Business

Central Bank sets its macroeconomic projections in a firm direction

Published

3 years ago

2023/08/9

Sahan Weerasooriya

But warns of uncertainty surrounding forecasts of given variables

by Sanath Nanayakkare

After the Central Bank of Sri Lanka (CBSL) recently set a more inclusive and predictable Monetary Policy under the new CBSL Act, the business community appears to be taking their cue from the Bank’s medium term economic projections as was evident by the increased buying interest at the Colombo Stock Exchange when the market opened trading for the week on August 7.

On August 3, Dr. P. K. G. Harischandra, Director of Economic Research at the Central Bank of Sri Lanka said that CBSL’s latest Monetary Policy Report would give guidance to financial markets and other stakeholders as to how inflation and price stability would behave in the medium term (next 2-3 years), and therefore, they could assess future trends in the economy while evaluating the matrix of downside risks and upside risks in their investment and business decisions.

“Anchoring inflation expectations is a key element in the Monetary Policy framework. We will be focusing on the need to stabilize inflation expectations in businesses and households alike,” he said on 3rd August addressing journalists at a technical discussion on the Monetary Policy Report.

Illustrating Inflation fan charts for the medium term, Dr. Harischandra said,”CBSL arrives at macroeconomic projections including that of inflation, using a semi-structural macroeconomic model. These projections are usually updated on a quarterly frequency along with the release of GDP data. Projections are arrived at using released data, projections of major global indicators, near-term forecasts of selected variables and judgments,” he said.

However, he pointed out that forecasts are uncertain by nature, which is represented by the confidence intervals, and this uncertainty needs to be taken into consideration when such forecasts are used for various purposes.

“As per latest projections, inflation is expected to reach single digit levels in Q3 2023, and will stabilize at the desired levels over the medium term. So, when inflation stabilizes over the medium term, interest rates also will move in line with it. A major element here is the risk factors on the forecasts. Sometimes the actual figures could differ from the baseline forecasts. We explain such risks in the Monetary Policy report, he said.

Dr. Harischandra noted that CBSL would build up credibility of the projections process through increased communication with the public ensuring a high level of transparency.

“Going forward, we will be publishing a forecast and when we receive actual data in the coming weeks and months, we will be able to see the difference between our forecasts and actual data. Yes, there may be some difference as our projections may not be 100% accurate. We will then explain why any such deviations from the forecasts have happened. And then we can refer to what adjustments are needed on the medium term forecasts for the benefit of the public and businesses. Through this process, we are committed to increasing the transparency and credibility of the Monetary Policy and our projections. Because when we commit ourselves to a medium term target, we have an accountability to achieve it. That is a requirement of the Monetary Policy.”

Speaking further Dr. Harischandra said, “In addition to maintaining price stability, there will be other policy coordination, and we will be creating a platform for discussions in order to support decision making in broader terms”

“In June 2023, Colombo Consumer Price Index (CCPI) was 12%. In July it came down to 6.3%. The core inflation declined to 6.1%. Within this month, we expect that it will come into the targeted range. When headline inflation came down to 6.3%, food inflation became a negative 1.4%. Non-food has gone up by 19.5%, but transportation is a negative 9.3%. These reasons, prudent policies on the fiscal front and the inflation base effect in 2022 mainly brought inflation down. People ask if inflation has decelerated why prices aren’t coming down. We say at every forum that a fall in inflation is not necessarily about a fall in prices of all commodities across the board. Prices of some consumer items have declined notably giving relief to the consumers and prices of some other items have slowed the rate of increase in prices. Overall, there are no price shocks now. Journalists also have a task in communicating this properly to the public because it is a huge incomprehension that a fall in inflation is a fall in prices of everything.”

“Each economy needs some inflation. If there is negative inflation nobody will invest and produce because if prices keep coming down there will be losses. So, no country targets negative inflation. But as we came from a very high inflation to lower inflation, there was some negative inflation. A good rule of thumb for any country is not to let the price of the overall basket to get negative inflation because the consequences of that could ripple through the economy.”

Dr. Harishchandra told The Island Financial Review that the exchange rate of the US dollar to LKR won’t see much of an adverse effect when the government begins to make foreign debt repayments because the Domestic Debt Optimization programme is designed to withstand such risk.

