The future – Part I

Authors: Emeritus Professor I.M. Dharmadasa; Emeritus Professor Lakshman Dissanayake; Emeritus Professor Oliver Ileperuma; Professor Wijendra Bandara; Ms Nilmini Roelens; Mr Saroj Pathirana; Professor Chulananda Gunasekara; Eng. Parakrama Jayasinghe; Dr Keerthi Devendra; Dr Geewananda Gunawardana; Dr Lakmal Fernando; Dr Vidhura Ralapanawa; Dr. Ajith Weerasinghe.

Summary

The relevant energy technology mix for Sri Lanka at present is indigenous large hydro & mini-hydro systems, biomass, solar farms and solar PV on roof tops, wind and imported fossil fuels.

Sri Lanka is very vulnerable to climate change and made international commitments in relation to an energy transition towards 100% zero Carbon technologies by 2050.

The national electricity grid should be upgraded in a phased manner to absorb more renewables which are freely available and move towards achieving a smart grid.

Current efforts should also be focused on rapid expansion of renewable applications and gradual reduction of the use of imported, expensive and polluting fossil fuels. Other energy solutions such as nuclear are highly inappropriate, unaffordable and dangerous for Sri Lanka.

A phased move towards a smart grid will enable Sri Lanka to produce the future energy carrier, green hydrogen, using excess renewables, and becoming independent and secure as an energy exporting country. Sri Lanka should not miss the green hydrogen revolution and must not regress by remaining dependent on imports of globally dwindling fossil fuel with its environmental and geopolitical risks.

1.0 Introduction

The national electricity grid in Sri Lanka has been failing several times recently, plunging the entire country into darkness, with six countrywide blackouts during the past five years.

The Ceylon Electricity Board (CEB) attributes the instability to an outdated grid that cannot accommodate small-scale renewable energy providers. This was proven to be a false premise according to their own committee of investigation. However, the CEB has issued press releases calling for the shutting down of both rooftop solar systems and mini-hydro systems during festive periods, when the demand for power is lower, the implication being that micro-renewable energy is somehow the cause of the problem.

The CEB clearly does not favour renewable energy from small suppliers. It is, nevertheless, unacceptable to maintain the status quo with imported fossil fuels and high energy prices. Renewable energy is sustainable and cheaper energy prices will not only help us improve the standard of living of all and attract investors, thereby enhancing job opportunities and national income.

This article openly discusses this energy crisis, considers the root causes of the situation, weighs up current trends in the rest of the world, and recommends a way forward for Sri Lanka’s future in relation to its energy needs.

2.0 Energy Supply options for Sri Lanka

Sri Lanka has made several energy-related commitments to the United Nations, including reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 14.5% by 2030, achieving 70% renewable energy in electricity generation by 2030, and aiming for net-zero emissions by 2050. Sri Lanka also signed the No New Coal Energy Compact, committing to not building any new coal power plants. These commitments align with obligations under the Paris Agreement and the UN Sustainable Development Goals.

Is the current energy policy in keeping with these commitments?

The relevant energy technology mix currently is indigenous large hydro & mini-hydro systems, biomass, solar PV on rooftops and solar parks, wind and imported fossil fuels. The term biomass includes the Dendro project, biogas and energy from waste.

Other possible renewable energy sources like waves and tidal are not yet feasible for Sri Lanka. Imported LPG is promoted by the authorities with inaccurate claims of LNG as a clean fuel and information as to the cost of generation is somewhat misleading.

Other energy technologies like geo-thermal and nuclear are not suitable for our island nation not only due to the scarcity of large capital funds (without becoming dependent on and susceptible to foreign geo-political interests) but also the magnitude of their inherent dangers. Nuclear energy cannot meet urgent energy needs. Nuclear power presents further serious issues including problems such as enormous capital costs for commissioning, disposal of radioactive toxic waste, the risk of irreparable damage from nuclear accidents due to natural and manmade causes such as potential harm from tsunami, terror attacks, risks from power failures, and gigantic de-commissioning costs. Nuclear energy is thus not “clean” energy although its proponents seek to present it as such.

