Business

Currency Board: A solution to Sri Lanka’s economic crisis?

Published

4 years ago

2022/04/5

Sahan Weerasooriya

Figure 1: Behaviour of USDT Market in P2P Binance Trading Platform

By Dr Asanka Wijesinghe

On 08 March, Sri Lanka devalued the rupee against the US dollar, entering into a floating exchange rate regime. The Central Bank of Sri Lanka had to abandon the pegged exchange rate as defending the rupee with dwindling reserves was impossible. The inter-bank exchange rate shot up once the banks were assured that the exchange rate was floated. The initial shoot-up was followed by further rallying of the US dollar reaching close to Rs. 300 per USD. With the gradually weakening rupee, inflation is also ascending to worrisome levels calling for radical changes, including adopting a currency board. This article discusses the effectiveness and suitability of a currency board for Sri Lanka in the current macroeconomic context.

Weakening Rupee, Rising inflation, and the

Currency Board Solution

A currency board is a system that issues domestic banknotes in exchange for specific foreign currency – anchor currency like the USD which is used for trade with partner countries – at a constant rate. A cornerstone of the currency board mechanism is the authority’s ability to meet all demand for foreign currency by the holders of the domestic currency.

In Sri Lanka, even after the rupee was floated, reports suggest that an active kerb market with a significant premium above the inter-bank rate exists. While such market behaviour indicates an acute dollar shortage in the market and the equilibrium rate is further away, no official data exists on the kerb market money exchange. However, cryptocurrency platforms provide some critical insights. The Tether coin (USDT), which is closely pegged to the US dollar on a one-to-one basis, is traded for rupees on peer-to-peer (P2P) platforms as USDT is used as a medium to purchase other cryptocurrencies, including Bitcoin.

Data extracted from the P2P platform medium of Binance – a popular cryptocurrency exchange among Sri Lankans – show some supporting evidence for the continually widening gap between official and informal rates again. Significantly, the premium over the official rate plummeted once the rupee was floated, but it gradually recovered to the pre-floated period (A and B panels of Figure 1). The number of sellers and the USDT volume available for sale also went up but riveted back to the levels of the pre-floated period (C and D panels of Figure 1).

The inflationary pressure also does not show any unwinding signs, further eroding people’s purchasing power. These developments encourage the adoption of a currency board as a currency board is believed to be a solution for rising inflation. By the inner mechanics of the currency boards, the independence of discretionary monetary policy is taken away, substituting a disciplined monetary policy – a gold standard without gold – which eliminates the inflationary bias. Indeed, empirical evidence exists in favour of the anti-inflationary effect of currency boards. The inflation rate is lower under currency boards than in pegged or floating rate regimes. Moreover, economies under currency boards grew faster than the average of countries with pegged regimes. However, empirically disentangling multiple influences to pinpoint the low inflation on the currency board is an excruciating task.

Another selling point of the currency board is the fiscal discipline, as currency board regulations prohibit direct monetary financing of government expenditures. A high budget deficit in Sri Lanka and excessive government borrowings from the Central Bank make the fiscal-discipline effect of currency boards much more appealing. Empirical evidence points to low fiscal deficits or larger surpluses under currency board regimes.

Source: Author’s illustration using Binance data

Challenges in Adopting a Currency Board

A significant drawback of a currency board is the need to surrender the monetary policy independence required for managing asymmetric shocks. Such loss is costly when the anchor currency country responds to cyclical conditions, which are different from the prevailing conditions in the country operating the currency board. For example, Hong Kong’s currency board imported low-interest rates from the US in the early 1990s. Such monetary easing was appropriate for the US, but Hong Kong faced an asset price boom that called for monetary tightening. A counterargument against the negative impact of losing monetary policy is the availability of fiscal policy at the operating country’s disposal. However, the maneuverability of fiscal policy is determined by the fiscal and debt positions. In Sri Lanka’s context, the high debt to GDP ratio and fiscal deficits might restrict the use of fiscal policy for pump-priming-stimulating the economy in a recessionary period- due to the fear of losing investor confidence in debt sustainability. Thus, international evidence shows that countries with hard pegged exchange rate regimes generally tighten their fiscal policy in a recession. The Argentinian attempts to bring down the deficit in a recession in 2000 proved to be disastrous.

Sri Lanka’s high indebtedness will also challenge installing a currency board. Once a threat of a possible default looms, the interest rates soar, and refinancing debt will be increasingly difficult. In addition, the operating country needs reserves to back the monetary base in a currency board. In a currency board, the board must continually convert domestic currency for the anchor currency at a constant rate. It should be noted that the reserve level of Sri Lanka has dwindled over time in the recent past. Another drawback of currency boards is the requirement of real sector changes to compensate for the exchange rate deviations. For example, if the anchor currency appreciates against Sri Lanka’s main trading partners, wages should fall to compensate for the increase in foreign consumer prices, restoring competitiveness. Such an exercise needs greater flexibility in the labour markets. Thus, the flexibility of labour markets is a key to the sustainability of currency boards. The political feasibility of the institutional attempts to ease labour market regulations is highly doubtful.

