Business

CB Governor confident inflation will fall to single digit by end of 2023

Published

3 years ago

2023/02/27

Thilina Walpola

Sri Lanka eyes IMF first tranche in March 2023

Last year’s economic contraction expected to be around 7.5%- 8.0%

This year expected to see stability without a contraction

Sequencing of policy action to be continued

By Sanath Nanayakkare

I clearly see that by the end of the year, inflation will fall to single digit, and I can say that with confidence as the Governor of the Central Bank, Dr. Nandalal Weerasinghe said during an interview recently.

“At the time the IMF staff and the Sri Lankan authorities reached a staff-level agreement in September 2022 to support Sri Lanka under an Extended Fund Facility (EFF) of about US$ 2.9 billion, their forecast was Sri Lanka’s inflation would exceed 70% by December 2022. Many people thought inflation would increase by 100%. In fact, food inflation soared to 95%. But having noted the higher than expected escalation of headline inflation and the increased persistence of high inflation, we increased interest rates to contain it. Now inflation has been trending down steadily since September 2022. I clearly see that by the end of the year, inflation will decline to single digit,” he said.

When he was told that some people accuse him for the economic contraction triggered by high interest rates, he replied,” When economic contraction takes place, it hurts everyone. Trade volumes decline, industrial outputs decline and the impacts are felt at all levels. However, for the country to get out of the economic crisis, painful measures needed to be taken which could lead to economic contraction, but that’s the only way out to stabilize the economy. If there hadn’t been an economic crisis, there would have been no need for contracting the economy. Imagine what would have happened if we hadn’t increased interest rates. Interest rate is a tool we use to contain high inflation,” he said.

“Businesses suffer mainly because of high inflation that has a direct impact on their cost of production. When upward inflation is controlled, the cost of production can be controlled and the businesses can operate well with consumers’ purchasing power intact. Inflation is the main enemy of any economy. So tackling inflation is our main responsibility and that’s what we have done. When inflation goes down, interest rates will also go down. And also when the uncertainty in the market abates, interest rates will go down. It is not logical to assume that interest rates will remain at the same level for ever. We controlled the inflation by increasing interest rates. It was like systematically preventing the blowing up of a highly inflated balloon. If it hadn’t been done, the economy would have been in smithereens. Talks with the IMF, debt sustainability, increasing interest rates, balancing of monetary expansion should have been done when the circumstances demanded to do so. If those actions had been taken at the correct time, inflation wouldn’t have been this high. But now there is no other way to get out of the situation we are in, “he said.

Asked whether he hoped the first tranche of the IMF would be released soon, he said,” We strongly hope that we will get the IMF facility’s first tranche in March, 2023. And when we get that, it will instill the confidence of multilateral bodies such as the World Bank and ADB in our financial discipline to give us loans at concessionary rates. They have already agreed to do so. In addition to that, there will be more foreign inflows to our equity market and foreign investment portfolio. These will ease our balance of payment issue, help lower our interest rates and rationalize our exchange rate. Then the 3-month T-Bill yield rate which is still high will move in line with Central Bank’s policy rates.

With the realization of the IMF facility, uncertainty-driven market interest rates will dissipate and will come down to normal levels. This can’t still happen because risk-free government security rates are still at 30% – though down from its previous 33%. Prime lending rates are still affected by this. Many have complained to me that interest rates are too high, and therefore, it’s difficult to do business and they find it very difficult to repay their loans. That is true. The reason for this situation is the lack of foreign currency.

So when we have more foreign currency, interest rates can be lowered without affecting our foreign reserves, while keeping our imports under control. We can’t go back to a chaotic situation like in June 2022. Last year could have seen an economic contraction of 7.5- 8.0%. This year we need to stabilize the economy and achieve stable performance in all four quarters. This has to be done very carefully with proper sequencing so that all sectors can operate smoothly. Although the situation appears to be normal on the facade, it is still not so. There is still a deficit. That’s why the constant sequencing of our policy action is crucial,” the Governor said.

