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Climate and food price rise: Extreme weather events triggering unprecedented food inflation
At 14.23 per cent, India’s wholesale inflation rate in November 2021 was the highest in three decades. It did reduce marginally to 13.56 per cent the next month, according to government data released January 14, 2022. But even that is bad news for the Centre ahead of Assembly elections in five states, including politically significant Uttar Pradesh.
Wholesale price index (WPI) inflation is always a cause of concern as it can raise retail inflation. What’s worse, the price rise has been continuous — December 2021 was the ninth straight month of double-digit percentage increases in the WPI. Experts predict the situation to remain the same through the end of this financial year (March 30, 2022).
High December inflation was unexpected: The government had reduced taxes on fuels — a major add-on to overall inflation. So, why does inflation remain high?
As it emerges, food inflation — particularly the rise in prices of vegetables and a few grains — has been a driver of this episode of overall inflation. India’s wholesale price inflation peaked in November 2021 due to a surge in primary food inflation that hit a 13-month high.
Prices of seasonal vegetables jumped unprecedentedly in many states. And this was due to extreme weather events; and this trend is not limited to India.
Food inflation is rising across the world. On January 7, 2022, the Food and Agricultural Organisation’s (FAO’s) Food Price Index showed that food prices were at a decade-high, with an average rise of 28 percent over the previous year. Adjusting for inflation, the average food prices in the first 11 months of 2021 were at the highest in 46 years.
Abdol Reza Abbassian, senior economist with FAO, attributes the current food price rise primarily to climatic conditions. “While normally high prices are expected to give way to increased production, the high cost of inputs, ongoing global pandemic and ever more uncertain climatic conditions leave little room for optimism about a return to more stable market conditions even in 2022,” Abbassian said.
Between 1956 and 2010, there were nine double-digit inflation episodes. Of these, seven were caused by drought conditions, according to the Reserve Bank of India (RBI). In the past six decades, there have been three major episodes of significantly high food prices globally: 1970s, 2007-08 and 2010-14. All these were triggered by weather shocks followed by factors such as increase in oil prices, trade policy interventions and biofuel consumption. The current episode seems to be entirely driven by weather anomalies.
A similar situation caused the last high-price episode in 2019-2020. Rising prices of food items, particularly of vegetables, caused retail inflation to rise to a 68-month high of 7.59 per cent in January 2020.
Warming world, hotter prices
While the inflation figure captured headlines, a crucial analysis of the reasons behind this sustained increase in food prices slipped public attention. Extreme weather events had damaged crops, leading to a collapse of the supply of vegetables at a time of the year when they usually flood the markets.
On the basis of year-on-year comparison, vegetable prices had gone up by 50.19 percent since January 2019. They increased by 45.56 per cent in rural areas and markets during this period and by 59.31 percent in urban areas.
Of the six categories of consumption items used in tabulating the overall inflation figure, food and beverages recorded the highest price rise, thus increasing the overall inflation rate. In 2014, when inflation was an emotive political agenda, RBI pointed out:
One of the traditional explanations for rising food prices has been the supply-side shocks related to weather either because of droughts or floods.
The current global food inflation is driven predominantly by wheat, which reported price rise due to drought and high temperature in major producing countries. In 2021, as various trade reports show, spring wheat production declined by 40 percent in the United States. Russia, the world’s largest exporter of wheat, also harvested less and has now imposed a tax on wheat export to ensure ample stock for domestic consumption. Unusual frosts in Brazil’s coffee bean producing areas in July 2021 have led to a production dip of up to 10 percent.
News
GL: Proposed anti-terror laws will sound death knell for democracy
‘Media freedom will be in jeopardy’
Former Minister of Justice, Constitutional Affairs, National Integration and Foreign Affairs Prof. G. L. Peiris has warned that the proposed Protection of the State from Terrorism Act (PSTA) will deal a severe blow to civil liberties and democratic rights, particularly media freedom and the overall freedom of expression.
Addressing a press conference organised by the joint opposition alliance “Maha Jana Handa” (Voice of the People) in Colombo, Prof. Peiris said the proposed legislation at issue had been designed “not to protect people from terrorism but to protect the State.”
Prof. Peiris said that the proposed law would sound the death knell for the rights long enjoyed by citizens, with journalists and media institutions likely to be among those worst affected.
Prof. Peiris took exception to what he described as the generous use of the concept of “recklessness” in the draft, particularly in relation to the publication of statements and dissemination of material. He argued that recklessness was recognised in criminal jurisprudence as a state of mind distinct from intention and its scope was traditionally limited.