Against this backdrop, the decision to install a currency board should be taken after a careful cost-benefit analysis. A currency board will be helpful to stabilise inflation in the short run but in the long run, Sri Lanka will be better off with a more flexible exchange rate regime. In addition, the benefits of a currency board are not exclusive. For example, fiscal discipline should be stronger in flexible exchange rate regimes as fiscal policy effects are reflected immediately and more transparently. Thus, if Sri Lanka enters into a currency board to stabilise inflation and domestic currency, it needs to contemplate an exit strategy. Generally, it is advisable to leave a currency board when the economy recovers. The requirement to surrender monetary independence and the inability to finance government expenditure under a currency board might reduce the political preference for such a system.

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Business

IMF talks conclude without staff-level agreement as Sri Lanka prepares November Budget

Published

17 hours ago

2026/09/24

Sahan Weerasooriya

Fund says discussions will continue on policies and parameters needed to complete the Seventh Review

By Sanath Nanayakkare

Sri Lanka’s latest talks with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) have concluded without a staff-level agreement on the policies and parameters required to complete the Seventh Review of its Extended Fund Facility (EFF), leaving further discussions ahead as the government prepares its next Budget.

An IMF team led by Mission Chief Evan Papageorgiou visited Sri Lanka from September 10 to 23 for discussions on the Seventh Review and the 2026 Article IV Consultation.

The Fund said the discussions with Sri Lankan authorities had been productive, but would continue in the near term towards reaching agreement on the parameters and policies needed to complete the Seventh Review.

The outcome therefore represents a delay in reaching the formal staff-level milestone rather than a breakdown in negotiations.

The latest mission comes as Sri Lanka moves from economic stabilisation towards longer-term structural transformation, while continuing to face external shocks and domestic fiscal pressures.

The IMF said economic activity expanded by 4.2 percent in the second quarter of 2026, marking the 11th consecutive quarter of growth. At the same time, the Fund cautioned that downside risks remained, particularly amid an uncertain external environment.

Gross official reserves had risen to US$6.9 billion by the end of August, while the banking sector remained well capitalised and profitable, providing some buffers against external pressures.

A major focus of the IMF’s latest assessment was Sri Lanka’s revenue position.

The Fund said developing and implementing a strong medium-term revenue strategy would be critical to sustaining revenue mobilisation and strengthening fiscal resilience.

It stressed the need to broaden the tax base, rationalise tax exemptions and incentives, and strengthen revenue administration and compliance.

The IMF also emphasised the importance of maintaining cost-recovery energy pricing and improving the efficiency and fairness of the tax system in order to reduce fiscal vulnerabilities.

These issues assume particular significance as the government prepares its next Budget, with the authorities seeking to balance revenue mobilisation and fiscal consolidation against the need to sustain economic recovery.

The Fund’s latest position does not indicate that negotiations have broken down. Rather, the IMF has said that discussions will continue towards reaching agreement on the remaining policies and parameters required to conclude the Seventh Review.

The latest talks follow the combined Fifth and Sixth Reviews, for which IMF staff and Sri Lankan authorities reached a staff-level agreement in April, subject to completion of the remaining requirements before consideration by the IMF Executive Board.

For Sri Lanka, the immediate challenge is therefore to preserve the gains made in macroeconomic stabilisation while addressing the remaining issues under the IMF programme and preparing a Budget capable of supporting longer-term fiscal and economic resilience.

With further discussions expected in the near term, the Seventh Review remains a work in progress as Sri Lanka enters another critical stage of its economic reform programme.

Notably, the IMF has yet to publicly specify the outstanding issues that remain to be resolved.

Business

UK digital expertise and Sri Lankan business leaders unite to explore growth through technology

Published

17 hours ago

2026/09/24

Sahan Weerasooriya

British High Commissioner Andrew Patrick

British High Commissioner Andrew Patrick hosted UK digital product consultancy Apadmi at Westminster House, his official residence in Colombo, for an invite-only forum bringing together senior business leaders from across Sri Lanka’s retail, banking, telecommunications, hospitality and public sectors.

The event, “Turning Digital Assets into Growth Engines”, marked Apadmi’s first official event in Sri Lanka since establishing its Colombo office in 2025, and was delivered in partnership with the British High Commission as part of ongoing efforts to strengthen UK and Sri Lanka commercial and technology ties.

Guests were welcomed by High Commissioner Andrew Patrick, followed by a keynote from Niresh Muthuratnanandan, Head of Omni Commerce, Digital & Loyalty at Keells Supermarkets, who spoke about the launch of the Keells Nexus app and the modernisation of a loyalty programme serving 2.9 million members.