3.0 World Energy Scenarios

Since the industrial revolution fossil fuel has advanced two thirds of the world’s population. Most of the infrastructure has been established to use carbon-based fossil fuels (coal, diesel & petrol and natural gas).

This carbon economy has caused numerous issues such as air and environmental pollution, serious health issues, and wider problems like global warming and climate change. Sri Lanka has no indigenous fossil fuel resources and thus our energy security is gravely threatened by heavy reliance of imports.

The remaining one third of the world’s population is not connected to electric grids, suffer from abject poverty and are vulnerable to the heavy storms, flash floods, cyclones, hurricanes and tornadoes many of which are engendered by climate change, brought about by “the advancement” of the other two thirds.

Sri Lanka is said to rank as the sixth country most at risk from climate change.

worldwide community is now moving rapidly to take action to decarbonise the world to mitigate climate change risks.

4.0 The Global Energy Transition

It would be pertinent to begin this discussion with the data presented in a report published in 2024 by the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA). This has compared the energy use in the world in 2022 with the projected target use in 2050. (See Table)

The main trends of this energy transition are due to many reasons.

For both climatic reasons as well as equity, the use of fossil fuels will be drastically reduced from 63% to 12%, in favour of direct renewables, which will be doubled from 23% to 52%. Modern biomass and hydrogen are also indirect renewables and hence the total use of renewables would be 81%.

5.0 Unique opportunity for Sri Lanka to export Green Hydrogen

Common complaints about the two main renewables, solar and wind power, are said to be their intermittency. Scientists have however been working to solve this problem, and besides storage options, the solution will be the forthcoming Green Hydrogen revolution.

The future energy carrier will be green hydrogen produced by solar and wind power, which are available in great abundance for us. Throughout the world a GH revolution is taking place.

The pressurised hydrogen can be stored, transported and burned whenever needed to produce power, or as a source of thermal energy.

The important takeaway is that when hydrogen is burned for power, only water vapour is produced, without any air pollution. Only water vapour is produced during the burning of hydrogen without any air pollution. GH can be stored and burned whenever energy is needed, especially during nighttime.

A ready market exists in the shipping industry which already has stringent deadlines to reduce the use of fossil fuels. Green hydrogen is also used to produce ammonia and methanol, enabling the production of fertilisers and other chemicals in industry. Since hydrogen is a versatile future fuel, scaling up and commercialisation of this innovative energy source is taking place globally.

If Sri Lanka is astute, it can capture a large share of these markets being blessed with year-round sunshine or monsoon rains together with wind power.

According to the statistics published by the Sri Lanka Sustainable Energy Authority (SLSEA), the potential of solar and wind power are 104,000 MW and 102,000 MW, respectively. This brings the total of solar and wind power potential to 206,000 MW whereas the present Sri Lankan power production capacity is in fact less than 5,000 MW.

Our country is thus “sitting on a goldmine” in the forthcoming green hydrogen revolution. However, focusing doggedly on fossil fuels Sri Lanka is at considerable risk of “missing the bus”.

Having missed several opportunities in the past, including in the Information Technology (IT) and Bio-Technology fields, our neighbours saw the opportunities and have been developing their countries exponentially in these sectors.

Instead of continuing to import expensive fossil fuels, Sri Lanka would be able to export the green hydrogen produced using our freely available solar and wind power.

Exports can be to those countries which are not blessed with such natural resources, notably those in the northern hemisphere such as Europe and North America and bring much needed foreign income.

This is also a far better and safer option than the proposed HVDC cable connection with India, which is fraught with many Energy Security and national sovereignty issues,

Green Hydrogen produced with renewables would help the Sri Lankan economy grow rapidly with an enormous boost of foreign income and redressing any balance of trade deficits that currently blight our nation.

It is a no brainer.

6.0 What is the shape of energy in Sri Lanka now?

The CEB’s position is that they cannot balance the grid due to the power produced and fed to the grid from privately owned roof top micro-solar and mini-hydro systems.

We note the press release of 13^th April 2025 to requiring the temporary pause of rooftop solar to protect grid stability. This claim is adequately debunked by the Committee report on the recent blackout. The link to the CEB press release is reproduced below for ease of reference.

