming. On the other hand, violence usually misleadingly recommends itself to the human as the more expedient, cost-effective way out of a conflictual situation. However, the ultimate cost of the latter approach is prohibitive because it brutalizes the human beyond recognition.

Some of the evidence is before our eyes. The Trump administration, for example, has, minus much forethought, unleashed what may be described as a ‘quick-fix’ war against Iran but is now finding that it is in a veritable military quagmire in West Asia. The priority for the administration now seems to be a face-saving escape strategy. Such are the costs of the war option.

However, there is no denying that much remains to be done by the world community to bring peoples and cultures together with a view to enabling them to work as one for the cause of a less dangerous world.

Meanwhile, the broad divisions in international politics continue and past political polarities are lingering to the detriment of enhanced international understanding. The East and the West and the South and the North, for instance, are continuing to work in separate collectives, more or less, and no notable efforts are being made by the international community to bring these sides together for the purpose of united constructive action that could usher greater international well being.

The recent Shanghai Cooperation Organization Summit, 2026, held in Kyrgyztan was a replication of the above broad trends but there were some statements at the forum by Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi that deserve special scrutiny and comment.

Modi was quoted saying among other things: ‘The land of Gandhi and the land of Buddha share a single message: the path to peace!..We must move away from endless war towards an end to the war. This is essentially for the well being of humanity. A peaceful resolution to all issues at the earliest is the call of humanity, and this is India’s message.’

The above is the language of international peace and unity. It is such language that will help in building bridges among civilizations and advance the cause of world peace. Besides, it will help bring a measure of understanding between North and South.

In this regard, the Trump administration could take a leaf or more from the Modi government. Unless it makes a ‘U turn’, as it were, in the direction of peace and reconciliation it is very unlikely that the US and the world would experience any stability worth speaking of.

Right now the US is savaging the sovereignty of Venezuela. It is a question of the ‘Empire striking back’ but Venezuela is a far cry from Iran. Iran has outsmarted the US on the battle field and is in a position to influence broad trends in the world economy since it still has control over the Hormuz Straits. That is, Iran could exercise a determining influence over world oil, gas and energy prices. In short, the US consumer’s future peace of mind is very much in the hands of Iran.

Given the above backdrop it should have dawned on the US political leadership that working towards cordial relations with Iran is the most advisable option. The US, simply, has too much to lose otherwise.

Likewise, Russia too needs to take a leaf from India. It is plain to see that its invasion of Ukraine is proving totally ineffective. It has not brought any measure of peace for the Russian people. Russia is right now experiencing a rerun of its military misadventure in Afghanistan. On the other hand, sections of the peoples concerned have been victimized and even brutalized.

Accordingly, there needs to be a coming together of democratic opinion worldwide for a fresh consideration of the options facing humanity. There is a dire need for value-based politics to take the place of Realpolitik. Besides, the language of peace and humanity needs to replace current divisive discourse with its stress on polarities and antagonisms.

International organizations of the stature of the UN need to take the lead in spearheading the above initiatives. Right now the UN gives the impression of being a spent force. This columnist hopes that he would be proved wrong on this score because the UN remains the only hope of the poor and victimized. It will be in the interests of all peoples for the UN to rejuvenate itself and dedicate itself increasingly enthusiastically to the cause of international peace.

Whether it be the South or North, dynamic, visionary political leadership and direction emerges as essential. The need is for voices that would espouse peace and accord across boundaries and divisions. For South Asia, India and Pakistan have the potential to fill this lacuna.

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Sri Lanka’s constitutional test: Judicial independence beyond immediate political moment

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Superior Court Complex, Colombo

by Shelton Dharmaratne

Sri Lanka has reached an important constitutional moment.

The proposed 22nd Amendment has moved beyond political debate and into the constitutional process through which its validity will be examined. That development should change the character of the national discussion.

That is understandable in a politically contested environment. But Sri Lanka should now resist reducing a question of constitutional design to a contest over political positions.

The deeper issue concerns the relationship between constitutional reform, judicial independence and public confidence in the institutions of the State.

The Supreme Court will determine the constitutional questions before it. Public commentators should therefore exercise restraint in predicting, interpreting or seeking to influence that determination. But restraint does not require silence. It requires a more rigorous discussion of the institutional principles at stake.

A narrower constitutional question than the political debate suggests

The proposed amendment principally concerns the retirement ages of judges of the Supreme Court and Court of Appeal, together with an increase in the maximum number of judges permitted on the Court of Appeal.

Under the proposal, the retirement age of Supreme Court judges would rise from 65 to 67 and that of Court of Appeal judges from 63 to 65. The maximum number of Court of Appeal judges would also increase from 19 to 24.

Other proposed changes concerning the retirement ages of judges in the lower courts arise under separate legislation. This distinction matters because the public debate has sometimes treated the wider package of judicial reform as though it formed a single constitutional proposal.

Nor should the central issue be reduced to whether retaining experienced judges is inherently good or inherently dangerous. Both propositions are too simplistic.

Sri Lanka faces a substantial burden of pending litigation, and delays in the administration of justice impose significant costs on citizens, businesses and the State. Experienced judges represent an institutional resource. Continuity, accumulated knowledge and familiarity with complex areas of law cannot always be replaced immediately.

