Connect with us

Features

Disaster Management and The Power of Science

Published

on

Rainfall Over Sri Lanka 27-29 November 2025 (Source: Sri Lanka Department of Meteorology)

The key to managing future disasters is through the smart utilisation of science

Living With Nature

As Sri Lanka has witnessed through the intense impact of Tropical Cyclone Ditwah, the power of nature is there for all to see, feel, hear, and grieve over. The hubris of humanity deludes us. We cannot control nature in its most powerful manifestation. The lesson we should learn is to live with nature, listen to nature, and learn from nature. The most effective method of managing disasters, mitigating disasters, or even avoiding disasters is to smartly apply the science that is readily available to all. Smart science utilisation educates all about the magnitude, scale, duration and likely outcomes of natural phenomena. This approach feeds into developing a culture of living with nature, planning our country with nature in mind, training the scientists we need, strengthening scientific and disaster management departments and institutions, joining up decision makers and scientists, and dramatically increasing the scientific awareness of the whole population. This is a sure-fire way of reducing the devastation of potential disasters. BUT: it’s a hard road, a difficult road, and one that requires the sustainability of a safe nation focus, decade after decade. This article focuses briefly on the science of cyclones/storms, rivers, and landslides: the three natural phenomena that bring the most frequent disasters to Sri Lanka.

Worldwide Cyclone Paths

Bay of Bengal Cyclone Paths

Cyclone Ditwah and Sri Lanka (Source https://zoom.earth/storms/ditwah-2025)

Tropical Cyclone

Tropical Cyclones originate between latitudes 10 degrees north and south of the equator. They form through heat interactions of warm surface ocean waters and the atmosphere. Cyclones move from the equator to the north and south, seeking the warmest parts of the ocean to sustain and build their formation. Cyclones are heat-seekers and can only survive while warm surface ocean waters continuously feed intense convection systems that create enormous spiral clouds rotating around a central column. Thankfully, most cyclones are born and die harmlessly within ocean space. But when they make landfall they release their pent-up energies in the form of winds, rain, and storm surges (oceans can be sucked up like tsunamis by intensely low-atmospheric pressures associated with cyclones). The most powerful cyclones generate winds of 300 to >400km/hour, air pressures as low as 870mb, total rainfalls of over 6m, and highest rainfall intensities of 1.14m/24 hours and >400mm/hour. Cyclones mainly affect countries located between latitudes 10 and 30 degrees north and south of the equator. Regions such as East Asia, the Caribbean/Gulf of Mexico and Indian/Pacific Ocean Islands are the most impacted cyclone areas. Sri Lanka is lucky, as relatively few cyclones make landfall, tending to move further north before they strike.

Cyclone Ditwah and Sri Lanka

Cyclone Ditwah was rapidly born SW of Sri Lanka, growing from a meteorological depression on the 26th of November 2025. It moved east and north crossing Sri Lanka over the next few days, retaining a low-pressure identity until December 3rd. It formed through the presence of warm ocean around Sri Lanka and concurrent atmospheric conditionalities.

Bay of Bengal Cyclone Paths (source Monas et al., Tropical Cyclone Research & Review, 2022)

Rainfall Over Sri Lanka 27-29 November 2025

The slow-moving nature of Cyclone Ditwah significantly increased its impacts. As cyclones go, wind speeds were on the low side (50-90km/hour) and the air pressure relatively high (1002 mb). Ditwah did, however, release large amounts of rainfall over 2-3 days of protracted rainfall, and over large areas of Sri Lanka. Total rainfalls of 150-500mm occurred alongside rainfall intensities of 300mm/24 hours. A similar slow-moving tropical depression hung around the mountains of Guadalcanal, Solomon Islands, for several days during April 2014, releasing over 700mm of rainfall, which created severe flooding in the national capital town of Honiara.

Storms and Monsoons

Cyclones are examples of extreme storms. Storms are a more frequent and regular weather phenomenon within Sri Lanka. Whatever label is given to weather systems the important data we need for managing rain hazards includes the timing and duration of storms, their predictability, the earliest warning signs we can detect, likely wind speeds and durations, rainfall amounts and distribution, and areas most likely to be affected by storms.

Sri Lankan Monsoons

Sri Lankan Monsoons (Source Ceylon Tour Guide Drivers)

Sri Lanka’s meteorological patterns are well known and documented by the SL Department of Meteorology and other sources. The drivers, durations, weather patterns, and areas affected by the two monsoons (from the southwest and northeast at different times of the year) are common knowledge. Furthermore, incidents of disasters caused by intense storms have produced a plethora of data that can be used to inform disaster management and planning. The science of meteorology has been revolutionized over the past decades through the advent of sophisticated satellite, airborne, and ground weather sensors, alongside big-data multiple-scenario mega-computer modelling capabilities, and an abundance of highly trained meteorological scientists. The recognition of climate change, particularly since the late 1990s, has led to a quantum leap in in research and financial investments, and hardware/software/ scientific advances. We now know our weather systems and the physics of the atmosphere with an enviable level of prediction/modelling when viewed through the eyes of the 1960/70s or 80s generations

Whither the Weather Data: what’s the Point?

