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Hail Mary pass to avoid arrest and/or imprisonment?

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Early Announcement for Trump’s Candidature for 2024

by Vijaya Chandrasoma

On Tuesday, November 15, former disgraced, twice-impeached former President Donald Trump announced his candidacy for the Presidency in 2024, under the aegis of the Republican Party. The announcement was made unilaterally, without consensual agreement, even discussion, with members of the Party.An announcement of candidature for the presidency, over two years before the scheduled election, is unprecedented. It is the earliest such an announcement has been made in history. It was also made at a time when numerous Republicans are publicly declaring their intentions to run for the 2024 Presidency.

Trump will almost certainly not be the only Republican candidate in 2024, even if he wriggles out of his criminal charges. Already, several candidates, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, Virginia Governor Glenn Youngkin, former Vice President Mike Pence and former Secretary of State, Mike Pompeo, have declared their intentions to run. There will be others.

Trump’s rally for his announcement was scheduled in the certainty, according to all polls, of celebrating an unprecedented Republican triumph in the midterms with substantial gains in both Houses. Also, to celebrate the election wins of the slate of Trump endorsed candidates in the House and the Senate. Sadly for the Republicans, and against all expert forecasts, Democrats retained their majority in the Senate, lost its majority in the House by a razor thin majority, in contrast to the polls’ prediction of a Republican flip of 50/60 seats.

Trump’s endorsees lost in all the competitive states and the incumbent Republican Congressmen endorsed by Trump, either lost, or won with reduced majorities, even in deep red districts. Although Trump only takes credit for the wins, many members of the rank and file have complained that their abysmal performance in the midterms was caused mainly by Trump’s involvement.

The atmosphere at the Republican rally was subdued and somber. Trump’s speech was lackluster, very different from his usual performance of vulgar histrionics. He read from the prepared speech, and did not stray onto his hypocritical displays of patriotic emotion. He had no reason to lie, because the lies were already included in the prepared script. He reflected the doleful mien of a desperate gambler who has played his last card, and is now facing dire consequences. I am personally familiar with that countenance.

Trump is facing several civil and criminal charges. Most of these investigations have reached conclusion, and an arrest of the former president is imminent. His crimes fall under several themes: financial, tax and insurance frauds during his presidency; extortion and obstruction of justice; his role in the January 6 insurrection; his alleged interference in the 2020 election; and the mishandling – a polite word for stealing – of confidential documents, 15 boxes of them, and storing them in an unsecured basement at his Mar-a-Lago home in Florida.

Some of these documents included Top Secret information about allies’ nuclear capabilities and information about the progress of CIA operations. The stealing of these documents, the rightful property of the government to be secured at the National Archives, is a felony tantamount to espionage and treason. It is alleged that his son-in-law, Jared Kushner, has already sold some of these Top-Secret documents to a foreign country.

I believe the primary motive behind this extraordinarily early announcement of his candidature for the 2024 election has nothing to do with a desire for a second term at the White House, and everything to do with staying out of prison. Trump has played his “Hail Mary” pass, which in American football parlance means “a very long forward pass, typically made in desperation, with an exceptionally small chance of achieving completion”. Trump, the Chosen One, is begging the Virgin Mary (his heavenly grandmother?) for strength and help in keeping him out of prison.

The law demands that no criminal action should be taken against a political candidate two months before an election, be it dogcatcher or president. Trump, in his convoluted logic, is of the lopsided opinion that the announcement of his candidacy for the highest post in the land two years before the election should give him immunity from arrest and/or imprisonment.

This will probably end up as his second Big Lie, that the period of immunity from arrest is not two months but two years. Ever the victim, Trump will replace his first slogan about the 2020 election, STOP THE STEAL with a new lie, “TWO YEARS, NOT TWO MONTHS” to his frenzied cult at rallies, which they will believe without a shred of evidence or any basis in the law. As they still believe the STOP THE STEAL lie even after two years after the election.

Which brings us to his second motive. This early announcement will succeed in fleecing his gullible supporters of millions of dollars, on the pretext of the need to pay legal fees to fight this second Big Lie in the courts. They continue to believe, in the face of conclusive evidence to the contrary, that Trump is the victim of a witch hunt surpassing the infamous witch trials in Salem, over 300 years ago. And again put millions of dollars into Trump’s pockets.

