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Chain Reactions and Energy Releases

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by Kumar David

Though I do have a particular interest in the JVP-NPP and am anxious to see the NPP’s ‘Rapid Response to Current Challenges’ manifesto developed and improved, this column not drafted exclusively for that purpose, though it may read like that. I would be happy if other social and political movements find it useful. But first an analogy; only laymen who studied physics in school will make sense of it, but my analogy last week with the Exodus of the best European scientists from Nazism in the 1930s generated interest. So here goes.

Neutron penetration of a U-235 nucleus within a critical mass makes everything go bananas; like Boris Johnson. Point 1: The nucleus fissions into Barium and Krypton and emits say two new neutrons. These two then bombard adjacent U-235 cores and so on and so on. The number of fission reactions multiply 2, 4, 8, zillions of times till all the U-235 is used up. Point 2: The mass of the fission products (Barium, Krypton and 2 neutrons) is a bit less than the mass of the initial U-235 plus one neutron, say by a tiny amount m. Even if you skipped A-Level physics in school (poor sod) you would have heard of E=mc2 where c is the velocity of light (300 million meters per second). One kg of U-235 produces the same energy as three million tons of coal. Jesus! Point, set and game to nuclear energy but for safety problems; radioactivity, waste disposal etc.

Deciding your species

The analogy with my subject today is this. Anyone who writes a manifesto must aim at a chain-reaction (ideas must spread like a fire) and make big gains in persuasion in the public domain. The NPP is the only entity that has issued a manifesto in this season; Sajith’s SJB is scratching its head and all the parties and goofs in the government fruit salad are scratching their ulcers. Wisely the NPP document is called “initial” so one can look to revised and improved versions to come. Hence it is implicit that comment will be welcome. NPP redrafts or anyone trying his/her hand at a programme must focus on four fundamentals.

State, constitution, provincial power, the National Question.

Economy: Productivity, growth-exports; fiscal gap; foreign debt; public-private-FDI balances.

Welfare: Healthcare, education, social services and infrastructure.

I separate out from the first point the National Question for special comment.

Foreign policy, economic dependence, nonalignment.

Taming corruption, enhancing public service efficiency, abolishing abuse of power by the police and halting militarisation are imperative – too well known to need repetition. I do not intend to write at length nor offer alternative drafts, only to highlight my thoughts. My intention is to make comments that may be useful to those updating the NPP document or writing fresh manifestos. Even in the latter case the NPP version will be the starting point since there is no point reinventing the wheel.

State and Constitution

In respect of constitution and state structures what has to be said is simple. It will have to be a liberal-democratic order based on the extensive and excellent work that was done in 2016-17 but was simply discarded; I refer to the seven Subcommittee Recommendations. More recently there have been the NMSJ proposal and Basil Fernando’s six-part series in Colombo Telegraph. The truth is there is already too much, not too little material to hand. Some basics are straightforward: JR’s Constitution, the Twentieth Amendment and the presidential system must be dumped as must some chapters and concepts in the Sirima-Colvin 1972 Constitution. At this juncture Lanka needs a democratic constitution, not a one-party arrangement nor a post-revolutionary structure. The devil is entirely in the details (balance of power between the so-called three pillars, constitutional committee systems, checks and balances, proportional, direct or mixed electoral options, provincial and regional balances). All possible options are out there and have been thrashed out ad nauseum for two decades; it’s a matter of opposition manifesto drafters zeroing in on bona fide compromises and getting on with it. The fly in the ointment is the ambition of scoundrels with presidential aspirations; other compromises can be worked out.

Economic systems and subsystems

It would appear that the economy is the hardest nut to crack; observe the inconclusive humming and hawing of all commentators and scholars who nevertheless agree that (a) to (f) set out below needs to be done. Their prevarication is for the sole reason that they are unwilling to commit themselves to the ‘big decision’. This is where my atomic analogy helps make the point. You have to make a commitment to a basic strategy, you pick a direction, the nature of the energy release process (U-235 or plutonium). The details, the specific answers to the specific questions (a) to (f) and their sub-questions are chain reactions that then fall into place.