“In this draft, it becomes yet another lever for the expansion of liability well beyond the properly designated category of terrorist offences,” Prof. Peiris said, warning that the elasticity of the term could expose individuals to prosecution on tenuous grounds.
Prof. Peiris was particularly critical of a provision enabling a suspect already in judicial custody to be transferred to police custody on the basis of a detention order issued by the Defence Secretary.
According to the proposed laws such a transfer could be justified on the claim that the suspect had committed an offence prior to arrest of which police were previously unaware, he said.
“The desirable direction of movement is from police to judicial custody. Here, the movement is in the opposite direction,” Prof. Peiris said, cautioning that although the authority of a High Court Judge was envisaged, the pressures of an asserted security situation could render judicial oversight ineffective in practice.
Describing the draft as “a travesty rather than a palliative,” Prof. Peiris said the government had reneged on assurances that reform would address longstanding concerns about existing counter-terrorism legislation. Instead of removing objectionable features, he argued, the new bill introduced additional provisions not found in the current Prevention of Terrorism Act (PTA).
Among them is a clause empowering the Defence Secretary to designate “prohibited places”. That was a power not contained in the PTA but previously exercised, if at all, under separate legislation such as the Official Secrets Act of 1955. Entry into such designated places, as well as photographing, video recording, sketching or drawing them, would constitute an offence punishable by up to three years’ imprisonment or a fine of up to Rs. 3 million. Prof. Peiris said. Such provision would have a “particularly chilling effect” on journalists and media personnel, he noted.
The former minister and law professor also criticised the breadth of offences defined under the draft, noting that it sought to create 13 categories of acts carrying the label of terrorism. This, he said, blurred the critical distinction between ordinary criminal offences and acts of terrorism, which require “clear and unambiguous definition with no scope for elasticity of interpretation.”
He cited as examples offences such as serious damage to public property, robbery, extortion, theft, and interference with electronic or computerised systems—acts which, he argued, were already adequately covered under existing penal laws and did not necessarily amount to terrorism.
Ancillary offences, too, had been framed in sweeping terms, Prof. Peiris said. The draft legislation, dealing with acts ‘associated with terrorism,’ imposed liability on persons “concerned in” the commission of a terrorist offence. “This is a vague phrase and catch-all in nature.” he noted.
Similarly, under the subheading ‘Encouragement of Terrorism,’ with its reference to “indirect encouragement,” could potentially encompass a broad spectrum of protest activity, Prof. Peiris maintained, warning that the provision on “Dissemination of Terrorist Publications” could render liable any person who provides a service enabling others to access such material. “The whole range of mainstream and social media is indisputably in jeopardy,” Prof. Peiris said.
Former Minister Anura Priyadarshana Yapa and SLFP Chairman Nimal Siripala de Silva also addressed the media at the briefing.
by Saman Indrajith ✍️
News
SJB complains to bribery commission about alleged bid to interfere with evidence
SJB Gampaha District MP Harshana Rajakaruna has written to the Chairman of the Commission to Investigate Allegations of Bribery or Corruption (CIABOC), Neil Iddawala, urging immediate action over attempts to interfere with evidence relating to a corruption complaint against Speaker Jagath Wickramaratne and his private secretary, Chameera Gallage.
In his letter, Rajakaruna refers to a complaint lodged on February 2, 2026, by Parliament’s suspended Deputy Secretary General Chaminda Kularatne under the Anti-Corruption Act No. 9 of 2023, naming the Speaker and his private secretary.
The Opposition MP has stated that Gallage subsequently wrote to the Secretary General of Parliament on 06 February, seeking a report on matters connected to the complaint. Rajakaruna alleges that Gallage’s letter amounts to an attempt to conceal or alter evidence and to influence potential witnesses.
News
Substandard Ondansetron: CIABOC launches probe
The Commission to Investigate Allegations of Bribery or Corruption (CIABOC) has launched a probe into the distribution of substandard Ondansetron injections to state hospitals following the deaths of two patients who received the drug.
The stock of Ondansetron has been imported from an Indian pharmaceutical company and distributed to several hospitals, according to a complaint lodged with the CIABOC.
Two patients, one at the Kandy Hospital and another at the Mulleriyawa National Institute of Health Sciences, died after suffering adverse complications subsequent to the administration of the injection.
by Sujeewa Thathsara ✍️
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