Business
Fitch Ratings expect another interest rate cut before end-2023
‘Downside risks to banks are easing’
‘Sri Lanka still remains dependent on official financing sources’
‘Normalising relationship with foreign creditors may result in a ratings upgrade’
by Sanath Nanayakkare
The Central Bank of Sri Lanka (CBSL) which cut the standing deposit facility rate by a cumulative 350bp since January 2023 is expected to go for another rate cut before end-2023, Fitch Ratings said in a report released on 28 Sep. 2023.
“The downside risks to banks are easing. The exclusion of banks’ holdings of treasury securities from the DDO has alleviated some of the pressure on their capital positions from weakening loan quality and rupee depreciation as well as any immediate funding and liquidity stresses. We believe any incremental risk to the banks’ capital from foreign currency debt restructuring is likely to be manageable given their limited exposure to the defaulted sovereign bonds (3.6% of their combined total assets at end-1H23) and high provision coverage.
The Fitch report mainly dealt on the upgrading of Sri Lanka’s LongTerm Local-Currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) to ‘CCC-‘ from ‘RD’ (Restricted Default).
” The upgrade of Sri Lanka’s Long-Term Local-Currency IDR to ‘CCC-‘ reflects the completion of the local-currency portion of Sri Lanka’s domestic debt optimisation (DDO) plan, launched in July 2023, following the exchange of the Central Bank of Sri Lanka’s (CBSL) treasury bills and provisional advance into new treasury bonds and bills on 21 September 2023″, Fitch said.
“We assume the debt restructuring will lower Sri Lanka’s gross financing needs over the medium term, in line with the targets under the IMF’s Extended Fund Facility, and support an improvement in the country’s debt metrics over time. Local-currency restructuring could accelerate progress towards the restructuring of external debt,” they said.
The following are some extracts from the report: “General government debt and the interest costs faced by the government will remain high, despite the debt restructuring. Sri Lanka’s gross general government debt-to-GDP ratio is set to fall only gradually to just above 100% of GDP by 2028, from 128% of GDP in 2022, according to IMF programme forecasts published in March 2023, which incorporated a local- and foreign-currency debt restructuring scenario. The IMF scenario forecast the government interest-to- revenue ratio will decline to 42% by 2028, from over 70% in 2022.”
“The authorities expect the completion of the local-currency debt exchange to lower Sri Lanka’s gross government financing needs (GFN)/GDP by about 1.5pp over 2027-2032, according to documents published in July. External debt restructuring, which authorities expect to reduce GFN by an additional 2.6pp, remains critical to achieving the target of reducing GFN below 13% by 2027-2032, from 34% in 2022.”
“We believe IMF programme implementation, in particular fiscal measures, will be central to achieving debt sustainability. The risks remain significant, in our view, as a record of weak revenue generation presents challenges to achieving a faster reduction in the budget deficit and the general government debt-to-GDP ratio.”
“Authorities have taken several tax measures since May 2022 to improve revenue collection, including raising the corporate income tax rate to 30% from 24%, increasing the VAT rate to 15% from 8%, and raising fuel excise taxes. This resulted in revenue collection rising 43% yoy in 1H23. Additional measures in the pipeline include removing product-specific VAT exemptions before 2024 and introducing a property tax before 2025.”
“Sri Lanka’s foreign-exchange (FX) reserves have been improving, with gross FX reserves rising to USD3.6 billion in August 2023, from USD1.9 billion at end-2022, partly the result of IMF disbursements and suspension of external debt servicing. However, without access to international capital markets, the sovereign remains dependent on official financing sources.”
We expect a gradual pick-up in exports in 2024-2025 after a contraction in 2023. Overseas worker remittance inflows are also rising. We therefore expect the current account deficit to stabilise at 1.6% of GDP over 2024-2025.”
“The sovereign remains in default on foreign currency obligations and has initiated a debt restructuring with official and private external creditors. The Ministry of Finance’s statement on 12 April 2022 said it had suspended normal debt servicing of several categories of external debt, including bonds issued in international capital markets, foreign currency-denominated loans and credit facilities with commercial banks and institutional lenders.”
“Completion of the foreign-currency commercial debt restructuring that Fitch judges to have normalised the relationship with private-sector creditors may result in an upgrade.”
Business
Redefining Industry Standards: Home Lands Group Emerges as Sri Lanka’s Premier Force in Lifestyle and Developer Leadership
At a time when Sri Lanka’s property landscape is experiencing rapid transformation, one organisation continues to define the direction of the market through scale, innovation, and an unwavering commitment to quality. At the 2025 PropertyGuru Asia Property Awards (Sri Lanka), the Home Lands Group of Companies maintained its place at the peak of the industry, acquiring two of the most influential awards of the year: Best Developer for the Group and Best Lifestyle Developer for Home Lands Skyline (Private) Limited.
These distinctions signify more than just project-level success. They reflect the organisation’s leadership in shaping how Sri Lankans aspire to live, work, and invest.
The Home Lands Group has built a broad presence throughout Sri Lanka’s most active corridors, from the rapidly evolving suburbs of Colombo to the developing lifestyle hubs of Negombo, Malabe, and Kahathuduwa, guided by extensive market research. The Group has transformed its in-depth knowledge of the property market into a portfolio of assets embodying superior residential living experiences, supported by strategically located branches that deliver an integrated suite of real estate services for buyers nationwide.
