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How long will power cuts be?

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by Eng. Parakrama Jayasinghe

This is the question in everybody’s mind these days. Anything up to 10 hours of blackouts have been predicted by the Ceylon Electricity Board (CEB) trade unions. But Minister of Power and Energy, Kanchana Wijesekera, has been quick to contest this prediction while being careful not to say that there will be no power cuts. His offer for guaranteeing uninterrupted power, 24/7, is a massive increase in consumer tariff, coming on top of the recent 75% hike in August 2022. Now, it is reliably understood to be as high as 86% increase immediately. Obviously, these percentages will be calculated on the already punitive tariff levels. It remains to be seen whether saner counsel will prevail and pros and cons of accepting limited power cuts, as against imposing such a hike on the hapless consumers, will be weighed carefully. Even if rupee income is generated to cover the estimated cost, where will the dollars come from to import the coal and oil?

In this context, it is also pertinent to note that the calculations offered in support of the proposed increase in tariff, purportedly to dig the CEB out of the financial hole that it has dug for itself over the years, needs to be evaluated carefully.

Predictions from the CEB Generation Requirements for 2023 are as follows:

Expected energy forecast for 2022 excluding planned power interruptions – 16,370 GWh

Estimated unserved energy due to planned power interruptions for 2022 – 785 GWh

Expected total energy forecast including planned power interruptions in 2022 – 17,155 GWh

Accordingly, assuming 1% annual energy growth, annual energy forecast for year 2023 is calculated to be 17,326 GWh and the same was considered for this study.

This assumption leads to an estimated cost of Rs 900 billion for the year 2023, and hence the call for the 86% escalation of the consumer tariff.

In contrast, the (Public Utilities Commission of Sri Lanka (PUCSL) has recommended the reality of downturn in demand during the year 2021 and 2022, and the real but inevitable power cuts of at least the current duration. Accordingly, its prediction of demand is as follows:

 

This, when extended, leads to an annual demand of 13,870 GWh. It is their assessment that the recent hike in tariff is more than adequate to cover this cost.

Which estimate is more logical?

The charts below which appeared in the media few weeks back are most revealing. (See Table 2)

How logical is the projection of a significant increase in demand under the present depressed state of the economy? Furthermore, the cost of coal-based generation quoted as Rs 47.91 per unit is highly questionable when the CEB’s own report on generation requirement for year 2023, cites the price of coal as Rs 142 kg. This means a cost of coal alone per unit to Rs 54.00. Thus, the true cost of generation is more likely to be in the order of Rs. 70.00 per unit, way above any type of renewable energy. But the real danger is in the continued use of oil for power generation.

Such assumptions make one wonder if these planners are living in Sri Lanka or in some mythical land. This is not surprising considering the kind of assumptions made in preparing their latest long-term generation plan. This document submitted for review to the PUCSL in July, is based on the dollar parity and other financial parameters prevailing in December 2021. Obviously, the financial crisis that hit Sri Lanka in March 2022 has escaped their attention.

Even more surprising is the assumption that such parity rates will not change over the 20-year time horizon of the plan, as well as the assumption that the world market prices of all fossil fuels oil, gas and coal will be static, proudly displayed in graphical format in the LTEGP. So, this kind of predictions of demand to justify a massive increase in tariff is not surprising.

On the other hand, the PUCSL has done its own calculations to show that with the last tariff increase and a saner, but also more optimistic demand forecast would enable the CEB to break even. The coal power plant will have to operate at lower capacity, due to lack of dollars to import the coal and difficulties in unloading the required number of ships before the onset of the monsoons, and the less said about the Minister’s plan to unload this ships in Trincomalee and to truck them to Norochcholai, the better!

Thus, the assumption of none or reduced hours of power cuts is far removed from reality. It was most encouraging to note that many days during the months of June to October, in 2022, hardly any oil-based generation was used. One would have expected this to signal an oil free electricity generation in the coming year, even if it meant some hardships caused by longer power cuts. Consumers would have made this sacrifice readily if that had been offered as an alternative to the need for huge increases in tariff as well as a coherent plan for accelerated addition of renewable energy sources, which, once installed, does not require any dollars, and firm prices will be guaranteed for the whole lifetime of the project. The impact of price volatility coupled with a highly depreciated rupee is now felt by the entire country highlighting the lack of vision of the planners.

Of course, in contrast there are attempts already underway to bridge the generation deficit using Emergency Power running on oil at enormous cost. This option which also requires dollars to import the oil, in addition to rupees to pay the generation companies, poses an even greater danger of reactivating the dreaded fuel queues an experience best forgotten. The gain made by the introduction of the QR system will be lost.

