Business
Fitch Ratings expect another interest rate cut before end-2023
‘Downside risks to banks are easing’
‘Sri Lanka still remains dependent on official financing sources’
‘Normalising relationship with foreign creditors may result in a ratings upgrade’
by Sanath Nanayakkare
The Central Bank of Sri Lanka (CBSL) which cut the standing deposit facility rate by a cumulative 350bp since January 2023 is expected to go for another rate cut before end-2023, Fitch Ratings said in a report released on 28 Sep. 2023.
“The downside risks to banks are easing. The exclusion of banks’ holdings of treasury securities from the DDO has alleviated some of the pressure on their capital positions from weakening loan quality and rupee depreciation as well as any immediate funding and liquidity stresses. We believe any incremental risk to the banks’ capital from foreign currency debt restructuring is likely to be manageable given their limited exposure to the defaulted sovereign bonds (3.6% of their combined total assets at end-1H23) and high provision coverage.
The Fitch report mainly dealt on the upgrading of Sri Lanka’s LongTerm Local-Currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) to ‘CCC-‘ from ‘RD’ (Restricted Default).
” The upgrade of Sri Lanka’s Long-Term Local-Currency IDR to ‘CCC-‘ reflects the completion of the local-currency portion of Sri Lanka’s domestic debt optimisation (DDO) plan, launched in July 2023, following the exchange of the Central Bank of Sri Lanka’s (CBSL) treasury bills and provisional advance into new treasury bonds and bills on 21 September 2023″, Fitch said.
“We assume the debt restructuring will lower Sri Lanka’s gross financing needs over the medium term, in line with the targets under the IMF’s Extended Fund Facility, and support an improvement in the country’s debt metrics over time. Local-currency restructuring could accelerate progress towards the restructuring of external debt,” they said.
The following are some extracts from the report: “General government debt and the interest costs faced by the government will remain high, despite the debt restructuring. Sri Lanka’s gross general government debt-to-GDP ratio is set to fall only gradually to just above 100% of GDP by 2028, from 128% of GDP in 2022, according to IMF programme forecasts published in March 2023, which incorporated a local- and foreign-currency debt restructuring scenario. The IMF scenario forecast the government interest-to- revenue ratio will decline to 42% by 2028, from over 70% in 2022.”
“The authorities expect the completion of the local-currency debt exchange to lower Sri Lanka’s gross government financing needs (GFN)/GDP by about 1.5pp over 2027-2032, according to documents published in July. External debt restructuring, which authorities expect to reduce GFN by an additional 2.6pp, remains critical to achieving the target of reducing GFN below 13% by 2027-2032, from 34% in 2022.”
“We believe IMF programme implementation, in particular fiscal measures, will be central to achieving debt sustainability. The risks remain significant, in our view, as a record of weak revenue generation presents challenges to achieving a faster reduction in the budget deficit and the general government debt-to-GDP ratio.”
“Authorities have taken several tax measures since May 2022 to improve revenue collection, including raising the corporate income tax rate to 30% from 24%, increasing the VAT rate to 15% from 8%, and raising fuel excise taxes. This resulted in revenue collection rising 43% yoy in 1H23. Additional measures in the pipeline include removing product-specific VAT exemptions before 2024 and introducing a property tax before 2025.”
“Sri Lanka’s foreign-exchange (FX) reserves have been improving, with gross FX reserves rising to USD3.6 billion in August 2023, from USD1.9 billion at end-2022, partly the result of IMF disbursements and suspension of external debt servicing. However, without access to international capital markets, the sovereign remains dependent on official financing sources.”
We expect a gradual pick-up in exports in 2024-2025 after a contraction in 2023. Overseas worker remittance inflows are also rising. We therefore expect the current account deficit to stabilise at 1.6% of GDP over 2024-2025.”
