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‘Debterioration’ of nations’ social security and protection

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A Sri Lankan hospital: “Robust social protection and security systems have to be put in place, enabling the working poor to live and die in dignity. Although Sri Lanka boasts of a universal health care system, as reported in the media, the current healthcare system is in peril as the government cannot finance the health care needs and retain the healthcare professionals in the country.”

By Jayasri Priyalal 

The policymakers in developed and developing countries are keen to promote resource-distributive policies, anticipating economic growth to take effect automatically. Such dysfunctional growth policies unleash dire unintended consequences in the long run. The trend leads to borrowing from the future, as the benchmark set of solutions proposed, to stimulate sagging economies across the globe, even in the pre and post-COVID-19 pandemic. Policymakers are utterly confused about the extraction of resources for distributive purposes.

‘Debterioration’ is the word the writer coined in May 2019, cautioning against the impact of the unconventional monetary policies introduced in the name of quantitative easing (QE) by the Federal Reserve Bank in the USA and the European Central Bank. The background analysis for the essay on the facts before the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. https://asiancenturyinstitute.com/economy/1513-the-great-debterioration

Now it reveals that the quantity of money released with QE is around US$ 30 trillion. The amount is equivalent to total pension funds outside of the USA—the US pension funds amount to US$ 19 trillion. The excessive volume of money cloned did not add surplus outcomes of production and services in the real economy. Unorthodox public-private partnerships are engineered to ease tensions and avoid the bankruptcies of the rich and famous at taxpayers’ expense. The current inflationary trends directly impact the artificial money in circulation. The resultant outcome now turns out to be a net Qualitative Extraction from the future prosperities of the marginalised.

History reveals that pandemics in the past have been turning points in human civilisation. The Black Death, in the thirteenth century, ended the serfdom in Europe and gave way to the wage payment for labour as there was a massive shortage as the pandemic wiped out half of the population in Europe. Similarly, the HINI influenza, popularly known as the Spanish Flu in the early twentieth century, set the benchmark for eight hours of work as many workers had to rest from work to recover from influenza. The first convention of the International Labour Organization (ILO) recommends eight hours as a dignified work period for humans per a workday.

ILO was the first UN agency formed as a tripartite institution in 1919 after WW1. These incidents have shaped the progress of civilisation of humanity, stimulating real economic growth for shared prosperity, not limiting it to a few.

Bonding with Debt and Restructuring Domestic Debt

This writer very well recalls the treasury bond saga under the Yahapalana government in 2017. Then the bond-master, veteran investment banker Governor of the Central Bank of Sri Lanka Arjuna Mahendran introduced the long-term bonds with a maturity tenure of 30 years. They were tripling the volume of the bonds offered in the weekly auction by CBSL in the history of the Government Debt department. It is an irony; such short-sighted decisions were possible under the then Prime Minister Ranil Wickremasinghe, Central Bank affairs and is now overseeing the Domestic Debt Restructuring following the near bankruptcy of the economy. Sri Lankans are destined to realise that the chosen healer, as the disease leading to another debt pandemic, will resurface in time to come.

Domestic Debt Restructuring

Extending the maturity of the guilt-edged risk-free government debt instruments, but for how long? Are they actually risk-free? Short-termism ended in the ‘Debterioation’ of the economy of Sri Lanka. The trend is everywhere across the globe, fake prosperities feeling of richness, thanks to the impotent capital circulated as debt indeed implodes the current debt-ridden unsustainable financial architecture. Will this be another turning point following the COVID-19 pandemic? Major central banks such as China, India and Sweden are now testing grounds for introducing Central Bank Digital Currencies. De-dollarization of the international payment and settlement system is also in the pipeline. Shock Doctrine and Austerity on the Marginalized and Vulnerable

Sri Lanka is a nation where we are good at finding problems in solutions instead of finding appropriate solutions for problems. A parliamentary select committee has been appointed to find out the causes that led to the virtual bankruptcy of the economy.

