Business
Central Bank sets its macroeconomic projections in a firm direction
But warns of uncertainty surrounding forecasts of given variables
by Sanath Nanayakkare
After the Central Bank of Sri Lanka (CBSL) recently set a more inclusive and predictable Monetary Policy under the new CBSL Act, the business community appears to be taking their cue from the Bank’s medium term economic projections as was evident by the increased buying interest at the Colombo Stock Exchange when the market opened trading for the week on August 7.
On August 3, Dr. P. K. G. Harischandra, Director of Economic Research at the Central Bank of Sri Lanka said that CBSL’s latest Monetary Policy Report would give guidance to financial markets and other stakeholders as to how inflation and price stability would behave in the medium term (next 2-3 years), and therefore, they could assess future trends in the economy while evaluating the matrix of downside risks and upside risks in their investment and business decisions.
“Anchoring inflation expectations is a key element in the Monetary Policy framework. We will be focusing on the need to stabilize inflation expectations in businesses and households alike,” he said on 3rd August addressing journalists at a technical discussion on the Monetary Policy Report.
Illustrating Inflation fan charts for the medium term, Dr. Harischandra said,”CBSL arrives at macroeconomic projections including that of inflation, using a semi-structural macroeconomic model. These projections are usually updated on a quarterly frequency along with the release of GDP data. Projections are arrived at using released data, projections of major global indicators, near-term forecasts of selected variables and judgments,” he said.
However, he pointed out that forecasts are uncertain by nature, which is represented by the confidence intervals, and this uncertainty needs to be taken into consideration when such forecasts are used for various purposes.
“As per latest projections, inflation is expected to reach single digit levels in Q3 2023, and will stabilize at the desired levels over the medium term. So, when inflation stabilizes over the medium term, interest rates also will move in line with it. A major element here is the risk factors on the forecasts. Sometimes the actual figures could differ from the baseline forecasts. We explain such risks in the Monetary Policy report, he said.
Dr. Harischandra noted that CBSL would build up credibility of the projections process through increased communication with the public ensuring a high level of transparency.
“Going forward, we will be publishing a forecast and when we receive actual data in the coming weeks and months, we will be able to see the difference between our forecasts and actual data. Yes, there may be some difference as our projections may not be 100% accurate. We will then explain why any such deviations from the forecasts have happened. And then we can refer to what adjustments are needed on the medium term forecasts for the benefit of the public and businesses. Through this process, we are committed to increasing the transparency and credibility of the Monetary Policy and our projections. Because when we commit ourselves to a medium term target, we have an accountability to achieve it. That is a requirement of the Monetary Policy.”
Speaking further Dr. Harischandra said, “In addition to maintaining price stability, there will be other policy coordination, and we will be creating a platform for discussions in order to support decision making in broader terms”
“In June 2023, Colombo Consumer Price Index (CCPI) was 12%. In July it came down to 6.3%. The core inflation declined to 6.1%. Within this month, we expect that it will come into the targeted range. When headline inflation came down to 6.3%, food inflation became a negative 1.4%. Non-food has gone up by 19.5%, but transportation is a negative 9.3%. These reasons, prudent policies on the fiscal front and the inflation base effect in 2022 mainly brought inflation down. People ask if inflation has decelerated why prices aren’t coming down. We say at every forum that a fall in inflation is not necessarily about a fall in prices of all commodities across the board. Prices of some consumer items have declined notably giving relief to the consumers and prices of some other items have slowed the rate of increase in prices. Overall, there are no price shocks now. Journalists also have a task in communicating this properly to the public because it is a huge incomprehension that a fall in inflation is a fall in prices of everything.”
“Each economy needs some inflation. If there is negative inflation nobody will invest and produce because if prices keep coming down there will be losses. So, no country targets negative inflation. But as we came from a very high inflation to lower inflation, there was some negative inflation. A good rule of thumb for any country is not to let the price of the overall basket to get negative inflation because the consequences of that could ripple through the economy.”
Dr. Harishchandra told The Island Financial Review that the exchange rate of the US dollar to LKR won’t see much of an adverse effect when the government begins to make foreign debt repayments because the Domestic Debt Optimization programme is designed to withstand such risk.
Business
Why Sri Lanka’s new environmental penalties could redraw the Economics of Growth
For decades, environmental crime in Sri Lanka has been cheap.
Polluters paid fines that barely registered on balance sheets, violations dragged through courts and the real costs — poisoned waterways, degraded land, public health damage — were quietly transferred to the public. That arithmetic, long tolerated, is now being challenged by a proposed overhaul of the country’s environmental penalty regime.
At the centre of this shift is the Central Environmental Authority (CEA), which is seeking to modernise the National Environmental Act, raising penalties, tightening enforcement and reframing environmental compliance as an economic — not merely regulatory — issue.
“Environmental protection can no longer be treated as a peripheral concern. It is directly linked to national productivity, public health expenditure and investor confidence, CEA Director General Kapila Mahesh Rajapaksha told The Island Financial Review. “The revised penalty framework is intended to ensure that the cost of non-compliance is no longer cheaper than compliance itself.”
Under the existing law, many pollution-related offences attract fines so modest that they have functioned less as deterrents than as operating expenses. In economic terms, they created a perverse incentive: pollute first, litigate later, pay little — if at all.
The proposed amendments aim to reverse this logic. Draft provisions increase fines for air, water and noise pollution to levels running into hundreds of thousands — and potentially up to Rs. 1 million — per offence, with additional daily penalties for continuing violations. Some offences are also set to become cognisable, enabling faster enforcement action.