There is no substantial reason or excuse why countries, regions, communities, scientists, and decision-makers cannot turn all the amazing weather data and capability into tools and practical applications to mitigate future disasters. The science is so smart and powerful that a failure to use its helpful essence is plain foolishness. The data, and approach suggested, as we will see below, with river and landslide science, can undoubtedly deliver a safer country and world. Bangladesh, a poor country with a population of 172 million is regularly hit by cyclones, storms. and high magnitude floods. Cyclone Bhola, in 1970, killed half a million people and wiped out 85% of the nations homes. And yet, this low-income nation has impressively adopted new smart disaster management ways, including integrating science, greatly reducing the impacts of disasters over time.

Allowing Rivers to Run Free

Sri Lanka River Basins

Sri Lanka has over 100 river basins, (or catchments), the largest of which (the Mahaweli) has an area of over 10,000km2. The Mahaweli River extends to over 335 km in length. Sri Lankan rivers are mostly aligned in a radial fashion, centred upon South-Central Highlands, flowing to all corners of the country. Rivers are the lifeblood of any country. They are like blood vessels in the human body. If we fail to look after rivers, environments degrade, human and animal life suffers, and disasters are heightened in magnitude.

Modern (and ancient) philosophers ask us to view rivers not as inanimate natural features, but as sentient living beings. The science of hydrology (study & understanding of water systems) enables humans to optimally manage rivers and related eco-landscape systems, and to live safely with rivers. The latest thinking is moving towards the idea of allowing rivers to run freely: for humans to adopt the principle living respectfully and safely with the vital lifeblood of any country or region.

Rivers form through rain (and snow) falling on land and organising themselves according to the physical laws of drainage. Just as we engineer drainage in our houses so that we stay dry, and channel the waters where we want them to go, nature drains our lands. Rivers will follow the easiest path they can from the highest areas of their river basins (or catchments) to the lowest point they can reach (usually the ocean, sometimes local lakes or inland seas). Rivers follow geology and topography, but also mould and shape landscapes themselves, over time.

They are fed from water reservoirs that come from the sky, from vegetation root systems, and from large underground reservoirs. Geological structures, geological bedrock and geological surface deposits all influence rivers. Gravity will dictate how water flows through any landscape.

The nature of rivers changes according to the quantity and rate of water they transport. During times of low rainfall and drought they will occupy only a small part of their channels. With heavy and intense rain, they rise and often break out of their channels flooding their hinterland (termed floodplains). The rise and fall of rivers are natural. When rivers are at their highest their sheer hydraulic power is thousands of times greater than during the quiet times. Floods have provided humans with fertile plains, regularly renewing land with fresh silt and mud, and the sapphires, garnets, and rubies Sri Lanka is famous for. Science allows us to deeply understand the nature and behaviour of rivers: why they occupy their courses, why they go dry, why they flood, how much they flood, how they erode, how they deposit, and how they can carry different sizes and volumes of material.

Modern scientific sensors can accurately map rivers, measure the rainfall within their catchments, their flow rates, and the shape and form of their river channels. Modern computer modelling can accurately predict the size, duration, time, magnitude, and likely impact of floods. Mapping of geological river deposits informs us of the extent of floods over time in any river system. Science can monitor rivers, inform us about groundwater reservoirs and health, pollution within rivers, and how human impacts are influencing river processes.

Worldwide Cyclone Paths (source Nature 2020, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41597-020-0381-2

Most rivers in the world have been engineered by humans in a wide variety of ways. Dams, canals, river re-routing, energy generation, water storage, water pumping schemes, irrigation, and industrial utilisation, are examples. Intelligent utilisation of river resources has been of great human benefit. However, as with any natural system, there is a threshold beyond which damage is caused to the arteries of the nation. River catchment (basin) development can occur with no mindfulness of river-health. Mountainsides are denuded of trees, houses and urban areas grow quickly with disregard to river-natures, the natural architecture of land and river drainage is altered so much that water run-off significantly increases, and the impact of floods increases dramatically.

Whilst humans must use river resources to sustain modern livelihoods, the wider utilisation of science to inform our activities, and the greater the adoption of the principle of allowing rivers to run free, the safer our world will be. Our rivers and ecosystems will smile widely. Simple science-informed guidance such as avoiding building houses in flood plains, caring for the slopes that feed our rivers, and limiting rapid water urban run-off can be adopted by all. The idea of ‘sponge’ cities where urban environments soak up and store water, rather than increasing run-off is catching on in Singapore, China, and Denmark.

Sri Lanka’s population growth 1871 – 2001 (https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:SL_population_ growth.png)

Carefully safeguarding, and maximising the anti-flood control potentials of the beautiful wetland network of Colombo, and the incredible intelligent irrigation systems built from over 2000 years ago in central-north Sri Lanka is essential for a future safe Sri Lanka.

The Science of Landslides

Landslides occur in different shapes and forms but essentially move material quickly downslope through the force of gravity. They can vary in size, style, and magnitude, from slow but persistent peripheral movement of surface layers, to rapid movement of large quantities of rock and surficial deposits over significant distances. One large recent earthquake in Enga province, Papua New Guinea (2024) formed from the collapse of a large part of a mountainside, burying villages and leading to the deaths of up to 2000 people. Some of the world’s largest landslides transport cubic kilometres of material, and have killed 20,000 – 200,000 in China, Venezuela, and Peru.

Landslide Prone areas in Sri Lanka

Sri Lankan landslides mostly occur within the central Highlands region and peripheral areas, particularly in the southwest.

