Business
Fitch Ratings expect another interest rate cut before end-2023
‘Downside risks to banks are easing’
‘Sri Lanka still remains dependent on official financing sources’
‘Normalising relationship with foreign creditors may result in a ratings upgrade’
by Sanath Nanayakkare
The Central Bank of Sri Lanka (CBSL) which cut the standing deposit facility rate by a cumulative 350bp since January 2023 is expected to go for another rate cut before end-2023, Fitch Ratings said in a report released on 28 Sep. 2023.
“The downside risks to banks are easing. The exclusion of banks’ holdings of treasury securities from the DDO has alleviated some of the pressure on their capital positions from weakening loan quality and rupee depreciation as well as any immediate funding and liquidity stresses. We believe any incremental risk to the banks’ capital from foreign currency debt restructuring is likely to be manageable given their limited exposure to the defaulted sovereign bonds (3.6% of their combined total assets at end-1H23) and high provision coverage.
The Fitch report mainly dealt on the upgrading of Sri Lanka’s LongTerm Local-Currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) to ‘CCC-‘ from ‘RD’ (Restricted Default).
” The upgrade of Sri Lanka’s Long-Term Local-Currency IDR to ‘CCC-‘ reflects the completion of the local-currency portion of Sri Lanka’s domestic debt optimisation (DDO) plan, launched in July 2023, following the exchange of the Central Bank of Sri Lanka’s (CBSL) treasury bills and provisional advance into new treasury bonds and bills on 21 September 2023″, Fitch said.
“We assume the debt restructuring will lower Sri Lanka’s gross financing needs over the medium term, in line with the targets under the IMF’s Extended Fund Facility, and support an improvement in the country’s debt metrics over time. Local-currency restructuring could accelerate progress towards the restructuring of external debt,” they said.
The following are some extracts from the report: “General government debt and the interest costs faced by the government will remain high, despite the debt restructuring. Sri Lanka’s gross general government debt-to-GDP ratio is set to fall only gradually to just above 100% of GDP by 2028, from 128% of GDP in 2022, according to IMF programme forecasts published in March 2023, which incorporated a local- and foreign-currency debt restructuring scenario. The IMF scenario forecast the government interest-to- revenue ratio will decline to 42% by 2028, from over 70% in 2022.”
“The authorities expect the completion of the local-currency debt exchange to lower Sri Lanka’s gross government financing needs (GFN)/GDP by about 1.5pp over 2027-2032, according to documents published in July. External debt restructuring, which authorities expect to reduce GFN by an additional 2.6pp, remains critical to achieving the target of reducing GFN below 13% by 2027-2032, from 34% in 2022.”
“We believe IMF programme implementation, in particular fiscal measures, will be central to achieving debt sustainability. The risks remain significant, in our view, as a record of weak revenue generation presents challenges to achieving a faster reduction in the budget deficit and the general government debt-to-GDP ratio.”
“Authorities have taken several tax measures since May 2022 to improve revenue collection, including raising the corporate income tax rate to 30% from 24%, increasing the VAT rate to 15% from 8%, and raising fuel excise taxes. This resulted in revenue collection rising 43% yoy in 1H23. Additional measures in the pipeline include removing product-specific VAT exemptions before 2024 and introducing a property tax before 2025.”
“Sri Lanka’s foreign-exchange (FX) reserves have been improving, with gross FX reserves rising to USD3.6 billion in August 2023, from USD1.9 billion at end-2022, partly the result of IMF disbursements and suspension of external debt servicing. However, without access to international capital markets, the sovereign remains dependent on official financing sources.”
We expect a gradual pick-up in exports in 2024-2025 after a contraction in 2023. Overseas worker remittance inflows are also rising. We therefore expect the current account deficit to stabilise at 1.6% of GDP over 2024-2025.”
“The sovereign remains in default on foreign currency obligations and has initiated a debt restructuring with official and private external creditors. The Ministry of Finance’s statement on 12 April 2022 said it had suspended normal debt servicing of several categories of external debt, including bonds issued in international capital markets, foreign currency-denominated loans and credit facilities with commercial banks and institutional lenders.”
“Completion of the foreign-currency commercial debt restructuring that Fitch judges to have normalised the relationship with private-sector creditors may result in an upgrade.”
Business
Saudi Vision 2030 offers new economic opportunities for Sri Lanka
By Ifham Nizam
Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 is creating opportunities for Sri Lanka in trade, investment, renewable energy, tourism and employment while strengthening the longstanding friendship between the two countries.
Led by King Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud and Crown Prince and Prime Minister Mohammed bin Salman, the programme aims to diversify Saudi Arabia’s economy, attract international investment, develop new industries and reduce dependence on oil revenues.
Launched in 2016, Vision 2030 is built around three pillars: a vibrant society, a thriving economy and an ambitious nation. Its focus on tourism, technology, logistics, renewable energy, industrial development and private-sector growth aligns with Sri Lanka’s need for foreign investment, stronger exports, energy security and sustainable employment.
Trade and investment opportunities
The establishment of the first Saudi–Sri Lanka Joint Business Council in November 2025 created a platform for businesses to identify investment opportunities, develop partnerships and address trade barriers. Saudi participation in Sri Lanka Expo 2027 could further strengthen commercial ties.
Sri Lanka can expand exports of value-added tea, spices, apparel, rubber products and processed foods to Saudi Arabia. Better distribution networks, packaging and compliance with market standards would help local producers, especially small and medium-sized enterprises, compete more effectively.