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Business

Rupee stability reflective of positive impact of policies taken thus far – CBSL Governor

Published

9 hours ago

2026/07/23

Sahan Weerasooriya

Dr. Nandalal Weerasinghe: ‘Eye on emerging risks.’

By Hiran H. Senewiratne

The rupee has stabilised somewhat in recent weeks reflecting the impact of policy measures that have been taken thus far, Central Bank Governor Dr Nandalal Weerasinghe said.

“We will continue to closely monitor domestic and global developments for emerging risks and expect the monetary policy tightening carried out previously to transmit to the economy in the period ahead, Central Bank Governor Dr Weerasinghe said at the monthly monetary policy review meeting held at Central Bank head office yesterday.

He said that the CBSL stands ready to take appropriate measures to ensure that inflation stabilises around the 5 percent target, while supporting the economy to reach its potential over the medium term.

Amid those developments the Central Bank kept its Overnight Policy Rate (OPR) unchanged at 8.75 percent, it said in a statement, after considering the evolving conditions and outlook on the domestic and global fronts.

Dr Weerasinghe added: ‘Renewed tensions in the Middle East have resulted in a surge in global commodity prices, particularly petroleum. These developments are likely to dampen global economic prospects with potential spillover.

‘The current low level of inflation, at 1.6 percent year -on-year in February 2026, relative to the target of 5 percent provides sufficient space to accommodate the impact of higher energy prices and their spillovers on inflation.

‘Headline inflation accelerated to 6.8 percent in June 2026, mainly due to higher domestic energy and food prices.

‘Headline inflation is expected to remain above the target of 5% in the near term before gradually returning to the target level. Core inflation is also expected to increase and remain around the headline inflation target.

‘The Board arrived at the decision to maintain the overnight policy rate after carefully considering the evolving conditions and outlook on the domestic and global fronts.

‘Renewed tensions in the Middle East have resulted in a surge in global commodity prices, particularly petroleum. These developments are likely to dampen global economic prospects with potential spillovers to the domestic economy through multiple channels.

‘The monetary policy tightening in May 2026 and its gradual transmission to the real economy are expected to moderate credit growth and the buildup of demand pressures going forward.

‘The pressure on the external sector caused by the Middle East conflict has eased somewhat, although the outlook remains uncertain due to renewed tensions.

‘Since April 2026, the external current account recorded a deficit, mainly because higher fuel import costs widened the merchandise trade deficit and tourism earnings slowed down.

‘Going forward, import demand, including demand for motor vehicles, is expected to reduce in response to recent policy measures.

‘Meanwhile, workers’ remittances have remained strong so far in 2026. Gross Official Reserves stood at USD 6.45 bn at the end of June 2026, amid foreign debt service payments.’

Business

Dengue outbreak exposes multi-billion rupee burden on state health system

Published

9 hours ago

2026/07/23

Sahan Weerasooriya

By Ifham Nizam

The mosquito that spreads dengue is tiny. The financial burden it leaves behind is anything but.

As Sri Lanka grapples with its worst dengue outbreak in nearly a decade, the country’s free public healthcare system is absorbing a mounting financial shock that experts say could run into billions of rupees, even as the human toll continues to rise.

According to the National Dengue Control Unit (NDCU), more than 76,000 dengue infections and 53 deaths have been reported so far this year, making 2026 one of the most challenging years for dengue control in recent history.

The NDCU has warned that the outbreak is being driven largely by the highly virulent DENV-2 strain, while persistent rainfall, poor waste management and mosquito breeding in urban and semi-urban areas continue to fuel transmission.

Although the Ministry of Health has yet to publish an official estimate of the cost of treating dengue patients, the economic implications are becoming increasingly evident.

Published medical research estimates that treating a dengue patient costs between USD 239 and USD 1,056, depending on the severity of the illness. At an exchange rate of around Rs. 330 to the US dollar, this translates to approximately Rs. 79,000 to Rs. 348,000 per patient.