The higher echelons of the CEB appear therefore to be seeking regressive measures contrary to the stated objectives of the present government and in violation of international obligations of Sri Lanka as a part of its Agenda 2030 or Agenda 2050.

The renewable energy sector could generate not only clean and affordable energy at a fraction of the price but also enormous skilled employment opportunities.

From three small solar companies in the early 1990s there are now over 300 active solar companies maintaining some 40,000 jobs for locals. Further development of micro renewables would assure not only thousands more jobs for engineers but will provide opportunities for more local women to be trained in installation and related engineering work as a part of the gender parity sustainable development goals.

The somewhat “reluctant” attitude of the CEB towards renewables is clear. If this is not the case, we would ask the CEB to state its position clearly and to demonstrate a genuine willingness to improve the national grid to enable Sri Lanka to be in lock step with the rest of the world on clean and renewable energy. Moreover, as a state-owned organisation we urge the new Government authorities to require the CEB comply with international commitments and trends.

The remainder of this article looks in depth at these issues and provides recommendations.

7.0 The Main issues for the power sector in Sri Lanka

7.1 CEB’s preoccupation with imported and expensive fossil fuels

During the early stages of renewable energy development, one might have imagined that a certain “visionary approach” would have been necessary as these technologies were relatively expensive just as with any other new technologies. However, far thinking researchers in the field saw the limitless potential and impact renewables presented for the development of Sri Lanka and now renewables present the cheapest, cleanest and safest of energy options.

Interest in renewable energy increased over time and led to the formation of the Sri Lanka Sustainable Energy Authority in 2007 and the introduction of programmes such as the “Soorya Bala Sangramaya” in 2011 with Net Metering and further expansion in 2016 with Net Accounting and Net Plus schemes.

In the early 1990s, an RE consortium was established using a Higher Education Link programme between the UK and Sri Lanka and this organised a series of high-profile conferences.

At one of these conferences, the policymaker of the CEB declared “The future of Sri Lanka is Coal, Coal & Coal“. The position appears not to have shifted. What is the reason for this regressive approach? Developed countries have been closing their coal mines since coal belongs to the dark ages of energy supplies.

Fossil fuels are finite resources; coal is the most damaging fuel, and it adds carbon dioxide, sulphur dioxide, nitrous oxide, and particulate matter contributing both environmental pollution and respiratory illness. Coal ash, produced at a rate of 291,000 tons a year, is another hazard, . It is dumped on open ground currently.

(To be concluded)

It may hurt our pride, but we must admit that our Buddhist education has failed. It adheres to the tradition of memorizing, especially post canonical poetry and commentaries while discouraging critical thinking. The current sorry state of social institutions is living evidence of that failure. Solutions to chronic problems of this nature will take time to bear results, but there is no better time to act than now. We must teach the future generations, using terms they understand, that Dhamma is a way to see the reality of nature and our place in it, and knowing it with wisdom will allow us to live a happy and successful life here and now. We must stress the fact, and be proud of it, that Dhamma is not only compatible with science, but it is also ahead of our times, a unique feature. Future generations of Sangha must be trained to critically evaluate the utility of prevailing practices that Buddha had rejected. Understanding Dhamma does not have to wait for the arrival of a Buddha who is not even mentioned in the Pali Canon. Let us teach future generations, in their language, that Dhammam Saranam means is to ‘Face life armed with the wisdom of Dhamma, free of baseless beliefs and futile rituals.’

(The first part of this article appeared yesterday)

A third characteristic derived from this first principle has to do with human knowledge, or the way they know about their world. Dhamma describes the cognitive process, or the way humans become aware of their world, using the formula referred to as the Five Aggregates (Pancakkhanda). Dhamma ascribes knowledge to what is acquired through the sense organs consisting of eye, ear, nose, tongue, and the body, and deliberations by mind, which is the sixth sense faculty. The stimuli received by the sense organs (Vedana) are received by the brain in the form of electrochemical signals (Sanna), where that data is interpreted and assembled into mental formations (Sankhara).