Those are legitimate policy considerations.

But the opposing concern is equally important: judicial tenure is not merely an employment condition. It is a structural component of judicial independence.

The real question is institutional

The critical question is not whether an individual judge is capable of acting impartially. It is whether the constitutional structure provides adequate protection against circumstances in which judicial tenure could become connected, directly or indirectly, with political authority.

That is an institutional question, not an accusation against individual judges.

A judge may be entirely conscientious and independent while the institutional arrangements surrounding the judiciary nevertheless create public doubts about independence. Constitutional democracies therefore cannot depend solely on the personal integrity of office-holders. They must construct institutions capable of preserving independence even when governments, individuals and political circumstances change.

This is particularly relevant when constitutional reform concerns the tenure of serving members of the superior judiciary.

The institutional sensitivity of such a proposal should neither be exaggerated into an allegation of improper motive nor dismissed as irrelevant. The appropriate response is transparency, procedural fairness and confidence in constitutional safeguards.

Legitimate objectives do not settle constitutional questions

The government has stated that its objectives include strengthening the administration of justice, addressing delays, retaining judicial experience and increasing institutional capacity.

Those objectives deserve serious consideration. Sri Lanka needs judicial reform. Citizens waiting years for their cases to be concluded experience the justice system very differently from those discussing it in Parliament, courtrooms or universities.

A government is therefore entitled to propose reforms designed to improve judicial efficiency.

But legitimate objectives do not automatically resolve constitutional objections. The relevant question is whether the means chosen are compatible with the constitutional structure and whether sufficient safeguards exist against unintended institutional consequences.

That is precisely why constitutional scrutiny matters.

The concerns of the Bar Association of Sri Lanka (BASL) should likewise be examined without political labelling. Opposition to the proposed changes should not automatically be characterised as opposition to judicial reform or an attempt to obstruct the government. At the same time, invoking judicial independence does not place any argument beyond scrutiny.

The appropriate questions are straightforward:

Does extending judicial tenure strengthen the administration of justice?

What risks, if any, could it create for judicial independence?

Are adequate institutional safeguards in place?

Does the proposal operate prospectively, or does it affect judges already serving?

Could the same objectives be achieved by filling vacancies, increasing judicial capacity, improving court administration and strengthening case management?

These questions can be examined rationally without attributing improper motives to either side.

Judicial vacancies and institutional confidence

Recent concerns raised by the BASL regarding judicial vacancies add another dimension to the debate. The BASL has argued that vacancies in the Supreme Court contributed to the retirement of a senior Court of Appeal judge without promotion to the Supreme Court, despite vacancies having existed. It has also raised concerns regarding forthcoming judicial retirements and the need for timely consideration of appointments.

Such matters should not be treated as evidence of the motives behind the proposed amendment. They do, however, illustrate a broader principle.

Judicial independence is shaped not only by the retirement age written into the Constitution. It is also influenced by how vacancies are filled, how promotions are determined, how seniority and merit are assessed, and whether judicial officers and the public believe that institutional decisions are made according to transparent and defensible criteria.

The government has an opportunity to address these concerns constructively.

Prompt appointments based on publicly defensible principles would strengthen confidence in the judiciary irrespective of the eventual outcome of the constitutional debate.

Seniority, merit and transparent criteria

The controversy also exposes a longstanding question concerning judicial appointments.

Seniority has traditionally carried considerable weight in judicial advancement. Yet seniority alone need not be the sole measure of merit. Conversely, replacing established practices with undefined assessments of “merit” could create another institutional problem.

If governments or appointing authorities can determine which judges are sufficiently meritorious without clear and objective criteria, uncertainty itself may become a source of institutional anxiety.

Sri Lanka would therefore benefit from clearer, objective and defensible standards governing judicial appointments and promotions.

Such standards would protect judges as well as appointing authorities. They would reduce opportunities for favouritism, strengthen institutional confidence and make it harder for political actors to portray every appointment as politically motivated.

Institutional rules are stronger safeguards than assurances of good intentions.

The State is larger than any government

One principle deserves particular emphasis: a government is not the State.

Governments are temporary. The constitutional State is continuing. Political parties change, parliamentary majorities change and political priorities change. The judiciary, however, must continue to function independently of whoever occupies the government benches.

The judiciary is neither a government institution in the political sense nor an Opposition institution. It is an institution of the State whose legitimacy depends upon its independence from both.

For that reason, governments should exercise particular caution when proposing constitutional changes affecting the judiciary, even where the policy objectives are legitimate.

The stronger a government is politically, the greater its responsibility to demonstrate institutional restraint.

That is not political weakness. It is constitutional maturity.

Public confidence is a constitutional asset

The most consequential issue may ultimately be neither retirement age nor judicial capacity, but public confidence.

Courts do not possess political power in the conventional sense. Their authority rests substantially on the acceptance of their decisions as legitimate.

Citizens will sometimes disagree with judicial decisions. But where the judiciary is perceived as independent, even unpopular decisions can command respect. If judicial institutions are perceived as being shaped by political convenience, even legally sound decisions may become vulnerable to suspicion.

