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How the world changed after the Iran War

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US President Donald Trump (left) and Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian sign deal to end Middle East War on June 17, 2026.

A deal to end the war on Iran has been negotiated and there is speculation whether the ceasefire would hold. The fact that Trump was looking for an off-ramp to end the war was obvious and, therefore, there is hope that he may not want to resume hostilities, though Netanyahu may want to undermine the peace process. According to leading intellectuals, like Prof. Jeffrey Sachs, Prof. John Mearsheimer and others, the war on Iran was a stupid unnecessary act of illegal aggression, instigated by Israel, with considerable political, strategic, hegemonic and prestige loss to the US. It was not just the futility of war that the world saw, but that the supremacy of the US that Trump wanted to impose on the world with his “Make America Great Again” project, has been proved to be a fallacy.

The US had not learnt the lesson that it had failed to achieve its objectives in every war that it had fought after the Second World War, in Vietnam, Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, Syria, etc. For instance, the Syrian government wants Russia to have bases in Syria, Iraq asked the US to withdraw its military from its land during the Iran war.

Trump was encouraged by the apparent success he had in Venezuela and was easily persuaded by Netanyahu to join in the war on Iran. They meant it to be a quick job, just like in Venezuela, decapitate the leadership and install a puppet regime. That didn’t happen. The murdered Ayatollah’s son took over and the people seem to have rallied round their rulers.

During the three-month-long war Iran managed not only to survive but also to inflict as much damage as it suffered, on Israel and US military assets in the region. Seventeen US bases in the UAE, Bahrain, Qatar, Kuwait, Iraq, etc.. were made uninhabitable. Forty two US aircraft were damaged or destroyed. There were attacks on civilian infrastructure, such as energy plants, desalination units, oil and gas fields, and airports, threatening that there would be more on a wider scale if Iranian infra-structure was attacked, which Trump had threatened to do. If this had happened countries like Qatar and Bahrain which depend 100% on desalination for their water requirements would have been made unliveable. These countries asked Trump to stop the war. One may ask whether it’s legal to attack countries not directly involved in the war. The UN charter on war regulations allow such attacks if the land of those countries are used by the aggressor to launch the war.

Most significant revelation of all these attacks by Iran was the fact that the US was not able to protect its allies in the Gulf nor its assets and the presence of US bases became a vulnerability and a danger to the host countries rather than  a security guarantee. The experts say that the US may never be able to rebuild these bases and return to them. Gulf countries may want to reconsider this matter. As Henry Kissinger famously said “to be America’s enemy is dangerous but to be its friend is fatal”.

Iran had the ingenuity and the capability to use the Strait of Hormuz as a weapon of immense power. By closing it, Iran could exert considerable pressure on Trump, domestically as well as globally, as fuel prices shot up, affecting the economy of most countries. All attempts to force Iran to open the Hormuz failed and finally it proved to be a decisive factor. And Hormuz has been proved to be a very strong weapon in Iran’s hands.

After finalising the deal, both countries claimed victory. The US says it has managed to get the Hormuz opened, but it was open before the war! The US claimed Iran will never be able to acquire nuclear weapon capability, but Iran has always maintained that it needs no nuclear weapons and it has entered into a non-nuclear agreement in 2015 with provision for IEA  monitoring. Iran, moreover, has emerged as a powerful, influential nation possessing considerable military capability. It has demonstrated its prowess in missile technology, unveiling several types of missiles. Though the US claimed that their strikes had decimated Iran’s missile capability, experts say 75% of it remains. Though Israel demanded that any agreement with Iran must guarantee restrictions on its missile manufacturing capacity no such conditions have been included in the MoU.

If one were to look carefully at the individual clauses of the MoU, one could see that Iran has won most of its demands, such as lifting of sanctions, but what it gives back in return are what already existed before the war, such as open Hormuz, no-nuclear weapons agreement. Thus the US has not won any of its goals in this war except inflict heavy economic damage on Iran, which the latter could cope with, as it has shown throughout history.

Another matter of significance is the change in the geopolitical configuration in the Middle East. The apparent invincibility of Israel has been considerably damaged. Both Iran and Hezbollah have been able to penetrate its much vaunted air defence system, the Iron Dome. Iran came close to striking Israel’s nuclear site. Israeli casualty figures are higher than in previous wars in southern Lebanon. Hezbollah had been written off after the last invasion by Israel but seems to have risen out of ashes.