Conceptually there are just two and only two choices between basics, between ‘energy release’ processes to select from; either the “capitalist road” (private investment, entrepreneurship, market dominance; for want of a better term the Western model) or a more socially or publicly directed model (for want of a better term the Vietnam, Mongolia, China model). Of course, there is scope and need for flexibility whichever the direction and that will take a lot more discussion. But two points are crucial. Once you know in which direction you are pointing answers to specific details in (a) to (f) fall within recognised alternative spectra. Second, I have discarded other systemic options (the Soviet or Cuban centralised state directed style and now discredited model, and the Reagan-Thatcher old-IMF championed ‘neoliberal’ option). The flabby neither here nor there stumbling methodology frequently employed in the past has failed all across the developing world.

(a) Enforce fiscal discipline.

(b) Implement reforms to enhance productivity.

(c) Prioritise manufacturing, shift to tech industries and emphasise exports.

(d) Make firm decisions about foreign capital investment and public-private enterprises.

(e) Clearly define the role of the capitalist sector and market economics.

(f) Enhance the efficiency of state machinery.

To drive home the argument that once the fundamental ‘energy release’ option is chosen the ‘chain reactions’ fairly easily fall into place, let me choose (a), (d) and (e) for brief comment. To enforce fiscal discipline (and please the IMF), you have to slash expenditure, increase revenue, or a bit of each with emphasis falling this way or that. Frugality in expenditure will impact people’s livelihood (sales tax, wage controls and labour-market reforms and slashing welfare expenditure). Or to secure more revenue the top income tax rate (just 16% now) must go up and the Central Bank’s interest rate just 3.5% now has to be pushed much higher. Either way the ‘energy-release’ option choice is political, it is JVP-NPP or Sajith-SJB; let this be said openly.

Of course, both options will need to make huge concessions to real-politics, that is good, but the two game-plans are clear-cut; the rest is ‘chain-reaction’. In respect of flexibility the NPP’s Rapid Response clearly indicates that it is sensitive to the role that the private-sector will perforce be called upon to play within its preferred direction for another generation – vide China. It would be wise from the point of view of the public, and reassure the capitalist class if the manifesto is fleshed out and details made more explicit.

Young Einstein

The choices that will be made by Sajith-SBJ ideology (conservative but couched in radical plumage); the market-driven, entrepreneurial-capital led road, is well understood. For example, on point (d) – foreign investment – it will be an open invitation sweetened by tax and remittance concessions. There is nothing conceptually new; it is in use in dozens of countries. I say no more on this matter as I can safely take it this a well-known strategy.

It is the other option, the more directed one, where the sate intervenes as the custodian of the public interest that needs the NPP drafter’s close attention. The government plays this role in varying degrees in India and in China, in Mongolia and in Mexico. I expect the second version of the NPP manifesto will measure up to addressing these variations which have so far been left incomplete. I also expect that the SJB cannot remain manifesto-less for much longer; 2022 is likely to be the year of the manifestos!

The godforsaken minorities!

Breathes there a Sinhala-Buddhist with soul so dead who never to himself hath said “This is my own my native land”? Or sworn “Will no one rid me of these turbulent minorities”? If only these blasted Tamils and Muslims and Catholics were to evaporate how peaceful Lanka would be, with what single mindedness could we devote ourselves to building a nation of splendour flowing with Gota blessed milk and honey.

Fat hopes! Absent Tamils and Muslims men of ill-will will find other causes to tear out each other’s throats and disembowel their neighbours. The loin-cloth versus keulas, hali versus tree-climbers, Kandyan snobs despising low-country plebeians, vellalas guarding their temple gates. No, I am not being facetious; if the social consciousness of a nation is primitive the behaviour of its people will be correspondingly primeval. Equitable answers to ethnic and religious conflicts exist, but getting the majority of people to accept any is daunting, and not only in Lanka.

Both the JVP-NPP and Sajith-SBJ, despite their chequered track records, can think up some sort of patchwork quilt of proposals, marketable to all sides – the SLPP cannot, even in theory. But however short of nirvana the NPP or SJB proposals on the national question fall, it is determination to deliver on promises (no more B-C and Dudley-Chelva circuses) not their absolute virtue that will count in the event that either forms a government. If you promise only 50% and only deliver forty you will be a hero; promise one hundred and riots, racism and a string of lies you will just be another fallen idol.



