Business
Cabraal and Central Bank responds to debt default fears
Recent commentary on Sri Lanka’s credit outlook ignores the numerous policy initiatives of the Government of Sri Lanka, which have already started yielding results
The Government of Sri Lanka observes that the concerns expressed in the media in reference to recent reports on Sri Lanka’s ability to service its debt obligations by international banks are one sided, and do not take into consideration the numerous of policy measures that have been introduced to revive the economy and ensure macroeconomic stability. These innovative policy measures are not restricted to traditional debt-based solutions to service the current debt obligations. Measures to build resources through non-debt solutions, the preservation of foreign currency resources and the gradual phasing down of the relative share of foreign debt are already yielding desired results, with a high likelihood of harnessing further improvements during the remainder of the year and beyond.
Certain media reports published recently attempts to raise concerns about Sri Lanka’s ability to honour its debt service obligations, based on backward looking and linear assumptions, thus ignoring the expected outcome of the novel policy regime currently in place. While gross official reserves have moderated somewhat since end December 2020, such moderation is not expected to continue. When all relevant facts are considered, it becomes apparent that the fears raised in certain reports are, in fact, merely hypothetical. The Sri Lankan economy, which is over US dollars 80 billion, has major natural and regular sources of foreign exchange inflows, including merchandise and services exports, workers’ remittances, programme and project related inflows, equity investment, and other financial flows. Aided by the post-COVID revival of the economy, such foreign exchange inflows are projected at US dollars 32 billion in 2021, even without major forms of borrowings, such as floating International Sovereign Bonds (ISBs). These projected inflows are expected to increase by about US dollars 2-3 billion annually in the period ahead with the support of well targeted policies and strategies of the Government. At the same time, authorities will continue to take measures to build up official reserves with the help of measures already implemented and further measures as necessary in the period ahead. It is noteworthy that the Government has launched a major drive towards promoting real inflows of foreign exchange through actively facilitating various merchandise and services exports, in both traditional and non-traditional sectors. The import curtailment measures and the steady recovery in export earnings would continue to improve liquidity in the domestic foreign exchange market. Further, envisaged equity investment flows through the Colombo Port City and Industrial Zones and the reprioritisation of project financing would help reduce the share of foreign debt notably in the period ahead, thereby dispelling concerns about debt sustainability.
In this context, settling the maturing ISBs of US dollars 1.0-1.5 billion, per year, over the medium term, need not be viewed as a major source of concern, given the entire stock of outstanding ISBs account for only 16.7 per cent of Sri Lanka’s total government debt as of end February 2021. It is also stressed that lenders in the majority of 83.3 per cent of the debt stock have raised no concern whatsoever about Sri Lanka’s ability to honour debt obligations. The authorities remain committed to honoring all upcoming debt obligations, leaving zero probability of any form of default on any obligation, which would jeopardise the longstanding relations with stakeholders and the impeccable credit history of the country.
The engagement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) continues at staff level and as a member state in technical exchanges of know-how. Exploration of liquidity facilitation arrangements with regional central banks is also continuing, with some discussions are at an advanced stage.
As indicated in the Budget 2021, the Government has adopted a novel approach in relation to foreign financing, while enhancing the effectiveness of already secured financing channels, aimed at reducing the share of foreign financing of the budget deficit over the medium term. Reflecting the impact of measures already put in place by the Government, the relative share of outstanding external debt has already declined notably. The Government aims to reduce its external debt over the medium term to around a third of the total debt, and already the share of external debt has declined to around 40 per cent by end 2020 from over 48 per cent at end 2019.
The measures introduced to manage non-essential imports helped ease trade deficit to USD 5,978 million in 2020 from USD 7,997 million in 2019. The trade deficit is further expected to shrink in 2021 to around USD 4 billion. Export facilitation is expected to continue through allowing intermediate goods imports unhindered and promoting domestic value chain improvements, which would result in export earnings of about USD 13 billion in 2021.
Additionally, despite the projections of downturn in workers’ remittances, Sri Lanka recorded an increase of over USD 400 million remittances in 2020 with an aggregate of USD 7.1 billion. The policy measures to further incentivise remittances flows were facilitated with the Budget 2021 announcement of an additional Rs. 2 for conversion of per USD remittance, and the banks were required to sell 10 per cent of such remittance conversion to the Central Bank. The Central Bank has already commenced such absorption of conversions into its foreign exchange reserve. Further arrangements to improve foreign currency liquidity have been introduced, including a mandatory conversion of ¼ of export proceeds.
The Government is also in the process of channeling in official credit sources, with priority being envisaged for policy loans with a significantly high liquidity component. In addition, the commercial external financing component of the already lined-up term financing facility and other market financing components are envisaged in line with Budget 2021.
