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Fitch Ratings expect another interest rate cut before end-2023

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‘Downside risks to banks are easing’

 ‘Sri Lanka still remains dependent on official financing sources’

 ‘Normalising relationship with foreign creditors may result in a ratings upgrade’

by Sanath Nanayakkare

The Central Bank of Sri Lanka (CBSL) which cut the standing deposit facility rate by a cumulative 350bp since January 2023 is expected to go for another rate cut before end-2023, Fitch Ratings said in a report released on 28 Sep. 2023.

“The downside risks to banks are easing. The exclusion of banks’ holdings of treasury securities from the DDO has alleviated some of the pressure on their capital positions from weakening loan quality and rupee depreciation as well as any immediate funding and liquidity stresses. We believe any incremental risk to the banks’ capital from foreign currency debt restructuring is likely to be manageable given their limited exposure to the defaulted sovereign bonds (3.6% of their combined total assets at end-1H23) and high provision coverage.

The Fitch report mainly dealt on the upgrading of Sri Lanka’s LongTerm Local-Currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) to ‘CCC-‘ from ‘RD’ (Restricted Default).

” The upgrade of Sri Lanka’s Long-Term Local-Currency IDR to ‘CCC-‘ reflects the completion of the local-currency portion of Sri Lanka’s domestic debt optimisation (DDO) plan, launched in July 2023, following the exchange of the Central Bank of Sri Lanka’s (CBSL) treasury bills and provisional advance into new treasury bonds and bills on 21 September 2023″, Fitch said.

“We assume the debt restructuring will lower Sri Lanka’s gross financing needs over the medium term, in line with the targets under the IMF’s Extended Fund Facility, and support an improvement in the country’s debt metrics over time. Local-currency restructuring could accelerate progress towards the restructuring of external debt,” they said.

The following are some extracts from the report: “General government debt and the interest costs faced by the government will remain high, despite the debt restructuring. Sri Lanka’s gross general government debt-to-GDP ratio is set to fall only gradually to just above 100% of GDP by 2028, from 128% of GDP in 2022, according to IMF programme forecasts published in March 2023, which incorporated a local- and foreign-currency debt restructuring scenario. The IMF scenario forecast the government interest-to- revenue ratio will decline to 42% by 2028, from over 70% in 2022.”

“The authorities expect the completion of the local-currency debt exchange to lower Sri Lanka’s gross government financing needs (GFN)/GDP by about 1.5pp over 2027-2032, according to documents published in July. External debt restructuring, which authorities expect to reduce GFN by an additional 2.6pp, remains critical to achieving the target of reducing GFN below 13% by 2027-2032, from 34% in 2022.”

“We believe IMF programme implementation, in particular fiscal measures, will be central to achieving debt sustainability. The risks remain significant, in our view, as a record of weak revenue generation presents challenges to achieving a faster reduction in the budget deficit and the general government debt-to-GDP ratio.”

“Authorities have taken several tax measures since May 2022 to improve revenue collection, including raising the corporate income tax rate to 30% from 24%, increasing the VAT rate to 15% from 8%, and raising fuel excise taxes. This resulted in revenue collection rising 43% yoy in 1H23. Additional measures in the pipeline include removing product-specific VAT exemptions before 2024 and introducing a property tax before 2025.”

“Sri Lanka’s foreign-exchange (FX) reserves have been improving, with gross FX reserves rising to USD3.6 billion in August 2023, from USD1.9 billion at end-2022, partly the result of IMF disbursements and suspension of external debt servicing. However, without access to international capital markets, the sovereign remains dependent on official financing sources.”

We expect a gradual pick-up in exports in 2024-2025 after a contraction in 2023. Overseas worker remittance inflows are also rising. We therefore expect the current account deficit to stabilise at 1.6% of GDP over 2024-2025.”

“The sovereign remains in default on foreign currency obligations and has initiated a debt restructuring with official and private external creditors. The Ministry of Finance’s statement on 12 April 2022 said it had suspended normal debt servicing of several categories of external debt, including bonds issued in international capital markets, foreign currency-denominated loans and credit facilities with commercial banks and institutional lenders.”

“Completion of the foreign-currency commercial debt restructuring that Fitch judges to have normalised the relationship with private-sector creditors may result in an upgrade.”



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First Sri Lankan company to receive Client Protection Certification

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Sarvodaya Development Finance PLC (SDF) has become the first Sri Lankan company to receive the Client Protection Certification, awarded by MFR under the Cerise + SPTF methodology, marking a significant milestone in the country’s responsible finance sector and reaffirming the Company’s commitment to ethical, inclusive and client-centered financial services.

SDF was awarded the Bronze level of achievement in client protection, signifying that the institution meets all standards necessary for adequate Client Protection under the Universal Standards for Social and Environmental Performance Management.

