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Anticipated IMF bailout package is only part of the solution

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By Jehan Perera

The Paris Club has declared its satisfaction at the agreement reached between the government and IMF regarding a USD 2.9 billion loan to be given over a period of 48 months. The loan will be made under the IMF’s Extended Fund Facility, which helps countries deal with balance of payments or cash flow problems.  The Paris Club is an informal group of rich countries which have given loans to less developed countries.  They seek to find solutions to the repayment difficulties experienced by those countries which invariably occur.  The enlightened self-interest of the countries that constitute the Paris Club can be seen in their member countries’ provision of time, space, advice and more loans to ensure that the original loan obligations to their countries are respected.

In the same manner as the Paris Club group of countries are seeking to ensure that Sri Lanka repays its loans it is important for the government to ensure that it can repay the new loans it is taking without impoverishing the people.  The past six months has seen the living standards of the majority of Sri Lankan people fall precipitously.  The increase in the price of a loaf of bread to Rs 300 is a 500 percent increase of the price that existed six months ago before the economic crisis hit the country.  Likewise, the price of kerosene, the poor man’s fuel, whether fisher, farmer or lower income families, has gone up by about 400 percent.

It was the collapse in the living standards of the masses of people during the period of the Rajapaksa government that generated much antipathy towards the government.  The savings of people has been more than halved due to the fall in value of the Sri Lankan currency and resulting high inflation, though official estimates put the figures at less.  The protest movement obtained the people’s support due to the reasons that affected all of the people regardless of ethnicity, religion or community due to their unmet basic needs.   This is the main problem that the government should be focusing its attention on. Unfortunately, the government does not appear to be prioritising the mitigation of the collapse of the people’s savings and standards of living or even small local producers.

FALSE PICTURE

The government’s non-consultative approach has been criticised by small businesses.  Sri Lanka United National Businesses Alliance (SLUNBA) chairperson Tanya Abesundara is reported to have said the decision to place a temporary ban on the import of 300 items was taken without considering the sub contents listed under the relevant product codes. She said that small and medium enterprises (SMEs) make up a large part of Sri Lanka’s economy, accounting for 80% of all businesses. These are found in all sectors of the economy, primary, secondary and tertiary and provide employment for persons of different skills, skilled, semi-skilled and unskilled. SMEs are an essential source of employment opportunities and are estimated to contribute about 35% of employment.

“We have come to a situation of unable to continue with our activities. The people who took the decision to ban the importation of 300 consumer items do not realise the local production of the country,” she said. “Nearly 4.5 million workers belong to 4,500 SMEs will fall on to the streets for not being able to pay their workers’ wages.  The government is contemplating to print one trillion rupees to pay the salaries of the government sector and for the maintenance of the Parliamentarians, but did not take any measures to protect the SME, which serves as the backbone of the country,” she said. https://www.dailymirror.lk/breaking_news/Govt-should-have-discussed-with-SMEs-before-bringing-import-ban-on-300-consumer-goods-SLUNBA/108-243795

Unfortunately, the government is proceeding as if life were normal and it is business as usual.  It seems as if the protest movement never existed.  Or that it was defeated and negated in the aftermath of the shrewd government strategy to bring in the former prime minister from the ranks of the opposition and thereby create the impression of a new government leadership.  The return of former president Gotabaya Rajapaksa who fled the country due to the intensity of the protest movement is an indication of the government’s belief that it has been subdued and quelled.  This has enabled some of those in the ruling party to call for the former president to be appointed as the new prime minister and for the current president Ranil Wickremesinghe to be guided by the ruling party’s 134 seats in parliament though this number has been reduced by some of them crossing over to the opposition.

The political reality at the present time is that the anticipated influx of IMF funding has induced the government to provide for massive and unproductive funding for a full complement of 30 ministries with 40 deputy ministers and their entourages and provide patronage for their private and corporate friends.  There is also continued acquiescence with the long prevailing trend of providing for increased military spending.  As a result, it can be seen that the country continues to go down to bankruptcy and kleptocracy along the same old path, which simply means a government by those who seek chiefly status and personal gain at the expense of the governed.

On the other hand, on this occasion the country is likely to escape the tragic fate of bankruptcy and all the unintended consequences.  This will be because the IMF and Paris Club, among others, will ensure that the government is provided with sound technical advice.  If implemented it will enable it to both borrow more loans while increasing its capacity to squeeze the rest of the economy to repay the international donors.  The problem, however, is that far from increasing the production capacity of the national economy, those who have politically supported the government to remain in power will be the ones who will be provided for under the cover of darkness, while the rest of the people are squeezed so that repayment of emergency loans can be offered.