Debris Flow Rotational Landslide (Source Utah Geological Survey)

Much of Sri Lankan geology is comprised of hard crystalline rocks called gneiss: this forms the bulk of the nation’s upstanding mountains. Whilst intrinsically a hard and strong rock, Sri Lankan gneisses are weathered deeply by a hot, humid, tropical climate. Chemical weathering breaks down bedrock, forming thick deposits of altered degraded, material, termed regolith. These deposits can be 10m-> 30m thick. They lack the intrinsic cohesive strength and structure of the gneissic bedrock from which they form. Regolith is often reddish in colour due to the presence of abundant iron hydroxides.

Debris Flow Rotational Landslide

Sri Lankan landslides are mostly termed debris flows, involving the rapid downslope movement of moderate to large volumes of surficial regolith material downslope.

The causes of landslides are well known, as are areas of landslide high-risk. Landslides occur on steep or moderate slopes, particularly within areas of high relief. Triggers for landslides include earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, and high intensity rainfall. For Sri Lanka heavy rainfall, persistent rainfall, or alternating protracted periods of heavy and/or persistent rain with contrasting drought seasons are the main landslide triggers. Persistent-protracted monsoonal rainfall can seep deeply within surface regolith material, particularly if the materials are porous and permeable (capable of soaking and transporting water within its mass, like a sponge).

When the regolith becomes sodden with water its weight increases many times, internal friction is reduced, and lubrication increased. The ever-present gravity pulls with greater force on this wet, heavy, lubricated regolith. When this gravitational force exceeds the ‘sticking’ force that binds the regolith to the mountainside, the material slips and forms a landslide. Ancient and recent landslide deposits can be geologically mapped, helping us understand where and why landslides have occurred in the past. This mapping helps us identify and locate high-risk zones. Slope strength can be monitored through slope-stress sensors. In Hong Kong, a city of millions built on steep tropical slopes, every high-risk slope is catalogued, drained of water, strengthened through engineering, and regularly monitored.

Human activities can significantly increase the risks of landslides. Any activity that reduces the stability of slopes increases the probability of landslides. Cutting down trees, steepening slopes through engineering, and retarding natural slope-drainage, will all increase the likelihood of landslides. Moving human settlement to high-risk zones increases the exposure of people to landslide risks. Human interventions can reduce landslide risks by planting trees with deep root systems on slopes, increasing the natural drainage of slopes, and monitoring slope stability through simple observations such as observing the onset or long-term occurrence of surface cracks, road and wall slippage, and cracks appearing in buildings on slopes.

Increasing urbanisation in Colombo 1995-2017 (Source https://archive.roar.media/english/life/in-the-know/urbanisation-sri-lanka-growing-pains)

Landslides are a natural phenomenon and are part of the beauty of landscape formation. They have occurred long before humans existed and will continue to do so long after humans. The science of landslides is well understood and can help us all live more safely, at lower levels of risk. It is up to us to take notice of nature and live wisely with the nature of landslides.

Demographics and Development

Whilst climate change has had numerous impacts on weather systems, particularly in increasing the capacity of clouds to hold water, and rain more intensely, along with increasing the power of winds, we cannot blame everything on climate change. In days gone by we used to blame gods, now we blame climate change. We need to adapt to climate change, full stop. There are many things we are in control of and can change. More importantly, we need to become increasingly aware of the link between demography, socio-economics, urban development, and increasing environmental risks. These phenomena are all in our hands.

For most of human history global populations numbered millions and tens of millions. By 1804 the global population reached 1 billion, 2 billion during the early twentieth century, almost 3 billion in 1950 and now over 8 billion. This rapid rise in population, together with unprecedented levels of consumerism, has stressed the earth far more than any living species has done so during the past 4 billion years.

Sri Lanka’s population growth 1871 – 2001

Sri Lanka’s population grew rapidly from 2 million in1871, 6 million in 1943, to 22 million today, although it now appears to be reaching a steady state. This rapid population growth has led to concomitant urban growth, particularly around Colombo and the southwest, together with road-ribbon development, virtually continuously for example, between Colombo and Kandy. Mass tourism adds another one or two million high- consuming visitors every year.

Increasing urbanisation in Colombo 1995-2017

Rapid, sub-optimally planned, urban development, not only leads to the rapid generation of less-attractive urban environments (that will deter visitors), but also increases the exposure of a greater number of people to environmental risks. Whilst the power and wisdom of science can produce informed plans for safety and planetary health, the competing power of the development rupee or dollar profit unfortunately wins out. Profit at the expense of nature and environmental safety.

Conclusions: the power of Science: it’s in our hands

This article clearly spells out the practical nature and the power of the science of cyclones, weather, rivers and landslides, and how it can reduce our risks and exposure to potential disasters. Cyclone Ditwah and the 2004 tsunami were clear demonstrations to Sri Lanka of the power of nature. Science informs us, educates us, helps us understand how nature works, devises early warning methods and systems, monitoring tools, and predictive advice. If we apply the science and combine this with decision-makers, government, communities, and industry, we can live with nature and develop towns cities and village sympathetically. This is our choice. It is in our hands. We can avoid placing high populations or vulnerable poor people in areas of high environmental risk. We don’t have to surface this beautiful country with unattractive, never-ending, concrete, plasterboard, and cement. We can, instead, work with natural science, with natural systems, and with nature to create a happier, safer country, in-tune with the non-human as well as the human world.