When the bond saga came to light, the Prime Minister appointed a committee of three legal experts to investigate the allegations against Governor Arjuna Mahendran, and the committee exonerated him. A complete crime drama came to light during the committee of inquiry commissioned by President Maithripala Sirisena. No one has been held accountable or responsible for the crime, but many gained perpetually, creating pain for the entire population. A good analogy to describe the drama is to recall a famous Sinhala saying, which interprets as – consulting the robber’s mother in a soothsaying attempt in search of clues of the robbery.

A classic example is how those in power throw lifeboats to high net worth friends and cronies for their rescue and survival. They take away the life-saving jackets from the struggling ordinary citizens for survival, pushing them into a perpetual life-and-death struggle. The proposed Domestic Debt Restructure (DDR) is precisely the same process in taking away the life jackets from the majority of the working population who had immensely contributed to the growth of the real economy during their productive life span. And the policymakers are in a hurry to throw lifeboats to save those financiers who engineered the state capture with the connivance with corrupt politicians. The lifeboats were gifted to those who extracted profits in financing unsustainable debt, particularly in investing in government debt. Many get off scot-free, and policymakers are passing the burden on the EPF Social Security fund, the most significant funds amounting to LKR 2.8 trillion with conditional shock doctrines, such as imposing of 30% tax, as a form of extraction on the earnings due to the contributors who saved money for their future a secured retired life in coping with demographic and ageing challenges.

Demographic challenges of a widening ageing population

Robust social protection and security systems have to be put in place, enabling the working poor to live and die in dignity. Although Sri Lanka boasts of a universal health care system, as reported in the media, the current healthcare system is in peril as the government cannot finance the health care needs and retain the healthcare professionals in the country.

According to the Institute for Health Metrics Evaluation (IHME) forecast, the life expectancy at birth of a Sri Lankan Male in 1990 was 65.6 years, rising up to 81.3 in 2100, and for Females, from 74.8 years to 87.2 years. (Forecasted data based on Global Burden of Disease 2017 results). https://www.healthdata.org/sri-lanka

The health data analysis in the IHME database reveals in 2019, health care expenditure per person in Sri Lanka amounted to US$ 154 (average per capita), out of which Government Health spending only amounts to US$ 70.34 out of pocket expenditure the patient amounts to US$ 70.96. Balance paid by development assistance received from donor agencies. The plight of the Universal Health Care operation in the pre-pandemic era. In Sri Lanka, we benefited from the public healthcare system as a form of social security, and taxpayers have been footing the funding since our independence. IHME data reveals how the disease burden is passed on to the patient cutting down on the government health expenditure. And the question remains whether the amount spent by the government on the patient eased the financial hardship of the marginalised in their healthcare needs or filled up the pockets of a few agents who know how to take care of the policymakers’ interest.

The latest forecast of the global ageing population trends reveals that a male reaching 65 years in 2020 is expected to live for another 19 years, and a female will live for another 22 years. This trend is possible due to advances in the medical sciences and healthcare facilities. Now the question remains whether the Sri Lankan public health system is geared to meet the healthcare needs of the widening ageing population in the future.

Safeguarding the Social Security Systems for the Future 

Progressive socially conscious politicians such as T. B. Illangarathne, C P de Silva and Philip Gunawardena, under the leadership of Prime Minister S W R D Bandaranaike the MEP government, introduced the Employees Provident Fund (EPF) in 1958 as a form of social security system sharing the contributions between the employers and employees. Furthermore, the system upscaled with the introduction of the Employees Trust Fund in 1980 by the UNP government under the leadership of President J R Jayewardena with the wise counsellors of Minister Lalith Athulathmudali.

All these funds emerged to secure the retired life of those who contribute to nation-building during their primetime in life. Contributions to ETF come exclusively from employers.

What is happening now is unfortunate. Those who manage the fund have deviated from the primary objectives and are using the fund just as a slush fund, and trying to impose taxes on the benefits occurring to the members to finance the government expenditure, in particular, to service the debts raised for wasteful investments not earning any revenues in the past.