OTHER FACTORS

It is also unfortunate that the government is continuing to ignore the basic human rights issues that trouble the people and have earned it the opprobrium of the international human rights community.  Sri Lanka faces the unhappy prospect of being subjected to severe criticism at the present session of the UN Human Rights Council in Geneva.  Successive government delegations have taken differing positions over the years with regard to the concerns articulated by UNHRC in Geneva.  The present session will be particularly important to the country as the UNHRC is expected to decide whether it will come up with a new resolution or continue with the existing one which includes the functioning of a human rights monitoring mechanism in Geneva.  The decision taken at the UNHRC this September can have major consequences to the national economy, in view of the EU’s position that its provision of the GSP plus concession is dependent on Sri Lanka’s human rights record.

External intervention on human rights issues has been rejected in the past and will continue to be articulated in the 51st session of the Council as well. Strategies to address human rights issues need to show tangible evidence of progress in order to remove Sri Lanka from scrutiny of the Council, which seems unlikely in the near future based on Sri Lanka’s past records.  It is unwise of the government to disregard the UNHRC and EU’s expressions of concern on human rights issues especially as they pertain to the Prevention of Terrorism Act.

The government has been utilising  the PTA to intimidate and arrest members of the protest movement on flimsy and illegitimate grounds which the PTA permits.  The PTA was established in 1979 to deal with the growing armed insurrection against the state by armed Tamil militants.  It was extensively used both during the Tamil rebellion and also the JVP insurrection of 1988-89 that occurred in-between successive phases of the Tamil rebellion.   It was extended to the Muslim community following the bombings of April 2019.  Horrendous human rights violations took place on all sides.  It is unreasonable and illegitimate to use this much criticised law to  suppress the protest movement, which has been overwhelmingly peaceful and non-violent.

The coming week will also see the 32nd anniversary of the enforced disappearance of more than 180 persons from the Vantharamoolai camp for internally displaced persons in the eastern theatre of war in 1990.  Former Vice Chancellor of Eastern University, Prof T Jayasingam  who was himself one of the inmates of the camp was also officer-in-charge of the camp.  He was a personal witness to the forcible  removal of 180 persons under his care.  His lament, which he has written on numerous occasions, is that successive governments have done nothing to find  out what happened to those people. This government has done nothing either.   Unless addressed, the unresolved ethnic conflict and impunity for human rights violations (apart from economic crimes) will mean that Sri Lanka continues to slide down the slope to further division and conflict regardless of IMF bailouts or  Paris Club endorsements.



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The Digital Underground

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Illegal Foreign Exchange, Undiyal, Hawala and Money Laundering, A Four-Part Investigative Series

Forex Platforms, Cryptocurrency, AI and the New Financial Battlefield

THE INVISIBLE FINANCIAL EMPIRE – PART III

The Boyfriend Who Was Never Real

Priya, a 34-year-old professional in Colombo, met “David” on LinkedIn. He claimed to work in fintech in Singapore. For six weeks they exchanged messages daily, about work, about life, about a recent trip he had taken to the Maldives. Eventually, the conversation turned, gently and naturally, to money.

“I’ve been trading on this platform, let me show you,” he said, sharing a screenshot of a sleek trading dashboard showing consistent, impressive returns.

Priya invested a small amount first, $500. Within days, her dashboard showed it had grown to $650. She withdrew $100 successfully, just to test it. It worked. Encouraged, she invested more. Then more. Over two months, she transferred a total of $42,000 into the platform.

When she tried to withdraw her full balance, the platform demanded a “regulatory release fee” of $8,000 before funds could be unlocked. She paid it. Then another fee appeared. Then the platform stopped responding altogether. “David” vanished. The trading dashboard, the customer support chat, the entire brokerage, all of it had never been real.

This is what investigators now call “pig butchering”, and, in 2026, the most disturbing development is not the scam itself, which has existed for years, but what now powers it: artificial intelligence has industrialised the entire operation.

From Manual Fraud to Machine-Generated Deception

For most of the past decade, romance-and-investment scams, like the one that targeted Priya, required enormous manual labour. Scam operations, many of them staffed by trafficked workers held against their will in compounds across Myanmar, Cambodia, and Laos, needed real humans to build relationships with victims over weeks, manage fake trading platforms, and respond convincingly to questions.

That labour-intensive model has now been substantially automated. According to financial-crime researchers tracking this shift through 2026, threat actors are standing up entire AI-generated “brokerage” experiences end-to-end, complete with KYC onboarding, branded customer-service chat, animated portfolio dashboards, and falsified live market data feeds, and operating them at industrial scale against multiple victims simultaneously. Generative-AI relationship managers now front the WhatsApp and Telegram conversations that once required real human scammers. AI-cloned regulator letters are generated on demand to justify the fake “release fees” that drain victims a final time before the platform disappears.