Honouring all humans and sentient beings who have suffered from Cyclone Ditwah

I express my deep condolences to all who have suffered as Cyclone Ditwah struck. Many died. Many lost their homes, possessions, and loved ones. Many suffered damage to their properties. So many birds animals, insects and sentient beings suffered. Disasters bring deep anguish. Thankfully, the Government, nation, institutions, society and the international community have recognised the level of emergency and are providing assistance in a myriad of forms. I hope that, in a small way, this article presents opportunities to reduce future suffering.

by Prof. Michael G. Petterson



Continue Reading
Advertisement
Click to comment

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Features

Why spill water and reject sunlight while burning imported fuel?

Published

on

Sri Lanka needs a fairer and more transparent approach to renewable energy

by K R Pushparanjan

Sri Lanka has spent several decades encouraging private investment in renewable energy. Small hydropower was among the earliest successes of this policy while rooftop solar has more recently enabled thousands of ordinary households and businesses to become electricity producers. These developments have reduced the country’s dependence on imported fuel, mobilised private capital for electricity generation and contributed towards a cleaner and more diversified energy system.

It is therefore difficult to reconcile these objectives with reports that renewable generators are increasingly being required to curtail production during periods of low electricity demand, particularly on Sundays, Poya days and other holidays. The question is especially relevant to run-of-river mini-hydropower, where naturally available water may simply pass downstream when generation is stopped, and to rooftop solar, where abundant midday sunshine cannot be postponed until the evening peak.

There are, of course, legitimate technical reasons why the Ceylon Electricity Board (CEB), as system operator, may occasionally have to curtail renewable generation. An electricity system must maintain a continuous balance between generation and consumption. On Sundays and holidays, industrial and commercial demand can fall considerably while solar, hydro and wind generation remain available. Certain conventional generating units may sometimes have to remain connected to provide frequency control, voltage support, operating reserves and other services essential for grid stability. Transmission constraints can also make it impossible to substitute generation in one part of the country directly for generation elsewhere.

No responsible renewable-energy producer would suggest that grid security should be compromised merely to accept every available unit of renewable electricity. However, legitimate engineering considerations should not become a blanket explanation that places curtailment decisions beyond public scrutiny.

The CEB itself describes the economic principle underlying electricity dispatch as merit-order dispatch, under which lower-cost generation is normally utilised before progressively more expensive generation. Consequently, whenever inexpensive renewable electricity is deliberately curtailed while substantially more expensive oil-fired generation continues, electricity consumers and renewable producers are entitled to ask why. If a particular thermal generating unit must remain online for frequency stability, voltage support, network security or some other technical requirement, that can be explained. If transmission congestion requires renewable generation in a particular area to be reduced, that too can be demonstrated. Transparency should strengthen technically sound decisions, not threaten them.

Mini-hydro and an unequal contractual relationship

Run-of-river mini-hydropower deserves particular consideration. Unlike reservoir hydro, most such plants have limited ability to store water. When sufficient water is available, but the plant is instructed not to generate, that water may simply bypass the turbines and continue downstream. The opportunity to produce that electricity is then lost. No imported diesel, furnace oil or coal is required to allow that water to turn a turbine, and there is no corresponding fuel-related foreign-exchange expenditure.

Sri Lanka’s mini-hydropower industry was developed largely through private investment. The CEB currently records 219 commissioned mini-hydro projects with an aggregate capacity of approximately 430 MW and acknowledges the role of government policy in encouraging private-sector development of this indigenous renewable resource.

Yet, there has always been a fundamental imbalance in the commercial relationship between the small power producer and the national purchaser. Mini-hydro projects have historically sold their electricity through the Standardised Power Purchase Agreement (SPPA). The very nature of a standardised agreement substantially limits the individual developer’s negotiating position. Published material concerning Sri Lanka’s small-power-producer framework has described the SPPA as standardized and non-negotiable.

This is hardly a negotiation between parties of equal bargaining strength. A mini-hydro developer cannot realistically reject an unfavorable provision and offer the electricity to another national grid. For much of the industry’s history there has effectively been one purchaser, leaving the developer with little practical alternative but to accept the terms offered.

The weakness of that position becomes particularly evident when curtailment occurs. A PUCSL-commissioned study has recorded that under the original SPPA there was no penalty on the CEB for not purchasing energy. The developer may have invested the capital, borrowed the money, undertaken the construction and hydrological risks, maintained the machinery and had both water and generating equipment available, yet still carry the financial loss when electricity cannot be accepted for reasons originating within the national system.

If curtailment is genuinely necessary for grid security, the plant operator may have to accept the technical instruction. It does not logically follow, however, that the entire financial consequence should automatically be imposed upon the weaker contracting party.

Germany curtails renewables too – but differently

Germany provides a useful comparison precisely because it demonstrates that renewable curtailment is sometimes unavoidable even in an advanced electricity system. With very large quantities of wind and solar generation, Germany regularly experiences transmission congestion and occasions when all available renewable electricity cannot immediately be transported to consumers.

The important difference lies in how the problem is managed. Germany operates a regulated redispatch system. European electricity-market rules require redispatch to be undertaken according to objective, transparent and non-discriminatory criteria. Conventional generation, renewable generation and storage can all form part of the process, with interventions determined by what is required to relieve network constraints safely and economically.