They will likely kiss the ring yet again, and recoronate Trump as their leader. Trump, in their bigoted minds, remains the last white hope to perpetuate White Supremacy, which they fear is slipping away. They will place the blame for the debacle in the recent midterms on someone else: Senator Mitch McConnell? Speaker Kevin McCarthy? His cokehead son, Donald Jr? For the radical right, any Republican, bar one, is expendable.

Who knows what people whose minds are twisted, whose hearts are full of hate, will do? They are more than likely to indulge in January 6 type riots if their Fuhrer is arrested. “Blood in the streets” has already been predicted/incited by Trump and Senator Lindsey Graham if Trump is arrested. But if that happens, the U.S. now has a President who will immediately use its military and law enforcement might to crush them and send them back into the woodwork where they belong.

The Democrats also face an important decision. Nancy Pelosi will no longer be the Speaker of the House. Sadly, she announced on Thursday that she will no longer seek to be the minority leader of the House. She is 82 years old, and the recent attack by a Republican white supremacist thug on her 82-year-old husband of 60 years, an attack in which she was the target, has probably persuaded her to leave the job she has been carrying out magnificently for over two decades.

Whoever takes over as minority leader of the House will have a tough act to follow; who will have to contend with a ruthless and vengeful Republican holding the gavel, and a Party which will use its slim majority to bring dishonour to President Biden and block his progressive legislation.

Nancy Pelosi has been one of the outstanding heroines of her generation who inspired, and continues to inspire, many women to challenge for positions of leadership which had hitherto been denied to them. Most importantly, she has been the perfect role model for the younger generation, the little girls of today, to be a part of the present global movement proving that the phrase, even in current usage, describing women as “the weaker sex” to be a total misnomer, as they dare to claim their rightful place of gender equality in society.

As English philosopher John Stuart Mill said in 1869, “The principle which regulates the existing social relations between the two sexes – the legal subordination of one sex to another – is wrong in itself and is now one of the chief hindrances to human improvement.” True in 1869, true in 2022.

Liz Cheney, the defeated Congresswoman from Wyoming and Trump bete noire, is considering presidential a run as an Independent. In a recent interview on NBC’s Today television show, Liz Cheney said, “It (a 2024 presidential run) is something I’m thinking about. I’ll make a decision in the coming months”, emphasizing that she’ll be “doing whatever it takes to keep Donald Trump out of the Oval Office”.

The idea that Liz Cheney would win the Republican nomination for 2024 is not within the realms of reality, today. She is playing the long game, given that the volatile political climate will change several times in the next two years. Once Trump is eliminated and hopefully punished for his numerous crimes, she may be welcomed back into the folds of the Republican Party. In which case, she would be a participant in Republican Primaries and pre-election debates, which will include other Republican aspirants. While Ms Cheney may not have much of a chance of winning the Republican nomination, she is undeniably the perfect person to expose Trump’s crimes of fraud, sedition and treason on national television. And also reveal those of her 2024 rivals who were Trump’s enablers/sycophants complicit in his crimes until he fell out of favour.

Cheney’s second route would be to announce her candidature, in due time, by joining an existing, though lesser-known Party (American Independent, Libertarian, Green, to name three) and contest the presidency as an Independent under its aegis. As things stand today, Liz Cheney surely would act as a spoiler (if such a spoiler is needed) to ensure the victory for the Democrats by splitting the Republican vote in 2024. Liz Cheney is a staunch old-school Conservative, with the integrity and values of the pre-Nixon Republican Party. She has already proved that she will not support any Party which threatens the preservation of U.S. Democracy.

It is of vital importance that Democrats field a candidate capable of conclusively defeating any racist and regressive Republican. Whether it is President Biden or someone younger, we have to ensure that Democrats will be allowed to continue on the path they have taken towards social and economic justice – universal healthcare, free schooling up to and including universities, realistic minimum wages, affordable housing and all those benefits enjoyed by the citizens of all developed countries, bar, shamefully, the richest and most developed country in the world.