The brain is isolated from the outside world and relies solely on the information sent by the sense organs to construct an image of the object or phenomenon that caused the stimulus. There is a major shortcoming in this process. That is, there is no way humans can know how accurately the mind interprets the information in constructing mental images. Humans think they see, hear, taste, smell and feel things, but they only become aware of things. Awareness and reality are not the same, and we have no way of knowing how close the former represents the latter. Furthermore, the sense organs, brain, and its activities, as well as all phenomena the sense organs encounter are in flux. Human sense organs have not evolved to see reality, yet we become aware of our world through this process and get attached to them. Dhamma describes this process, the Five Aggregates, as the human condition, or Dukkha in Pali (Sankittena pancupadanakkhanda dukkha).

These limitations of the human cognitive system that the Buddha described two and half millennia ago, have been confirmed by modern science. Dhamma describes this as a state of ignorance (Avijja). That means humans have no way of knowing how closely the mental construct of their world represents reality. This is a subject of quantum physics as well. Einstein described this condition as an illusion, and he said that the purpose of any religion should be to help humans overcome this condition. That is exactly what Dhamma is about: it considers life, the condition in which humans must deal with things that are in flux and beyond control, while not knowing reality is unsatisfactory. It describes this condition as Dukkha. That does not mean life is misery; there is nothing good or bad about life, life is what it is.

Dhamma does not stop there, it also explains the arising (Samudaya), cessation (Nirodha), and the way to cessation (Magga) of this condition. Teaching describes the cause and condition for human condition as ignorance, and the way to eliminate it is to develop the mind to be able to see things as they really are (yathabutha nanadassana). To know that without doubt, one must experience it, know it without names and labels; and the way to accomplish it is described in the Noble Eight-fold Path, also known as the Middle Path (Majjima Patipada).

In essence, Dhamma can be described as nature, truth, law, and the way things are. That is, the purpose of Dhamma is to see the reality of nature and human’s place in it. There is no mysticism or beliefs involved. What is the significance of understanding the position of humans in nature? The one who knows the way will not go astray!

Since everything is in flux, everything is interconnected. As such, human life depends on everything else in nature, and humans must take that into account in all their actions, talking, and even thinking. The science behind how thinking matters is another fascinating aspect to explore. This is where the Buddhist ethics come into play. Buddhist ethics are not decrees of a superpower, they are a set of guidance or conventions that are in harmony with nature’s way. They allow humans to live a happy, harmonious, and prosperous life here and now and make the planet a safe place for all beings. Look at our country; it is disregarding the ethical behavior that has caused the failure of socio-economic institutions of the country.

Now, we can turn to the second part of the question, what is the meaning of Saranam? Even though it is implied in the goal of Dhamma, it must be clarified whether this constitutes an appeal to an authority to bestow its blessings upon those in need, or if it represents a directive. The Pali-English dictionary translates Saranam as Refuge, Protection, Salvation, and Nirvana. A Pali-Sanskrit scholar who analyses the etymology of the word Saranam explains it as to mean defence, shield, not running away from, and providing protection in a fight (Whelan 2022). This explanation gives a sense of active participation or being the agent of the action instead of being the passive beneficiary of a power, as opposed to what is conveyed by dictionary translations.

Dhammam Saranam Gacchami does not mean passively waiting for some blessing to be bestowed upon us. To reap the benefits of Dhamma, one must understand it and live accordingly. Memorising it or listening to recitations in a now extinct language does not serve the purpose. There is no mystery or higher powers involved. Therefore, this phrase can be interpreted as ‘I face the human condition armed with the wisdom of Dhamma.’

A brief investigation of the reasons for the failure of Buddhist education is warranted here. When the Sangha prioritised learning and memorisation of Dhamma over practice, they did the right thing: Dhamma is preserved and safe. Unfortunately, to fill the void created by lack of interpretation and practice, our ancestors have adopted beliefs, practices, and rituals from other cultures that exist on the island, and it is those complex set of practices developed over centuries that the Westerners labeled as Buddhism. Most alarmingly, the process of adding new rituals continues to date.

