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Ceylon Tobacco Company PLC: Fags ignite bottom-line boost

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Gross Revenue of CTC is estimated to accelerate to achieve a CAGR of 6% during the period 2022E2024E mainly attributing to continuous price hikes and swift bounce back in the tourism sector which was significantly curbed since 2020. Gross Revenue of CTC is expected to enhance in 2022E amidst the current economic crisis on account of VAT rate hike by 4.0%, which consequently increased the price of a cigarette by LKR 5.00 reflecting a rise in price by 6.3%-7.1% in major brands of CTC. In line with the past trend, we anticipate an annual tax hike in cigarettes resulting in further price hikes which will be far greater than the tax increase as the pricing power the company holds as the Tobacco Monopolist allows to pass on such increases to the consumer. We estimate the Gross Revenue of CTC to set on a marginal growth of 1.2% to LKR 135.9Bn in 2022E compared to LKR 134.4Bn in 2021, with volumes reacting negatively to the unfavourable economic climate. However, growth in turnover would expedite in 2023E as turnover is expected to rise by 5.3% to LKR 143.3Bn and by 6.4% to LKR 152.5Bn in 2024E with easing economic conditions improving purchasing power of consumers and positive developments in the political front and expected financial assistance from external parties bringing in hope for revamp in tourism and recovery of volumes.

It is expected for CTC’s margins (Net Revenue/Gross Revenue) to increase narrowly to 25.1% for 2022E while reaching 26.5% for 2023E (+146bps) and 28.4% for 2024E (+186bps). Moreover, operating profit margin of CTC too is expected to increase marginally to 78.0% in 2022E compared to 77.7% in 2021 (+30bps). A possible shift in demand from domestic consumers to low margin products from high margin products and an overall decline in volumes coupled with a probable rise in demand for illicit beedi market as a result of depleting disposable income has a potential of hampering margins of CTC in the short term. However, the potential negative impact from this is offset by the escalation indemand for high margin products of CTC owing to the revival in the tourism sector in 2022 with tourist arrivals expected to rise beyond 800,000 by the end of 2022 while it has already crossed the 400,000 level for the period of January-June for the first time after 2019. Although, we expect volumes to decline by 12.0% in the current financial year, volumes would normalize by 2023E as the demand for cigarettes is expected to rebound due to its inelastic nature following the past trend of consumers adjusting to price hikes at a rapid pace. Thus, bottom line of CTC is expected to grow by 2.1% in 2022E and record at LKR 16.5Bn while it is expected to grow at 10.7% in 2023E recording an earnings of LKR 18.2Bn.

CTC is more likely to maintain its average payout of c.90.0% in order to repatriate profits to its parent company British American Tobacco which owns 84% of CTC while providing a dividend yield of 13.4% and 14.8% in 2022E and 2023E respectively.

In FY22E, we expect CTC to record a profit of LKR 16.5Bn (2%YoY) while FY23E net profit is expected to record at LKR 18.2Bn (11%YoY). For FY22E, CTC is expected to deliver a total return of 94.3% including a DY of 13.4% while for FY23E a total return of 103.8% is expected inclusive of 14.8% DY.

-First Capital Research



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Landmark IPO by Janashakthi Group; the largest in last 14 years

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Chairman Chandan de Silva delivering the keynote address.

A Janashakthi Group (JXG) IPO was a landmark event for the local capital market, valued at over Rs. 5 billion, making it the largest IPO on the CSE in the last 14 years.

‘The company emphasises that the success of the issue was critical not only for the firm but also for the broader market sentiment, said Group Chairman Chandan de Silva.

Senior Group leadership along with Founder and Chairman Emeritus Chandra Shafter rang the opening bell of the CSE, marking the successful conclusion of the IPO listing. The event was held recently at the CSE head office at the WTC building.

De Silva making the keynote address said that market conditions were “hugely positive” when the IPO was initially approved in early February.

He also said that this IPO was thrice oversubscribed and has more than 20000 shareholders throughout the country.

However, a “drastic shift” in market sentiment occurred following the finalisation of the IPO, primarily driven by ongoing events in the Middle East, which created significant concerns regarding the offering’s success.