Equally important is the recognition that curtailment has financial consequences. Germany’s Federal Network Agency explains that affected generators and storage operators have statutory entitlements to appropriate financial compensation within the redispatch framework. Depending upon the circumstances, relevant arrangements can take account of generation expenditure, lost revenue opportunities, readiness costs, maintenance implications and costs avoided because generation was reduced. The German framework also provides balancing mechanisms intended to address the commercial position of installations affected by redispatch, including renewable generators.

The principle is worth considering in Sri Lanka. When a privately financed generator is required to sacrifice otherwise available production for the security and benefit of the national electricity system, why should that cost automatically and entirely be borne by the generator?

Germany offers another lesson that may be even more important: transparency. Through the Federal Network Agency and its SMARD electricity-market information platform, information on congestion management, renewable curtailment and conventional redispatch is publicly available. Official German figures show that renewable curtailment amounted to approximately 3.5 percent of renewable generation in 2025, meaning that more than 96 percent of renewable electricity generated reached the system and consumers.

Sri Lanka cannot simply copy Germany. The two electricity systems differ enormously in size, resources, interconnections and market structure. What can be adopted, however, are the principles of transparency, non-discrimination, accountability and fair treatment of generators affected by decisions taken for the benefit of the wider system.

What generation remained online?

Whenever significant renewable curtailment occurs in Sri Lanka, sufficient information should therefore be made publicly available to answer some straightforward questions. How many megawatts were curtailed, for how many hours, and how many megawatt-hours of renewable electricity were consequently lost? Which thermal generating units remained operational during those hours? What fuel were they using and what was their approximate generation cost? Why was each of those units technically required to remain online? Was the curtailment caused by system-wide oversupply, a local transmission constraint, frequency considerations or some other identifiable requirement? These are not unreasonable questions. If the decisions are technically and economically sound, the answers should vindicate the system operator.

The issue assumes particular importance because Sri Lanka has historically spent enormous sums purchasing thermal electricity. An Auditor General’s special audit concerning ACE Power Embilipitiya reported expenditure of approximately Rs. 59.454 billion on electricity purchased from that plant between 2016 and 2021. The audit also drew attention to transmission-system problems and the consequences of permanent solutions not being implemented in a timely manner.

This does not establish that thermal generation is unnecessary or that private thermal producers have acted improperly. Nor should allegations of corruption be made against particular parties without evidence. Nevertheless, Sri Lanka’s long history of public concern regarding procurement, governance and major public expenditure makes transparency particularly important. Large thermal power contracts, fuel purchases and capacity arrangements involve substantial sums of money. The best protection against suspicion is not secrecy but disclosure.

If expensive thermal generation genuinely has to remain online while inexpensive renewable generation is curtailed, publish the technical reason. Publish the quantities. Publish the relevant costs. Allow engineers, economists, regulators, investors and electricity consumers to examine the decision for themselves.

Rooftop solar must not become the next casualty

The same argument now applies to rooftop solar. Sri Lanka successfully encouraged households and businesses to invest their own money in solar installations. Net Metering, Net Accounting and related arrangements helped transform consumers into small-scale electricity producers and contributed substantially to the growth of distributed renewable energy. PUCSL continues to recognise Net Metering, Net Accounting and Net Plus within Sri Lanka’s rooftop-solar framework.

The rapid expansion of rooftop solar undoubtedly creates genuine technical difficulties. Solar production is concentrated around daytime hours, while Sri Lanka’s major electricity demand peak occurs later. On a sunny Sunday or holiday, solar production can therefore be substantial precisely when commercial and industrial demand is low. Distribution networks designed for one-way electricity flows may also encounter voltage and hosting-capacity limitations as increasing quantities of electricity flow back from consumers towards the grid.

But it would be fundamentally unfair to encourage citizens to invest their savings in solar energy and subsequently treat their electricity as a problem simply because the national grid has not developed quickly enough to accommodate it.

Battery energy storage offers an important part of the eventual solution. A household battery can capture surplus solar energy around midday and release it during the evening, when both the household and the national system need electricity most. PUCSL has already recognized the value of combining rooftop solar with battery storage in its evolving regulatory arrangements.

However, domestic battery storage still represents a considerable additional investment for an ordinary household. Public policy should therefore be careful not to make battery ownership an economic prerequisite for participating in rooftop solar before such systems become reasonably affordable.

Until domestic battery storage becomes economically accessible to the average household, Net Metering and Net Accounting should be preserved, strengthened and made genuinely accessible. They provide a practical bridge between today’s rapidly growing distributed solar generation and tomorrow’s electricity system in which affordable batteries, utility-scale storage, pumped hydro and sophisticated demand management can shift much more renewable energy from periods of surplus to periods of high demand.

The national grid should, during this transition, continue to perform an important balancing function. Meanwhile, policy should encourage rather than compel household batteries through appropriate time-of-use tariffs and incentives. As battery prices decline, consumers will increasingly adopt them voluntarily because the economics make sense.

The grid must evolve with renewable energy

The longer-term answer is therefore not to choose between renewable energy and grid stability. Sri Lanka needs both.

