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Delta variant may account for 90% of cases unless action is taken to curb its spread – expert

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By Rathindra Kuruwita

The Delta variant of coronavirus would increase in the next few weeks and could account for 90% of all cases, Executive Director of the Institute for Health Policy (IHP), Dr Ravi Rannan-Eliya told The Island yesterday. He said that the actual Delta infection rate was probably four to six times higher than reported.

Soon the average transmission rate would be driven by Delta, which was 40%-60% more infectious than the alpha variant, and current measures taken by Sri Lanka were totally inadequate to control it, Dr. Rannan-Eliya said, adding that already, one in 10 samples, sequenced across the country, showed Delta varian infection.

“Whatever the current infection rate is today, it will almost certainly increase in the coming weeks. Most of our cases (90%) are probably still the Alpha variant,” Dr. Eliya said.

Commenting on the recent drop in COVID-19 cases in Sri Lanka, Dr. Eliya said that there were several reasons for that. He added that in almost all countries, most infections were never detected. Most people with COVID-19 were either asymptomatic or the infected person did not visit a doctor.

“At most, only 25-50% of infections are ever detected. In the case of India, the data suggest that fewer than 3% of infections were ever detected and reported. In the case of Sri Lanka, we probably did relatively well. If contact tracing was not efficiently done and most contacts were not tested, the number of reported cases could be lower, he said.

“Our test to case ratio (TCR) is now much worse than it was six months ago or even 4-5 months ago. All of this points to the actual infection rate being four to six times higher than reported cases”, he said, adding that the death rate bore evidence. The government was now reporting only deaths counted during the past 48 hours.

“I think the death rate may be closer to 100 a day. The death rate with COVID should be about 0.4–0.8%, and, therefore, if we are having 80 or more deaths a day, then the true infection rate could be around 10,000. Minister Fernandopulle said some time ago that actual infections could be several times the reported cases.”

Dr. Rannan-Eliya said that the countries that had controlled the Delta outbreaks at the community were China and Australia. They conducted aggressive testing. In the case of China, over 50 million tests were done in the province where the outbreak occurred, and as regards NSW in Australia, tests are being conducted at the rate of 50,000 a day. “With our current abysmal rate of testing and with the breakdown of the system of contact tracing and isolation, it is possible that Delta variant will spread faster.”



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Theft of USD 2.5 mn from Treasury: CoPF accused of complicity in NPP cover-up

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Harsha rejects what he called frivolous accusations

Chairman of Committee on Public Finance (CoPF) Dr. Harsha de Silva dismissed Free Lawyers’ claim that his Committee had helped delay a proper investigation into the theft of USD 2.5 mn (nearly Rs 1 bn) from the Treasury.

The Colombo District SJB MP said that he wouldn’t comment on frivolous accusations against his Committee. “We conduct ourselves in keeping with the highest standards of professionalism and responsibility.”

Dr. de Silva said so when The Island raised the Free Lawyers’ allegation that the Treasury and the Central Bank were using the CoPF as a tool to prolong investigations into the unprecedented theft of funds. Free Lawyers targeted the CoPF in a statement issued by Maithri Gunaratne, PC, and civil society activist Rajith Keerthi Tennakoon.

The other members of the CoPF are Harshana Rajakaruna (SJB), Ravi Karunanayake (NDF), Nimal Palihena (NPP), Wijesiri Basnayake (NPP), Thilina Samarakoon (NPP), Lakmali Hemachandra (NPP), Chathuranga Abeysinghe (NPP), Kaushalya Ariyaratne (NPP), Akram Ilyas (NPP), Shanakiyan Rajaputhiran Rasamanikkyam (ITAK), Champika Hettiarachchi (NPP), Sunil Rajapaksha (NPP),

M. K. M. Aslam (NPP), Ajith Agalakada (NPP), Rauff Hakeem (SLMC), Chitral Fernando (SJB) and Nishantha Jayaweera (NPP).

Tennakoon said the theft of funds happened over eight months ago and the Parliament owed the country a clear explanation regarding the disappearance of USD 2.5 mn. The CoPF, instead of expediting the process, has conveniently granted time for those responsible for the loss to cover up their tracks. “Free Lawyers pursue the issue at hand vigorously as we were the first to reveal the loss of USD 2.5 mn. Those who knew it remained silent until our disclosure,” he said, alleging that Speaker Dr. Jagath Wickremaratne was yet to respond to their letter regarding the USD 2.5 theft.

Responding to queries, Tennakoon said that political parties represented in the CoPF should be held responsible for the developing situation. “The Committee on Public Accounts Committee (CoPA) headed by SJB MP Kabir Hashim too, should explain its failure to deal with the USD 2.5 mn theft. Both CoPF and CoPA led by two SJB MPs should act now. Dr. de Silva and Hashim are answerable to the public, particularly because they represent the main Opposition.”