The Arab countries, which have established links with Israel, may be reconsidering their strategy, and the Abraham Accord, involving Israel, the UAE and Bahrain, may be in danger of being revoked. The UAE, which is the most anti-Iran state in the Gulf, has engaged in high-level face-to-face talks with Iran to de-escalate regional tensions. Saudi Arabia, wary of US incapacity to manage its many interests, has turned towards China, Pakistan and Turkey. This is just the beginning, more similar changes could be expected in Iraq, Syria, Egypt, Lebanon and others. Arab solidarity may gain in strength.

This new geopolitical situation would facilitate the development plans that China with its Belt and Road Initiative was trying to implement in the region. The oil producing countries had a lot of money and small populations and they were spending this money on luxary living and investing the excess on weapons to defend themselves against Iran. China advised them to use the money to industrialize their countries and as for security, instead of buying weapons, to develop good relations with Iran. China was helping these countries to come together, Saudi Arabia was getting closer to Iran with Chinese mediation. Most of these countries had joined BRICS as well. In the aftermath of the war these countries may have realised they cannot rely on the US for their security as the US is more concerned about the security of Israel.

Israeli Prime Minister  Netanyahu says he wants to extend Israel borders and occupy 70% of Gaza and parts of Syria and Lebanon. However, Israel cannot do any of this without US support. Israel has become very unpopular among Americans. Trump, who adopted an extreme pro-Israel policy, recognising the Golan Heights as part of Israel and Jeruselam as Israel’s capital, and covertly helped Israel to commit genocide in Gaza, may have to change his attitude towards Israel, despite Jewish lobby. Else his party may suffer electoral setbacks.

The US allies the UK, the EU, Canada, Australia and Japan did not join the war saying it was not their war. This again is very significant as these countries had been active partners in most wars that the US fought in countries such as Iraq, Libya, Syria. The Canadian Prime Minister had been critical of Trump’s policies and had shown that he is aware of the emerging new world order and the need to adapt to it. These Western powers may not have wanted to displease the emerging power China with whom they would like to do business.

What about Palestine, the forgotten reason for all this trouble; internationally enforced solutions rather than prolonged, stalled negotiations. Proposals have emerged pushing for specific plans, including the potential integration of administrative governance in Gaza, but implementation has stalled due to disagreements regarding the disarmament of armed groups.

Israel will be accepted in the Chinese led new development model if it agrees to a Palestine state with 1967 borders. All this augurs well for the developing new world order.

by N. A. de S. Amaratunga

 



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The Digital Underground

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Illegal Foreign Exchange, Undiyal, Hawala and Money Laundering, A Four-Part Investigative Series

Forex Platforms, Cryptocurrency, AI and the New Financial Battlefield

THE INVISIBLE FINANCIAL EMPIRE – PART III

The Boyfriend Who Was Never Real

Priya, a 34-year-old professional in Colombo, met “David” on LinkedIn. He claimed to work in fintech in Singapore. For six weeks they exchanged messages daily, about work, about life, about a recent trip he had taken to the Maldives. Eventually, the conversation turned, gently and naturally, to money.

“I’ve been trading on this platform, let me show you,” he said, sharing a screenshot of a sleek trading dashboard showing consistent, impressive returns.

Priya invested a small amount first, $500. Within days, her dashboard showed it had grown to $650. She withdrew $100 successfully, just to test it. It worked. Encouraged, she invested more. Then more. Over two months, she transferred a total of $42,000 into the platform.

When she tried to withdraw her full balance, the platform demanded a “regulatory release fee” of $8,000 before funds could be unlocked. She paid it. Then another fee appeared. Then the platform stopped responding altogether. “David” vanished. The trading dashboard, the customer support chat, the entire brokerage, all of it had never been real.

This is what investigators now call “pig butchering”, and, in 2026, the most disturbing development is not the scam itself, which has existed for years, but what now powers it: artificial intelligence has industrialised the entire operation.