The younger generation played a decisive role in defeating the Republicans in the midterms. Even more importantly, they represent the generation that played the pivotal role in saving democracy in the United States. As long as they continue to play that dominant role, the U.S.’ future is in good hands.



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Features

Ranking public services with AI — A roadmap to reviving institutions like SriLankan Airlines

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Efficacy measures an organisation’s capacity to achieve its mission and intended outcomes under planned or optimal conditions. It differs from efficiency, which focuses on achieving objectives with minimal resources, and effectiveness, which evaluates results in real-world conditions. Today, modern AI tools, using publicly available data, enable objective assessment of the efficacy of Sri Lanka’s government institutions.

Among key public bodies, the Supreme Court of Sri Lanka emerges as the most efficacious, outperforming the Department of Inland Revenue, Sri Lanka Customs, the Election Commission, and Parliament. In the financial and regulatory sector, the Central Bank of Sri Lanka (CBSL) ranks highest, ahead of the Securities and Exchange Commission, the Public Utilities Commission, the Telecommunications Regulatory Commission, the Insurance Regulatory Commission, and the Sri Lanka Standards Institution.

Among state-owned enterprises, the Sri Lanka Ports Authority (SLPA) leads in efficacy, followed by Bank of Ceylon and People’s Bank. Other institutions assessed included the State Pharmaceuticals Corporation, the National Water Supply and Drainage Board, the Ceylon Electricity Board, the Ceylon Petroleum Corporation, and the Sri Lanka Transport Board. At the lower end of the spectrum were Lanka Sathosa and Sri Lankan Airlines, highlighting a critical challenge for the national economy.

Sri Lankan Airlines, consistently ranked at the bottom, has long been a financial drain. Despite successive governments’ reform attempts, sustainable solutions remain elusive.

Globally, the most profitable airlines operate as highly integrated, technology-enabled ecosystems rather than as fragmented departments. Operations, finance, fleet management, route planning, engineering, marketing, and customer service are closely coordinated, sharing real-time data to maximise efficiency, safety, and profitability.

The challenge for Sri Lankan Airlines is structural. Its operations are fragmented, overly hierarchical, and poorly aligned. Simply replacing the CEO or senior leadership will not address these deep-seated weaknesses. What the airline needs is a cohesive, integrated organisational ecosystem that leverages technology for cross-functional planning and real-time decision-making.

The government must urgently consider restructuring Sri Lankan Airlines to encourage:

=Joint planning across operational divisions

=Data-driven, evidence-based decision-making

=Continuous cross-functional consultation

=Collaborative strategic decisions on route rationalisation, fleet renewal, partnerships, and cost management, rather than exclusive top-down mandates

Sustainable reform requires systemic change. Without modernised organisational structures, stronger accountability, and aligned incentives across divisions, financial recovery will remain out of reach. An integrated, performance-oriented model offers the most realistic path to operational efficiency and long-term viability.

Reforming loss-making institutions like Sri Lankan Airlines is not merely a matter of leadership change — it is a structural overhaul essential to ensuring these entities contribute productively to the national economy rather than remain perpetual burdens.

By Chula Goonasekera – Citizen Analyst

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Why Pi Day?

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International Day of Mathematics falls tomorrow

The approximate value of Pi (π) is 3.14 in mathematics. Therefore, the day 14 March is celebrated as the Pi Day. In 2019, UNESCO proclaimed 14 March as the International Day of Mathematics.

Ancient Babylonians and Egyptians figured out that the circumference of a circle is slightly more than three times its diameter. But they could not come up with an exact value for this ratio although they knew that it is a constant. This constant was later named as π which is a letter in the Greek alphabet.