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Meet the women protecting India’s snow leopards

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These women work with the local forest department to track and protect the snow leopard species [BBC]

In one of India’s coldest and most remote regions, a group of women have taken on an unlikely role: protecting one of Asia’s most elusive predators, the snow leopard.

Snow leopards are found in just 12 countries across Central and South Asia. India is home to one of the world’s largest populations, with a nationwide survey in 2023 – the first comprehensive count ever carried out in the country – estimating more than 700 animals, .

One of the places they roam is around Kibber village in Himachal Pradesh state’s Spiti Valley, a stark, high-altitude cold desert along the Himalayan belt. Here, snow leopards are often called the “ghosts of the mountains”, slipping silently across rocky slopes and rarely revealing themselves.

For generations, the animals were seen largely as a threat, for attacking livestock. But attitudes in Kibber and neighbouring villages are beginning to shift, as people increasingly recognise the snow leopard’s role as a top predator in the food chain and its importance in maintaining the region’s fragile mountain ecosystem.

Nearly a dozen local women are now working alongside the Himachal Pradesh forest department and conservationists to track and protect the species, playing a growing role in conservation efforts.

Locally, the snow leopard is known as Shen and the women call their group “Shenmo”. Trained to install and monitor camera traps, they handle devices fitted with unique IDs and memory cards that automatically photograph snow leopards as they pass.

“Earlier, men used to go and install the cameras and we kept wondering why couldn’t we do it too,” says Lobzang Yangchen, a local coordinator working with a small group supported by the non-profit Nature Conservation Foundation (NCF) in collaboration with the forest department.

Yangchen was among the women who helped collect data for Himachal Pradesh’s snow leopard survey in 2024, which found that the state was home to 83 snow leopards – up from 51 in 2021.

Spiti Wildlife Division A snow leopard looks into the camera
Snow leopards are often called the “ghosts of the mountains” because they are so hard to spot [BBC]

The survey documented snow leopards and 43 other species using camera traps spread across an area of nearly 26,000sq km (10,000sq miles). Individual leopards were identified by the unique rosette patterns on their fur, a standard technique used for spotted big cats. The findings are now feeding into wider conservation and habitat-management plans.

“Their contribution was critical to identifying individual animals,” says Goldy Chhabra, deputy conservator of forests with the Spiti Wildlife Division.

Collecting the data is demanding work. Most of it takes place in winter, when heavy snowfall pushes snow leopards and their prey to lower altitudes, making their routes easier to track.

On survey days, the women wake up early, finish household chores and gather at a base camp before travelling by vehicle as far as the terrain allows. From there, they trek several kilometres to reach camera sites, often at altitudes above 14,000ft (4,300m), where the thin air makes even simple movement exhausting.

The BBC accompanied the group on one such trek in December. After hours of walking in biting cold, the women suddenly stopped on a narrow trail.

Yangchen points to pugmarks in the dust: “This shows the snow leopard has been here recently. These pugmarks are fresh.”

Devesh Chopra/BBC A woman wearing a black and red scarf writes something in her notebook and a camera trap is placed in front of her.
The women set up cameras with unique IDs and memory cards, which capture an image of a snow leopard as soon as it passes through [BBC]

Along with pugmarks, the team looks for other signs, including scrapes and scent‑marking spots, before carefully fixing a camera to a rock along the trail.

One woman then carries out a “walk test”, crawling along the path to check whether the camera’s height and angle will capture a clear image.

The group then moves on to older sites, retrieving memory cards and replacing batteries installed weeks earlier.

By mid-afternoon, they return to camp to log and analyse the images using specialised software – tools many had never encountered before.

“I studied only until grade five,” says Chhering Lanzom. “At first, I was scared to use the computer. But slowly, we learned how to use the keyboard and mouse.”

The women joined the camera-trapping programme in 2023. Initially, conservation was not their motivation. But winters in the Spiti Valley are long and quiet, with little agricultural work to fall back on.

“At first, this work on snow leopards didn’t interest us,” Lobzang says. “We joined because we were curious and we could earn a small income.”

The women earn between 500 ($5.46; £4) and 700 rupees a day.

