Business

Fitch Ratings expect another interest rate cut before end-2023

Published

3 years ago

2023/10/2

Thilina Walpola

‘Downside risks to banks are easing’

‘Sri Lanka still remains dependent on official financing sources’

‘Normalising relationship with foreign creditors may result in a ratings upgrade’

by Sanath Nanayakkare

The Central Bank of Sri Lanka (CBSL) which cut the standing deposit facility rate by a cumulative 350bp since January 2023 is expected to go for another rate cut before end-2023, Fitch Ratings said in a report released on 28 Sep. 2023.

“The downside risks to banks are easing. The exclusion of banks’ holdings of treasury securities from the DDO has alleviated some of the pressure on their capital positions from weakening loan quality and rupee depreciation as well as any immediate funding and liquidity stresses. We believe any incremental risk to the banks’ capital from foreign currency debt restructuring is likely to be manageable given their limited exposure to the defaulted sovereign bonds (3.6% of their combined total assets at end-1H23) and high provision coverage.

The Fitch report mainly dealt on the upgrading of Sri Lanka’s LongTerm Local-Currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) to ‘CCC-‘ from ‘RD’ (Restricted Default).

” The upgrade of Sri Lanka’s Long-Term Local-Currency IDR to ‘CCC-‘ reflects the completion of the local-currency portion of Sri Lanka’s domestic debt optimisation (DDO) plan, launched in July 2023, following the exchange of the Central Bank of Sri Lanka’s (CBSL) treasury bills and provisional advance into new treasury bonds and bills on 21 September 2023″, Fitch said.

“We assume the debt restructuring will lower Sri Lanka’s gross financing needs over the medium term, in line with the targets under the IMF’s Extended Fund Facility, and support an improvement in the country’s debt metrics over time. Local-currency restructuring could accelerate progress towards the restructuring of external debt,” they said.

The following are some extracts from the report: “General government debt and the interest costs faced by the government will remain high, despite the debt restructuring. Sri Lanka’s gross general government debt-to-GDP ratio is set to fall only gradually to just above 100% of GDP by 2028, from 128% of GDP in 2022, according to IMF programme forecasts published in March 2023, which incorporated a local- and foreign-currency debt restructuring scenario. The IMF scenario forecast the government interest-to- revenue ratio will decline to 42% by 2028, from over 70% in 2022.”

“The authorities expect the completion of the local-currency debt exchange to lower Sri Lanka’s gross government financing needs (GFN)/GDP by about 1.5pp over 2027-2032, according to documents published in July. External debt restructuring, which authorities expect to reduce GFN by an additional 2.6pp, remains critical to achieving the target of reducing GFN below 13% by 2027-2032, from 34% in 2022.”

“We believe IMF programme implementation, in particular fiscal measures, will be central to achieving debt sustainability. The risks remain significant, in our view, as a record of weak revenue generation presents challenges to achieving a faster reduction in the budget deficit and the general government debt-to-GDP ratio.”

“Authorities have taken several tax measures since May 2022 to improve revenue collection, including raising the corporate income tax rate to 30% from 24%, increasing the VAT rate to 15% from 8%, and raising fuel excise taxes. This resulted in revenue collection rising 43% yoy in 1H23. Additional measures in the pipeline include removing product-specific VAT exemptions before 2024 and introducing a property tax before 2025.”

“Sri Lanka’s foreign-exchange (FX) reserves have been improving, with gross FX reserves rising to USD3.6 billion in August 2023, from USD1.9 billion at end-2022, partly the result of IMF disbursements and suspension of external debt servicing. However, without access to international capital markets, the sovereign remains dependent on official financing sources.”

We expect a gradual pick-up in exports in 2024-2025 after a contraction in 2023. Overseas worker remittance inflows are also rising. We therefore expect the current account deficit to stabilise at 1.6% of GDP over 2024-2025.”

“The sovereign remains in default on foreign currency obligations and has initiated a debt restructuring with official and private external creditors. The Ministry of Finance’s statement on 12 April 2022 said it had suspended normal debt servicing of several categories of external debt, including bonds issued in international capital markets, foreign currency-denominated loans and credit facilities with commercial banks and institutional lenders.”