Investment is required in battery storage, pumped-storage hydro, stronger transmission and distribution networks, better renewable forecasting, modern inverter technology, sophisticated system-control facilities and demand-response programmes. Electricity tariffs can also be designed to encourage industries, commercial establishments, water pumping, electric-vehicle charging and other flexible loads to consume more electricity during periods of abundant solar production.

The electricity system must gradually become capable of moving energy not merely geographically but also across time—storing electricity when nature provides more than consumers require and releasing it when demand rises.

This is also essential for maintaining investor confidence. Private investors make renewable-energy decisions according to expected annual generation, financing costs and anticipated revenue. If a developer can spend substantial capital constructing a renewable project only to face unpredictable curtailment outside his control and without adequate compensation or contractual recourse, the investment risk increases. Eventually that risk translates into higher financing costs, higher required returns and fewer projects.

A country cannot credibly invite private investors to finance renewable energy infrastructure while retaining an overwhelmingly one-sided contractual ability to discard their output and transfer the resulting financial loss back to them.

Transparency should not frighten the CEB

Nobody should expect the CEB to compromise national grid security merely to accommodate a mini-hydro plant or rooftop-solar producer. Where curtailment is technically unavoidable, it should occur.

But “system stability” should never become a phrase that ends the discussion.

Where synchronous generation must remain operating, explain why. Where transmission congestion requires renewable curtailment, identify the constraint. Where renewable producers sacrifice available generation for the benefit of the national system, develop a fair compensation mechanism. Where expensive thermal generation remains operational while naturally available water bypasses turbines, disclose why that was the technically necessary and economically preferable decision.

Germany demonstrates that renewable curtailment and renewable-energy development are not contradictory. Even sophisticated electricity systems sometimes have to discard renewable electricity. The difference is that a mature system attempts to minimize curtailment, operates under transparent rules, publishes relevant information and recognizes the financial consequences imposed upon generators.

Sri Lanka should aspire to the same principles.

We should not encourage private investors to build mini-hydropower plants and then place them against the wall through contracts over which they have little negotiating power. We should not encourage households to spend their savings installing solar panels and later make them bear the cost of deficiencies in the electricity network. And we should certainly not discard economically usable indigenous renewable energy without a convincing explanation while scarce foreign exchange is being spent importing fuel.

Sri Lanka should not spill usable water, reject available sunlight and then burn imported fuel to produce electricity that nature was prepared to provide without a fuel bill.

The issue is not whether every unit of renewable electricity can always be accepted. Clearly it cannot. The real test is whether every unit curtailed was genuinely necessary, whether the least-cost and least-wasteful solution was chosen, whether affected producers were treated fairly, and whether the public is permitted to see the evidence.

That is not an unreasonable demand from renewable-energy producers. It is the standard of transparency, accountability and economic discipline that Sri Lanka’s electricity consumers should expect from a modern national power system.

Continue Reading

Features

‘Career of Evil’

Published

on

Tales of Mystery and Suspense 22

by Prof. Rajiva Wijesinha

I return now to J K Rowling of Harry Potter fame, writing under the pseudonym Robert Galbraith about Cormoran Strike. There are several books in this series of off-beat detective stories, featuring a private investigator who lost a leg while serving in the army, and his assistant Robin Ellacott, who had been raped when a student, with lasting psychological effects. Strike himself was the child of a rock band groupie, who had lived a sordid life, her last attachment being to a failed rock star of relatively aristocratic provenance and brutal habits.

Career of Evil is the third in the Strike series, and markedly different from the two books I read previously, the first and the fifth. Those were relatively speaking classic whodunnits, with a range of possible murderers, the solution in the end being quite unexpected but also convincing. The murderers in both cases are unhinged, but this does not become obvious until Strike has put two and two together and revealed a history of aberrant behaviour.

This novel has just a few suspects, all of them bizarre, as is made clear from the moment they are introduced. The case begins with Robin being sent a severed leg from a dead body, or rather it begins with the thoughts of the murderer who seeks revenge from Strike, which it seems he intends to achieve by first terrifying and then killing the woman he calls Strike’s Secretary. He also evinces a horrid desire to mutilate women after abusing them.

The first person Strike thinks of as a possible suspect is a member of a crime syndicate known to have sent body parts through the post, but Strike soon decides that he cannot be the perpetrator, in part because he is not likely to have known that Strike was responsible for his conviction earlier. Rather Strike is convinced it is one of three people who hate him, two of them individuals he helped to prosecute when he was in the investigating unit of the army, the third his step-father whom he suspected had killed his mother.

Unfortunately, Wardle, the policeman assigned to the case, who gets on well with Strike, is convinced it is the first person Strike had suggested, and does not seem interested in the rest, so Strike sets about trying to find out what they are up to.

They are not easy to trace, but Strike eventually tracks them down. He finds Laing’s mother in Scotland, although she is no longer able to provide any useful information. He then tracks down the mother of Laing’s first wife, Rona, whom Strike had found tied up and tortured. It was this incident that led to Laing’s conviction and imprisonment, and ultimately fuelled his hatred of Strike.

He finds the sister of the second suspect, Noel Brockbank, and learns that she and her brother were both abused as children by their stepfather. Brockbank later went on to abuse young girls himself. When Strike went to arrest him over the abuse of his stepdaughter, Brockbank attacked him with a broken bottle, and Strike knocked him out. Brockbank subsequently suffered seizures and was found to have a serious brain injury. Although Strike was initially blamed for the injury, it was later established that Brockbank had fractured his skull in a rugby match before the confrontation. Brockbank was therefore never convicted of the abuse allegations, while Strike was cleared of responsibility for his brain injury.