What has changed is not the deception itself, it is the production economics. The cost of running a credible synthetic brokerage against one additional victim has collapsed, meaning a single criminal network can now run hundreds of “Davids” simultaneously, each one indistinguishable from a genuine fintech professional until it is too late. (Figure 01)

Sri Lanka: From Victim Pool to Operating Base

Sri Lanka’s relationship to this global scam economy has shifted in an alarming direction over the past two years. The country is no longer only a source of victims, it has become an operating base for the criminal networks themselves.

In April, 2026, Sri Lankan police raided a five-star hotel property, in Ambakandavila, and arrested 150 individuals, including 133 Chinese nationals, 13 Vietnamese nationals, and one Malaysian national, allegedly running a cyber fraud centre with links to international criminal syndicates, based in Myanmar and Cambodia. Investigators say the operation followed a now-familiar regional pattern: recruiters advertise “online marketing” or “data entry” jobs on social media to lure foreign workers to Sri Lanka, confiscate their passports on arrival, and force them to operate scam campaigns under threat.

The Central Bank of Sri Lanka has formally flagged pig-butchering scams as a “developing threat,” warning that foreign scam networks are increasingly targeting overseas nationals through scam farms operating from Sri Lankan soil. A 2026 United Nations report estimated that at least 300,000 people have been trafficked into scam centres across Southeast Asia.

This is not an abstract international problem. It is unfolding in hotels and rented properties across the country, exploiting the same infrastructure, high-speed internet, affordable accommodation, accessible tourist visas, that Sri Lanka has built to attract legitimate digital businesses and tourists.

Where the Money Actually Goes: The Stablecoin Pipeline

Behind every successful pig-butchering scam sits a laundering pipeline that has been transformed almost as dramatically as the scams themselves, and the transformation has a single dominant feature: stablecoins.

According to the Financial Action Task Force’s March 2026, report, drawing on analysis from blockchain intelligence firms Chainalysis and TRM Labs, stablecoins accounted for 84% of the USD 154 billion in illicit virtual asset transaction volume recorded in 2025, the highest share ever observed, and a dramatic jump from just 15% only a few years earlier. TRM Labs separately found that illicit entities received USD 141 billion in stablecoins, in 2025 alone, the highest level observed in five years. (See Table 01)

The scale of state-level abuse is striking. A Russian sanctions-evasion network built around the ruble-pegged stablecoin A7A5 processed more than USD 72 billion in total volume in 2025.

Fighting Fire with Fire: AI on the Defensive Side

The same artificial intelligence reshaping financial crime is also, out of necessity, reshaping the defence against it. Legacy anti-money laundering systems, built on static, rule-based thresholds, have proven badly outmatched by AI-generated fraud operating at machine speed. Research cited by compliance technology analysts suggests that between 90% and 95% of alerts generated by legacy AML systems are false positives, consuming enormous investigator time while genuinely suspicious activity slips through.

This is not a frictionless transition. AI models are notoriously difficult to explain to regulators and examiners in the way traditional rule-based systems are. The practical compromise emerging across the industry is a hybrid model: AI handles the initial scoring and prioritisation of risk, while documented rule-based logic still governs the final decision that must be defensible to a regulator.

The Regulatory Response: Catching Up to the Digital Frontier

Regulators worldwide have begun moving to close the most dangerous gaps exposed by this digital transformation of financial crime. (See Table 02)

What Comes Next

We have now traced this investigation from the centuries-old mechanics of Hawala and Undiyal, through the three-stage architecture that turns criminal proceeds into apparently legitimate wealth, to the AI-generated frontier of digital financial crime reshaping all of it at machine speed.

In our concluding instalment, Part IV: “Sri Lanka at the Crossroads: Economic Consequences, Organised Crime and the Road Ahead”, we bring this series home. We examine precisely what all of this costs Sri Lanka in hard economic terms: lost remittances, exchange rate pressure, tax revenue forgone, and the 2026 FATF evaluation that will determine whether the country’s institutions can demonstrate, with evidence rather than legislation alone, that they are equal to this challenge. We close with a practical policy roadmap.

(The writer, a senior Chartered Accountant and professional banker, is Professor at SLIIT, Malabe.
Views expressed in this article are personal.)

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‘There are no private universities in Sri Lanka’ – some considerations for higher education reform

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Academics involved in education policy like to say that there is no such thing as a private university in Sri Lanka. The only ‘universities’ in the country are state universities; anything else offering degrees is a private higher education institution (HEI). This position is technically accurate. Yet, in the discourse and imagination of the public, private universities are very real – people teach in them, students register in them, families pay fees, and such degree holders enter job markets in Sri Lanka and outside.

