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Delta variant may account for 90% of cases unless action is taken to curb its spread – expert

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By Rathindra Kuruwita

The Delta variant of coronavirus would increase in the next few weeks and could account for 90% of all cases, Executive Director of the Institute for Health Policy (IHP), Dr Ravi Rannan-Eliya told The Island yesterday. He said that the actual Delta infection rate was probably four to six times higher than reported.

Soon the average transmission rate would be driven by Delta, which was 40%-60% more infectious than the alpha variant, and current measures taken by Sri Lanka were totally inadequate to control it, Dr. Rannan-Eliya said, adding that already, one in 10 samples, sequenced across the country, showed Delta varian infection.

“Whatever the current infection rate is today, it will almost certainly increase in the coming weeks. Most of our cases (90%) are probably still the Alpha variant,” Dr. Eliya said.

Commenting on the recent drop in COVID-19 cases in Sri Lanka, Dr. Eliya said that there were several reasons for that. He added that in almost all countries, most infections were never detected. Most people with COVID-19 were either asymptomatic or the infected person did not visit a doctor.

“At most, only 25-50% of infections are ever detected. In the case of India, the data suggest that fewer than 3% of infections were ever detected and reported. In the case of Sri Lanka, we probably did relatively well. If contact tracing was not efficiently done and most contacts were not tested, the number of reported cases could be lower, he said.

“Our test to case ratio (TCR) is now much worse than it was six months ago or even 4-5 months ago. All of this points to the actual infection rate being four to six times higher than reported cases”, he said, adding that the death rate bore evidence. The government was now reporting only deaths counted during the past 48 hours.

“I think the death rate may be closer to 100 a day. The death rate with COVID should be about 0.4–0.8%, and, therefore, if we are having 80 or more deaths a day, then the true infection rate could be around 10,000. Minister Fernandopulle said some time ago that actual infections could be several times the reported cases.”

Dr. Rannan-Eliya said that the countries that had controlled the Delta outbreaks at the community were China and Australia. They conducted aggressive testing. In the case of China, over 50 million tests were done in the province where the outbreak occurred, and as regards NSW in Australia, tests are being conducted at the rate of 50,000 a day. “With our current abysmal rate of testing and with the breakdown of the system of contact tracing and isolation, it is possible that Delta variant will spread faster.”



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Department of Registration of Persons back to normal

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The computer system at the Department of Registration of Persons has been rectified and the services  are back to normal.

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SJB: China, India taking advantage of Lanka’s unregulated oil market

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Ananda Palitha

… questions why the price of a by-product like kerosene was jacked up

China Petrochemical Corporation (Sinopec Group) and Indian Oil Corporation Lanka (IOC PLC) have increased the prices of certain products significantly more than the Ceylon Petroleum Corporation (CPC). However, the fourth player in the market R.M. Parks, a US company in collaboration with Shell that launched operations here in late February last year, has increased its prices in line with Ceypetco.

Convener of the Samagi Joint Trade Union Alliance, Ananda Palitha, yesterday (23) told The Island that foreign players had immensely benefited from the latest price revision at the expense of Sri Lankan consumers.

Alleging that Sinopec and Lanka IOC PLC had become a law unto themselves, Palitha pointed out that the failure on the part of successive governments to establish an Independent Commission and Regulatory Authority for the petroleum sector had allowed Ceypetco and all foreign players to do as they please. Palitha said that in the absence of proper regulatory mechanism, CPC/Energy Ministry should ensure genuine competitiveness in the market.

Palitha said that the NPP government had exploited the ongoing Middle East war to earn unconscionable profits at a time the economy was reeling under the impact of the Hormuz Strait blockade. According to him, all four players increased Auto Diesel by Rs. 79 to Rs. 382 per litre, and Octane 92 Petrol by Rs. 81 to Rs. 398 per litre, while Sinopec and Lanka IOC PLC price list differed in respect of other products. At most filling stations Octane 92 was not available and only higher priced Octane 95 petrol was available.

Pointing out that since the eruption of the Middle East conflict, on 28 February, the NPP had twice increased fuel prices on 09 and 22 March, Palitha said that the government could have cushioned the impact by lowering taxes imposed on crude oil and refined petroleum products. Instead, the latest price revisions resulted in further increase of customs duties, VAT and Port and Airport Development Levy. Additional duties often apply, such as a surcharge tax, on diesel and petrol.

Since the entry of Lanka IOC into the market in 2003, Sinopec in 2023 and R.M. Parks in 2025 eroded the CPC share and, at the moment, it was down to about 57%, and the private players accounted for the rest. Palitha placed the number of filling stations players authorised to operate at Ceypetco (836), Lanka IOC (274) and Sinopec and R.M. Parks 150 each.

Palitha said Lanka IOC has increased Petrol Octane 95 to Rs. 487 a litre whereas the CPC priced the same at Rs. 455) a litre. Lanka IOC and Ceypetco have priced a litre of Super diesel at Rs. 572 and Rs. 443, respectively.

LIOC has also revised its premium fuel categories, with Xtra Premium Petrol priced at Rs. 465, Xtra Mile at Rs. 551, and Xtra Green Diesel at Rs. 588.

Claiming that the government had twice increased the prices of old petroleum stocks, procured at a maximum USD 70 a barrel, weeks, if not months, before the new war, Palitha found fault with the Opposition for not launching a sustained campaign against the exploitation of the public. Palitha said that the increase of a litre of kerosene by Rs. 13 on 09 March and Rs. 60 on 22 March was unjustifiable. “The people do not know that kerosene is a by-product in the process of refining crude oil. Sapugaskanda produces LPG, naphtha, petrol, diesel, kerosene and furnace oil.”

The price of a litre of kerosene to had been increased to Rs 255, Palitha said, adding that it could have been provided to the needy at a much lower rate. If those who represent Parliament bothered to study the issues at hand, they would be able to challenge the government on this disgraceful manipulation of the entire country, he said.

Palitha said that the Parliament owed an explanation as to why the Commission to regulate the oil trade hadn’t been appointed and whether some interested parties financially benefited at the expense of the country.

Palitha said that the introduction of the QR code to control fuel sales and the increase of the fuel quota last Sunday night had been used to deceive the public when those in power and their friends in the industry made money at the expense of the public.

By Shamindra Ferdinando

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SL to redevelop Trinco tank farm expeditiously

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Vijitha Herath

Sri Lanka is planning to fast-track the redevelopment of the Trincomalee oil tank farm as a long-term solution to its ongoing energy crisis, with backing from India and the United Arab Emirates, The Hindu has reported.

Foreign Minister Vijitha Herath said the project, which involves restoring World War II-era oil storage facilities in the eastern district, is seen as a “permanent solution” to managing fuel supply challenges.

“Temporary solutions are not sustainable. We need a long-term strategy to deal with oil storage and distribution, given the global energy situation,” he told The Hindu.

The initiative follows a Memorandum of Understanding signed in April 2025 between Sri Lanka, India, and the UAE to develop Trincomalee as a regional energy hub.

Despite previous delays spanning decades, the project has gained renewed urgency amid the current global energy crisis, which has disrupted supply chains and driven up fuel costs.

Sri Lanka has already submitted a concept proposal to its partners, while technical aspects are being reviewed by the Energy Ministry before moving to the tender stage, according to the report.

The renewed push also marks a notable policy shift, as the ruling administration, led by the National People’s Power, had previously opposed Indian involvement in the project.

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