Strike’s third suspect is his former stepfather, Jeff Whittaker, whom he describes as unutterably filthy and abusive, yet strangely attractive to women. When Strike tracks him down, he finds Whittaker living with Stephanie, a woman who supports him with what she earns as a sex worker. Despite being abused by Whittaker, she remains devoted to him.

In his musings, the killer refers to the woman he lives with as “It”, suggesting that he could be Whittaker, who lives off Stephanie’s earnings. But when Robin is attacked by a man dressed differently from Whittaker, whom she had seen shortly before, it becomes clear that Whittaker is not the killer. Laing, the first of Strike’s three suspects, is also apparently ruled out when Robin sees him on crutches and learns that he is claiming disability benefits. Strike and Robin therefore concentrate on the third suspect, Noel Brockbank, whom they eventually trace to a home he shares with his girlfriend, Alyssa, and her two young daughters. Robin has seen the younger girl and becomes increasingly worried about what Brockbank might do to her. Although Strike has ordered her to leave Brockbank alone, Robin continues investigating because of her concern for the child. She eventually discovers that Brockbank has been sexually abusing the older of the two girls.

Meanwhile, Strike and Robin manage to identify the girl whose leg was sent to the agency. Among the bizarre letters Strike had received in the past was one from a young woman who fantasizes about having her healthy leg amputated and believed that Strike had deliberately had his own leg removed. Robin realises that the girl was suffering from a condition known as body integrity identity disorder, or BIID, in which a person has a persistent desire to have a healthy limb or other body part removed. Strike simply ignored the letter, unaware that the girl was suffering from a recognised condition and that her request was serious. The girl, Kelsey Platt, is subsequently found to have been murdered, and the police discover forged letters apparently written by Strike in response to her.

Wardle has his suspicions of the man married to the girl’s sister, with whom she had lived. Strike thinks this absurd, and it turns out that the man has an alibi for the time of the murder, but Strike does go along when the sister asks to see him and is overwhelmed by the sense of grief she and her husband evince.

The girl is evidently a godsend to the murderer, whose desire to remove body parts could not be controlled. He chops fingers off a girl he almost kills, and then removes the nose and ears of a girl he kills soon afterwards. And previously he had sent Robin the toe of the girl whose leg had been sent earlier.

All this horror can seem over the top, and one may wonder how Rowling could bring herself to wallow in such grim material. But perhaps she felt very strongly about the abuse women were subject to, and though her depiction of the way women played into the hands of abusive men seems excessive, she feels that awareness of that increases the need for support groups and other mechanisms to provide safety nets.

But there is also another side to the novel, namely the relationship between Strike and his partner Robin, which verges on the romantic though neither wishes to move on the matter. Strike feels diffident about taking advantage of his position as her employer, while Robin is engaged to a young man she has known for years, and whom she was virtually engaged to while at university. He has stood by her after the rape, when she could barely face society, and she finally decides to accept him and they are planning their wedding at the beginning of this book. But she finds that he is jealous of Strike, and hence his resentment of her commitment to her work, she breaks off the relationship when they are staying with her parents to finalize arrangements for the wedding.

But they still share a flat, and given the threat looming over her she cannot really move to live by herself. And gradually his misery wears her determination down, and she agrees again to marry him. The novel ends with their wedding, which Strike just manages to get to, causing her to beam, though she ‘had not once smiled in the entire service’.

But they still share a flat, and with the threat hanging over her, Robin cannot really move out and live by herself. Gradually, Matthew’s misery wears down her determination, and she agrees to marry him after all. The novel ends with their wedding. Strike arrives just in time, battered and bloodied after his confrontation with the killer. Robin has not smiled once during the ceremony, but when she sees Strike, she suddenly beams.

Before that, in the kerfuffle caused by Robin’s attempt to rescue the children of the woman Brockbank was living with, Strike sacks her. This turns out to be useful to him, because he subsequently enlists the children’s mother, Alyssa, to help trap the killer, whom he has by then identified as Donald Laing. With Shanker’s help, Strike arranges for Alyssa to pose as his new secretary and lure Laing into the open while he gains access to the flat Laing has been using as a hideout. There he discovers the evidence of the murders, including the severed body parts kept in a refrigerator.

This leads to a dramatic climax in which the murderer turns up. Strike has difficulty subduing him, partly because of his missing leg, but he is helped by Shanker, a man whom his mother, Leda, had taken in as a neglected and badly beaten boy and who has remained deeply grateful to the family. With the murderer captured and the case effectively wrapped up, Strike asks Shanker to drive him to Yorkshire, where Robin’s wedding is taking place. They arrive while the ceremony is still in progress, and Strike manages to get into the church just as Robin is making her vows. When she sees him, she beams and says “I do” while looking at him rather than at Matthew.

Clearly, this suggests that the relationship between Strike and Robin is far from settled. Indeed, as I discovered when I read the fifth book in the series, the story certainly does run and run.

