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Fitch Ratings expect another interest rate cut before end-2023

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‘Downside risks to banks are easing’

 ‘Sri Lanka still remains dependent on official financing sources’

 ‘Normalising relationship with foreign creditors may result in a ratings upgrade’

by Sanath Nanayakkare

The Central Bank of Sri Lanka (CBSL) which cut the standing deposit facility rate by a cumulative 350bp since January 2023 is expected to go for another rate cut before end-2023, Fitch Ratings said in a report released on 28 Sep. 2023.

“The downside risks to banks are easing. The exclusion of banks’ holdings of treasury securities from the DDO has alleviated some of the pressure on their capital positions from weakening loan quality and rupee depreciation as well as any immediate funding and liquidity stresses. We believe any incremental risk to the banks’ capital from foreign currency debt restructuring is likely to be manageable given their limited exposure to the defaulted sovereign bonds (3.6% of their combined total assets at end-1H23) and high provision coverage.

The Fitch report mainly dealt on the upgrading of Sri Lanka’s LongTerm Local-Currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) to ‘CCC-‘ from ‘RD’ (Restricted Default).

” The upgrade of Sri Lanka’s Long-Term Local-Currency IDR to ‘CCC-‘ reflects the completion of the local-currency portion of Sri Lanka’s domestic debt optimisation (DDO) plan, launched in July 2023, following the exchange of the Central Bank of Sri Lanka’s (CBSL) treasury bills and provisional advance into new treasury bonds and bills on 21 September 2023″, Fitch said.

“We assume the debt restructuring will lower Sri Lanka’s gross financing needs over the medium term, in line with the targets under the IMF’s Extended Fund Facility, and support an improvement in the country’s debt metrics over time. Local-currency restructuring could accelerate progress towards the restructuring of external debt,” they said.

The following are some extracts from the report: “General government debt and the interest costs faced by the government will remain high, despite the debt restructuring. Sri Lanka’s gross general government debt-to-GDP ratio is set to fall only gradually to just above 100% of GDP by 2028, from 128% of GDP in 2022, according to IMF programme forecasts published in March 2023, which incorporated a local- and foreign-currency debt restructuring scenario. The IMF scenario forecast the government interest-to- revenue ratio will decline to 42% by 2028, from over 70% in 2022.”

“The authorities expect the completion of the local-currency debt exchange to lower Sri Lanka’s gross government financing needs (GFN)/GDP by about 1.5pp over 2027-2032, according to documents published in July. External debt restructuring, which authorities expect to reduce GFN by an additional 2.6pp, remains critical to achieving the target of reducing GFN below 13% by 2027-2032, from 34% in 2022.”

“We believe IMF programme implementation, in particular fiscal measures, will be central to achieving debt sustainability. The risks remain significant, in our view, as a record of weak revenue generation presents challenges to achieving a faster reduction in the budget deficit and the general government debt-to-GDP ratio.”

“Authorities have taken several tax measures since May 2022 to improve revenue collection, including raising the corporate income tax rate to 30% from 24%, increasing the VAT rate to 15% from 8%, and raising fuel excise taxes. This resulted in revenue collection rising 43% yoy in 1H23. Additional measures in the pipeline include removing product-specific VAT exemptions before 2024 and introducing a property tax before 2025.”

“Sri Lanka’s foreign-exchange (FX) reserves have been improving, with gross FX reserves rising to USD3.6 billion in August 2023, from USD1.9 billion at end-2022, partly the result of IMF disbursements and suspension of external debt servicing. However, without access to international capital markets, the sovereign remains dependent on official financing sources.”

We expect a gradual pick-up in exports in 2024-2025 after a contraction in 2023. Overseas worker remittance inflows are also rising. We therefore expect the current account deficit to stabilise at 1.6% of GDP over 2024-2025.”

“The sovereign remains in default on foreign currency obligations and has initiated a debt restructuring with official and private external creditors. The Ministry of Finance’s statement on 12 April 2022 said it had suspended normal debt servicing of several categories of external debt, including bonds issued in international capital markets, foreign currency-denominated loans and credit facilities with commercial banks and institutional lenders.”

“Completion of the foreign-currency commercial debt restructuring that Fitch judges to have normalised the relationship with private-sector creditors may result in an upgrade.”



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ROK Navy ship’s visit to Colombo underscores bilateral maritime diplomacy

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The arrival of ROKS Kang Gam Chan was graced by guests, including Ambassador Miyon Lee of the Republic of Korea, Sri Lanka’s Deputy Minister of Defence Major General (Retd.) K.P. Aruna Jayasekara, and senior commanders from Sri Lanka’s Army, Navy, and Air Force.

Marking a significant milestone in maritime diplomacy, the Republic of Korea Navy’s 44th Escort Task Group (ETG), led by the warship ROKS Kang Gam Chan, made a ceremonial port call at Colombo Port on April 22, 2025. The visit underscored the strengthening of naval ties and regional cooperation between Korea and Sri Lanka.