From Manual Fraud to Machine-Generated Deception

For most of the past decade, romance-and-investment scams, like the one that targeted Priya, required enormous manual labour. Scam operations, many of them staffed by trafficked workers held against their will in compounds across Myanmar, Cambodia, and Laos, needed real humans to build relationships with victims over weeks, manage fake trading platforms, and respond convincingly to questions.

That labour-intensive model has now been substantially automated. According to financial-crime researchers tracking this shift through 2026, threat actors are standing up entire AI-generated “brokerage” experiences end-to-end, complete with KYC onboarding, branded customer-service chat, animated portfolio dashboards, and falsified live market data feeds, and operating them at industrial scale against multiple victims simultaneously. Generative-AI relationship managers now front the WhatsApp and Telegram conversations that once required real human scammers. AI-cloned regulator letters are generated on demand to justify the fake “release fees” that drain victims a final time before the platform disappears.

What has changed is not the deception itself, it is the production economics. The cost of running a credible synthetic brokerage against one additional victim has collapsed, meaning a single criminal network can now run hundreds of “Davids” simultaneously, each one indistinguishable from a genuine fintech professional until it is too late. (Figure 01)

Sri Lanka: From Victim Pool to Operating Base

Sri Lanka’s relationship to this global scam economy has shifted in an alarming direction over the past two years. The country is no longer only a source of victims, it has become an operating base for the criminal networks themselves.

In April, 2026, Sri Lankan police raided a five-star hotel property, in Ambakandavila, and arrested 150 individuals, including 133 Chinese nationals, 13 Vietnamese nationals, and one Malaysian national, allegedly running a cyber fraud centre with links to international criminal syndicates, based in Myanmar and Cambodia. Investigators say the operation followed a now-familiar regional pattern: recruiters advertise “online marketing” or “data entry” jobs on social media to lure foreign workers to Sri Lanka, confiscate their passports on arrival, and force them to operate scam campaigns under threat.

The Central Bank of Sri Lanka has formally flagged pig-butchering scams as a “developing threat,” warning that foreign scam networks are increasingly targeting overseas nationals through scam farms operating from Sri Lankan soil. A 2026 United Nations report estimated that at least 300,000 people have been trafficked into scam centres across Southeast Asia.

This is not an abstract international problem. It is unfolding in hotels and rented properties across the country, exploiting the same infrastructure, high-speed internet, affordable accommodation, accessible tourist visas, that Sri Lanka has built to attract legitimate digital businesses and tourists.

Where the Money Actually Goes: The Stablecoin Pipeline

Behind every successful pig-butchering scam sits a laundering pipeline that has been transformed almost as dramatically as the scams themselves, and the transformation has a single dominant feature: stablecoins.

According to the Financial Action Task Force’s March 2026, report, drawing on analysis from blockchain intelligence firms Chainalysis and TRM Labs, stablecoins accounted for 84% of the USD 154 billion in illicit virtual asset transaction volume recorded in 2025, the highest share ever observed, and a dramatic jump from just 15% only a few years earlier. TRM Labs separately found that illicit entities received USD 141 billion in stablecoins, in 2025 alone, the highest level observed in five years. (See Table 01)

The scale of state-level abuse is striking. A Russian sanctions-evasion network built around the ruble-pegged stablecoin A7A5 processed more than USD 72 billion in total volume in 2025.

Fighting Fire with Fire: AI on the Defensive Side

The same artificial intelligence reshaping financial crime is also, out of necessity, reshaping the defence against it. Legacy anti-money laundering systems, built on static, rule-based thresholds, have proven badly outmatched by AI-generated fraud operating at machine speed. Research cited by compliance technology analysts suggests that between 90% and 95% of alerts generated by legacy AML systems are false positives, consuming enormous investigator time while genuinely suspicious activity slips through.

This is not a frictionless transition. AI models are notoriously difficult to explain to regulators and examiners in the way traditional rule-based systems are. The practical compromise emerging across the industry is a hybrid model: AI handles the initial scoring and prioritisation of risk, while documented rule-based logic still governs the final decision that must be defensible to a regulator.