Archimedes

It was the Greek mathematician Archimedes (250 BC) who was able to find an upper bound and a lower bound for this constant. He drew a circle of diameter one unit and drew hexagons inside and outside the circle such that the sides of each hexagon touch the sides of the circle. In mathematics the circle passing through all vertices of a polygon is called a ‘circumcircle’ and the largest circle that fits inside a polygon tangent to all its sides is called an ‘incircle’. The total length of the smaller hexagon then becomes the lower bound of π and the length of the hexagon outside the circle is the upper bound. He realised that by increasing the number of sides of the polygon can make the bounds get closer to the value of Pi and increased the number of sides to 12,24,48 and 60. He argued that by increasing the number of sides will ultimately result in obtaining the original circle, thereby laying the foundation for the theory of limits. He ended up with the lower bound as 22/7 and the upper bound 223/71. He could not continue his research as his hometown Syracuse was invaded by Romans and was killed by one of the soldiers. His last words were ‘do not disturb my circles’, perhaps a reference to his continuing efforts to find the value of π to a greater accuracy.

Archimedes can be considered as the father of geometry. His contributions revolutionised geometry and his methods anticipated integral calculus. He invented the pulley and the hydraulic screw for drawing water from a well. He also discovered the law of hydrostatics. He formulated the law of levers which states that a smaller weight placed farther from a pivot can balance a much heavier weight closer to it. He famously said “Give me a lever long enough and a place to stand and I will move the earth”.

Mathematicians have found many expressions for π as a sum of infinite series that converge to its value. One such famous series is the Leibniz Series found in 1674 by the German mathematician Gottfried Leibniz, which is given below.

π = 4 ( 1 – 1/3 + 1/5 – 1/7 + 1/9 – ………….)

The Indian mathematical genius Ramanujan came up with a magnificent formula in 1910. The short form of the formula is as follows.

π = 9801/(1103 √8)

For practical applications an approximation is sufficient. Even NASA uses only the approximation 3.141592653589793 for its interplanetary navigation calculations.

It is not just an interesting and curious number. It is used for calculations in navigation, encryption, space exploration, video game development and even in medicine. As π is fundamental to spherical geometry, it is at the heart of positioning systems in GPS navigations. It also contributes significantly to cybersecurity. As it is an irrational number it is an excellent foundation for generating randomness required in encryption and securing communications. In the medical field, it helps to calculate blood flow rates and pressure differentials. In diagnostic tools such as CT scans and MRI, pi is an important component in mathematical algorithms and signal processing techniques.

This elegant, never-ending number demonstrates how mathematics transforms into practical applications that shape our world. The possibilities of what it can do are infinite as the number itself. It has become a symbol of beauty and complexity in mathematics. “It matters little who first arrives at an idea, rather what is significant is how far that idea can go.” said Sophie Germain.

Mathematics fans are intrigued by this irrational number and attempt to calculate it as far as they can. In March 2022, Emma Haruka Iwao of Japan calculated it to 100 trillion decimal places in Google Cloud. It had taken 157 days. The Guinness World Record for reciting the number from memory is held by Rajveer Meena of India for 70000 decimal places over 10 hours.

Happy Pi Day!

The author is a senior examiner of the International Baccalaureate in the UK and an educational consultant at the Overseas School of Colombo.

by R N A de Silva

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Sheer rise of Realpolitik making the world see the brink

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A combined US-Israel attack on Iran.(BBC)

The recent humanly costly torpedoing of an Iranian naval vessel in Sri Lanka’s Exclusive Economic Zone by a US submarine has raised a number of issues of great importance to international political discourse and law that call for elucidation. It is best that enlightened commentary is brought to bear in such discussions because at present misleading and uninformed speculation on questions arising from the incident are being aired by particularly jingoistic politicians of Sri Lanka’s South which could prove deleterious.

As matters stand, there seems to be no credible evidence that the Indian state was aware of the impending torpedoing of the Iranian vessel but these acerbic-tongued politicians of Sri Lanka’s South would have the local public believe that the tragedy was triggered with India’s connivance. Likewise, India is accused of ‘embroiling’ Sri Lanka in the incident on account of seemingly having prior knowledge of it and not warning Sri Lanka about the impending disaster.

It is plain that a process is once again afoot to raise anti-India hysteria in Sri Lanka. An obligation is cast on the Sri Lankan government to ensure that incendiary speculation of the above kind is defeated and India-Sri Lanka relations are prevented from being in any way harmed. Proactive measures are needed by the Sri Lankan government and well meaning quarters to ensure that public discourse in such matters have a factual and rational basis. ‘Knowledge gaps’ could prove hazardous.