The certification was awarded by MFR, a leading global rating agency that provides assessments, data and technical expertise to the sustainable finance industry. Headquartered in Italy, MFR operates through five regional offices across Ecuador, Mexico, Kenya, the Kyrgyz Republic and India, covering four continents and maintaining one of the widest global footprints among specialized rating agencies. With more than 2,800 assignments conducted across over 110 countries, MFR holds a leading position in the global responsible finance certification and assessment landscape.

The Client Protection Certification is widely recognized and valued across the responsible finance industry, particularly among investors, donors and development finance stakeholders. It reflects an institution’s ability to uphold the principle of “doing no harm to clients”, which is considered a minimum expectation within the responsible and inclusive finance sector.

For SDF, the certification further strengthens its position as a purpose-driven financial institution committed to serving underserved communities, micro and small enterprises, rural entrepreneurs and productive sectors that require accessible, responsible and sustainable financial support. It also reinforces the Company’s approach to balancing financial inclusion with sound governance, transparency and client welfare.

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Green Cabin advances growth strategy through Havelock City collaboration

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(From left) At the signing of the MoU - Assistant Manager - Clubhouse, Overseas Realty (Ceylon) PLC - Manula Perera, Head of Legal/ Company Secretary, Overseas Realty (Ceylon) PLC - Melissa Jansz, CEO/ Director, Overseas Realty (Ceylon) PLC - Pravir Samarasinghe with Managing Director, Cyril Rodrigo's Restaurants (Pvt) Ltd - Chirath Devasurendra and Chief Operating Officer, Cyril Rodrigo's Restaurants (Pvt) Ltd - Kanishka Sumithrarachchi

Cyril Rodrigo’s Restaurants (Pvt) Ltd (Green Cabin) has expanded its presence in Sri Lanka’s hospitality and events sector through a strategic partnership with Havelock City to manage and operate its banquet facilities, introducing ‘Havelock City Banquets by Green Cabin’. The collaboration brings together Havelock City’s premium event infrastructure and Green Cabin’s expertise in catering, hospitality, creating an integrated offering for weddings, corporate functions, private celebrations, and large-scale social events in Colombo.

The partnership represents a significant milestone in Green Cabin’s broader growth strategy as the company continues to diversify its hospitality portfolio beyond its traditional restaurant and bakery operations. Under the new arrangement, Green Cabin will serve as the exclusive catering partner for all events hosted at the venue, delivering end-to-end culinary and hospitality services supported by decades of operational expertise.

As demand continues to grow for professionally managed event spaces that combine convenience, quality service, and premium dining experiences, ‘Havelock City Banquets by Green Cabin’ aims to address an increasingly sophisticated market seeking seamless event execution under a single trusted provider.

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Investor sentiment dips amid mixed signals from West Asian peace bid

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CSE investor sentiment dropped yesterday amid what seemed to be an initial lack of clarity over the signing of the ceasefire agreement between the US and Iran, market analysts said.

Amid those developments both indices moved downward. The All Share Price Index went down by 88.08 points while the S and P SL20 declined by 4.35 points.

Turnover stood at Rs 1.86 billion with five crossings. NDB 796,000 shares crossed for Rs 87.6 million and its shares traded at Rs 110, Dialog Axiata 500,000 shares crossed to the tune of Rs 23 million; its shares traded at Rs 46, Singer SriLanka 300,000 shares crossed to the tune of Rs 22.8 million; its shares sold at Rs 76.10, Sampath Bank 150,000 shares crossed for Rs 21.8 million; its share s traded at Rs 145 and CIC Holdings 625,000 shares crossed for Rs 20 million; its shares traded at Rs 32.

In the retail market companies that mainly contributed to the turnover were; Hemas Holdings Rs 281 million (8.6 million shares traded), Dialog Rs 127 million (2.8 million shares traded), NDB Rs 101 million (916,000 shares traded), JKH Rs 62 million (three million shares traded), Lanka Realty Investments Rs 55 million (948,000 shares traded), Commercial Bank Rs 52 million (248,000 shares traded) and Central Finance Rs 40 million (177,000 shares traded). During the day 75.6 million share volumes changed hands in 18167 transactions.

It is said banking sector counters, especially NDB and Sampath Bank, performed well while telecom sector counters, especially Dialog, were also active at the floor. Manufacturing sector, especially JKH, performed well too.

Yesterday the rupee was quoted at Rs 333.50/334.00 to the US dollar in the spot market from Rs 333.90/334.20 the previous day, while bond yields were down further as the market continued to rally, dealers said.

The telegraphic transfer rate for Sri Lanka’s rupee against the US dollar was 329.50 buying, Rs 338.50 selling; the euro was Rs 374.8506 selling, Rs 388.7676 buying; and the pound was Rs 433.7044 buying, Rs 447.7500 selling.

By Hiran H. Senewiratne

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