“This is about correcting a market failure, Rajapaksha said. “When environmental damage is not properly priced, the economy absorbs hidden losses — through healthcare costs, disaster mitigation, water treatment and loss of livelihoods.”
Those losses are not theoretical. Pollution-linked illnesses increase public healthcare spending. Industrial contamination damages agricultural output. Environmental degradation weakens tourism and raises disaster-response costs — all while eroding Sri Lanka’s natural capital.
Economists increasingly argue that weak environmental enforcement has acted as an implicit subsidy to polluting industries, distorting competition and discouraging investment in cleaner technologies.
The new penalty regime, by contrast, signals a shift towards cost internalisation — forcing businesses to account for environmental risk as part of their operating model.
The reforms arrive at a time when global capital is becoming more selective. Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) benchmarks are now embedded in lending, insurance and trade access. Countries perceived as weak on enforcement face higher financing costs and shrinking market access.
“A transparent and credible environmental regulatory system actually reduces investment risk, Rajapaksha noted. “Serious investors want predictability — not regulatory arbitrage that collapses under public pressure or litigation.”
For Sri Lanka, the implications are significant. Stronger enforcement could help align the country with international supply-chain standards, particularly in manufacturing, agribusiness and tourism — sectors where environmental compliance increasingly determines competitiveness.
Business groups are expected to raise concerns about compliance costs, particularly for small and medium-scale enterprises. The CEA insists the objective is not to shut down industry but to shift behaviour.
“This is not an anti-growth agenda, Rajapaksha said. “It is about ensuring growth does not cannibalise the very resources it depends on.”
In the longer term, stricter penalties may stimulate demand for environmental services — monitoring, waste management, clean technology, compliance auditing — creating new economic activity and skilled employment.
Yet legislation alone will not suffice. Sri Lanka’s environmental laws have historically suffered from weak enforcement, delayed prosecutions and institutional bottlenecks. Without consistent application, higher penalties risk remaining symbolic.
The CEA says reforms will be accompanied by improved monitoring, digitalised approval systems and closer coordination with enforcement agencies.
By Ifham Nizam
Business
Milinda Moragoda meets with Gautam Adani
Milinda Moragoda, Founder of the Pathfinder Foundation, who was in New Delhi to participate at the 4th India-Japan Forum, met with Gautam Adani, Chairman of Adani Group.
Adani Group recently announced that they will invest US$75 billion in the energy transition over the next 5 years. They will also be investing $5 billion in Google’s AI data center in India.Milinda Moragoda,
Milinda Moragoda, was invited by India’s Ministry of External Affairs and the Ananta Centre to participate in the 4th India–Japan Forum, held recently in New Delhi. In his presentation, he proposed that India consider taking the lead in a post-disaster reconstruction and recovery initiative for Sri Lanka, with Japan serving as a strategic partner in this effort. The forum itself covered a broad range of issues related to India–Japan cooperation, including economic security, semiconductors, trade, nuclear power, digitalization, strategic minerals, and investment.
The India-Japan Forum provides a platform for Indian and Japanese leaders to shape the future of bilateral and strategic partnerships through deliberation and collaboration. The forum is convened by the Ministry of External Affairs, Government of India, and the Anantha Centre.
Business
HNB Assurance welcomes 2026 with strong momentum towards 10 in 5
HNB Assurance enters 2026 with renewed purpose and clear ambition as it moves into a defining phase of its 10 in 5 strategic journey. With the final leg toward achieving a 10% life insurance market share by 2026 now in focus, the company is gearing up for a year of transformation, innovation, and accelerated growth.
Closing 2025 on a strong note, HNB Assurance delivered outstanding results, continuously achieving growth above the industry average while strengthening its people, partnerships and brand. Industry awards, other achievements, and continued customer trust reflect the company’s strong performance and ongoing commitment to providing meaningful protection solutions for all Sri Lankans.
Commenting on the year ahead, Lasitha Wimalarathne, Executive Director / Chief Executive Officer of HNB Assurance, stated, “Guided by our 2026 theme, ‘Reimagine. Reinvent. Redefine.’, we are setting our sights beyond convention. Our aim is to reimagine what is possible for the life insurance industry, for our customers, and for the communities we serve, while laying a strong foundation for the next 25 years as a trusted life insurance partner in Sri Lanka. This year, we also celebrate 25 years of HNB Assurance, a milestone that is special in itself and a testament to the trust and support of our customers, partners and people. For us, success is not defined solely by financial performance. It is measured by the trust we earn, the promises we honor, the lives we protect, and the positive impact we create for all our stakeholders. Our ambition is clear, to be a top-tier life insurance company that sets benchmarks in customer experience, professionalism and people development.”
For HNB Assurance looking back at a year of progress and recognition, the collective efforts of the team have created a strong momentum for the year ahead.
“The progress we have made gives us strong confidence as we enter the final phase of our 10 in 5 journey. Being recognized as the Best Life Insurance Company at the Global Brand Awards 2025, receiving the National-level Silver Award for Local Market Reach and the Insurance Sector Gold Award at the National Business Excellence Awards, and being named Best Life Bancassurance Provider in Sri Lanka for the fifth consecutive year by the Global Banking and Finance Review, UK, reflect the consistency of our performance, the strength of our strategy, along with the passion, and commitment of our people.”
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