However, a senior Engineer of the CEB publicly displayed the following cost of generation figures. (See Table 3)

In fact, the true cost of electricity, in 2022, was much higher, if the actual cost of coal is factored in. The increase in cost is obviously due to the overdependence on imported fossil fuels on which we have absolutely no control. But the writing has been on the wall for many years and now the CEB engineers, too, have accepted the reality. But now it is proposed to accept a cost of generation of some Rs 48.00 kWh, for the recovery of which another massive tariff hike is to be imposed. If this is the only solution that can be provided by those in authority, why do we need a Minister of Power and thousands of engineers at the CEB?

The advent of the unavoidable crisis may get pushed back a little with the recent fresh onset of rainy weather, but it would certainly be a short-lived relief. It will be best even if such limited window of opportunity is made use for pragmatic and honest approach to mitigate the crisis, rather than just playing with numbers and creating grave social disharmony. There are many questions being raised as to the underlying motivation for this move, totally against the provisions of the Electricity Act. What will happen if such a tariff hike is allowed and the demand is indeed more realistically of the order of 14,000 GWh or less? Will the CEB reimburse the additional levy imposed on the consumers?

What are the mitigatory measures being adopted to alleviate the same problem that would recur next year too? What is more logical, given the severe shortage of FOREX? Do we waste the scarce and most likely borrowed dollars just to buy the fuel, the need for which will continue year after year, or accept the inevitable hardships and spend such dollars to rapidly expand the renewable energy generation capacity which does not have such a dollar consuming recurrent cost? Perhaps, this is too abstract a proposition for the energy sector professionals to fathom. As it stands, there are no tangible measures being taken targeting the year 2024 even other than various plans and projections, which history has shown to be just so much applesauce. The predictions made in early 2022 of this impending crisis was large ignored. https://www.ft.lk/columns/Sri-Lankan-electricity-sector-The-headless-chicken/4-730564

“May the Minister have the courage to declare that Sri Lanka would no longer operate any oil-based power plants, except perhaps those which can operate on furnace oil and naphtha, produced by our own refinery, for which the supply of crude oil must be treated as a priority for many reasons.”

So, the helpless consumers will conclude that their problems will have to be overcome by themselves and evidence shows that neither the CEB or the Ministry has any viable sustainable plan taking into account the unavoidable ground realities.

Fortunately, such options are now emerging, commencing from the very basic intervention of the consumers themselves individually by conservation of energy and more vigilance in the use of the energy consuming equipment. This will provide immediate monetary benefits to the consumers as well as provide a modicum of relief to those less able to engage in such moves by reducing the over all cost of generation of the CEB and hopefully averting any more ad-hoc tariff increases.

The word DSM-demand Side Management is bandied around often by the authorities, but very little seems to be done to adopt same. It is said that Negawatts are much cheaper than Megawatts. We, the consumers, can take up the challenge ourselves to help ourselves and well as the country. The potential saving has been estimated to be up to 20% without much effort or cost.

The next option available and now proven technically and financially feasible is to minimize the dependence on the national grid for the individual consumer’s electricity needs. Just as an indicator, even before the dreaded 86% tariff increase, the average cost to a consumer above 180 units a month was as follows: (See Table 4 and Figure 2)

The CEB is bound to come up with a myriad of technical reasons why this is not possible! But isn’t it its responsibility to resolve such barriers in the interest of the country without being a naysayer forever?

These options and the financial impacts will be described in detail in the next article with numbers to illustrate the immediate impact. Meanwhile, switch off that extra light and fan and save a dollar for the beleaguered Sri Lanka.



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Combining local resources,traditional knowledge and science to build a food-secure Sri Lanka

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World Food Day 2026: Innovating today for a better food future

by Dr. Kaushalya Wijayasekara

What will be on the Sri Lankan dinner table ten years from now? Will our children be able to get nutritious food at a price their families can afford? Will farmers be able to grow enough despite changing weather and rising costs? And how much of the food we produce will actually reach the consumer, instead of being lost or wasted along the way?

These questions can’t wait. A farmer faces unpredictable weather. A family faces rising food costs. Fruit goes unsold after a good harvest. Some children do not get enough nutrition. The future of food is tied to the future of Sri Lanka itself.

World Food Day 2026 is a chance to look beyond the immediate problems and ask whether we can build a food system that feeds our people well, gives farmers better opportunities, protects the environment and makes better use of what we already have. The answer can be yes, but we will have to think differently.