But beyond the money, the work has helped transform how the community views the animal.

Spiti Wildlife Division A woman looks at a computer screen which has a grab of a leopard.
Images captured by the camera traps are analysed using a special software [BBC]

“Earlier, we thought the snow leopard was our enemy,” says Dolma Zangmo, a local resident. “Now we think their conservation is important.”

Alongside survey work, the women help villagers access government insurance schemes for their livestock and promote the use of predator‑proof corrals – stone or mesh enclosures that protect animals at night.

Their efforts come at a time of growing recognition for the region. Spiti Valley has recently been included in the Cold Desert Biosphere Reserve, a Unesco-recognised network aimed at conserving fragile ecosystems while supporting local livelihoods.

As climate change reshapes the fragile trans-Himalayan landscape, conservationists say such community participation will be crucial to safeguarding species like the snow leopard.

“Once communities are involved, conservation becomes more sustainable,” says Deepshikha Sharma, programme manager with NCF’s High Altitudes initiative.

“These women are not just assisting, they are becoming practitioners of wildlife conservation and monitoring,” she adds.

As for the women, their work makes them feel closer to their home, the village and the mountains that raised them, they say.

“We were born here, this is all we know,” Lobzang says. “Sometimes we feel afraid because these snow leopards are after all predatory animals, but this is where we belong.”

[BBC]

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Freedom for giants: What Udawalawe really tells about human–elephant conflict

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Too many vehicles entering national parks

If elephants are truly to be given “freedom” in Udawalawe, the solution is not simply to open gates or redraw park boundaries. The map itself tells the real story — a story of shrinking habitats, broken corridors, and more than a decade of silent but relentless ecological destruction.

“Look at Udawalawe today and compare it with satellite maps from ten years ago,” says Sameera Weerathunga, one of Sri Lanka’s most consistent and vocal elephant conservation activists. “You don’t need complicated science. You can literally see what we have done to them.”

What we commonly describe as the human–elephant conflict (HEC) is, in reality, a land-use conflict driven by development policies that ignore ecological realities. Elephants are not invading villages; villages, farms, highways and megaprojects have steadily invaded elephant landscapes.

Udawalawe: From Landscape to Island

Udawalawe National Park was once part of a vast ecological network connecting the southern dry zone to the central highlands and eastern forests. Elephants moved freely between Udawalawe, Lunugamvehera, Bundala, Gal Oya and even parts of the Walawe river basin, following seasonal water and food availability.

Today, Udawalawe appears on the map as a shrinking green island surrounded by human settlements, monoculture plantations, reservoirs, electric fences and asphalt.

“For elephants, Udawalawe is like a prison surrounded by invisible walls,” Sameera explains. “We expect animals that evolved to roam hundreds of square nationakilometres to survive inside a box created by humans.”

Elephants are ecosystem engineers. They shape forests by dispersing seeds, opening pathways, and regulating vegetation. Their survival depends on movement — not containment. But in Udawalawa, movement is precisely what has been taken away.

Over the past decade, ancient elephant corridors have been blocked or erased by:

Irrigation and agricultural expansion

Tourism resorts and safari infrastructure

New roads, highways and power lines

Human settlements inside former forest reserves

Sameera

“The destruction didn’t happen overnight,” Sameera says. “It happened project by project, fence by fence, without anyone looking at the cumulative impact.”

The Illusion of Protection

Sri Lanka prides itself on its protected area network. Yet most national parks function as ecological islands rather than connected systems.

“We think declaring land as a ‘national park’ is enough,” Sameera argues. “But protection without connectivity is just slow extinction.”

Udawalawe currently holds far more elephants than it can sustainably support. The result is habitat degradation inside the park, increased competition for resources, and escalating conflict along the boundaries.

“When elephants cannot move naturally, they turn to crops, tanks and villages,” Sameera says. “And then we blame the elephant for being a problem.”

The Other Side of the Map: Wanni and Hambantota

Sameera often points to the irony visible on the very same map. While elephants are squeezed into overcrowded parks in the south, large landscapes remain in the Wanni, parts of Hambantota and the eastern dry zone where elephant density is naturally lower and ecological space still exists.