“The sovereign remains in default on foreign currency obligations and has initiated a debt restructuring with official and private external creditors. The Ministry of Finance’s statement on 12 April 2022 said it had suspended normal debt servicing of several categories of external debt, including bonds issued in international capital markets, foreign currency-denominated loans and credit facilities with commercial banks and institutional lenders.”
“Completion of the foreign-currency commercial debt restructuring that Fitch judges to have normalised the relationship with private-sector creditors may result in an upgrade.”
Business
Rupee stability reflective of positive impact of policies taken thus far – CBSL Governor
By Hiran H. Senewiratne
The rupee has stabilised somewhat in recent weeks reflecting the impact of policy measures that have been taken thus far, Central Bank Governor Dr Nandalal Weerasinghe said.
“We will continue to closely monitor domestic and global developments for emerging risks and expect the monetary policy tightening carried out previously to transmit to the economy in the period ahead, Central Bank Governor Dr Weerasinghe said at the monthly monetary policy review meeting held at Central Bank head office yesterday.
He said that the CBSL stands ready to take appropriate measures to ensure that inflation stabilises around the 5 percent target, while supporting the economy to reach its potential over the medium term.
Amid those developments the Central Bank kept its Overnight Policy Rate (OPR) unchanged at 8.75 percent, it said in a statement, after considering the evolving conditions and outlook on the domestic and global fronts.
Dr Weerasinghe added: ‘Renewed tensions in the Middle East have resulted in a surge in global commodity prices, particularly petroleum. These developments are likely to dampen global economic prospects with potential spillover.
‘The current low level of inflation, at 1.6 percent year -on-year in February 2026, relative to the target of 5 percent provides sufficient space to accommodate the impact of higher energy prices and their spillovers on inflation.
‘Headline inflation accelerated to 6.8 percent in June 2026, mainly due to higher domestic energy and food prices.
‘Headline inflation is expected to remain above the target of 5% in the near term before gradually returning to the target level. Core inflation is also expected to increase and remain around the headline inflation target.
‘The Board arrived at the decision to maintain the overnight policy rate after carefully considering the evolving conditions and outlook on the domestic and global fronts.
‘Renewed tensions in the Middle East have resulted in a surge in global commodity prices, particularly petroleum. These developments are likely to dampen global economic prospects with potential spillovers to the domestic economy through multiple channels.
‘The monetary policy tightening in May 2026 and its gradual transmission to the real economy are expected to moderate credit growth and the buildup of demand pressures going forward.
‘The pressure on the external sector caused by the Middle East conflict has eased somewhat, although the outlook remains uncertain due to renewed tensions.
‘Since April 2026, the external current account recorded a deficit, mainly because higher fuel import costs widened the merchandise trade deficit and tourism earnings slowed down.
‘Going forward, import demand, including demand for motor vehicles, is expected to reduce in response to recent policy measures.
‘Meanwhile, workers’ remittances have remained strong so far in 2026. Gross Official Reserves stood at USD 6.45 bn at the end of June 2026, amid foreign debt service payments.’
Business
Dengue outbreak exposes multi-billion rupee burden on state health system
By Ifham Nizam
The mosquito that spreads dengue is tiny. The financial burden it leaves behind is anything but.
As Sri Lanka grapples with its worst dengue outbreak in nearly a decade, the country’s free public healthcare system is absorbing a mounting financial shock that experts say could run into billions of rupees, even as the human toll continues to rise.
According to the National Dengue Control Unit (NDCU), more than 76,000 dengue infections and 53 deaths have been reported so far this year, making 2026 one of the most challenging years for dengue control in recent history.
The NDCU has warned that the outbreak is being driven largely by the highly virulent DENV-2 strain, while persistent rainfall, poor waste management and mosquito breeding in urban and semi-urban areas continue to fuel transmission.
Although the Ministry of Health has yet to publish an official estimate of the cost of treating dengue patients, the economic implications are becoming increasingly evident.
Published medical research estimates that treating a dengue patient costs between USD 239 and USD 1,056, depending on the severity of the illness. At an exchange rate of around Rs. 330 to the US dollar, this translates to approximately Rs. 79,000 to Rs. 348,000 per patient.