We are not starting from zero. Sri Lanka has diverse crops, fisheries, traditional food knowledge, indigenous varieties, research institutions, universities and a young generation able to create new solutions. What we need is to bring these together and act. Producing more will not secure our food future on its own. It will depend on how intelligently we produce, process, preserve, distribute and consume food.

Making more of what we already have

Innovation does not always mean inventing something new. Often it means finding better uses for the resources we have.

Sri Lanka grows traditional rice varieties, kurakkan, green gram, cowpea, jackfruit, breadfruit, cassava, sweet potato, coconut and palmyrah. All of them have great potential for modern, nutritious, value-added foods. Jackfruit and breadfruit can be made into flour and other convenient products. Traditional rice varieties can go into new foods that suit changing consumer needs. Palmyrah, with its strong cultural heritage, can create new income through better processing, packaging, quality assurance and market development.

The aim is to connect our traditional food knowledge with modern consumer needs and technology, while keeping our food heritage.

Stop wasting the food we produce

Reducing food loss and waste should be a major priority. Seasonal fruits such as mango, banana, papaya and pineapple can be lost in large quantities when production exceeds demand or when storage, transport and processing facilities are inadequate. With suitable technology, these fruits can become dried products, pulps, powders, beverages and other shelf-stable foods.

Agricultural and fisheries by-products are resources too. They could be turned into food ingredients, animal feed, bio-based products and other useful materials, which would move us toward a more circular food economy.

Technology alone is not enough. We need stronger local processing facilities, cold storage, efficient transport, collection centres and market information systems, especially close to where food is produced. Cutting food loss raises the value of what our farmers and fishers already produce.

Nutrition and food safety come first

Food security means more than having enough food. People also need food that is safe and nutritious.

Sri Lanka can develop affordable, nutritious foods from local pulses, grains, vegetables, fruits and fish. Children and other vulnerable groups should get particular attention. Schoolchildren in particular deserve a focus: safe, nutritious, locally sourced products for school feeding programs would support child nutrition, local farmers and domestic food industries at the same time.

Food safety must stay at the centre of food innovation. Good hygiene, quality control, laboratory testing, traceability and appropriate food safety systems are what make new products safe as well as attractive and nutritious.

A food system that can cope with climate change

Climate change is already affecting agricultural production, water availability, crop yields and food prices. We need food systems that can handle changing conditions. That means climate-resilient crops, efficient water use, soil and water conservation, better storage and resource-efficient food processing.

Traditional knowledge matters here. Generations of Sri Lankan farmers have developed practices suited to local climates and ecosystems. Combining that experience with modern science can give us solutions that fit local conditions and are sustainable. Technology alone will not build the future of food. Science, experience and local knowledge together can.

Give young people a bigger role

Sri Lanka’s universities have an important part to play in shaping our food future. Young people should be encouraged to identify real problems in the food system and work on practical solutions in areas such as food waste, sustainable packaging, nutrition, food safety, modernising traditional foods and digital technologies.

A good research project should not always end as a research paper. Where appropriate, research should be supported to move on to products, technologies, enterprises and community solutions. That needs stronger partnerships between universities and industry, along with mentoring, research funding, business support and market connections. If young researchers and entrepreneurs can turn their ideas into viable food innovations, both consumers and producers will benefit.

A pathway designed for Sri Lanka

We do not need to copy food-system models from other countries. We can build a pathway that suits our own resources, culture and needs. It would bring together local resources, traditional knowledge, scientific research, appropriate technology and entrepreneurship, with farmers, fishers, universities, research institutions, food industries, entrepreneurs and policymakers working side by side.

The goal goes beyond selling raw materials. We need to create more value, reduce waste, improve nutrition, generate jobs and strengthen rural livelihoods. This matters especially for small and medium-scale food enterprises, which can drive local economic development when they get the right technical, financial and market support.

The choices we make today

The food future will not create itself. It will be shaped by what we grow, what we research, what we process, what we consume and what we choose not to waste.

So, the question for World Food Day 2026 is this: what can we do today so that every Sri Lankan has safe, nutritious, affordable and sustainable food tomorrow?

The answers are already around us, in our farms, fisheries, food businesses, universities, laboratories and communities. We have the resources, the traditional knowledge, the scientific expertise and talented young people. What we need now is to connect them and act.

A better food future begins with the choices we make today.