“We keep talking about Udawalawe as if it’s the only place elephants exist,” he says. “But the real question is why we are not restoring and reconnecting landscapes elsewhere.”

The Hambantota MER (Managed Elephant Reserve), for instance, was originally designed as a landscape-level solution. The idea was not to trap elephants inside fences, but to manage land use so that people and elephants could coexist through zoning, seasonal access, and corridor protection.

“But what happened?” Sameera asks. “Instead of managing land, we managed elephants. We translocated them, fenced them, chased them, tranquilised them. And the conflict only got worse.”

The Failure of Translocation

For decades, Sri Lanka relied heavily on elephant translocation as a conflict management tool. Hundreds of elephants were captured from conflict zones and released into national parks like Udawalawa, Yala and Wilpattu.

Elephant deaths

The logic was simple: remove the elephant, remove the problem.

The reality was tragic.

“Most translocated elephants try to return home,” Sameera explains. “They walk hundreds of kilometres, crossing highways, railway lines and villages. Many die from exhaustion, accidents or gunshots. Others become even more aggressive.”

Scientific studies now confirm what conservationists warned from the beginning: translocation increases stress, mortality, and conflict. Displaced elephants often lose social structures, familiar landscapes, and access to traditional water sources.

“You cannot solve a spatial problem with a transport solution,” Sameera says bluntly.

In many cases, the same elephant is captured and moved multiple times — a process that only deepens trauma and behavioural change.

Freedom Is Not About Removing Fences

The popular slogan “give elephants freedom” has become emotionally powerful but scientifically misleading. Elephants do not need symbolic freedom; they need functional landscapes.

Real solutions lie in:

Restoring elephant corridors

Preventing development in key migratory routes

Creating buffer zones with elephant-friendly crops

Community-based land-use planning

Landscape-level conservation instead of park-based thinking

“We must stop treating national parks like wildlife prisons and villages like war zones,” Sameera insists. “The real battlefield is land policy.”

Electric fences, for instance, are often promoted as a solution. But fences merely shift conflict from one village to another.

“A fence does not create peace,” Sameera says. “It just moves the problem down the line.”

A Crisis Created by Humans

Sri Lanka loses more than 400 elephants and nearly 100 humans every year due to HEC — one of the highest rates globally.

Yet Sameera refuses to call it a wildlife problem.

“This is a human-created crisis,” he says. “Elephants are only responding to what we’ve done to their world.”

From expressways cutting through forests to solar farms replacing scrublands, development continues without ecological memory or long-term planning.

“We plan five-year political cycles,” Sameera notes. “Elephants plan in centuries.”

The tragedy is not just ecological. It is moral.

“We are destroying a species that is central to our culture, religion, tourism and identity,” Sameera says. “And then we act surprised when they fight back.”

The Question We Avoid Asking

If Udawalawe is overcrowded, if Yala is saturated, if Wilpattu is bursting — then the real question is not where to put elephants.

The real question is: Where have we left space for wildness in Sri Lanka?

Sameera believes the future lies not in more fences or more parks, but in reimagining land itself.

“Conservation cannot survive as an island inside a development ocean,” he says. “Either we redesign Sri Lanka to include elephants, or one day we’ll only see them in logos, statues and children’s books.”

And the map will show nothing but empty green patches — places where giants once walked, and humans chose. roads instead.

By Ifham Nizam

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Challenges faced by the media in South Asia in fostering regionalism

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Main speaker Roman Gautam (R) and Executive Director, RCSS, Ambassador (Retd) Ravinatha Aryasinha.

SAARC or the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation has been declared ‘dead’ by some sections in South Asia and the idea seems to be catching on. Over the years the evidence seems to have been building that this is so, but a matter that requires thorough probing is whether the media in South Asia, given the vital part it could play in fostering regional amity, has had a role too in bringing about SAARC’s apparent demise.

That South Asian governments have had a hand in the ‘SAARC debacle’ is plain to see. For example, it is beyond doubt that the India-Pakistan rivalry has invariably got in the way, particularly over the past 15 years or thereabouts, of the Indian and Pakistani governments sitting at the negotiating table and in a spirit of reconciliation resolving the vexatious issues growing out of the SAARC exercise. The inaction had a paralyzing effect on the organization.