What are the Socially responsible investment options for EPF/ETF in Sri Lanka? 

At the outset, this essay questioned the prudence of the policymakers abusing the resources for distributive purposes rather than directing them to generate growth for long-term societal benefits. Having wasted the opportunities to upgrade the quality of life of those who have contributed to the funds of both the Employers and Employees, the large pool of money has been abused by those in power.

This writer opines that all these funds are managed under a Board of Trustees, elected by the subscribing members representing the employers, employees and government regulatory institutions. At present, the funds are held at the Central Bank for safekeeping. The pioneers of creating EPF would have opted to keep the money in the Central Bank, as at that time, similar debt financing was not the government’s primary motive. Now, the situations have changed, involving numerous stakeholders engaged in the affairs of the funds hunting for opportunities to take advantage of short-term gains at the expense of the long-term benefit of the members. Most 90% of the investments are held in Government debt securities, assuming they are risk-free. Now we know that there is nothing like a risk-free gilt-edged investment.

These funds have to be invested in projects that drive economic growth and strengthen the social security needs of the agening populations, such as building hospitals to provide affordable healthcare and long-term care needs of the members.

 Today, the government cannot source funds to continue paying non-contributory pensions to retired employees. A large pool of employees expected to retire may have to work for an extended period. Lifelong learning and lifelong working will become the norm as technology infiltrates production and distribution; these funds will be invested in upgrading the skills and competencies of the workforce irrespective of their age and building public housing schemes for the members, such as in Singapore.

The system changes many Sri Lankans aspire to should build on innovative schemes preventing abuse of workers’ savings by unaccountable, irresponsible policymakers. The trade unions representing the interest of workers and the industry chambers, employers’ federations and councils need to unite and come forward to protect the social security of the community driving investment for sustainable development goals.

There are solid systems in operation in other countries, such as Australia. Australian Super is a fund professionally managed by the Australian Council of Trade Unions and Australian Industry. The New Pension Scheme in India has also started recently and is progressing well.

Labour law reforms and debt restructuring attract media attention, and numerous public protests and social discussions are boiling up in Sri Lanka. It will be suitable for sensible policymakers who secure legitimacy to govern with a mandate from people’s power to focus on these two critical areas simultaneously to strengthen the ‘debterioration’ of systems started with good intentions due to excessive financialization, as explained.



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Opinion

Nihal Seneviratne – God’s good man

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Nihal Seneviratne

Nihal Seneviratne’s funeral on Wednesday was one of the best attended in recent times. He passed away on Tuesday after a short spell in hospital and no wonder a great many people came to bid him a final goodbye. He was not only a truly accomplished public servant with a 33-year long career in the legislature but was also God’s good man – humble, pleasant and ever ready to go out of his way to help anybody.

Like his predecessor as Secretary General of Parliament, Sam Wijesinha, Nihal passed the 91+ years landmark in his lifetime. These two top officials who headed the administration of the legislature for many long years were very different from each other. Sam made the office of Clerk to the House of Representatives he took over from retiring Ralph Deraniyagala, a very visible institution while Nihal, recruited as Assistant to the then Clerk Assistant in 1965 during Deraniyagala’s time, preferred to do his job away from the limelight.

He was affectionately nicknamed Galba from his days at the Royal Primary School in the 1940s – a teacher had asked him “Seneviratne, what’s in your lunchbox?” and he had replied “Gulbunis, Sir” – acquiring a nickname that withstood the ravages of time. Coincidentally, he married into the famous Perera and Sons bakery family and even his wife, Srima, often referred to him as “Galba.”.

His choice of career was somewhat accidental. Having taken an Ll.B. degree from Peradeniya in 1959 he had undergone the mandatory two years at the Law College to be enrolled as an advocate. He had won a scholarship to the US when an advertisement for the parliament vacancy was published. His close friend, Rajah Kuruppu (“Crumbs” to him) had typed out an application, got him to sign it and sent it off.