“Completion of the foreign-currency commercial debt restructuring that Fitch judges to have normalised the relationship with private-sector creditors may result in an upgrade.”

All News Advertisement

Related Topics:Banks financing Fitch Ratings

Up Next

Watawala Plantations Chairman bestowed with ‘The Order of the Rising Sun’ by Government of Japan

Don't Miss

Fonterra powering the future of Sri Lanka’s smallholder dairy farmers

Click to comment

Business

Oil prices hit $100 for the first time since May

Published

16 hours ago

2026/07/24

Priyan

Oil prices hit $100 a barrel for the first time since May as the escalating conflict in the Middle East reignited fears over global energy supplies.

Brent crude – the global benchmark for oil prices – rose more than 6% on Thursday following several days of increases as the US stepped up military strikes against Iran.

Prices spiked after Houthi militia in Yemen attacked oil tankers in the Red Sea, threatening a key export route that Saudi Arabia has used to bypass the Strait of Hormuz.

Gas prices have also risen steadily over the past month, with the benchmark UK gas price currently at around 150 per therm, up from around 98p at the end of June.

Oil prices had been falling following a temporary ceasefire between the US and Iran.

They dropped back to levels last seen before the US and Israel began military action against Iran on 28 February.

However, the ceasefire has failed and this week US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said the people in charge in Iran were “not ready to make a deal”.

The ongoing conflict risks pushing up inflation for many countries, including UK and the US leading to higher prices for consumers.

Higher oil prices typically lead to petrol and diesel becoming more expensive.

While drivers are affected directly, households could also see prices of other goods, such as food, increase due to businesses passing on higher transportation costs to customers.

Inflation has fallen both in the UK – down to 2.6% in the year to June helped by slowing diesel and petrol prices – and in the US to 3.5%.

But questions remain whether the slow down will prove short lived due to the renewed conflict in the Middle East.

New data released on Thursday showed that UK petrol prices have risen by 5p a litre since the beginning of July, hitting reaching almost £1.56.

Diesel is at £1.72 a litre, on average, according to the RAC.

Average gasoline prices in the US have surpassed $4 a gallon once more, up from $3.92 a month ago, according to motorist advocacy group AAA.

“More expensive fuel and energy can ripple through the wider economy, increasing costs for businesses and ultimately feeding through into the price of food and other goods,” said Jonathan Raymond, investment manager at Quilter Cheviot.

“This creates another headache for central banks as they continue their battle against inflation.

“If energy prices remain elevated, policymakers may come under pressure to keep interest rates higher for longer or even raise them. This would come as a blow to mortgage holders and borrowers already feeling the strain.”

The Bank of England, which sets UK interest rates, has held them at 3.75% in its last four meetings.

Paul Dales, chief UK economist at Capital Economics, said he believed the Bank will “almost certainly” hold them again. But he said analysts still expected that interest rates could be cut next year if energy price rises ease.

Kevin Warsh, the newly-appointed chair of the US Federal Reserve, last week told Congress that the central bank had “no tolerance to persistently elevated inflation”.

US President Donald Trump had pushed Warsh’s predecessor, Jerome Powell, to cut interest rates.

Trump has made it clear he expects Warsh to fulfil his demand for reductions in borrowing costs for Americans.

But the Fed held US interest rates between 3.5% and 3.75% at Warsh’s first meeting last month. He also told Congress that he was committed to “restoring price stability” in the wake of the Middle East conflict impacting prices.

[BBC]

Business

SEC, CSE and CA Sri Lanka sign MOU to advance XBRL-based digital reporting for listed companies

Published

23 hours ago

2026/07/24

Thilina Walpola

The signing ceremony at SEC from Left to right: Ms. Manuri Weerasinghe| Director Corporate Affairs, SEC, Tushara Jayaratne | Acting Director General, SEC, Ms. Nilupa Perera | Chief Regulatory Officer, CSE, Rajeeva Bandaranaike | Chief Executive Officer CSE, Senior Prof. D.B.P.H. Dissabandara,| Chairman, SEC, Tishan Subasinghe | President, CA Sri Lanka, Ms. Anoji de Silva | Vice President, CA Sri Lanka, Neranjith Gamage | Commission Member, SEC, Ms. Lakmali Priyangika | Chief Executive Officer, CA Sri Lanka, Ms. Rishdha Zarook Ishaq | Director Legal and Enforcement, SEC , Ms. Kumuduni Maduwanthi |Senior Manager Legal, CA Sri Lanka.

