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Fitch Ratings expect another interest rate cut before end-2023

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‘Downside risks to banks are easing’

 ‘Sri Lanka still remains dependent on official financing sources’

 ‘Normalising relationship with foreign creditors may result in a ratings upgrade’

by Sanath Nanayakkare

The Central Bank of Sri Lanka (CBSL) which cut the standing deposit facility rate by a cumulative 350bp since January 2023 is expected to go for another rate cut before end-2023, Fitch Ratings said in a report released on 28 Sep. 2023.

“The downside risks to banks are easing. The exclusion of banks’ holdings of treasury securities from the DDO has alleviated some of the pressure on their capital positions from weakening loan quality and rupee depreciation as well as any immediate funding and liquidity stresses. We believe any incremental risk to the banks’ capital from foreign currency debt restructuring is likely to be manageable given their limited exposure to the defaulted sovereign bonds (3.6% of their combined total assets at end-1H23) and high provision coverage.

The Fitch report mainly dealt on the upgrading of Sri Lanka’s LongTerm Local-Currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) to ‘CCC-‘ from ‘RD’ (Restricted Default).

” The upgrade of Sri Lanka’s Long-Term Local-Currency IDR to ‘CCC-‘ reflects the completion of the local-currency portion of Sri Lanka’s domestic debt optimisation (DDO) plan, launched in July 2023, following the exchange of the Central Bank of Sri Lanka’s (CBSL) treasury bills and provisional advance into new treasury bonds and bills on 21 September 2023″, Fitch said.

“We assume the debt restructuring will lower Sri Lanka’s gross financing needs over the medium term, in line with the targets under the IMF’s Extended Fund Facility, and support an improvement in the country’s debt metrics over time. Local-currency restructuring could accelerate progress towards the restructuring of external debt,” they said.

The following are some extracts from the report: “General government debt and the interest costs faced by the government will remain high, despite the debt restructuring. Sri Lanka’s gross general government debt-to-GDP ratio is set to fall only gradually to just above 100% of GDP by 2028, from 128% of GDP in 2022, according to IMF programme forecasts published in March 2023, which incorporated a local- and foreign-currency debt restructuring scenario. The IMF scenario forecast the government interest-to- revenue ratio will decline to 42% by 2028, from over 70% in 2022.”

“The authorities expect the completion of the local-currency debt exchange to lower Sri Lanka’s gross government financing needs (GFN)/GDP by about 1.5pp over 2027-2032, according to documents published in July. External debt restructuring, which authorities expect to reduce GFN by an additional 2.6pp, remains critical to achieving the target of reducing GFN below 13% by 2027-2032, from 34% in 2022.”

“We believe IMF programme implementation, in particular fiscal measures, will be central to achieving debt sustainability. The risks remain significant, in our view, as a record of weak revenue generation presents challenges to achieving a faster reduction in the budget deficit and the general government debt-to-GDP ratio.”

“Authorities have taken several tax measures since May 2022 to improve revenue collection, including raising the corporate income tax rate to 30% from 24%, increasing the VAT rate to 15% from 8%, and raising fuel excise taxes. This resulted in revenue collection rising 43% yoy in 1H23. Additional measures in the pipeline include removing product-specific VAT exemptions before 2024 and introducing a property tax before 2025.”

“Sri Lanka’s foreign-exchange (FX) reserves have been improving, with gross FX reserves rising to USD3.6 billion in August 2023, from USD1.9 billion at end-2022, partly the result of IMF disbursements and suspension of external debt servicing. However, without access to international capital markets, the sovereign remains dependent on official financing sources.”

We expect a gradual pick-up in exports in 2024-2025 after a contraction in 2023. Overseas worker remittance inflows are also rising. We therefore expect the current account deficit to stabilise at 1.6% of GDP over 2024-2025.”