Meanwhile, there could be no doubt that Sri Lanka’s sovereignty was violated by the US because the sinking of the Iranian vessel took place in Sri Lanka’s Exclusive Economic Zone. While there is no international decrying of the incident, and this is to be regretted, Sri Lanka’s helplessness and small player status would enable the US to ‘get away with it’.

Could anything be done by the international community to hold the US to account over the act of lawlessness in question? None is the answer at present. This is because in the current ‘Global Disorder’ major powers could commit the gravest international irregularities with impunity. As the threadbare cliché declares, ‘Might is Right’….. or so it seems.

Unfortunately, the UN could only merely verbally denounce any violations of International Law by the world’s foremost powers. It cannot use countervailing force against violators of the law, for example, on account of the divided nature of the UN Security Council, whose permanent members have shown incapability of seeing eye-to-eye on grave matters relating to International Law and order over the decades.

The foregoing considerations could force the conclusion on uncritical sections that Political Realism or Realpolitik has won out in the end. A basic premise of the school of thought known as Political Realism is that power or force wielded by states and international actors determine the shape, direction and substance of international relations. This school stands in marked contrast to political idealists who essentially proclaim that moral norms and values determine the nature of local and international politics.

While, British political scientist Thomas Hobbes, for instance, was a proponent of Political Realism, political idealism has its roots in the teachings of Socrates, Plato and latterly Friedrich Hegel of Germany, to name just few such notables.

On the face of it, therefore, there is no getting way from the conclusion that coercive force is the deciding factor in international politics. If this were not so, US President Donald Trump in collaboration with Israeli Rightist Premier Benjamin Natanyahu could not have wielded the ‘big stick’, so to speak, on Iran, killed its Supreme Head of State, terrorized the Iranian public and gone ‘scot-free’. That is, currently, the US’ impunity seems to be limitless.

Moreover, the evidence is that the Western bloc is reuniting in the face of Iran’s threats to stymie the flow of oil from West Asia to the rest of the world. The recent G7 summit witnessed a coming together of the foremost powers of the global North to ensure that the West does not suffer grave negative consequences from any future blocking of western oil supplies.

Meanwhile, Israel is having a ‘free run’ of the Middle East, so to speak, picking out perceived adversarial powers, such as Lebanon, and militarily neutralizing them; once again with impunity. On the other hand, Iran has been bringing under assault, with no questions asked, Gulf states that are seen as allying with the US and Israel. West Asia is facing a compounded crisis and International Law seems to be helplessly silent.

Wittingly or unwittingly, matters at the heart of International Law and peace are being obfuscated by some pro-Trump administration commentators meanwhile. For example, retired US Navy Captain Brent Sadler has cited Article 51 of the UN Charter, which provides for the right to self or collective self-defence of UN member states in the face of armed attacks, as justifying the US sinking of the Iranian vessel (See page 2 of The Island of March 10, 2026). But the Article makes it clear that such measures could be resorted to by UN members only ‘ if an armed attack occurs’ against them and under no other circumstances. But no such thing happened in the incident in question and the US acted under a sheer threat perception.

Clearly, the US has violated the Article through its action and has once again demonstrated its tendency to arbitrarily use military might. The general drift of Sadler’s thinking is that in the face of pressing national priorities, obligations of a state under International Law could be side-stepped. This is a sure recipe for international anarchy because in such a policy environment states could pursue their national interests, irrespective of their merits, disregarding in the process their obligations towards the international community.

Moreover, Article 51 repeatedly reiterates the authority of the UN Security Council and the obligation of those states that act in self-defence to report to the Council and be guided by it. Sadler, therefore, could be said to have cited the Article very selectively, whereas, right along member states’ commitments to the UNSC are stressed.

However, it is beyond doubt that international anarchy has strengthened its grip over the world. While the US set destabilizing precedents after the crumbling of the Cold War that paved the way for the current anarchic situation, Russia further aggravated these degenerative trends through its invasion of Ukraine. Stepping back from anarchy has thus emerged as the prime challenge for the world community.

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