Constitutional reform affecting judicial tenure must therefore be evaluated not only by its immediate administrative benefits but also by its effect on institutional credibility.

A reform that produces short-term efficiency while weakening confidence in judicial independence could impose a greater long-term cost. Conversely, reform that improves efficiency while preserving independence can strengthen both justice and public trust.

The challenge is not to choose between judicial efficiency and judicial independence. It is to achieve both.

If a referendum arises …

If the constitutional process ultimately requires approval by the people at a referendum, the debate should rise above the conventional government versus Opposition contest.

The electorate should be given a clear constitutional question and sufficient information to assess it.

Citizens should understand what problem the amendment seeks to address, why the proposed mechanism is considered necessary, what institutional risks have been identified, what safeguards exist and whether alternative measures could achieve the same objectives.

A constitutional referendum deserves a higher standard of public discussion than an ordinary election campaign.

The people would not merely be choosing a political side. They would be deciding the institutional framework within which political power and judicial authority operate.

Beyond who wins

The most important question arising from the proposed Twenty-Second Amendment is therefore not simply whether the government succeeds or whether the Opposition and BASL prevail.

Nor is it ultimately whether judicial retirement ages become 67 and 65 or remain unchanged.

Those are immediate constitutional questions. The deeper issue is what Sri Lanka learns from the controversy.

If the government seeks to modernise and strengthen the justice system, that objective deserves serious consideration. If the BASL and others warn that particular reforms may affect judicial independence, those concerns deserve equally serious examination.

Neither side strengthens the country by assuming that the other is acting in bad faith.

The constitutional system is strongest when legitimate disagreements are resolved through institutions rather than political pressure.

Whatever the eventual constitutional outcome, Sri Lanka will still face the underlying challenges of judicial vacancies, case delays, institutional capacity, judicial appointments and public confidence. Those problems will not disappear with a judicial determination, nor should the national conversation end there.

Sri Lanka should instead seek a broader consensus around a fundamental proposition:

Judicial reform and judicial independence are not competing objectives.

The real challenge is to pursue reform in a manner that strengthens the judiciary without placing its independence under suspicion.

That requires sound legislation, transparent appointments, adequate resources, efficient court administration, responsible political conduct and safeguards capable of surviving changes of government.

The present controversy will eventually pass. Political arguments surrounding it will fade.

But constitutional arrangements can endure for decades.

That is why Sri Lanka must look beyond the immediate political contest.

The ultimate test is not who wins today’s constitutional argument. It is whether, when the political moment has passed, Sri Lanka has a judiciary that is more efficient, more accessible and more trusted—while remaining sufficiently independent to hold every government, including future governments, within the boundaries of the Constitution.

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Farewell to a Fashion Icon

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Chula was very fond of The Island newspaper and kept in touch with us on a regular basis (L) / Chula: Sent us this photo for Glam Scene, just a couple of weeks ago (R)

Sri Lanka’s fashion world lost one of its brightest stars Monday morning – veteran model, actress, and elite pageant trainer Chulpadmendra “Chula” Kumarapathirana.

Her sudden demise has certainly come as a shock to many.

Chula had just completed a major event on Sunday (30th August), and was no more in the land of the living the following day (31st August).

Born in Colombo, she was an old girl of Buddhist Ladies’ College and later studied at the National Institute of Business Management, and has many awesome achievements to her credit.

In 2006, she won the “Miss Tourism Model of the World Press Award” in Tanzania.

She entered the entertainment industry, as an actress, and gained popularity through the teledrama “Wahinna Muthu Wessak.”

Chulpadmendra has been on TV, and many Sri Lankan hip-hop music videos, including “Hanthane” and “Heena Hirimal”, and has had several other minor acting jobs since then.

She hosted the Derana Miss Sri Lanka for Miss World 2008 and even participated in the reality TV show Sirasa Dancing Star.

For over 25 years Chula was active in local and international fashion and founded the Chulpadmendra Catwalk Studio to train young newcomers

She trained hundreds of models for runway, photoshoots, auditions, and international pageants.

She was known as a fierce mentor who believed in “not just learning to walk, but learning to command the runway”.

Many young models called graduating from her studio their “happiest moment.”

Chulpadmendra “Chula” Kumarapathirana: Many young models called graduating
from her studio their “happiest moment.” (L)/ Won the “Miss Tourism Model of the World Press Award” in Tanzania (R)

Chula was very fond of The Island newspaper and kept in touch with us on a regular basis.

Her last message to The Island was a ‘thank you’ note for the article ‘New benchmark in pageant industry’:

“Thank you, Ivan, for writing such a beautiful article about me. Your unwavering support, encouragement, and belief in me throughout my career mean more than words can express. I am truly grateful for your kindness and generosity.

“My heartfelt thanks also go to The Island newspaper for featuring the article. It is a great honour, and I sincerely appreciate the recognition and support.

“Thank you once again.”

In fact, just a couple weeks ago, she sent a photo of herself for our Glam Scene and that picture I publish today, as part of this story.

May she rest in peace. Our deepest condolences to her family, students, and all who loved her.

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