Saudi investors could explore Sri Lankan tourism, logistics, food processing, renewable energy and export-oriented manufacturing. The goal should be long-term partnerships that create jobs, transfer technology and improve productivity rather than simply increasing trade.
Renewable energy and green investment
Energy is another promising area. Saudi Arabia’s diversification programme includes major investments in renewable energy and emerging technologies. Partnerships in solar power, battery storage, electricity infrastructure and energy efficiency could help Sri Lanka reduce dependence on imported fossil fuels and improve energy security.
Cooperation could also include technical training and technology transfer. Saudi investment in sustainable tourism, modern agriculture, water management and infrastructure could create further opportunities if projects are commercially viable and supported by transparent regulations.
Vision 2030 seeks to make Saudi Arabia a major international tourism destination while improving services for pilgrims visiting Makkah and Madinah.
Sri Lanka could attract more Saudi visitors through better air connectivity, targeted marketing and partnerships with travel operators. Sri Lankan companies could also supply food, hospitality services and other products to Saudi Arabia’s expanding tourism sector.
Employment remains central to bilateral relations. Sri Lankan workers contribute to the Saudi economy, while their remittances provide valuable foreign exchange at home. As Saudi Arabia develops new industries, Sri Lanka can strengthen vocational training and skills-based recruitment in hospitality, healthcare, construction and technical services. Recognised qualifications, ethical recruitment and worker protection would benefit both countries.
Economic cooperation is complemented by Saudi Arabia’s distinctive spiritual role as custodian of Islam’s two holiest mosques.
Through the Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques’ Guests Programme for Hajj, Umrah and Visit, King Salman approved the hosting, at his personal expense, of 1,000 male and female Umrah performers from around the world in June 2026. Implemented by the Saudi Ministry of Islamic Affairs, Dawah and Guidance, the programme’s first group included 250 guests from 16 Asian countries, who visited Madinah and Makkah and took part in cultural and educational activities.
For those invited, performing Umrah and visiting the holy sites is a deeply meaningful religious experience. The initiative reflects Saudi Arabia’s commitment to facilitating worship and strengthening bonds among Muslim communities. It also complements Vision 2030’s Pilgrim Experience Programme, which aims to improve transport, accommodation, digital services and facilities for pilgrims.
This spiritual and cultural engagement adds a human dimension to commercial ties, helping deepen understanding between the two peoples.
Sri Lanka and Saudi Arabia established diplomatic relations in 1974, and their partnership has grown through trade, employment, development cooperation and diplomacy. The next step is to convert this goodwill into measurable results.
Sri Lanka needs a clear portfolio of viable projects, predictable regulations and efficient procedures to attract Saudi investment. Local businesses must be prepared to meet Saudi market requirements, while the Joint Business Council and Sri Lanka Expo 2027 can help connect investors and entrepreneurs.
The partnership should ultimately be judged by increased exports, productive investment, quality employment and the transfer of skills and technology.
Vision 2030 offers Sri Lanka an opportunity to build a more dynamic relationship with Saudi Arabia by combining commercial cooperation with diplomatic, spiritual and people-to-people ties. Together, the two countries can create lasting benefits for their economies and communities.
Business
LKR 3 billion HLAB fund launched to help Sri Lankan businesses scale
Hatch, Lankan Angel Network and BOV Capital join forces, with First Capital Holdings PLC committing LKR 300 million as anchor limited partner in a fund built on a commercial investment case.
Starting a business is difficult. Building one that can grow, compete and endure is harder still.
For Sri Lankan founders, the challenge doesn’t end when they prove their idea works. The next stage demands stronger operations, access to new markets and the capital to pursue opportunities that could transform a promising venture into a sustainable business.
A new initiative aims to help more founders take that next step.
Hatch, Lankan Angel Network (LAN) and BOV Capital have launched HLAB, a collective LKR 3 billion fund designed to back early and growth stage regional companies that are incorporated in Sri Lanka. Announced at the final event of First Capital Startup Nation, organised by Hatch, the initiative brings together three established participants in the country’s startup ecosystem around a shared ambition: expanding access to capital for businesses seeking to grow.
Adding institutional participation to the initiative, First Capital Holdings PLC has committed LKR 300 million as the fund’s anchor limited partner, representing 10% of its total size.
From promising startups to enduring businesses
The transition from an early stage venture to a sustainable, growing company is a defining point in a founder’s journey. Businesses must move beyond establishing their models and begin building the operational strength and market reach needed to pursue larger opportunities.
Business
JXG’s Wasanthi Stephen makes history as the first female recipient of the CIPM Sri Lanka Lifetime Gold Award
JXG (Janashakthi Group) celebrates Wasanthi Stephen, Group Chief Human Resources Officer, on becoming the first female recipient of the prestigious CIPM-Baurs Lifetime Gold Award 2026 from the Chartered Institute of Personnel Management (CIPM) Sri Lanka since the award’s inception. Presented on 14 October 2026, at the opening of the National Human Resource Conference (NHRC) 2026 at Monarch Imperial, Kotte, the award marks a historic milestone for Sri Lanka’s Human Resources profession and a proud moment for JXG.
The highest individual recognition in Sri Lanka’s Human Resource Management sphere, the CIPM Sri Lanka Lifetime Gold Award celebrates individuals whose long-standing contributions have advanced the HR profession at organisational, national, and international levels. It recognises professional excellence, ethical leadership, transformational impact, and a sustained commitment to people and institutions.
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