He was interviewed and selected. Therein lies an interesting story. The interview board comprised the Speaker (Pelpola), Leader of the House (CP de Silva), Leader of the Opposition (Dudley Senanayake) and the Clerk (Deraniyagala). When he said he was a Royalist, both Dudley and CP who were Thomians said “wrong school!”

Nihal asked Deraniyagala whether he could complete his American scholarship and take up the appointment on his return. This was refused but but he was told he’d be sent to the House of Commons for training. Nihal accepted these terms and a long career ending at the pinnacle ensued.

Srima used to joke that when she was engaged to Nihal, she would tell her friends that she was marrying an assistant clerk!

As an All Island JP, Nihal was of immense service to friends and acquaintances attesting various documents. Hundreds of these have been signed on his dining table. He would often offer to visit friends’ homes when attestations were required without making them come to him.

Nihal Seneviratne appropriately wore a Royal College tie when he was laid out after passing away. He had always been passionate about his old school, serving as Secretary of the Royal College Union and being its Vice President Emeritus when he died. The school was well represented st his funeral.

He also did much to keep the alive the memory of his late brother, Professor KN (Bull) Seneviratne, well known professor of pathology and founder of the Post Graduate Institute of Medicine, who passed away prematurely many years ago, organizing an annual oration in his memory. Despite challenges of age, he flew to Australia to visit his sister living there as often as he could.

Nihal published two books of memoirs with ringside stories of momentous events in the legislature of his time that included the JVP bomb lobbed into a committee room of parliament killing one MP and seriously injuring Lalith Athulaththmudali. JRJ miraculously escaped while then PM Premadasa was also hurt. The grenade bounced off the table at which the president, prime minister and chief government whip sat and exploded under Athulathmudali’s chair. Seneviratne had to cope with the mayhem that followed.

He was on the hot seat when the attempt to impeach President Premadasa was “entertained” by Speaker MH Mohamed who thereafter abandoned it. Therein lies a story that Nihal has written about. He was never consulted by the speaker and the original motion has vanished into thin air and is not in the parliament archives.

Not only Srima, his wife, children Satyajith and Shanika, and his three granddaughters who spoke warmly of their seeya when his last book was launched, but also a host of family, friends, subordinates, colleagues and many more will miss this remarkable human being who non-ostentatiously wore an important title during a long career in the national legislature.

Manik de Silva

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The minstrel monk and Rafiki, the old mandrill in The Lion King – II

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A file photo of Mahinda and Namal

(Continued from January 02, 2026)

From my perspective, it is obvious that Sri Lanka as a country/nation is still left in the lurch politically, economically and morally. The biggest problem is that there is no inspiring leadership. Strong moral leadership is a key component of good governance. ‘Raja bhavatu dhammiko’ (May the ruler be righteous) is the perennial chant of the bhikkhus we hear every morning. A country’s moral leadership is interwoven with its ethical foundation, which, in Sri Lanka’s case, is built on Buddhist moral values, which resonate with the best found in other faiths.  

The two dynamic social activist monks, mentioned towards the end of Part I of this article, are being targeted for severe public denunciation as rabid racists in the media in Sri Lanka and abroad due to three main reasons, in my view: First, they are victims of politically motivated misrepresentation; second, when these two monks try to articulate the problems that they want responsible government servants such as police and civil functionaries to address in accordance with the law, they, due to some personality defect, fail to maintain the calm sedateness and composure normally expected of and traditionally associated with Buddhist monks; third, (perhaps the most important reason in this context), these genuine fighters for justice get wrongly identified, in public perception, with other less principled politician monks affiliated to different political parties. Unlike these two socially dedicated monks, monks engaged in partisan politics are a definite disadvantage to the parties they support, especially when they appear on propaganda platforms. The minstrel monk mentioned later in this writeup is one of them.