Theravada is one tradition, or a school, among thirteen or so existing such traditions. To Sri Lankans, it is of paramount importance; not only that it has become an integral part of our large culture, but it is also the system that ensured the perpetuation of Dhamma and made it available to the world. However, we must have the wisdom and courage to see that the Dhamma and Buddhism are two different things, for Dhamma has no ‘ism’ in it. We must appreciate the origin and purpose of those practices and continue to protect and preserve those that have practical utility but critically evaluate and reject those that are utterly meaningless. The time has come to use the treasure that generations sacrificed blood and sweat to protect, and that is the best way to preserve it.

The Buddha recognised that the goals of the monastics and the laity are different, and he provided different sets of guidance accordingly. Monastics, free of household impediments, strive to reach the highest goal of Dhamma, whereas the laity must endeavor for a happy and prosperous life while fulfilling their responsibilities to the family, society, and Sasana at the same time. Since it has been the monastics who had been the purveyors of Dhamma, those aspects relevant to laity and their life here and now have been overlooked. The entire focus has shifted to the wellbeing in the hereafter at the expense of life here and now. The socio-economic breakdown we struggle with is a direct result of this misguided belief. This is not what the Buddha had advised; his teaching has utility whether one believes in continuity (samsara) or not (Kalama sutta). If we live an ethical and moral life, the benefits will result here and now as well as here after. Sadly, misguided, we have ruined both.

The other reason is giving priority to “the higher doctrine” or Buddhist philosophy in attempts to understand Dhamma. This led modern scholars to analyse Buddhist philosophy from the perspective of Western philosophy in hopes of discovering its empiricism (Tilakaratne 2021). Efforts in this direction have produced great scholarly work that allows the students of higher studies to analyse Dhamma, but they do not help the laypeople to bridge the gap in education. Instead of exegesis, we must rely on Buddha’s teaching itself.

Finally, the language is a major obstacle. We must not overlook the fact that the language and the style of the Pali Canon were meant for the iron age society. The scholarship is valuable only if it results in new thinking or interpretations, but that does not appear to be happening in recent times. We must recognise the value of the language of science as an invaluable tool in this respect. It may not work for all ages, but that is the way to get the message across to technology savvy future generations. What other better way to teach complex concepts like pancakkhanda, the human cognitive process than using science? Once they see the practicality of this approach, the students will embrace their proud heritage for being ahead of time and will turn into explore more complex concepts such as rebecoming (punabbhava) and continuity (samsara), which also can be explained based on scientific observations.

It may hurt our pride, but we must admit that our Buddhist education has failed. It adheres to the tradition of memorizing, especially post canonical poetry and commentaries while discouraging critical thinking. The current sorry state of social institutions is living evidence of that failure. Solutions to chronic problems of this nature will take time to bear results, but there is no better time to act than now. We must teach the future generations, using terms they understand, that Dhamma is a way to see the reality of nature and our place in it, and knowing it with wisdom will allow us to live a happy and successful life here and now. We must stress the fact, and be proud of it, that Dhamma is not only compatible with science, but it is also ahead of our times, a unique feature. Future generations of Sangha must be trained to critically evaluate the utility of prevailing practices that Buddha had rejected. Understanding Dhamma does not have to wait for the arrival of a Buddha who is not even mentioned in the Pali Canon. Let us teach future generations, in their language, that Dhammam Saranam means is to ‘Face life armed with the wisdom of Dhamma, free of baseless beliefs and futile rituals.’

(Concluded)

by Geewananda Gunawardana, Ph.D.

Thank you for publishing the article written by Mr Arjuna Hulugalle on my British Empire Medal award. I appreciate the prominence you have given the accolade, but I just wanted to bring to your notice that there was an incorrect reference to charges for patient consultations made by my late parents Dr and Dr Mrs Navaratnam.

I believe it was a type written error and it should read “to every patient the consultation fee was rupees three (NOT Rs 300.00” as stated in the article). My parents did not believe in taking money from their patients as theirs was a service to humanity, but if they did charge patients it was a nominal fee of three rupees or more often than not free of charge.

I hope you will publish this correction on my behalf as my late parents left a tremendous legacy of humanity, kindness and compassion and this does not reflect what they stood for.

Preshanthi Navaratnam