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Business

HNB Assurance delivers industry leading 42% revenue (GWP) growth and 28% rise in profits (PAT)

Published

19 hours ago

2026/03/1

Thilina Walpola

HNB Assurance PLC reported an outstanding financial performance for the year ended 31st December 2025, delivering a 42% year-on-year growth in Life Insurance Gross Written Premium (GWP), this along with the growth rate in Renewals are the highest in the industry.

Life GWP reached Rs. 19.49 Bn compared to Rs. 13.71 Bn in 2024, reflecting strong New Business generation and Renewal Collection. Net Written Premium grew even faster at 43% to Rs. 18.44 Bn, highlighting the quality and sustainability of the Company’s topline expansion.

Commenting on the results, Chairman Stuart Chapman stated, “The year under review was marked by gradual macroeconomic stabilisation, improved investor sentiment and a more predictable policy environment. Although the economy continues to recover from prior volatility, we are beginning to see renewed financial confidence among individuals and businesses. Against this backdrop, HNB Assurance has delivered strong growth in both revenue and profits, while maintaining robust capital adequacy and prudent risk management. Our improvement in top line, profitability and balance sheet strength demonstrates the resilience of our business model and our ability to navigate changing economic conditions which are reflected in an ROE which increased to 18.5% from 16.9% a year earlier.”

Profit Before Tax increased by 28% to Rs. 3.03 Bn from Rs. 2.36 Bn in the previous year, while Profit After Tax (including Life Surplus Transfer) rose by 28% to Rs. 2.12 Bn compared to Rs. 1.66 Bn in 2024. Earnings Per Share improved by 28% to Rs. 14.15 from Rs. 11.04, reinforcing the Company’s ability to consistently translate business growth into enhanced shareholder value. In line with this strong performance, the Board of Directors has proposed a first and final dividend of Rs. 5.00 per share for 2025, representing a 28% increase over the Rs. 3.90 per share declared in the previous year.

Executive Director and Chief Executive Officer Lasitha Wimalaratne highlighted the consistency of the Company’s upward trajectory. “Our 2025 performance reflects a sustained pattern of high growth and disciplined execution over the past four years. During this period, we have consistently strengthened our distribution reach, enhanced advisor productivity, invested in digital enablement and sharpened our customer centric value proposition. Each year we have built on the previous year’s gains, and the 42% growth in Life GWP in 2025 is the strongest affirmation yet of that strategy. Importantly, we have achieved this while maintaining underwriting discipline, expanding our Life Fund and delivering a 28% increase in PAT.”

The strength of the Company’s balance sheet continued to improve during the year. Total Assets grew by 28% to Rs. 68.44 Bn from Rs. 53.40 Bn, while financial investments increased by 29% to Rs. 62.49 Bn from Rs. 48.49 Bn in 2024, reflecting disciplined asset accumulation and prudent investment management. Total Equity rose to Rs. 12.19 Bn from Rs. 10.81 Bn, supported by Retained Earnings which grew by 18% to Rs. 10.23 Bn.

The Life Insurance Fund recorded a significant expansion of 27%, increasing to Rs. 48.87 Bn from Rs. 38.34 Bn in the previous year. During the year, the Company paid Rs. 4.40 Bn in Net Insurance Benefits and Claims, honouring its commitments to policyholders and their families while further strengthening long term reserves. Investment Income remained a key contributor to performance, with interest and dividend income rising by 10% to Rs. 7.49 Bn.

The Market Capitalisation as at the end of the year stood at Rs. 17.21 Bn up 43% from a year ago when it was Rs. 12.02 Bn, while trading for year ended at Rs. 114.75 per share increasing by 43% from Rs. 81.10 a year ago.

Business

Phoenix Ogilvy Dominates Sri Lanka’s Creative Rankings

Published

19 hours ago

2026/03/1

Thilina Walpola

Irvin Weerackody – Chairman, Ogilvy Group Sri Lanka

Standout year with international award show wins at LIA, One Asia, Clio, AdFest, Spikes Asia & The Work

Phoenix Ogilvy has been named 2025 Sri Lanka Agency of the Year after topping The Campaign Brief Asia’s Creative Rankings as the most internationally awarded agency in the country, an agency news release said..

The agency’s ranking also marks Sri Lanka’s return to the list in 2025, following the country’s absence from it the previous year.