The occasional rowdy behaviour of Madakalapuwa Hamuduruwo is provoked by the deliberate non-responsiveness of certain unscrupulous government servants of the Eastern Province (who are under the sway of certain racist minority politicians) to his just demands for basic facilities (such as permits for plots of land and water for cultivation) for traditional Sinhalese dwellers in some isolated villages in the area ravaged by war. That is something that the government must take responsibility for. The well-known Galagoda-aththe Thera had long been warning about the Jihadist threat that finally led to the Easter Sunday attacks, but he was in jail when it actually happened. The Yahapalana government didn’t pay any attention to his evidence-based warnings. Instead they shot the messenger. Had the authorities heeded his urgent calls for alarm, the 275 men, women and children dead, and the 500 or so injured, some grievously, would have been safe.

The Mahanayakes should have taken a leaf out of Cardinal Malcolm Ranjith’s book. The Cardinal knows that his responsibility is to look after his flock as a single unanimously approved/accepted leader of the Catholic Church. He fulfills that responsibility well. But, the Mahanayakes couldn’t have resorted to the Cardinal’s strategies which he chooses in accordance with his Catholic/Christian conscience (ultimately fashioned by Christian moral values). The Mahanayakes however, like the Cardinal, could have brought pressure on any one or all  of the Presidents and the Prime Ministers elected/appointed since the end of the separatist conflict in 2009 to implement Article 9 of the existing Constitution in its letter and spirit and the powerful earlier Antiquities Ordinance of 1940 fully (I hope it is not in abeyance now) to protect the extensive Buddhist archaeological heritage sites spread throughout the North and East, which have been encroached on and vandalised for decades now, and to look after the poverty-stricken Sinhalese peasants who have somehow managed to survive in the isolated villages in the the Batticaloa District.

A few errant monks, in my opinion, owe their existence primarily to the failure of two groups of people, opportunistic politicians and the indifferent Sangha leadership, to put it plainly.  Politicians  use monks for securing the Buddhist vote to come to power, and the Mahanayake theras fail to take a united stand against them. As a rule, politicians forget about monks after getting elected to power, apparently, in the hope of not alienating non-Buddhist voters, who naturally favour candidates of their own at elections. Their leaders acquire the influence they need to survive in politics by rubbing those in power the right way. But those non-Buddhist voters are as innocent and peace-loving as the traditionally hoodwinked Buddhist voters.

 In this context, I remember having watched a YouTube video uploaded over four months ago featuring MP Namal Rajapaksa. The video (2025-08-30) contained a news clip taken from a mainstream TV channel that showed the young MP being snubbed by a certain Anunayake Thera in Kandy. This was when the MP, during his audience with the high priest, mentioned to him how a retired senior naval officer who had done so much selfless service in ridding the country of Tamil separatist terrorism had been arrested and remanded unjustly (as it appeared) under the present government which is being accused of succumbing unnecessarily to global Tamil diaspora pressure. The monk’s dismissive and insensitive comment in response to MP Namal Rajapaksa’s complaint revealed the senior monk’s blissful ignorance and careless attitude: “We can’t say who is right, who is wrong.” Are we any longer to believe that the Maha Sangha that this monk is supposed to represent are the guardians of the nation?

Please remember that the country has been plunged into the current predicament mainly due to the opportunistic politicians’ policy of politics for politics’ sake and the Mahanaykes’ inexplicable “can’t-be-bothered” attitude. It is not that they are not doing anything to save the country, the people, and the inclusive, nonintrusive Buddhist culture