“The sovereign remains in default on foreign currency obligations and has initiated a debt restructuring with official and private external creditors. The Ministry of Finance’s statement on 12 April 2022 said it had suspended normal debt servicing of several categories of external debt, including bonds issued in international capital markets, foreign currency-denominated loans and credit facilities with commercial banks and institutional lenders.”

“Completion of the foreign-currency commercial debt restructuring that Fitch judges to have normalised the relationship with private-sector creditors may result in an upgrade.”



Business

Janashakthi Life delivers 36% revenue growth, ‘outperforming the industry’

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Janashakthi Life, the flagship company of JXG (Janashakthi Group), delivered a strong first-half performance in 2026, with Gross Written Premiums (GWP) increasing by 36% year-on-year to Rs. 5.11 billion. The Company’s growth significantly outpaced the industry’s 20.8% growth during the period, reflecting continued demand for its life insurance solutions and progress in expanding its customer base and strengthening its market presence.

The Company’s balance sheet also continued to expand, with total assets increasing to Rs. 41.14 billion as at Q2 2026, compared to Rs. 40.37 billion at the end of 2025. The growth reflects the continued scale of the business and provides a stronger platform to serve an expanding policyholder base while investing in the capabilities required to support its next phase of growth.

During the first half, Janashakthi Life paid Rs. 2.24 billion in claims and benefits, reaffirming its commitment to supporting policyholders when it matters most. These payments provide essential financial support at critical moments in the lives of individuals and families, highlighting the vital role of life insurance in protecting their financial wellbeing and long-term security.

The Company remained profitable during the period, recording Profit Before Tax (PBT) of Rs. 271 million, excluding the surplus transfer for the period. With the declaration of the surplus transfer, profitability is expected to be substantially higher. Janashakthi Life remains focused on strengthening earnings quality, managing costs effectively, and translating business growth into sustained improvements in overall performance.

Annika Senanayake, Chairperson of Janashakthi Insurance PLC, said, “The performance in the first half reflects the strength of Janashakthi Life’s business and the opportunities that exist to further develop the life insurance market in Sri Lanka. We remain focused on building a business that combines sustainable growth with sound fundamentals, while making insurance more accessible to a wider segment of the population. As part of JXG, Janashakthi Life is well positioned to leverage the Group’s financial services ecosystem and continue strengthening its position in the market.”

Ravi Liyanage, Director/CEO of Janashakthi Insurance PLC, said, “The first half delivered strong growth across key areas of the business, with GWP increasing 36% to Rs. 5.11 billion. In all key segments, namely regular business, group life business and single premium business, the Company has outperformed the industry significantly, demonstrating its market challenger behaviour. The Company is strengthening its stability, crossing LKR 41 billion in assets under management. Our focus now is on building on this momentum through stronger distribution, improved productivity and disciplined cost management, while continuing to enhance the customer experience by providing an unmatched service throughout the lifespan of the service contract.”

The first-half performance provides a strong platform for Janashakthi Life to build on its growth plans for the remainder of the year. The Company will continue to focus on expanding access to life insurance, strengthening customer relationships and developing solutions that respond to changing financial priorities.

With GWP growth significantly ahead of the industry, a growing asset base and increased claims and benefits delivered to policyholders, Janashakthi Life continues to build scale across its core operations. The Company remains focused on disciplined growth, stronger execution and improving the quality of its performance, with the objective of creating sustainable value for policyholders, shareholders and the wider business.

Further reinforcing its strong market standing, Janashakthi Life was recognised among Sri Lanka’s 50 Best Workplaces™ for 2026 by Great Place To Work® Sri Lanka and was also named among Brand Finance’s Sri Lanka 100 Most Valuable Brands. These recognitions reflect the Company’s continued focus on building a strong brand, delivering value to customers and creating a high-performing organisation. (JXG)

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Hunas Holdings and CCH enter strategic collaborative partnership

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(L-R): Dhanuka Samarasinghe (Chairman - Hunas Holdings PLC) Yoshihiko Tanabe, Director CCH

Major Japanese business group sees long-term potential in Hunas Holdings as the two organisations explore new opportunities for growth in Sri Lanka

Hunas Holdings PLC is entering a new phase of growth through a collaborative partnership with CCH Co., Ltd. (CCH INC.), a major Tokyo-based business group with experience across business process outsourcing (BPO), in-house services, investment, mergers and acquisitions, and business development.