The Securities and Exchange Commission of Sri Lanka (SEC), Colombo Stock Exchange (CSE), and the Institute of Chartered Accountants of Sri Lanka (CA Sri Lanka) signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) to collaborate on the implementation of eXtensible Business Reporting Language (XBRL) based reporting for companies listed on the CSE.

The agreement marks a significant milestone in Sri Lanka’s efforts to modernise corporate reporting and strengthen the digital infrastructure of the capital market. The initiative aims to streamline the submission of both financial and non-financial information by listed entities, enhancing transparency, accessibility and investor confidence.

The MoU formalises the partnership, following the establishment of a joint SEC-CSE committee tasked with driving the initiative. With the in-principle approval of the SEC, the committee has been working closely with CA Sri Lanka to develop the framework required for the successful rollout.

XBRL is the internationally recognised standard for digital business reporting, developed and maintained by XBRL International, a global non-profit consortium. The standard enables financial and business information to be reported in a structured, machine-readable format, facilitating more efficient analysis, comparison and interpretation of corporate disclosures by regulators, investors, analysts and other stakeholders.

The introduction of XBRL reporting is expected to deliver several key benefits for both listed companies and users of financial information. These include reducing reliance on manual data processing, improving the accuracy and consistency of reported information, supporting more advanced data analysis, and lowering long-term reporting costs. The flexibility of the XBRL framework also allows organisations to tailor taxonomies to meet specific reporting requirements. In addition, XBRL adoption will enhance market transparency and efficiency by enabling quicker access to comparable corporate information. It will also align Sri Lanka’s reporting framework with global standards, making the country’s capital market more accessible and attractive to international investors familiar with XBRL-based financial reporting.

Business

LOLC Insurance and Seylan Bank celebrate Bancassurance Excellence through “League of Greatness” 2025

Published

23 hours ago

2026/07/24

Thilina Walpola

The Achievers of the Night

LOLC Insurance recently hosted the “LOLC Insurance – Seylan Bancassurance Felicitation Night 2025” under the theme “League of Greatness,” celebrating the success of its longstanding bancassurance partnership with Seylan Bank. The event marked another milestone in a strategic collaboration that has continued to grow since 2013.

The felicitation ceremony brought together senior management, sales leadership, branch representatives, and top-performing teams from both organisations to recognise excellence, appreciate contributions, and reaffirm the enduring partnership between LOLC Insurance and Seylan Bank. The collaboration currently spans 104 Seylan Bank branches across Sri Lanka, delivering accessible life and general insurance solutions islandwide.

Speaking at the event, Ramesh Jayasekara, Director/Chief Executive Officer, Seylan Bank PLC, stated, “Our partnership with LOLC Insurance continues to create meaningful value for customers while further strengthening the bancassurance proposition within the banking sector. The dedication and collaborative spirit demonstrated by both teams have been instrumental in achieving these milestones and sustaining the growth of this partnership. We look forward to enhancing our collaboration and delivering greater value to customers in the years ahead.”

Sharing insights during the event, Eugene Seneviratne, Deputy General Manager – Retail Banking, Seylan Bank, added, “The professionalism and operational efficiency demonstrated by the bancassurance teams have been instrumental in consolidating this partnership. Our branch teams continue to seamlessly manage day-to-day bancassurance functions with minimal operational escalations, reflecting the strength of a well-structured and highly efficient framework. This has contributed to a smooth and mutually beneficial working relationship, enabling the partnership to enhance coordination, execution, and overall performance.”

Addressing the gathering, Kithsiri Gunawardena, Chairman/Principal Officer of LOLC General Insurance and Director of LOLC Life Assurance, stated, “Successful partnerships are built on trust, shared values, and a common vision. The strength and longevity of this collaboration reflect the commitment of both organisations to delivering meaningful impact to customers while advancing the country’s bancassurance sector. The positive feedback and appreciation consistently received from Seylan Bank regarding the quality of service delivered and the steadfast support extended by the teams stand as a testament to the professionalism and service excellence upheld throughout the partnership.”