Hemin, hemin (slowly, slowly)

The dawn of the New Year 2025 last week, with a new president and a new government enjoying what is being called a “super majority” in parliament raises the inevitable question of whether the country can be made to take a new direction ensuring the promised better life for all its people.

“System change” has been the buzzword since the aragalaya in 2022 compelled first the resignation of then Prime Minister Mahinda Rajapaksa followed by that of his brother, President Gotabaya Rajapaksa who fled the country and tendered his resignation from Singapore. The unlikely ascension of Ranil Wickremesinghe, who had lost his own parliamentary seat in the 2020 general election having led the United National Party to a zero elected seat debacle, followed two years later.

The country was in a shambles with motorists lining up in miles long fuel queues with those seeking cooking gas for their kitchens faring little better. Everything that could go wrong had gone wrong but GR, thankfully, did not order the military and the police to shoot at the rioters at his gates. Wickremesinghe who had entered parliament after much foot dragging via the single National List place won by the UNP was elected to serve the balance Gotabaya Rajapaksa presidential term by the Sri Lanka Podu Jana Peramuna (SLPP), the Rajapaksa party.

He to his credit he was able to restore a semblance of normalcy thanks to negotiating a demanding IMF program and the generosity of India. But this was achieved at great cost to ordinary people burdened with a near unbearable cost of living necessitated by IMF insistence that the government reaches prescribed revenue targets and achieve debt sustainability.

An all pervading Value Added Tax (VAT) rising from eight percent in 2021 to 12 percent in May 2023 and 15% in September that year before being hiked to 18% last year took its obvious toll together with high personal income taxes that sent the middle class reeling.

Although NPP/JVP leader Anura Kumara Dissanayake had just three seats in the last parliament, he comfortably led the field at the last presidential election where none of the front-runners were able to clear the barrier of 50 percent of the total poll forcing a count of preference votes.

But that made little difference with AKD with 42.31 percent well ahead of Sajith Premadasa (32.16%) with Ranil Wickremesinghe trailing with 17.27%. Namal Rajapaksa was a pathetic also ran. But the general election which followed weeks later saw a surge for the winning side with the NPP/JVP winning 159 seats in the 225-member legislature with 61.56% of the national vote, up from the 3.84% scored at the previous parliamentary election.

Wickremesinghe hoped for a mandate on the strength of his long experience and post-aragalaya success but ran as an independent candidate with the backing of his impotent UNP and fragments of the SLPP he was able to win over as president. But the SLPP he had antagonized wanted to run its own candidate and refused to back him, choosing Namal Rajapaksa, the heir apparent of the Rajapaksa dynasty, who threw his hat into the ring after billionaire businessman Dhammika Perera saw the light as E-Day approached. Namal wisely saw the coming colour and chose not to seek election but gain entry to parliament through the SLPP National List. He clearly funked the voters who have thrown the rest of the Rajapaksas into the dustbin of history.

The present regime, and notably its leader, has at least for the present won over a great many unlikely supporters as the parliamentary election results clearly indicate. Diluting memories of the JVP’s violent past, much of it water under the bridges, when many of those who voted last September and November were not even born, the former revolutionaries who twice attempted to seize power violently, became the NPP/JVP with the latter firmly in the driving seat merging seamlessly with over 20 other diverse groups including political parties, workers unions, women’s rights groups and youth organizations. The vast majority of those elected to the incumbent parliament are newcomers barely known outside their own pocket boroughs. So also many members of the cabinet although the powerful ministries are held by JVPers.

There is no doubt that as is the case of cadre based Marxists parties like the JVP which continues to fly the Hammer and Sickle red flag outside its headquarters, a lot of power – more so perhaps than within the cabinet – lies within the Politbureau (or whatever it is called) of the JVP. Early signals have been that there will be no rocking of the boat in the short term. The Colombo stock market galloped to new highs under the new order – although it began losing some steam on Friday – depite dire predictions of a crash under a JVP government. Relations with the IMF are on an even keel and with the staff level agreement reached in November there is no reason to fear interruption of the forward momentum.

The Governor of the Central Bank and the Secretary to the Ministry of Finance under the old order continue in office. Imaginative appointments such as those of Mr. Duminda Hulangamuwa and Dr. Hans Wijesuriya have suggested that the leftist government means business. Many reputed business leaders have been seen at NPP/JVP events pre-election and other occasions where the president was -present. While JVPers were also there, the clear signal is that the private sector is not being given the cold shoulder.