The partnership follows a period in which Hunas Holdings maintained a measured approach to new investments amid volatile market conditions, focusing on identifying the right opportunities and international relationships capable of creating sustainable long-term value.

Founded in Japan in 2008, CCH has grown into a significant and diversified business group with interests across multiple industries. Its approach combines investment with M&A, business development and operational expertise, enabling the company to play an active role in the businesses and markets it enters.

For CCH, the partnership represents an opportunity to bring this experience to Sri Lanka through Hunas Holdings, an established local group with a strong platform and long-term growth ambitions.

Yoshihiko Tanabe, Director of CCH Co., Ltd., said: “Through our discussions with Hunas Holdings, we see a company with strong foundations, local expertise and a clear ambition for growth. We believe there is meaningful potential in bringing the strengths of CCH and Hunas Holdings together. I am excited about this partnership, and particularly about some of the projects and opportunities we are already exploring together. There is much to look forward to soon”

For Hunas Holdings, the collaboration marks a renewed chapter of investment and international partnership, while for CCH, it reflects confidence in Hunas Holdings and the opportunities presented by the Sri Lankan market.

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Prime Minister to headline Sri Lanka Economic and Investment Summit session

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Dr Harini Amarasuriya

Dr. Harini Amarasuriya, Prime Minister of Sri Lanka, will deliver the keynote address at a special session on day 2 of the Sri Lanka Economic & Investment Summit 2026 organised by The Ceylon Chamber of Commerce, titled “Nation Building in the Digital Age”, on 13 October 2026 at the Shangri-La Colombo.

The session will examine how Sri Lanka can use artificial intelligence, digital transformation, innovation and education to accelerate economic growth, improve productivity and build a knowledge-driven economy. As technology reshapes industries and the nature of work, the discussion will focus on how Sri Lanka can develop the capabilities needed to remain competitive and create opportunities for future generations.

The Prime Minister will be joined by Waruna Sri Dhanapala, Secretary, Ministry of Digital Economy; Prof. Roshan Ragel, Senior Lecturer in Computer Engineering, University of Peradeniya; and Sanjay Shah, Founder and CEO, Elevante AI, who together will add perspectives from government, academia, and industry. Vinod Hirdaramani, Chairman of Hirdaramani Group and Deputy Vice Chairperson of The Ceylon Chamber of Commerce, will moderate the session.

The discussion will look at the opportunities and challenges presented by emerging technologies, including artificial intelligence and automation, and their potential to transform industries and create new areas of economic activity. It will also consider the role of digitalisation in improving public services and supporting entrepreneurship.

Education and skills development will be another important part of the conversation, particularly as the demand for new capabilities grows alongside technological change. The panel will consider how Sri Lanka can prepare its workforce for future jobs while developing an environment that supports innovation and technology-led businesses.

The session will also look beyond technology itself to the wider conditions needed for a digital economy to grow. Policy, investment, infrastructure, education and collaboration between government, industry and academia will all have a role in determining how effectively Sri Lanka can turn technological change into economic opportunity.

Held under the theme “Positioning Sri Lanka in a Changing Global Economy: Resilience, Reform, and the Future of Economic Policy,” SLEIS 2026 will offer perspectives from senior policymakers, business leaders, investors and international experts over two days of discussions on Sri Lanka’s economic direction, investment opportunities and the reforms needed to support future growth.

Registrations are now open at https://sleis.chamber.lk/. For more information, contact Alikie on 011 558 8805 (alikie@chamber.lk) or Shanuka on 0701082541 (events.division@chamber.lk).

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