Applied to the more than 76,000 reported cases, the theoretical direct medical cost ranges from Rs. 6 billion to more than Rs. 26 billion. While many patients are treated as outpatients and therefore incur lower costs, the estimates underline the immense financial pressure being placed on Sri Lanka’s publicly funded healthcare system.

The National Dengue Control Unit has repeatedly urged the public to eliminate mosquito breeding sites, warning that hospitals alone cannot contain the outbreak without sustained community participation.

Health officials have intensified countrywide inspections, awareness campaigns and vector-control programmes as case numbers continue to climb.

Officials say hospitals have expanded dengue wards, increased bed capacity and deployed additional medical and nursing staff to cope with the surge in admissions.

The government has also mobilised Air Force drones to identify inaccessible mosquito breeding grounds while strengthening surveillance operations across high-risk districts.

The financial impact extends beyond the Ministry of Health. Families lose income when wage earners fall ill or parents stay home to care for infected children. Businesses suffer productivity losses, while schools experience increased absenteeism during peak transmission periods.

Sri Lanka’s previous major dengue epidemic in 2017 was estimated to have cost around Rs. 1.94 billion in healthcare and outbreak-control expenditure. With inflation, higher pharmaceutical prices and increased operational costs since then, health economists believe the financial burden of the current outbreak is likely to be substantially greater.

The outbreak also raises broader questions about climate resilience and public investment. Dengue is increasingly being recognised not merely as a seasonal health issue but as an economic challenge capable of straining government finances and slowing productivity.

For the National Dengue Control Unit, the message remains simple: prevention is far cheaper than treatment.

Every breeding site destroyed, every community clean-up campaign conducted and every household inspection completed reduces the need for costly hospital care.

As the monsoon continues to create favourable conditions for mosquito breeding, the NDCU warns that sustained public vigilance will determine whether the country’s health bill continues to climb—or begins to fall.

Business

Shantha Bandara reappointed SLCPI president as Chamber advances regulatory reform and patient access

Published

9 hours ago

2026/07/23

Sahan Weerasooriya

The Sri Lanka Chamber of the Pharmaceutical Industry (SLCPI) announced the reappointment of Sunshine Healthcare Lanka Ltd. Director and Chief Executive Officer Shantha Bandara as its President for the 2026/27 term at the Chamber’s 65th Annual General Meeting held at Cinnamon Grand Colombo.

The event was graced by Dr. Hansaka Wijemuni, Deputy Minister of Health, as Chief Guest, together with government representatives, healthcare partners, past presidents, member companies and other industry stakeholders.

Bandara’s reappointment provides continuity to a reform-oriented agenda that has strengthened the Chamber’s governance, ethical standards and engagement with policymakers and regulators. His renewed mandate will focus on converting the progress made during 2025/26 into practical regulatory improvements that support the availability, accessibility and affordability of quality medicines in Sri Lanka.

SLCPI represents more than 70 pharmaceutical importers, manufacturers, distributors and retailers. Its members account for over 90% of Sri Lanka’s private pharmaceutical market, while the wider industry directly employs more than 80,000 people and indirectly supports nearly 400,000.

Reflecting on the past year, Bandara said the industry had operated amid sustained domestic and global pressure. Exchange-rate volatility, disruptions to international shipping routes, rising freight, insurance, fuel and electricity costs, and constrained consumer purchasing power placed significant pressure on pharmaceutical supply chains and business viability.

Despite these challenges, SLCPI continued to engage constructively with the Ministry of Health, the National Medicines Regulatory Authority and other stakeholders, presenting evidence-based recommendations on pharmaceutical pricing, import licence renewals and continuity of supply.

A major achievement during Bandara’s first term was the adoption of new Articles of Association following extensive consultation, legal review and member engagement. The revised Articles provide a stronger constitutional foundation for the Chamber, clarify governance structures and reinforce member rights and responsibilities.