A young political leadership must emerge free from the potentially negative influence of these factors. SLPP national organiser MP Namal Rajapaksa, among a few other young politicians like him of both sexes, is demonstrating the qualities of a person who could make a successful bid for such a leadership position. In a feature article published in The Island in September 2010 (well over fifteen years ago) entitled ‘Old fossils, out! Welcome, new blood!’ I welcomed young Namal Rajapaksa’s entry into politics on his own merits as a Sri Lankan citizen, while criticising the dynastic ambitions of his father, former president Mahinda Rajapaksa. Namal was already a Cabinet minister then, I think. I have made complimentary observations on his performance as a maturing politician on several occasions in my subsequent writings, most recently in connection with the Joint Opposition ‘Maha Jana Handa’ rally at Nugegoda that he organised on November 21, 2025 on behalf of the SLPP (The Island December 9 and 16). A novel feature he had introduced into his programme was having no monk speakers. I, for one, as a patriotic senior Sri Lankan, wholeheartedly approve of that change from the past. Let monks talk about politics, if they must, from a national platform, not from party political stages. That is, they should provide a disciplined, independent ethical voice on broad societal issues. Ulapane Sumangala Thera is approximating that in his current  outspoken criticism of PM Harini Amarasuriya’s controversial education reforms. But I am not sure whether he will continue with non-partisan politics and also infuse some discipline and decency into his speech.

Namal should avoid the trodden path in a plausible manner and get rid of the minstrel monk who insists on accompanying him wherever he goes and tries to entertain your naturally growing audiences with his impromptu recitations”.

This monk reminds me of Rafiki the old mandrill in the 1994 The Lion King animation movie. But there is a world of difference between the monk and the mandrill. The story of The Lion King is an instructive allegory that embodies a lesson for a budding leader. One bright morning, while the royal parents are proudly watching behind him, and, as the sun is rising, Rafiki, the old wise shaman, presents lion king Mufasa’s new born cub, Simba, from the top of Pride Rock to the animals of the Pride Lands assembled below. Rafiki, though a bit of an eccentric old shaman, is a wise spiritual healer, devoted to his royal master, the great king Mufasa, Simba’s father. The film depicts how Simba grows from a carefree cub to a mature king through a life of troubles and tribulations after the death of his father, challenged by his cruel younger brother Scar, Simba’s uncle. Simba learns that ‘true leadership is rooted in wisdom and respect for the natural order, a realisation that contrasts Mufasa’s benevolent rule with Scar’s tyranny’.

Years later, another dawn, animals gather below the Pride Rock, from where Rafiki picks up the wiggling little first born cub of King Simba and Queen Nala and raises him above his head. All the animals cheer and stamp their feet.

The film closes with Simba standing at the top of Pride Rock watching the sunset beyond the western hills.

“Everything is all right, Dad”, Simba said softly. “You see, I remember …. He gazed upward. One by one each star took its place in the cold night sky.

The film describes the Circle of Life, the interconnectedness and interdependence of all living things, and the cycle of birth, death, and renewal. For me, this is a cheerful negation of T.S. Eliot’s pessimistic philosophical reflection on life: “Eating and drinking, dung and death”.

Namal has already developed his inherited political leadership skills, which he will be capable of enhancing further with growing experience. Let’s hope there are other promising, potential young leaders of both sexes as well, to offer him healthy competition eventually,  so that, in the future, the country will be ruled by the best leaders. Concluded

 by Rohana R. Wasala ✍️

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A new era of imperial overreach: Venezuela, international law, and the Long Shadow of Empire

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Abducted Venezuelan President Maduro being taken to a New York court. (File pic)

The recent illegal bombing of civilian infrastructure in the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela, followed by the illegal abduction of President Nicolás Maduro and First Lady Cilia Flores, has sent shockwaves across the Global South. These actions represent a profound escalation in the long history of external interference in Latin America. The targeting of power stations, water systems, and other essential facilities has deepened the suffering of ordinary Venezuelans, echoing the strategy used against Iraq in the years preceding the 2003 invasion. Such attacks on civilian infrastructure constitute clear violations of international humanitarian law and may amount to war crimes.

The seizure of Venezuela’s democratically-elected leadership is also an act of international piracy, drawing comparisons to earlier episodes in which powerful states removed leaders who resisted external domination. The assassination of Congolese Prime Minister Patrice Lumumba in 1961, the invasion of Panama and removal of leader Manuel Noriega in 1989, and the forced removal of Haitian President Jean‑Bertrand Aristide in 2004 come to mind.