The CoPA consists of Kabir Hashim, Maj. Gen. Aruna Jayasekera (NPP), Sugath Thilakaratne (NPP), Anton Jayakody (NPP), Chandana Sooriyaarachchi (NPP), Ruwanthilaka Jayakody (NPP), Nalin Hewage (NPP), Oshani Umanga (NPP), Manjula Suraweera (NPP), Sagarika Athauda (NPP), Janaka Senarathna (NPP), K.Illankumaran (NPP), Dinidu Saman Henanayake (NPP), Susantha Kumara Navaratna (NPP), Lal Premanath (NPP), Aravinda Senarath (NPP), Thushari Jayasinghe (NPP), T. K. Jayasundera, Ajantha Gammeddage (NPP), Sundaralingam Pradeep (NPP), Kavinda Jayawardena (SJB), J.C. Alawathuwala (SJB),Hector Appuhamy (SJB), Kaveenthiran Kodeeswaran (ITAK), Chamara Sampath Dassanayake (NDF), Rohitha Abeygunawardena (NDF), M.L.A.M. Hisbullah (SLMC), M.A.M. Thahir (ACMC), Chanaka Madugoda (SLPP) and Sunil Ratnasiri (NPP).

Tennakoon said that both CoPF and CoPA were dominated by the NPP though the SJBers headed them. However, as heads of the two parliamentary committees, Dr. de Silva and Hashim, should be held responsible for lapses on the part of the committees or any deliberate omissions, Tennakoon said, questioning the rationale behind giving the Treasury and the CBSL six weeks to submit their findings to the CoPF.

Free Lawyers alleged that USD 2.5 had been released in spite of JP Morgan Chase and the Federal Reserve in the United States warning Sri Lanka about the suspicious nature of those foreign transactions via SWIFT messages. Tennakoon emphasized investigators should closely inquire into the decision taken to release funds regardless of such high-profile warnings.

Tennakoon said that the integrity of two key parliamentary committees is at stake. The civil society activist said that the country was in a highly critical phase of debt restructuring following a severe economic crisis. Tennakoon pointed out in terms of a condition of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) loan programme, the government’s debt management functions, previously carried out by the CBSL, were recently transferred to a new institution established under the General Treasury—the Public Debt Management Office (PDMO).

by Shamindra Ferdinando

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Viral diseases on the rise

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The number of patients hospitalised due to viral illnesses, including dengue fever, had increased significantly, health officials said yesterday, adding that there had been a rise in daily dengue-related admissions.

Acting Director of the National Dengue Control Unit Dr. Kapila Kannangara said Sri Lanka had recorded 41,144 dengue cases as of Saturday (13).

He said more than half of the reported cases—around 51 percent—were from the Western Province.

According to Dr. Kannangara, the number of dengue patients admitted to hospital daily had reached 750, but it had declined to around 630. However, he cautioned that infection levels remained “very high,” despite the slight drop in hospital admissions.

The dengue death toll has risen to 24, prompting several hospitals to issue red alerts amid continued pressure on wards treating incoming patients.

Health officials warned that the situation could worsen if case numbers continued to rise. Dr. Kannangara noted that the growing burden on healthcare facilities could eventually exceed system capacity.

The public has been urged to take preventive measures to eliminate mosquito breeding sites and to seek prompt medical attention if dengue symptoms develop.

by Chaminda Silva

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Ranil warns of another economic crisis, calls for Opposition unity

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Former President and UNP leader Ranil Wickremesinghe has warned that Sri Lanka is heading towards a severe economic crisis, alleging that the current administration is steering the country towards “total collapse.”

Addressing a meeting of the UNP Working Committee at the party headquarters on Flower Road on Thursday, Wickremesinghe claimed that the government was facing mounting difficulties on multiple fronts, with the economy continuing to deteriorate.

He also accused the administration of pursuing policies that, he said, marginalised war heroes and Buddhist monks.

Wickremesinghe expressed concern over what he described as an erosion of fundamental and legal rights, citing the arrest and alleged ill-treatment of former State Intelligence Service Chief Suresh Sallay as an example. He said the rising cost of living had emerged as one of the main concerns of the public.

Commenting on the political situation, the former President said the Opposition had not been able to forge unity among the anti-government forces and called for greater coordination among Opposition parties and groups. He advocated a phased mobilisation strategy, beginning at village and electorate level, instead of attempting to address all issues simultaneously.

Wickremesinghe also announced a series of political campaigns and rallies aimed at strengthening the Opposition movement. The programme is scheduled to commence in Kandy this weekend, with subsequent events planned in Kurunegala and Kalutara.

He said the UNP was engaged in discussions with several political parties and organisations, including those led by Minister Jeevan Thondaman, with a view to forming a broader political alliance.Wickremesinghe urged party members to expedite discussions and arrive at a collective decision on the way forward to address the country’s challenges.

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