Dr. Kaushalya Wijayasekara

Senior Lecturer, Department of Biosystems Technology, Faculty of Technology, University of Ruhuna

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20th Anniversary of Digampathana blast – the day Sri Lanka Navy cried

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Aftermath of the terror attack

By Admiral Ravindra C Wijegunaratne
WV, RWP and Bar, RSP, VSV, USP, NI (M) (Pakistan), ndc, psn, Bsc
(Hons) (War Studies) (Karachi) MPhil (Madras)
Former Navy Commander and Former Chief of Defence Staff
Former Chairman, Trincomalee Petroleum Terminals Ltd
Former Managing Director Ceylon Petroleum Corporation
Former High Commissioner to Pakistan

The Digampathana suicide truck attack on 16th October 2006 remains the deadliest single strike in Sri Lanka Navy history, leaving scars that time cannot erase.

It was a seemingly ordinary Monday morning on 16 October 2006, but the calm of that day would soon be shattered in a way none of us could have imagined. As the Commandant of the Naval and Maritime Academy and Flag Officer Commanding Naval Fleet at Trincomalee, I was aware that a number of my cadets were travelling that morning, part of a convoy of fifteen buses carrying naval personnel from Trincomalee, Colombo, and other bases, heading toward Dambulla to rendezvous with another group. The convoy also included trucks and escort vehicles, a routine movement planned and coordinated with the army to ensure the roads were clear. The morning started quietly. Some personnel greeted friends, handed over their weapons, or strolled to a nearby tea shop. It all seemed so ordinary—too ordinary for what would come next.

Sri Lanka Navy sunk LTTE Ships carrying arms, ammunition and warlike materials thousand miles away from Sri Lanka in Indian Ocean in September and October 2007.

By late morning, both convoys had reached the small ground at Digampathana, near the Sigiriya junction, and personnel mingled briefly, unaware that a carefully orchestrated act of terror was waiting. Then, suddenly, an empty half-truck veered directly into the convoy. It exploded with a ferocity I can still recall as if it were yesterday. Nuts, bolts, and high explosives tore through the air. Pandemonium erupted instantly. I later learned that 107 of our naval personnel were killed on the spot and another 153 critically injured. The scene was indescribable—bodies scattered, vehicles mangled, personal effects strewn across the ground. I remember later hearing that the head of the suicide bomber was recovered more than 100 meters away from the blast, a grim testament to the sheer force of the explosion.

I was in my office at the Naval and Maritime Academy when my mobile phone rang. A young midshipman from the 21st intake called, his voice trembling: “Sir, there was a huge explosion at the convoy point! Many are dead … my batch mate Wijesundara is among them.” I immediately jumped into my jeep with my escort Chief Petty Officer and driver and rushed to Digampathana, relying on every ounce of my driving skill to reach the scene. The journey, which usually took little more than an hour, felt endless that day, each passing mile weighed down by dread.

When I arrived, I was confronted with a sight that no training can prepare you for. The injured were being rushed to Dambulla Hospital, where doctors and nurses worked tirelessly, improvising in ways that saved lives despite the overwhelming chaos. I went back to the site after visiting the hospital. The remains of our naval personnel were scattered across the ground, and someone had begun collecting weapons and protective gear. I immediately contacted Surgeon Rear Admiral Nico Jayasekara and received his instructions: collect all body parts in separate bags and transport them to the Trincomalee Naval Hospital mortuary. This gruesome work had to be done with care and dignity, and it filled the icebox in my vehicle. Through DNA testing initiated by Rear Admiral Nico, we were able to identify every naval personnel lost that day, bringing some closure to grieving families.

The Navy Commander at the time, Vice Admiral Wasantha Karannagoda, was devastated. I had worked closely with him and knew how deeply he cared for his men. He ensured that the fallen were honoured with full ceremonial naval funerals at Welisara Naval Base, attended by families and comrades. Sixty-seven funerals were conducted in a single day—a number that still haunts me.

The Digampathana attack remains the largest single loss of naval life in our history. It was a day of sorrow, but also a day that reinforced our resolve. The tragedy galvanized the Navy to target the LTTE Sea Tiger wing with renewed determination and reshaped our maritime operations forever. Every time I think of that day, I remember not just the lives lost, but the courage, professionalism, and dedication of those who survived, those who treated the injured, and those who ensured the fallen were honored properly. May the souls of our naval hero’s rest in peace, their sacrifice guiding us and inspiring generations of naval personnel to come.