A panel discussion followed, hosted by Mark Collin, Chief Growth Officer at Apadmi, and featuring Malik Induruwana, Chief Information Officer at HSBC Sri Lanka & Maldives; Jiffry Zulfer, Founder and CEO of PickMe; Uthpala Pinnaduwahewa of Hatton National Bank; and Marcus Hadfield, Chief Strategy Officer at Apadmi.

The discussion centred on the commercial opportunity created by Sri Lanka’s rapid mobile adoption. According to [source], mobile data usage in the country reached 1.03 million terabytes in Q2 2026, a 31% increase year on year, against 29.4 million mobile subscriptions. With 71% of devices now smartphones or tablets, speakers discussed how Sri Lankan businesses could convert growing digital engagement into customer loyalty, new revenue and operational efficiency.

British High Commissioner Andrew Patrick said:

“It was a pleasure to welcome Apadmi and such a strong group of business leaders to Westminster House for this event. The UK and Sri Lanka have a longstanding partnership, and digital innovation is an increasingly important part of that relationship. Apadmi’s decision to establish a base in Colombo reflects the confidence that UK companies have in Sri Lanka’s digital economy, and I look forward to seeing this partnership continue to grow to the benefit of both our countries.”

Mark Collin, Chief Growth Officer at Apadmi, said:

“Being hosted by the British High Commission was a real privilege, and a fitting way to mark the next stage of our commitment to Sri Lanka. To bring leaders from Keells, HSBC, PickMe and Hatton National Bank into the same room says a great deal about the ambition here. We opened our Colombo office because we believe Sri Lanka is at a genuine turning point; the talent is exceptional, and we are proud to be building here for the long term.”

Business

Planters’ Association Chairman proposes 5-point plan for industry revival at 172nd AGM

Published

17 hours ago

2026/09/24

Sahan Weerasooriya

Seated from left to right: newly elected Deputy Chairman of the Planters’ Association of Ceylon (PAC), Binesh Pananwala; Secretary General, Lalith Obeyesekere; newly elected Chairman, Shanaka Samaradiwakara; Governor of the Central Bank of Sri Lanka, Dr. Nandalal Weerasinghe; and Chairman of the Sri Lanka Tea Board, Raj Obeyesekere.

Malwatte Valley Plantations PLC Director / CEO, Shanaka Samaradiwakara was appointed as Chairman of the Planters’ Association of Ceylon (PAC), while Kahawatte Plantations PLC Director / CEO Binesh Pananwala, was appointed as Deputy Chairman at the Association’s 172nd Annual General Meeting (AGM) on 19 September at the Cinnamon Grand.

The event was graced by Central Bank of Sri Lanka Governor, Dr. Nandalal Weerasinghe and Sri Lanka Tea Board Chairman, Raj Obeyesekere as Chief Guest and Guest of Honour respectively.

In his inaugural address, Samaradiwakara outlined a five-point vision for the plantation sector, focusing on value addition, research and development, land-use and productivity, irrigation and long-term security of tenure. He emphasised that the future of commercial agriculture in Sri Lanka would hinge on how effectively all industry stakeholders could work together, while maintaining clear understanding of the ground realities faced by producers.

Value-added tea accounted for more than 50% of total tea export volumes in 2025. Samaradiwakara noted Regional Plantation Companies (RPCs) have accounted for the majority of that volume through continuous investments, including most recently in matcha, green tea and artisanal teas.

In that context, he sought the support of the Sri Lanka Tea Board and the export sector to protect this emerging high value segment, given that significant quantities of green tea and other high-value teas remain unsold at auction while similar products continue to enter the country. “We respectfully request the authorities to review this matter and introduce appropriate measures to support domestic production and value addition,” he stated.

On research and development, he observed that commercially viable alternatives to several essential crop protection products remain limited. Accordingly, he called on the Tea, Rubber and Coconut Research Institutes to lead the development of practical, scientifically proven alternatives, while stressing that disease threatening the rubber industry requires immediate attention. “We cannot afford to repeat the experience of the coffee industry, where coffee blight devastated the sector,” he added.

Turning to issues around land-use policies and productivity, he noted that RPCs have diversified for over two decades in response to changing rainfall patterns, introducing crops such as oil palm, pepper and avocado. He warned that these investments are increasingly threatened by unsupportive policy, agricultural theft and crop damage by wild animals, costing companies millions of rupees each month in security. “It is imperative that these investments are protected through strong enforcement, appropriate regulatory reforms, and effective measures to address both agricultural theft and crop damage,” he noted. On irrigation, he appealed to the Government to relax archaic restrictions on groundwater use and simplify approvals for drilling tube wells in order to enhance climate resilience.

Addressing security of tenure, he highlighted that replanting often takes more than a decade to generate meaningful revenue, and that uncertainty over lease extensions is making it harder for RPCs to attract foreign direct investment and long-term financing. “If we are to attract fresh capital, accelerate replanting, modernise our plantations and improve productivity, security and certainty of tenure are mandatory,” he added.