Sri Lanka Development Bonds (SLDBs) and loans of Overseas Banking Units (OBUs) also remain sources of foreign currency financing mainly from domestic foreign currency earning entities. The recently introduced measures to entice foreign investors to the government securities market and the real economy through an attractive foreign exchange swap arrangement are also likely to help enhance foreign currency inflows in the near term.
Real investment flows to the country remain a promising source based on the Colombo Port City related developments. The land reclamation work had been completed and the required legislation is being finalised. In December 2020, the Sri Lankan conglomerate, LOLC Group, signed an agreement with the Port City developers for a Mixed Development Project valued at USD 1 billion, which is set to break ground in mid-2021.
In this context, the Government reiterates its utmost commitment on meeting its external debt obligations, which will be facilitated not only through direct and indirect financing arrangements but also through highlighted policy measures and the current work plan to increase non-debt creating forex inflows.
The Government wishes to reiterate that even in the midst of various concerns raised by many parties on Sri Lanka’s debt service capability at the height of the COVID-19 pandemic, the Government was able to service its total external debt of around USD 4.3 billion in 2020.
The recent research reports indicate different figures of external debt obligations for 2021. The external debt obligations of the Government for 2021 amount to around USD 3.7 billion including the amortisation payments of USD 2.5 billion. Of this amount, thus far in 2021, the Government has settled over USD 500 million.
Sri Lanka will engage freely with all its investment and development partners and implement the envisaged measures to build up reserves through non-debt creating inflows while reviewing closely the international capital market developments.
Investors are invited to approach the Sri Lankan policy authorities at the highest levels who always remain open for constructive dialogue and will welcome any one-on-one engagement or roadshow discussions, without being dissuaded by premature one-sided opinion expressed without factoring the ground realities and the actual outcomes of policy measures introduced by the Government of Sri Lanka.
Business
Rupee stability reflective of positive impact of policies taken thus far – CBSL Governor
By Hiran H. Senewiratne
The rupee has stabilised somewhat in recent weeks reflecting the impact of policy measures that have been taken thus far, Central Bank Governor Dr Nandalal Weerasinghe said.
“We will continue to closely monitor domestic and global developments for emerging risks and expect the monetary policy tightening carried out previously to transmit to the economy in the period ahead, Central Bank Governor Dr Weerasinghe said at the monthly monetary policy review meeting held at Central Bank head office yesterday.
He said that the CBSL stands ready to take appropriate measures to ensure that inflation stabilises around the 5 percent target, while supporting the economy to reach its potential over the medium term.
Amid those developments the Central Bank kept its Overnight Policy Rate (OPR) unchanged at 8.75 percent, it said in a statement, after considering the evolving conditions and outlook on the domestic and global fronts.
Dr Weerasinghe added: ‘Renewed tensions in the Middle East have resulted in a surge in global commodity prices, particularly petroleum. These developments are likely to dampen global economic prospects with potential spillover.
‘The current low level of inflation, at 1.6 percent year -on-year in February 2026, relative to the target of 5 percent provides sufficient space to accommodate the impact of higher energy prices and their spillovers on inflation.
‘Headline inflation accelerated to 6.8 percent in June 2026, mainly due to higher domestic energy and food prices.
‘Headline inflation is expected to remain above the target of 5% in the near term before gradually returning to the target level. Core inflation is also expected to increase and remain around the headline inflation target.
‘The Board arrived at the decision to maintain the overnight policy rate after carefully considering the evolving conditions and outlook on the domestic and global fronts.
‘Renewed tensions in the Middle East have resulted in a surge in global commodity prices, particularly petroleum. These developments are likely to dampen global economic prospects with potential spillovers to the domestic economy through multiple channels.
‘The monetary policy tightening in May 2026 and its gradual transmission to the real economy are expected to moderate credit growth and the buildup of demand pressures going forward.
‘The pressure on the external sector caused by the Middle East conflict has eased somewhat, although the outlook remains uncertain due to renewed tensions.
‘Since April 2026, the external current account recorded a deficit, mainly because higher fuel import costs widened the merchandise trade deficit and tourism earnings slowed down.
‘Going forward, import demand, including demand for motor vehicles, is expected to reduce in response to recent policy measures.
‘Meanwhile, workers’ remittances have remained strong so far in 2026. Gross Official Reserves stood at USD 6.45 bn at the end of June 2026, amid foreign debt service payments.’
Business
Dengue outbreak exposes multi-billion rupee burden on state health system
By Ifham Nizam
The mosquito that spreads dengue is tiny. The financial burden it leaves behind is anything but.