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‘Murder at Whitby Abbey’

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Tales of Mystery and Suspense – 24

I was intrigued by the title of a book I found in a book drop at the condominium of a friend, Murder at Whitby Abbey, and I brought it home with me though I will not be able to return it in the near future. It was described on the cover page as ‘a standout in the crowded medieval mystery field’, though I fear I do not know of other books in this field, apart from the Cadfael series, which I have dealt with earlier.

The book, by Cassandra Clark, is set during the reign of Richard II and has as a backdrop his precarious position, which led to his being replaced, and murdered, by his cousin Henry, who reigned as Henry IV. It is a gloomy book, the action taking place in the twelve days of Christmas leading up to the Epiphany. And the gloom is pervasive, even though this is supposed to be a time of festivity, with mummers performing, and many of those in the guest house where the heroine stays going to town to enjoy themselves, with much drinking and much music, which also fills the guesthouse.

The heroine Hildegarde is a nun, sent to try to acquire a relic being sold by Whitby Abbey, though this was also a penance set by the Abbot of the monastery that governed her abbess because she had had sex with a man. Soon after she and her companions reach the Abbey set high on a cliff, she finds that there are other bidders, and soon suspects that the hierarchy, not perhaps the Abbot who seems a weakling, but his rapacious bursar, is determined to make money, and not above creating false relics to sell to several aspirants.

After Hildegarde and her Cistercian companions – Whitby is a Benedictine Foundation – two monks, Gregory and Egbert, and a young priest Mark, reach the abbey, they find that Aelwyn, a monk they had met on their way to the guesthouse had died. This was in the apple store, and they realize, when they find the surplices of novices stuffed into the air vents, that he had been left to suffocate in the overwhelming scent of apples.

Clark

The Cistercians are asked to look into the death, perhaps because they are likely to get no cooperation from the Abbey folk, but perhaps because those in charge are keen to know what happened. And the infirmarer, an old monk, suggests Hildegarde talk to a man called Edred who worked for the bursar, and had been a friend of Aelwyn’s. But Edred too is killed, before he can keep an appointment he had made with Hildegarde, drowned in a pool near the farmhouse of the Abbey.

Meanwhile tensions arise between the fisherfolk and the abbey for the bursar wants to charge them for using the beach that technically belongs to the abbey to dry their fish and their nets. This leads to physical battles, when the guards used by the abbey, under the command it seems of the bursar whose determination to make money is not resisted by the abbot and the prior, try to storm the area where the fishermen live.

Hildegard finds out more about what had happened through two youngsters, one of whom Torold is the son of Aelwyn by a woman who worked as a prostitute for a cartel, and with whom Mark fell in love. The other works on the farm and had seen Edred meet someone near the pool, after which that someone left the place by himself. And the boy had also found in the pool a sort of dagger with the seal of the abbey.

He and his dog, and Torold who follows her, rescue Hildegarde from a man at arms who has waylaid her and tries to rape her earlier. Escaping into the abbey she was nearly been raped then by the bursar, but she managed to escape, in the process setting fire to him and the muniments room, which led, when he was rescued, to the discovery of a box with the money he said had been stolen, blame being cast on both Aelwyn and Edred.

Matters come to a head when the fisherfolk try to storm the abbey, being resisted by the men at arms stationed on the towers. But then Hildegarde realizes that behind the murders was the bursar’s clerk, whom she pursued to the cathedral. There is great drama then as she escapes from him when he tries to kill her, and then from the man at arms who had tried to both rape and kill her, but they both fall from the scaffolding she had climbed, the latter coming from a tower where he had been stationed.

Both of them think they run the rapacity of the abbey, the latter claiming to work for the nobles opposed to Richard, who is presented throughout the book as devoted to his subjects, not to power or money. But though the villains die, the bursar continues, having got over the hysteria the fire had caused and his acknowledgment then of guilt – and though the abbot and the prior seem less vicious, whether they will be able to assert themselves is questionable.

Before the climax, when the others in the guesthouse were leaving, Hildegarde found that two of them were in possession of the relic, for which they seem to have paid well. Hildegarde herself had made a derisory offer, but before she leaves the abbot gives her the relic, perhaps in gratitude for what she and her fellow Cistercians had discovered, the abbey having made as much money as it needed and more from the gullible other buyers.

Mark’s inamorata is saved from the stews because she moves in with Edred’s widow whom the bursar had thrown out of the rooms he occupied when her husband was found dead. Hildegarde had paid for lodgings, in a house run by the man who ran the brothels, but he had a kindly side and was going to finance them to make nets for the fishermen.

So, the Cistercians set off for their home as swiftly as they can to get there on the day of the Epiphany, having stopped en route to pray for King Richard whose birthday it was.

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