The Campaign Brief Asia Creative Rankings annually evaluate the top 100 most awarded creative agencies in Asia, based on their achievements across leading international award shows.

The rankings are widely regarded as one of Asia’s most credible measures of creative excellence. Agencies accumulate points purely from award wins across major international creative shows, making it one of the longest-running and most respected benchmarks of creative performance in the region.

Phoenix Ogilvy secured the top spot in the national table, amassing an impressive 295 Creative Ranking points after standout wins across six major international creative award shows, including London International Awards (LIA), One Asia Awards, Clio Awards, AdFest, Spikes Asia, and Campaign Brief’s The Work.

Being ranked at the top not only signals national creative leadership for Phoenix Ogilvy but also exhibits the agency’s talent strength. In a testament to this creative calibre, the agency’s talent dominated the Campaign Brief Asia’s Individual Creative Rankings in Sri Lanka.

Leading this list is Nadeera Warawita with 250 Creative Ranking points, followed by Sakuna Ranasinghe at No. 2 with 220 points, and Samitha Kaushalya at No. 3 with 150 points. Meanwhile ranked jointly at No. 4, are Dilshi Aberaja, Dilshard Ahamed, Harsha Kumara, Kasun Wadumestri, Keshan Silva, and Suresh Kumar. At no. 10 is Dilshi Thathsarani.

Speaking on these achievements, Irvin Weerackody, Chairman of the Ogilvy Group Sri Lanka, said, “Creativity has always been our lifeblood, and it is encouraging to see that commitment recognised on the world stage. The real test of an agency is not the trophies, but the courage to create with integrity, especially today. These achievements not only reflect the capability of our talent, but importantly their discipline, their cultural instinct and their refusal to take the easy way out. I am proud of our teams, who continue to push themselves year after year to raise the bar and uphold the standards we believe in.”

For five decades, Phoenix Ogilvy has been a defining pillar of the country’s marketing landscape and an influential creative powerhouse. From its earliest days, the agency has challenged convention and advocated brave thinking, producing work that commands attention, both locally and internationally.

Renowned as a formidable training ground for Sri Lankan advertising talent, the agency has also played a pivotal role in shaping generations of trailblazing creatives, strategic thinkers, and industry leaders who continue to leave their mark across the region and beyond.

Strengthened by the global Ogilvy network, the agency enjoys a rare blend of global creative rigour and deep local intelligence. Over the years, it has diversified across multiple disciplines and today stands as a talent hub for 290 industry specialists spanning creative, strategy, digital, media, public relations and integrated communications in Sri Lanka.

At its core, the agency remains true to the principles it was built on: that great ideas come from disciplined minds, uncompromising craft, and the refusal to settle for the ordinary.

Business

Oak Ray Chef Marks a Culinary Milestone with 118 Unique Creations

Published

19 hours ago

2026/03/1

Thilina Walpola

In the intricate world of pastry and bakery arts, R.S. Weerakoon has emerged as a visionary creator, known for his extraordinary ability to transform any concept into a stunning cake masterpiece. Currently serving as the Head Chef (Pastry & Bakery) at the Oak Ray Group in Kandy, Weerakoon’s journey is a blend of local talent and international expertise.

An alumnus of Udispattuwa Maha Vidyalaya, Weerakoon holds an NVQ Level 04 qualification from NAITA and is a distinguished member of the Chefs’ Guild of Sri Lanka. With over 14 years of experience in the industry, including valuable tenures in Kuwait and Oman, he has successfully integrated Middle Eastern culinary trends with local flavors.

One of his most significant contributions to the industry is the introduction of 118 unique products to the Oak Ray Group. Remarkably, all these creations are made without the use of any artificial food colorings, prioritizing the health and well-being of consumers.

Speaking about this talented professional, the Chairman of the Oak Ray Group, Mr. Sujeewa Palliyaguruge, stated that his vision is to provide a creative platform for such skilled young individuals.

“Our goal is to allow talented creators like Weerakoon the freedom to innovate and bring their unique visions to life, which ultimately benefits the entire culinary industry in Sri Lanka,” he said.

Weerakoon’s dedication to natural ingredients and his mastery of cake architecture continue to set new benchmarks for the next generation of chefs in the hill capital.