At the heart of the visit was a strong message of strategic collaboration and regional security. Captain Kwon Yong Gu, Commanding Officer of ROKS Kang Gam Chan and Commander of the 44th ETG, expressed his gratitude for the warm reception extended by Sri Lanka. In his address, Captain Kwon highlighted the mission of the ETG and its vital role in enhancing maritime stability.

“This visit is not only a symbol of our enduring friendship with Sri Lanka, but also a reaffirmation of our shared commitment to regional peace and stability,” said Captain Kwon.

“The 44th ETG plays a pivotal role in promoting maritime security and ensuring freedom of navigation across critical waterways, a mission that resonates with the broader goals of the international community,” he stated.

The port call was the second by a Republic of Korea Navy ship in Sri Lanka in less than two years, reflecting the growing importance of naval cooperation between the two countries. The ETG, deployed regularly to high-risk zones including the Gulf of Aden and Gulf of Oman, conducts operations that combat piracy and safeguard global shipping routes.

Korean Ambassador Miyon Lee also emphasised the diplomatic dimension of the visit, noting that such exchanges serve as meaningful platforms to deepen bilateral relations. “This is not just a naval visit—it is a testament to the close ties Korea shares with Sri Lanka, both strategically and culturally,” she said.

In a celebration of cultural diplomacy, the Korean Embassy and the 44th ETG jointly hosted a K-culture event aboard the ship. Sri Lankan naval officers and local guests were treated to Korean delicacies, a Taekwondo demonstration, and a K-pop performance, showcasing Korea’s rich cultural heritage and fostering mutual understanding.

As ROKS Kang Gam Chan continues its mission in the Indian Ocean region, its port call in Colombo stands as a reminder of the increasing importance of cooperative maritime partnerships in securing global peace and prosperity.

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Lolc Holdings celebrates four Mba 2025 victories

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Demonstrating the strength of talent, perseverance, and a thriving sports culture across its diverse subsidiaries, LOLC Holdings PLC delivered an exceptional performance at the 41st Mercantile Badminton Association (MBA) Novices Badminton Championship 2025. Held at the MBA Indoor Courts in Colombo from 22nd to 30th of March 2025, the championship attracted over 400 players from 52 distinguished corporates across Sri Lanka, making it one of the most competitive inter-organizational sporting events of the year.

Among the standout achievements was the Women’s Doubles Championship in the Open Category, won by Chamali Botheju of LOLC Finance and Keshini Devindi from Browns IT. The Veteran Mixed Doubles title was claimed by Sanjeewa Kularathna and Gayani Neranjala Senarathne, both representing LOLC Finance. In the Masters Over-50 Men’s Doubles category, Suresh Perera from LOLC Factors and Jayakodi Arachchige Palitha from Browns Plantations earned the position of runners-up. Adding to the accolades, Gayani Neranjala Senarathne also secured third place in the Veteran Women’s Singles, further reinforcing the depth of talent within the team.

The Group’s support for sporting excellence is strategic. By encouraging a culture that balances performance with personal passion, LOLC Holdings endorses its commitment to holistic employee well-being. The presence of a competitive yet collaborative sports culture within the Group allows employees to thrive, build camaraderie, and develop leadership and resilience in a unique setting.

To honour the victorious team, Group Managing Director, Mr. Kapila Jayawardena, together with the Group Chief Human Resource Officer, Mr. Pradeep Uluwaduge, met with all the winners along with the team’s captain, Shashika Perera encouraging sports and wellness across its Group companies.

Speaking on the significance of the achievement, Mr. Pradeep Uluwaduge stated, “This victory represents more than trophies for us, it reflects the spirit of unity, resilience, and potential that exists within our people. At LOLC, we are committed to building a workplace where personal passions are encouraged, and hidden talents are brought to light. By supporting our team members to compete on national platforms like this, we ensure that every individual has the chance to thrive, not just professionally, but personally too.”

LOLC Holdings remains steadfast in its vision of empowering its workforce through strategic investments in people-centric initiatives, especially those that promote wellness, teamwork, and personal growth. With such momentum, the Group looks forward to nurturing even more champions in the years to come, both on and off the field.

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Strategic meeting strengthens Sri Lanka-Saudi Arabia trade and entrepreneurship ties

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Omar Lebbe Ameer Ajwad, Sri Lanka’s Ambassador to Saudi Arabia, and Mohammed Munzir, Corporate Relationship Manager at Aljabr Finance Company, met at the Sri Lankan Embassy in Riyadh to discuss strengthening bilateral trade and entrepreneurship development between the two nations.

The discussions centered on advancing Sri Lankan entrepreneurship, addressing key challenges, and exploring new business opportunities. A major outcome of the meeting was the agreement to establish the Sri Lankan Business Forum in Saudi Arabia’s Eastern Region, a first-of-its-kind initiative designed to empower Sri Lankan entrepreneurs, support startups, and create employment opportunities for the Sri Lankan community in the region. This collaboration marks a significant step in deepening economic cooperation between Sri Lanka and Saudi Arabia.

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