Eastern Europe – theatre of a new Cold War

The tens of thousands of restive refugees gathering on the Belarus-Poland border currently are at the heart of a new Cold War between the West and Russia, although for these mainly Southern migrants getting to Western Europe is mainly a matter of life and death, with international politics counting very little for them. The countries of origin of these refugees provide some clues as to what is driving them to take their lives into their hands in these desperate efforts to get to what seem to be for them oases of relief in their conflict-ridden worlds. The majority of them are reportedly from Syria, Iraq, Afghanistan and Africa.

In other words, the refugees’ immediate need is to escape conditions at home that are intolerable, although there could be among them a sizeable number of economic refugees hankering after the proverbial pot of gold. But this is a huge humanitarian crisis by itself and the international TV footage tells the story. There are entire families among these escapees, with women, children and infants too figuring prominently among them. Reports said that a ‘package tour’ to Europe cost each refugee $ 4000. However, the farthest they got was the extensive, dense forests on the Belarus-Poland border. They were abandoned in these hazard-filled regions by their tour organizers who made a quick getaway once they unburdened themselves of their human merchandize.

However, least did the refugees expect to be pawns in an East-West tug-of-war, which is their condition at present. It seems that Belarus President Alexander Lukashenko is having no hesitation in providing safe passage through his country for the refugees up to the Polish border. His game plan, reportedly, is to flood Wester Europe, particularly Germany, with refugees in an effort to create a humanitarian crisis in Europe. This is a near repeat of what happened a few years ago at the height of the Syrian bloodletting, when Germany was saddled with a daunting influx of refugees.

But this time around, the international political implications of the refugee influx into Europe could be of a greater magnitude. We now have a veritable recreation of the Cold War politics of yesteryear with Russia reportedly backing Belarus in its efforts to set the stage for a refugee crisis in Europe. Besides, Russia is said to be initiating troop movements close to Eastern Ukraine in a power-projection move that amounts to challenging Western influence in the region.

While Belarus’ grouse with Western Europe is that the latter clamped sanctions on it on account of its human rights record, Russia sees in Belarus’ standoff with Europe an opportunity to intervene to blunt US and NATO influence in the Eastern European theatre. It is a species of proxy war and it must be remembered the latter format of war was common during the bygone Cold War years when the capitalist West confronted the USSR in Europe and beyond for the furtherance of power and influence. This time around, however, Poland, through which the refugees are intending to get to Western Europe, is with the West by virtue of the fact that it is an EU member country.

Accordingly, Belarus and Russia are having a common interest in destabilizing Europe and the means through which they are hoping to achieve this is via the refugee influx. However, what Eastern Europe is having on its hands now is a humanitarian crisis which calls for sensitive, empathetic handling. The onus is on the UN to highlight this humanitarian dimension and to induce all relevant internal and external actors to see the crisis in this light, with a view to easing the hardships of the refugees who are, among other things, suffering in near-freezing temperatures.

The fact that the South is continuing to produce refugees and asylum seekers in huge numbers should set the international community thinking. The fundamental international fault line between a North that is powerful in every conceivable respect and a South that is continuing to be weak and vulnerable in most ways that matter, which has been characteristic of the world system since World War 11, is basically continuing, with some differences which are not mattering very much from particularly the human wellbeing viewpoint.

The continuing refugee and asylum seeker influx from the South to the North indicates that although it is decades since Southern ruling elites took over from their Western colonial masters, the socio-economic and political conditions in the South are remaining deplorable from a development standpoint. Repression and oppression of people are continuing unabated and the latter, driven to desperation, are compelled to seek refuge in sections of the North, but there is no guarantee that the lot of the people will be any better in the North. The travails of refugees on the Belarus-Poland border are just one case in point.

Although there were expectations in some international quarters that the Coronavirus pandemic would have had a sobering impact on the comparatively privileged and powerful North, leading it to think of ways of empowering the South, to make the latter less vulnerable to externally-induced shocks emanating from economic and natural forces, this has not come to pass. For example, sections of the North are fending well for themselves in the health sphere currently, but the South has been left to lag behind. Covid vaccinations are a case in point.

Apparently, the need is great to relaunch the North-South Dialogue which was allowed to lapse over the years. This will require the South to cooperate very closely in efforts to further its legitimate interests. For instance, the recent COP26 summit did well to highlight some areas in which international collaborative efforts could yield sizeable benefits but the South would need to work unitedly towards its interests in this context. A coming together of the South is an urgent need.

The North needs to consider it to be in its interests to ensure political and economic stability in the South. Refugees and illegal migrants flooding Northern countries from the South, for example, trigger innumerable law and order and other problems for the receiving countries. Such issues are already manifesting on the Belarus-Polish border. This calls for a shunning of Realpolitik by Northern countries in their ties with each other.