Home Lands Skyline, the Group’s flagship development arm and the 2025 Best Lifestyle Developer, is responsible for this on-ground reach. The company was commended for shaping communities through visionary residential environments and for its ability to combine cutting-edge sustainability with expansive lifestyle amenities. With 19 completed projects, including the largest integrated golf community in Sri Lanka and nine sustainable developments, Home Lands Skyline keeps raising the bar for efficiency, design, and placemaking.
Both ambition and operational strength are evident in its recent accomplishments. The company completed a number of landmark projects such as Elixia 3C’s Apartments, Santorini Resort Apartments & Residencies, and the 1,200-unit Canterbury Golf Resort Apartments & Residencies, which has more than 50 resort amenities that meet international standards and the nation’s first day-and-night golf course. In addition, the Group’s remarkable 58% market share earned it the title of Sri Lanka’s Most Preferred Residential Real Estate Brand in the RIU Brand Health Survey.
This growth is supported by a sustainability-first philosophy. The company incorporates environmental responsibility into every stage of development, from modular construction, renewable energy integration, and ethical sourcing throughout its supply chain to passive design principles that improve natural light and ventilation. This dedication is demonstrated by its Platinum Award at the CIOB Green Awards 2024.
The Home Lands Group is at the forefront of creating new lifestyle expectations as demand for well-planned, resort-style communities rises. In addition to confirming past achievements, the Group’s 2025 victories at the PropertyGuru Asia Property Awards (Sri Lanka) indicate a trajectory of ongoing leadership, positioning it as a transformative force in the future of Sri Lankan real estate.
Business
Cheaper credit expected to drive Sri Lanka’s business landscape in 2026
The opening weeks of 2026 are offering a glimmer of cautious hope for the business community weary from years of economic turbulence and steep financing costs. The Central Bank’s latest weekly economic indicators signal more than just macroeconomic stability. They point to early signs of a long-awaited trend; a measurable dip in borrowing costs.
“If sustained, this shift could transform steady growth into a robust, investment-led expansion,” a senior economist told The Island Financial Review.
The benchmark Average Weighted Prime Lending Rate (AWPR) declined by 21 basis points to 8.98% for the week ending 16 January, according to the Central Bank.
“For entrepreneurs and CEOs, this is not just another statistic. It could mean the difference between postponing an expansion and hiring new staff. Across boardrooms, the hope is that this marks the start of a sustained downward trend that holds through 2026,” he said.
When asked about the instances where Treasury Bills are not fully subscribed by the investors, he replied,” Treasury Bill yields remained broadly stable, with only minimal movement across 91-day, 182-day, and 364-day tenors. Strong demand was clear, with the latest T-Bill auction oversubscribed by about 3.5 times. This sovereign-level stability creates room for the gradual easing of commercial lending rates, allowing the Central Bank to nurture a more growth-supportive monetary policy.”
Replying to a question on how he views the inflation numbers in this context, he said, “The year-on-year increase in the National Consumer Price Index stood at a manageable 2.4% in November, with core inflation at 2.2%. Such an environment should allow interest rates to fall without sparking a price spiral. For businesses, it means the real cost of borrowing adjusted for inflation, and it is becoming more favourable for them. While consumers still face weekly price shifts in vegetables and fish, the broader disinflation trend gives policymakers leeway to keep credit affordable.”
Referring to the growth trajectory, he mentioned, “With GDP growth provisionally at 5.4% in the third quarter of 2025 and Purchasing Managers’ Indices signalling expansion in both manufacturing and services, the economy is in a growth phase. However, to accelerate this momentum businesses need capital at lower cost to modernise machinery, boost export capacity, and spur innovation. Affordable credit is, therefore, not merely helpful, it is essential to shift growth into a higher gear.”
In conclusion , he said,” The coming months will be watched closely, because for Sri Lankan businesses, a sustained decline in borrowing costs isn’t just an indicator; it’s the foundation for growth. There’s hope that this easing in the cost of money will prevail through most of the year.”
By Sanath Nanayakkare ✍️
Business
Mercantile Investments expands to 90 branches, backed by strong growth
Mercantile Investments & Finance PLC has expanded its national footprint to 90 branches with a new opening in Tangalle, reinforcing its commitment to community accessibility. The trusted non-bank financial institution, with over 60 years of service, now supports diverse communities across Sri Lanka with leasing, deposits, gold loans, and tailored lending.
This physical expansion aligns with significant financial growth. The company recently surpassed an LKR 100 billion asset base, with its lending portfolio doubling to Rs. 75 billion and deposits growing to Rs. 51 billion, reflecting strong customer trust. It maintains a low NPL ratio of 4.65%.
Chief Operating Officer Laksanda Gunawardena stated the branch network is vital for building trust, complemented by ongoing digital investments. Managing Director Gerard Ondaatjie linked the growth to six decades of safeguarding depositor interests.
With strategic plans extending to 2027, Mercantile Investments aims to convert its scale into sustained competitive advantage, supporting both customers and Sri Lanka’s economic progress.
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