Can the Rajapaksas regain their charisma?

Mahinda Rajapaksa was one of the more, if not the most, popular political leaders of this country. When he lost the presidential election in 2015, people started visiting him in their thousands, and they had to wait in line to meet and greet him. Such a phenomenon has never been witnessed in this country, particularly in relation to a politician who has lost an election. They were almost apologetic for voting him out of power. Some were worshiping him, some were crying. And when the next election came along, they voted for him with a vengeance as if to make amends for the previous injustice done to him.

Gotabaya Rajapaksa was also very popular and could have won the election on his own steam if that was necessary. He had proven his capabilities in winning a war that was supposed to be unwinnable, and then developed Colombo City to be the number one city in the world. He was apolitical and was believed to be intolerant of inefficiency and corruption.

Gotabaya took over a government with a very poor economy, which had been brought down due to mismanagement and unprecedented corruption. the GDP which was about 6% in 2014, had been reduced to 2% by 2019. Heavy loans had been obtained with nothing to show for them. The country had been betrayed at the UNHRC in Geneva. The Central Bank had been embezzled, not once but twice. War heroes were being hounded at the behest of foreign powers and LTTE agents. Foreign interference was threatening to make Sri Lanka a subject nation, and perhaps divide the country or create a federal state in the least. People who had spurned the Rajapaksas turned up in millions and voted for them. People domiciled abroad came in their thousands to vote for them. Gotabaya won comfortably and the parliamentary election was won with a two-third majority, which was said to be impossible in a proportional representation voting system. Rajapaksas had done the impossible yet again.

Yet both of them, at the present moment, seem to be in the doldrums, as far as political popularity is concerned. Gotabaya had come to power at the most unfortunate moment. The economy at the time was in a very poor state. And then the country was hit by the pandemic. Initially the pandemic was satisfactorily controlled and the economy also made a V recovery. But the second and third waves proved to be devastating from the health point of view, as well as the economy. Thousands died and the economy contracted by about 11%. Foreign reserves have dried up, and servicing the heavy loans has become almost impossible.

Under such circumstances, what the government should have done was to carefully manage the economy and effectively control the pandemic. The effort to control the pandemic has been excellent. But the economy has been badly affected, not entirely due to the Covid. One of the worst blunders was the sudden ban on the import of chemical fertilisers and other agrochemicals. Gotabaya’s reasoning is that what is good must be done no matter what. What is good must be done at any cost. But not when a pandemic is raging and devastating the economy. Not when 30% of the economy is dependent on agricultural exports. Not when 70 % of the people are involved and dependent on an agricultural economy. The warnings of the agricultural scientists were not heard, and now the country is paying the price. Farmers have got onto the streets asking for fertiliser. Vegetable and tea production has reduced significantly. Prices of vegetables have skyrocketed. The adverse effect on the dollar reserves due to the declining tea production would come later.

The government also failed in the attempt to control the mafia involved in rice, sugar, gas, and milk powder rackets. As a result, the cost of living has gone through the ceiling. The government must remember that the cost of living is the biggest single factor that operates in the determination of election outcomes. Several governments, including the Rajapaksa government in 2015, had been rejected by the people due to the high cost of living. If the present trend continues unabated, there is no hope for this government.

The SLPP came into being due to the blunder made by the SLFP in joining the UNP. The SLFP stood for nationalism and represented the national interest and the common man of the country. In contrast, the UNP historically represented the forces that opposed the national interests. This is why Western powers support the UNP and plot to oust SLFP and SLPP governments.

Thus, the question arises whether the country could afford to lose nationalist political leaders like the Rajapaksas, and a political party that represents the national interest — like the SLPP. Could we afford foreign interference once again, interference in internal affairs like constitutional making, the security matters and armed forces, the national economy, etc.? Could we afford to be held to ransom by minority political parties? Could we afford to be betrayed at international fora? like the UNHRC? Could we afford to live in fear of being turned into a federal state? It is of paramount importance that we have a nationalist government in power at this juncture.

The Rajapaksas and the SLPP must not betray the people who had shown immense confidence in them. The country needs them. But not the Rajapaksas who commit blunder after blunder. They must take stock of the situation, be humble enough to accept their mistakes and take corrective measures. There is no moment to waste, they have only three years to correct the blunders of two years. They know what their mistakes are. They must be big enough to accept it and correct themselves. Otherwise, they will be rejected by the people. They must remember that without the farmers’ support they are doomed. And the country, too, would be doomed, for without power the national forces will be ineffective, until a new leadership is developed which may never happen. The Rajapaksas must rise to the occasion.

N.A.de S. AMARATUNGA