The Regulatory Response: Catching Up to the Digital Frontier

Regulators worldwide have begun moving to close the most dangerous gaps exposed by this digital transformation of financial crime. (See Table 02)

What Comes Next

We have now traced this investigation from the centuries-old mechanics of Hawala and Undiyal, through the three-stage architecture that turns criminal proceeds into apparently legitimate wealth, to the AI-generated frontier of digital financial crime reshaping all of it at machine speed.

In our concluding instalment, Part IV: “Sri Lanka at the Crossroads: Economic Consequences, Organised Crime and the Road Ahead”, we bring this series home. We examine precisely what all of this costs Sri Lanka in hard economic terms: lost remittances, exchange rate pressure, tax revenue forgone, and the 2026 FATF evaluation that will determine whether the country’s institutions can demonstrate, with evidence rather than legislation alone, that they are equal to this challenge. We close with a practical policy roadmap.

(The writer, a senior Chartered Accountant and professional banker, is Professor at SLIIT, Malabe.
Views expressed in this article are personal.)

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‘There are no private universities in Sri Lanka’ – some considerations for higher education reform

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Academics involved in education policy like to say that there is no such thing as a private university in Sri Lanka. The only ‘universities’ in the country are state universities; anything else offering degrees is a private higher education institution (HEI). This position is technically accurate. Yet, in the discourse and imagination of the public, private universities are very real – people teach in them, students register in them, families pay fees, and such degree holders enter job markets in Sri Lanka and outside.

For decades, activists concerned for public higher education have ignored or resisted looking at private HEIs, as if such scrutiny would taint them. Others have worked in both types of institutions, carrying practices from each to the other. The apex body governing state universities, the UGC, has, meanwhile, ignored the concept of conflict of interest and appointed individuals in private higher education in committees and leadership positions. It is unsurprising then that some of the ideologies informing private higher education appear in reform agendas in the state sector.

This is a good time then to consider the varying types of private HEIs around us, and to take a look at some of the issues within them in the hope that higher education reform agendas will include private, as well as state higher education.

What is a ‘private university’?

First, some clarifications. In the public imaginary, a ‘private university’ is typically an institution that provides a foreign or local degree for which the student makes a payment. But this broad classification encompasses a host of diverse institutions and types of degrees which I detail below.

The Non-State Higher Education Division (NSHE) of the Ministry of Education has recognised 295 degrees by 32 institutions. Most of these are private companies and include a handful of established, well-known private HEIs that are ‘university like’. The degrees are local degrees conferred by the institutions accredited by the NSHE Division. While private HEIs conferring local degrees must be accredited by the NSHE Division, there appears to be no legal consequence for not doing so. In addition, there are several permutations of the private degree that miss the net of this Division and the Standing Committee on Accreditation and Quality Assurance (SCAQA) that assists this Division.

For one, degrees conferred by foreign universities offered, via these same private HEIs, are not vetted by the NSHE Division. Secondly, there is a growing plethora of private HEIs which have either no physical presence locally or only a dubious presence. The University Grants Commission has notified the public, through their website, that foreign universities listed in the Commonwealth Universities Yearbook and the World Higher Education Database are recognised, but refrained from giving any other details – which degrees? Offered by what modes? These details are not known. Some of the foreign universities in the lists may be legitimate entities in their own land but the degrees conferred locally, in their name, may not adhere to curriculum or teaching specifications of the NSHE Division or the UGC.

Another troubling phenomenon is the ‘top up degree’, which appears to work on the same principle as that of a pre-paid mobile connection: if I have a Diploma or an HND of a sort, I am eligible to complete a course of study which provides me with a degree, usually from a foreign university. The idea that someone who does not initially qualify for a degree programme should be able to work their way towards one is a progressive notion. This is the concept that open and distance learning (ODL) was based on initially, but which is now sadly exploited. ODL models are expected to provide opportunity for learning for those who may be excluded from traditional learning institutions. In Sri Lanka, however, we have seen ODL become a marketplace offering easy to obtain, for-fee qualifications by institutions with little commitment to superior teaching and learning.

Finally, a perusal of the many types of private HEIs and their varied degrees bring to mind another question – how should the private degrees, provided by state institutions (that are not educational institutions), be regulated? Who should do so?