To mitigate these risks, Janashakthi Limited engaged in proactive pre-marketing of the issue to both local and foreign investors. These investors provided firm commitments for substantial subscriptions, provided they were given reasonable assurances of receiving allocations based on their pre-commitments.

The company stated that these preferential allotments were made based on practical considerations to ensure the IPO’s success while remaining within the Listing Rules of the CSE.

By Hiran H Senewiratne

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HNB Life hosts first sales convention under new brand

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HNB Life recently hosted its first Sales Convention at the ITC Ratnadipa, following the launch of its new brand identity, bringing together its advisor distribution force to celebrate a year of exceptional performance and continued momentum.

The event marked a significant milestone for the company, highlighting the strength and consistency of its advisor channel, which has delivered steady growth over the past five years. In 2025, the channel recorded an impressive 28% growth in Gross Written Premium (GWP) and a 25% increase in New Business Premium (NBP), reaffirming its critical role in driving the company’s success.

A total of 622 awards were presented during the evening, recognizing the dedication, and outstanding achievements of HNB Life’s advisors across the island.

Further highlighting the channel’s excellence, HNB Life recorded its highest-ever number of MDRT qualifiers for the advisor channel, reaching 132, a 51% growth over last year, which also includes 1 Top of the Table (TOT) and 5 Court of the Table (COT) members.

The convention also served as a platform to unveil several key initiatives aimed at empowering advisors and strengthening their journey as trusted Life Planners under the new HNB Life identity.

Speaking at the convention, Lasitha Wimalaratne, Executive Director / Chief Executive Officer of HNB Life stated, “This convention is not just a celebration of numbers, but a celebration of consistency, commitment, and the spirit of our people. As we step into this new chapter as HNB Life, it is inspiring to see our advisor force continue to raise the bar year after year. Their dedication is what drives our growth and strengthens the trust our customers place in us. My sincere congratulations to all our winners for their outstanding achievements, and my appreciation to every member of our Advisor Distribution Management for their continued efforts. It is this collective strength that will power us forward as we aim for even greater milestones in the years ahead.”

Harindra Ramasinghe, Executive Vice President / CBO – Advisor Distribution Channel of HNB Life added, “Our advisor distribution channel has once again demonstrated its strength. The growth we are witnessing is not by chance, it is built on discipline, capability, and a deep understanding of customer needs. I would like to extend my sincere appreciation to the entire Distribution Management Team including our SBU Heads, Regional Managers, Zonal Managers, Branch Managers and our dedicated training teams who continuously guide and push this team to be their very best. Their role behind the scenes plays a vital role in shaping the success we celebrate today. With the new initiatives introduced, and many more exciting developments in the pipeline, we are confident that we will continue to reach even greater heights and redefine what excellence looks like in the years ahead.”

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Group Country Manager for India and South Asia

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Suresh Sethi

Sri Lanka: Visa (NYSE: V), a global leader in digital payments, announced that Suresh Sethi has been appointed Group Country Manager for India and South Asia. In this role, Suresh will lead Visa’s strategy and operations across India, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Nepal, Maldives and Bhutan.

Suresh succeeds Sandeep Ghosh, who is leaving Visa for other opportunities. Based in Mumbai, Suresh will report to Stephen Karpin, Regional President, Asia Pacific, Visa.

Stephen Karpin, Regional President, Asia Pacific, Visa, said, “India and South Asia region continues to be among Visa’s most dynamic and strategically important markets. Suresh brings expertise and knowledge that will accelerate Visa’s aspiration to be the best way to pay and be paid. I am confident he will build on Visa’s strong foundations in the region, alongside clients, partners and policymakers to advance digital payments.”

He added, “I thank Sandeep for his leadership over the last four years, and for facilitating the smooth transition of the business to Suresh.”

Suresh Sethi, Group Country Manager, India and South Asia, Visa, stated, “I am pleased to join Visa at a defining moment for digital payments in India and South Asia. The next phase of growth will be driven by scale, trust, and innovation across an increasingly diverse payments ecosystem. Visa’s global capabilities, strong partnerships, and technology leadership provide a powerful platform to accelerate adoption, deepen acceptance, and deliver secure, inclusive, and high-impact payment solutions.

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