Unfortunately the rest of South Asian governments too have not seen it to be in the collective interest of the region to explore ways of jump-starting the SAARC process and sustaining it. That is, a lack of statesmanship on the part of the SAARC Eight is clearly in evidence. Narrow national interests have been allowed to hijack and derail the cooperative process that ought to be at the heart of the SAARC initiative.

However, a dimension that has hitherto gone comparatively unaddressed is the largely negative role sections of the media in the SAARC region could play in debilitating regional cooperation and amity. We had some thought-provoking ‘takes’ on this question recently from Roman Gautam, the editor of ‘Himal Southasian’.

Gautam was delivering the third of talks on February 2nd in the RCSS Strategic Dialogue Series under the aegis of the Regional Centre for Strategic Studies, Colombo, at the latter’s conference hall. The forum was ably presided over by RCSS Executive Director and Ambassador (Retd.) Ravinatha Aryasinha who, among other things, ensured lively participation on the part of the attendees at the Q&A which followed the main presentation. The talk was titled, ‘Where does the media stand in connecting (or dividing) Southasia?’.

Gautam singled out those sections of the Indian media that are tamely subservient to Indian governments, including those that are professedly independent, for the glaring lack of, among other things, regionalism or collective amity within South Asia. These sections of the media, it was pointed out, pander easily to the narratives framed by the Indian centre on developments in the region and fall easy prey, as it were, to the nationalist forces that are supportive of the latter. Consequently, divisive forces within the region receive a boost which is hugely detrimental to regional cooperation.

Two cases in point, Gautam pointed out, were the recent political upheavals in Nepal and Bangladesh. In each of these cases stray opinions favorable to India voiced by a few participants in the relevant protests were clung on to by sections of the Indian media covering these trouble spots. In the case of Nepal, to consider one example, a young protester’s single comment to the effect that Nepal too needed a firm leader like Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi was seized upon by the Indian media and fed to audiences at home in a sensational, exaggerated fashion. No effort was made by the Indian media to canvass more opinions on this matter or to extensively research the issue.

In the case of Bangladesh, widely held rumours that the Hindus in the country were being hunted and killed, pogrom fashion, and that the crisis was all about this was propagated by the relevant sections of the Indian media. This was a clear pandering to religious extremist sentiment in India. Once again, essentially hearsay stories were given prominence with hardly any effort at understanding what the crisis was really all about. There is no doubt that anti-Muslim sentiment in India would have been further fueled.

Gautam was of the view that, in the main, it is fear of victimization of the relevant sections of the media by the Indian centre and anxiety over financial reprisals and like punitive measures by the latter that prompted the media to frame their narratives in these terms. It is important to keep in mind these ‘structures’ within which the Indian media works, we were told. The issue in other words, is a question of the media completely subjugating themselves to the ruling powers.

Basically, the need for financial survival on the part of the Indian media, it was pointed out, prompted it to subscribe to the prejudices and partialities of the Indian centre. A failure to abide by the official line could spell financial ruin for the media.

A principal question that occurred to this columnist was whether the ‘Indian media’ referred to by Gautam referred to the totality of the Indian media or whether he had in mind some divisive, chauvinistic and narrow-based elements within it. If the latter is the case it would not be fair to generalize one’s comments to cover the entirety of the Indian media. Nevertheless, it is a matter for further research.

However, an overall point made by the speaker that as a result of the above referred to negative media practices South Asian regionalism has suffered badly needs to be taken. Certainly, as matters stand currently, there is a very real information gap about South Asian realities among South Asian publics and harmful media practices account considerably for such ignorance which gets in the way of South Asian cooperation and amity.

Moreover, divisive, chauvinistic media are widespread and active in South Asia. Sri Lanka has a fair share of this species of media and the latter are not doing the country any good, leave alone the region. All in all, the democratic spirit has gone well into decline all over the region.

The above is a huge problem that needs to be managed reflectively by democratic rulers and their allied publics in South Asia and the region’s more enlightened media could play a constructive role in taking up this challenge. The latter need to take the initiative to come together and deliberate on the questions at hand. To succeed in such efforts they do not need the backing of governments. What is of paramount importance is the vision and grit to go the extra mile.

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