The abduction of Maduro and Flores are part of a pattern in which powerful nations intervene to reshape political landscapes in ways that align with their strategic and economic interests. It is part of a series of unilateral US foreign policy decisions, often violating international law, that have drawn significant international criticism.

These developments bring into question the very nature of modern imperialism. The United States’ actions in Venezuela resemble the gunboat diplomacy once practised by the British Empire. During the height of British colonial power, it routinely deployed the Royal Navy to intimidate or coerce nations into compliance. That era only came to a symbolic end when the forces of the newly established People’s Republic of China forced the last British Yangtze gunboat, HMS Amethyst, out of Chinese waters in 1949. The contemporary US interventions, whether through military strikes, unilateral economic sanctions, or covert operations, represent a modernised form of the same imperial logic.

Historical comparisons can also be made to the 1956 Suez Crisis, when Britain, France, and Israel invaded Egypt in an attempt to seize control of the Suez Canal. At that time, US President Dwight D. Eisenhower, a Republican and former general, stood on the right side of history when he opposed the invasion and joined the international community in pressuring the aggressors to withdraw. Analysts often highlight this moment as an example of the United States aligning itself with anti‑colonial sentiment and the principles of national sovereignty.

This stance was consistent with the ideals of the American Revolution, when George Washington and other revolutionaries resisted the imperial policies of King George III. The British monarch’s actions were widely seen as serving the interests of the East India Company and other commercial elites. Critics of current US foreign policy suggest that the motivations behind recent actions in Venezuela and Iran bear uncomfortable similarities to those earlier imperial dynamics.

According to these perspectives, the pressures placed on Venezuela today are driven by strategic considerations:

  • Control over vast oil reserves, among the largest in the world
  • Protection of the US dollar from global de‑dollarisation efforts
  • Geopolitical positioning against states such as Venezuela and Iran
  • Support for Israel, embroiled in a long-standing, illegal occupation of Palestine – opposed actively by both Venezuela and Iran.

These arguments frame the situation not as an isolated incident, but as part of a broader geopolitical strategy reminiscent of the lead‑up to the 2003 invasion of Iraq.

It seems that President Donald Trump, the driving force behind the illegal aggression against Venezuela and Iran, lacks the sagacity and knowledge of US history of past presidents like George Washington and Eisenhower.The illegal invasion of Iraq by President George W Bush in 2003 embroiled the US in a conflict that denuded its military capacity, depleted the US treasury and accelerated the decline of the US as a world economic and military power.

The US is no longer even as strong as it was prior to the Iraq invasion. The Russo-Ukraine war has revealed the weakness of the Western military, both in production and technological terms – the US has been forced to reverse-engineer Iranian drones, for example. The US economy is reeling, its apparent strength in GDP terms belied by its lack of productive capability.

The attempts by the US to isolate its perceived enemies through sanctions and expropriations of foreign reserves have backfired. Foreign governments are reluctant to buy US bonds – essential for keeping the American economy afloat. The de-dollarisation trend has accelerated, as nations seek to protect themselves from unilateral US economic action.

Trump’s blatant disregard for international law in his treatment of both Venezuela and Iran are likely to force countries of the Global South to seek alternative groupings to safeguard themselves from US aggression. The growth of the Shanghai Co-operation Organisation and the establishment of the Alliance of Sahel States are symptomatic of the unease of the Global South.

The unfolding crisis in Venezuela has therefore become a focal point for debates about sovereignty, international law, and the future of global power relations. For many in the Global South, the events are viewed through the lens of historical memory of colonialism, intervention, and the struggle for self‑determination. Whether the international community will respond with the same unity that confronted the Suez invasion remains to be seen, but the stakes for global norms and regional stability are undeniably high.

(Asia Progress Forum is a collective of like-minded intellectuals, professionals, and activists dedicated to building dialogue that promotes Sri Lanka’s sovereignty, development, and increasing leadership in the Global South.)

by Asia Progress Forum

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