Continue Reading

Features

Ananda Ganegoda: Pioneer in popularising Sinhala music

Published

on

Ananda Ganegoda

by Dr Upul Wijayawardhana

It was with a great sense of sadness that I received the news about the death of Ananda Ganegoda at the age of 80 years; the last of the famous industrialist Ganegoda brothers to depart. Ananada was a businessman par excellence but he ought to be remembered specially for his outstanding contribution to popularising Sinhala music by founding the music label Singlanka in 1980. Unfortunately, I lost touch with him, having seen him only once since I left Sri Lanka in May 1988. As I mentioned in my article on statins (Cholesterol lowering statins: Scope for use widens – The Island; 18 September) I have met some remarkable people in my practice of medicine and Ananda was certainly one of them.

The Ganegoda brothers were actually two sets of first cousins though they worked as a single family. Nandajeewa, Sumanalatha, Wimalajeeva, Karunajeewa and Ratnajeeva were the children of Jineris Ganegoda whilst Chandrasiri, Jinadri and Ananda were the children of Jineris’ younger brother Johanis. Sadly, it seems to have been forgotten by many that the Ganegoda brothers were instrumental in changing our export economy by starting garment factories in 1954, one of the first groups of non-traditional exports. According to a family post on Facebook, the visionary leader was Wimalajeewa, who started Noortex, Mayura, GIL and Eurolanka garment factories. Others followed suit and they presided over a vast business empire.

My first contact was not with Ananda but Karunajeeva, if my memory serves me right. After a consultation and a friendly chat, he invited me to a factory visit, which I readily agreed to. He took me to one of the factories in Ratmalana and I was very pleasantly surprised with the high standards maintained in the factory including workers’ welfare. I was able to taste the delicious food served to the workers. The icing on the cake was his measuring me out for shirts and trousers which I wore for a very long time!

Maybe around late 1983 or early ‘84, Ananda ‘channelled’ me for a consultation in the Central Hospital for chest pain and was accompanied by his wife, Nandani. I noted that, in addition to the cigarette smell, he had heavy nicotine staining of fingers. After having ensured that his pain was not cardiac, I tore into him stating, “What is wrong with you? You are among the Sri Lankan businessman doing well and you seem determined to commit suicide with chain smoking,” Then I started wondering whether I had been too blunt, but Ananda said “Dr, Thank you very much. I will stop smoking” and his calm response took me by surprise. On a subsequent social occasion, Nandani whispered in my ear that he had an occasional ‘secret smoke’ and when I encountered, Ananda said “Dr, hari amarui” but promised he would give up completely. I do not know whether he did so but the significant reduction of consumption, hopefully, contributed to his longevity.

I met him last in 1995, in the role of a peacemaker when he was in open conflict with a close relative of mine. I pleaded with him to stop the battle, pointing out that one of his nieces was being courted by the son of my relative. Though shocked, he promised to make peace.

Ananda’s crowning achievement was the founding of Singlanka which made Sinhala songs accessible to the masses. Those of us, old enough to remember, know how difficult it was to listen to music. As a child, I had to go to the village Community Centre to listen to the radio, which is in utter contrast to what is happening today. With just a click on the smartphone anyone can listen to music of any choice, anytime, anywhere as long as you are connected to the internet! Recording with the ability to playback, started with the Phonograph invented by Thomas Edison in 1877, Vinyl records being available from the early twentieth century. They came in various speeds and sizes but needed cumbersome players.

The real breakthrough came in 1963, when the Dutch company Philips introduced the Compact Cassette with more convenient players. Singlanka gave everyone the opportunity to listen to their favourite artists on Compact Cassettes. When the Compact Disc format, developed jointly by Philips and Sony, released in 1983, gathered momentum, Singlanka too moved to this format but most of us are still in possession of Singlanka cassettes. I still occasionally listen to Nanda Malini’s “Pavana”, which has become relevant because of the recent death of Nanda Malini and the ascent of JVP to power, but that is another story.

Most of our famous singers, including the greats like Amaradeva and Nanda Malini, owe at least a significant part of their fame and fortune to Singlanka, which was Ananda’s brainchild. Looking at the discography of Singlanka is like looking at a list of all favourite singers. In addition, Ananda gave the opportunity to the less known in the field of music also to showcase their talent, the best example being Carlo Fonseka’s Calochita Gee, which was a compilation of songs sung by various artists to the lyrics and melodies of Carlo. Who would have imagined multi-talented Carlo having musical creativity as well!

As for me, one event illustrated his generosity and his sense of gratitude. When Dr N J Wallooppillai retired, and I succeeded him as Cardiologist, I arranged for an international conference “Cardiology Update”, which was held on 6th and 7th of June 1985 at Galadari Meridien Hotel, culminating in a banquet. When I rang Ananda about this, he immediately offered to sponsor music for the evening and arranged for Patrick Denipitiya Combo to play and Ivor Dennis, Indrani and Sisira Senaratna to sing. It was a memorable evening, with plaudits from attendees, though we did not have an opportunity to rehearse. I compeered and we selected the songs as we went on. When Indrani wanted to sing Gaya Geethayan I had to stop as it was a Hindi tune and Indians were in the audience! My wife Primrose joined Ivor Dennis to duet “Olu Pipila Wela Lela Denawa”. We ended the banquet with Ivor Dennis singing, and the audience joining, the patriotic song Dakuna, Negenahira, Batahira, Uturada, Eka Kodiye Sevene thanks to Ananda. I am eternally grateful to him.

May Ananda attain the Supreme Bliss of Nibbana!

Continue Reading

Trending