As Sri Lanka grapples with its worst dengue outbreak in nearly a decade, the country’s free public healthcare system is absorbing a mounting financial shock that experts say could run into billions of rupees, even as the human toll continues to rise.
According to the National Dengue Control Unit (NDCU), more than 76,000 dengue infections and 53 deaths have been reported so far this year, making 2026 one of the most challenging years for dengue control in recent history.
The NDCU has warned that the outbreak is being driven largely by the highly virulent DENV-2 strain, while persistent rainfall, poor waste management and mosquito breeding in urban and semi-urban areas continue to fuel transmission.
Although the Ministry of Health has yet to publish an official estimate of the cost of treating dengue patients, the economic implications are becoming increasingly evident.
Published medical research estimates that treating a dengue patient costs between USD 239 and USD 1,056, depending on the severity of the illness. At an exchange rate of around Rs. 330 to the US dollar, this translates to approximately Rs. 79,000 to Rs. 348,000 per patient.
Applied to the more than 76,000 reported cases, the theoretical direct medical cost ranges from Rs. 6 billion to more than Rs. 26 billion. While many patients are treated as outpatients and therefore incur lower costs, the estimates underline the immense financial pressure being placed on Sri Lanka’s publicly funded healthcare system.
The National Dengue Control Unit has repeatedly urged the public to eliminate mosquito breeding sites, warning that hospitals alone cannot contain the outbreak without sustained community participation.
Health officials have intensified countrywide inspections, awareness campaigns and vector-control programmes as case numbers continue to climb.
Officials say hospitals have expanded dengue wards, increased bed capacity and deployed additional medical and nursing staff to cope with the surge in admissions.
The government has also mobilised Air Force drones to identify inaccessible mosquito breeding grounds while strengthening surveillance operations across high-risk districts.
The financial impact extends beyond the Ministry of Health. Families lose income when wage earners fall ill or parents stay home to care for infected children. Businesses suffer productivity losses, while schools experience increased absenteeism during peak transmission periods.
Sri Lanka’s previous major dengue epidemic in 2017 was estimated to have cost around Rs. 1.94 billion in healthcare and outbreak-control expenditure. With inflation, higher pharmaceutical prices and increased operational costs since then, health economists believe the financial burden of the current outbreak is likely to be substantially greater.
The outbreak also raises broader questions about climate resilience and public investment. Dengue is increasingly being recognised not merely as a seasonal health issue but as an economic challenge capable of straining government finances and slowing productivity.
For the National Dengue Control Unit, the message remains simple: prevention is far cheaper than treatment.
Every breeding site destroyed, every community clean-up campaign conducted and every household inspection completed reduces the need for costly hospital care.
As the monsoon continues to create favourable conditions for mosquito breeding, the NDCU warns that sustained public vigilance will determine whether the country’s health bill continues to climb—or begins to fall.
Business
Shantha Bandara reappointed SLCPI president as Chamber advances regulatory reform and patient access
The Sri Lanka Chamber of the Pharmaceutical Industry (SLCPI) announced the reappointment of Sunshine Healthcare Lanka Ltd. Director and Chief Executive Officer Shantha Bandara as its President for the 2026/27 term at the Chamber’s 65th Annual General Meeting held at Cinnamon Grand Colombo.
The event was graced by Dr. Hansaka Wijemuni, Deputy Minister of Health, as Chief Guest, together with government representatives, healthcare partners, past presidents, member companies and other industry stakeholders.
Bandara’s reappointment provides continuity to a reform-oriented agenda that has strengthened the Chamber’s governance, ethical standards and engagement with policymakers and regulators. His renewed mandate will focus on converting the progress made during 2025/26 into practical regulatory improvements that support the availability, accessibility and affordability of quality medicines in Sri Lanka.
SLCPI represents more than 70 pharmaceutical importers, manufacturers, distributors and retailers. Its members account for over 90% of Sri Lanka’s private pharmaceutical market, while the wider industry directly employs more than 80,000 people and indirectly supports nearly 400,000.
Reflecting on the past year, Bandara said the industry had operated amid sustained domestic and global pressure. Exchange-rate volatility, disruptions to international shipping routes, rising freight, insurance, fuel and electricity costs, and constrained consumer purchasing power placed significant pressure on pharmaceutical supply chains and business viability.
Despite these challenges, SLCPI continued to engage constructively with the Ministry of Health, the National Medicines Regulatory Authority and other stakeholders, presenting evidence-based recommendations on pharmaceutical pricing, import licence renewals and continuity of supply.
A major achievement during Bandara’s first term was the adoption of new Articles of Association following extensive consultation, legal review and member engagement. The revised Articles provide a stronger constitutional foundation for the Chamber, clarify governance structures and reinforce member rights and responsibilities.
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