Applied to the more than 76,000 reported cases, the theoretical direct medical cost ranges from Rs. 6 billion to more than Rs. 26 billion. While many patients are treated as outpatients and therefore incur lower costs, the estimates underline the immense financial pressure being placed on Sri Lanka’s publicly funded healthcare system.
The National Dengue Control Unit has repeatedly urged the public to eliminate mosquito breeding sites, warning that hospitals alone cannot contain the outbreak without sustained community participation.
Health officials have intensified countrywide inspections, awareness campaigns and vector-control programmes as case numbers continue to climb.
Officials say hospitals have expanded dengue wards, increased bed capacity and deployed additional medical and nursing staff to cope with the surge in admissions.
The government has also mobilised Air Force drones to identify inaccessible mosquito breeding grounds while strengthening surveillance operations across high-risk districts.
The financial impact extends beyond the Ministry of Health. Families lose income when wage earners fall ill or parents stay home to care for infected children. Businesses suffer productivity losses, while schools experience increased absenteeism during peak transmission periods.
Sri Lanka’s previous major dengue epidemic in 2017 was estimated to have cost around Rs. 1.94 billion in healthcare and outbreak-control expenditure. With inflation, higher pharmaceutical prices and increased operational costs since then, health economists believe the financial burden of the current outbreak is likely to be substantially greater.
The outbreak also raises broader questions about climate resilience and public investment. Dengue is increasingly being recognised not merely as a seasonal health issue but as an economic challenge capable of straining government finances and slowing productivity.
For the National Dengue Control Unit, the message remains simple: prevention is far cheaper than treatment.
Every breeding site destroyed, every community clean-up campaign conducted and every household inspection completed reduces the need for costly hospital care.
As the monsoon continues to create favourable conditions for mosquito breeding, the NDCU warns that sustained public vigilance will determine whether the country’s health bill continues to climb—or begins to fall.
Business
Shantha Bandara reappointed SLCPI president as Chamber advances regulatory reform and patient access
The Sri Lanka Chamber of the Pharmaceutical Industry (SLCPI) announced the reappointment of Sunshine Healthcare Lanka Ltd. Director and Chief Executive Officer Shantha Bandara as its President for the 2026/27 term at the Chamber’s 65th Annual General Meeting held at Cinnamon Grand Colombo.
The event was graced by Dr. Hansaka Wijemuni, Deputy Minister of Health, as Chief Guest, together with government representatives, healthcare partners, past presidents, member companies and other industry stakeholders.
Bandara’s reappointment provides continuity to a reform-oriented agenda that has strengthened the Chamber’s governance, ethical standards and engagement with policymakers and regulators. His renewed mandate will focus on converting the progress made during 2025/26 into practical regulatory improvements that support the availability, accessibility and affordability of quality medicines in Sri Lanka.
SLCPI represents more than 70 pharmaceutical importers, manufacturers, distributors and retailers. Its members account for over 90% of Sri Lanka’s private pharmaceutical market, while the wider industry directly employs more than 80,000 people and indirectly supports nearly 400,000.
Reflecting on the past year, Bandara said the industry had operated amid sustained domestic and global pressure. Exchange-rate volatility, disruptions to international shipping routes, rising freight, insurance, fuel and electricity costs, and constrained consumer purchasing power placed significant pressure on pharmaceutical supply chains and business viability.
Despite these challenges, SLCPI continued to engage constructively with the Ministry of Health, the National Medicines Regulatory Authority and other stakeholders, presenting evidence-based recommendations on pharmaceutical pricing, import licence renewals and continuity of supply.
A major achievement during Bandara’s first term was the adoption of new Articles of Association following extensive consultation, legal review and member engagement. The revised Articles provide a stronger constitutional foundation for the Chamber, clarify governance structures and reinforce member rights and responsibilities.
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