All of these create a host of problems for the public – for hopeful students and parents and trusting employers. For the higher education sector, recruitment of academic staff, too, has become difficult due to this plethora of ambiguous higher education qualifications, as I discussed in a previous Kuppi article (‘Recruiting academics to state universities’).

Some issues in private HEIs – a bellwether for change in state universities

In this second part of this article, I will discuss some aspects of work in private HEIs – albeit the more established institutions – given that such issues may appear in reform agendas in future.

Across state universities, all permanent staff of a specific category are paid according to the same criteria. The picture is not so clear when it comes to private HEIs since they are different entities legally, typically companies. Private HEIs have salary scales and financial incentives that are different to each other. The more established private HEIs reportedly have attractive renumeration packages, possibly a reason for academics of state universities migrating eagerly to such institutions during sabbatical years and on retirement. This may not of course be the case with other less established, or improperly registered HEIs of which we know little. Academic staff of these more accepted private HEIs seem to value the high financial remuneration they receive (in comparison to state universities) as something that makes their work rewarding.

Attractive remuneration is important to sustain the good life and is at times seen as the institution’s way of encouraging good work. Yet, this has implications for the future of the institution: to continue to deliver on promised financial packages, institutions must continue to have large profit margins. One strategy has been to enroll multiple cohorts of students per year, even up to three or four intakes per year. This can result in exploitative work conditions, since staff must cater to all these cohorts in that same year. If there is inadequate staff, employees are further burdened. On the other hand, if there is a sudden drop in enrolments (degrees can go out of fashion) unexpected layoffs occur. Similar to other sectors that employ short-term contract staff – including state universities – in private HEIs, too, individual teachers, who are on short term contracts that need regular renewal, can feel pressured to work under difficult or exploitative conditions.

At the same time, even in the more established private HEIs, work norms differ from those of state universities in that they include promotional work that keeps the institution’s name in the eye of the public. The Marketing (or similarly named) unit comes up in conversations as one of the most important departments. It appears to weigh in on decision-making related to the number of staff, the amount of re-sits per exams, and other pedagogically important matters. This is a worrying example of how financial rationales interfere with pedagogically or academically sound processes, resulting in problematic results in the classroom. On the plus side, junior colleagues, who had experience in both state and private HEIs, also felt that they faced less harassment in private HEIs – primarily due to the private HEIs ability to take swift action in reported cases of harassment. This is a real indictment on state institutions and their reluctance to address chronic issues of harassment in our universities.

Yet, while we hear much about problems in state universities, we hardly hear of problems that staff in private HEIs face. One rationale for a lack of public expressions by staff is that expressions of discontent might lead to trouble given the importance of reputation for private HEIs. The worry about reputational damage is a growing concern in state universities, too, as evidenced by social media policies and internal conversations on reputational damage, consequent to negative publicity. Institutional worries of reputational damage are harmful in the long run since these impact not only freedom of expression by student and staff, but also research that is possible in and about the education sector.

Some thoughts at the end…


A close look at the private higher education sector is important given its strong presence in the country. Impending reform needs to regulate this diverse array of higher education offerings in the private sector, as well as the state institutions that offer privately-funded options of higher education (a topic for a separate Kuppi on its own). It is time we carefully considered how to build a whole system of higher education out of this broken mess.

Kaushalya Perera is a senior lecturer at the University of Colombo.

Kuppi is a politics and pedagogy happening on the margins of the lecture hall that parodies, subverts, and simultaneously reaffirms social hierarchies.

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Ready for solo spotlight

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Nish Peiris: Excited about future plans

Singer Nish Peiris is set to take the next big step in her music journey.

The talented vocalist, who has been seen and heard in the scene here for a short while, and was also featured with the now-defunct band, Inner Vision, has announced that she will be fully committing to her solo career, after completing her degree this year.

“I’m finishing my degree this year, and after that I’ll be fully committing to my solo music career,” Nish told The Island.

“I’ve already got a few tours lined up for next year, so I’m really excited for what’s ahead.”

Fans, no doubt, will remember Nish for her smooth voice and stage presence, and the good news is that she is now ready to chart her own path and bring new music to audiences at home and abroad.

With tours already planned for 2027, the year 2026 promises to be an exciting year for the young artiste as she steps into the spotlight on her own.

We wish Nish every success in this new chapter!

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