For decades, activists concerned for public higher education have ignored or resisted looking at private HEIs, as if such scrutiny would taint them. Others have worked in both types of institutions, carrying practices from each to the other. The apex body governing state universities, the UGC, has, meanwhile, ignored the concept of conflict of interest and appointed individuals in private higher education in committees and leadership positions. It is unsurprising then that some of the ideologies informing private higher education appear in reform agendas in the state sector.

This is a good time then to consider the varying types of private HEIs around us, and to take a look at some of the issues within them in the hope that higher education reform agendas will include private, as well as state higher education.

What is a ‘private university’?

First, some clarifications. In the public imaginary, a ‘private university’ is typically an institution that provides a foreign or local degree for which the student makes a payment. But this broad classification encompasses a host of diverse institutions and types of degrees which I detail below.

The Non-State Higher Education Division (NSHE) of the Ministry of Education has recognised 295 degrees by 32 institutions. Most of these are private companies and include a handful of established, well-known private HEIs that are ‘university like’. The degrees are local degrees conferred by the institutions accredited by the NSHE Division. While private HEIs conferring local degrees must be accredited by the NSHE Division, there appears to be no legal consequence for not doing so. In addition, there are several permutations of the private degree that miss the net of this Division and the Standing Committee on Accreditation and Quality Assurance (SCAQA) that assists this Division.

For one, degrees conferred by foreign universities offered, via these same private HEIs, are not vetted by the NSHE Division. Secondly, there is a growing plethora of private HEIs which have either no physical presence locally or only a dubious presence. The University Grants Commission has notified the public, through their website, that foreign universities listed in the Commonwealth Universities Yearbook and the World Higher Education Database are recognised, but refrained from giving any other details – which degrees? Offered by what modes? These details are not known. Some of the foreign universities in the lists may be legitimate entities in their own land but the degrees conferred locally, in their name, may not adhere to curriculum or teaching specifications of the NSHE Division or the UGC.

Another troubling phenomenon is the ‘top up degree’, which appears to work on the same principle as that of a pre-paid mobile connection: if I have a Diploma or an HND of a sort, I am eligible to complete a course of study which provides me with a degree, usually from a foreign university. The idea that someone who does not initially qualify for a degree programme should be able to work their way towards one is a progressive notion. This is the concept that open and distance learning (ODL) was based on initially, but which is now sadly exploited. ODL models are expected to provide opportunity for learning for those who may be excluded from traditional learning institutions. In Sri Lanka, however, we have seen ODL become a marketplace offering easy to obtain, for-fee qualifications by institutions with little commitment to superior teaching and learning.

Finally, a perusal of the many types of private HEIs and their varied degrees bring to mind another question – how should the private degrees, provided by state institutions (that are not educational institutions), be regulated? Who should do so?

All of these create a host of problems for the public – for hopeful students and parents and trusting employers. For the higher education sector, recruitment of academic staff, too, has become difficult due to this plethora of ambiguous higher education qualifications, as I discussed in a previous Kuppi article (‘Recruiting academics to state universities’).

Some issues in private HEIs – a bellwether for change in state universities

In this second part of this article, I will discuss some aspects of work in private HEIs – albeit the more established institutions – given that such issues may appear in reform agendas in future.

Across state universities, all permanent staff of a specific category are paid according to the same criteria. The picture is not so clear when it comes to private HEIs since they are different entities legally, typically companies. Private HEIs have salary scales and financial incentives that are different to each other. The more established private HEIs reportedly have attractive renumeration packages, possibly a reason for academics of state universities migrating eagerly to such institutions during sabbatical years and on retirement. This may not of course be the case with other less established, or improperly registered HEIs of which we know little. Academic staff of these more accepted private HEIs seem to value the high financial remuneration they receive (in comparison to state universities) as something that makes their work rewarding.

Attractive remuneration is important to sustain the good life and is at times seen as the institution’s way of encouraging good work. Yet, this has implications for the future of the institution: to continue to deliver on promised financial packages, institutions must continue to have large profit margins. One strategy has been to enroll multiple cohorts of students per year, even up to three or four intakes per year. This can result in exploitative work conditions, since staff must cater to all these cohorts in that same year. If there is inadequate staff, employees are further burdened. On the other hand, if there is a sudden drop in enrolments (degrees can go out of fashion) unexpected layoffs occur. Similar to other sectors that employ short-term contract staff – including state universities – in private HEIs, too, individual teachers, who are on short term contracts that need regular renewal, can feel pressured to work under difficult or exploitative conditions.

At the same time, even in the more established private HEIs, work norms differ from those of state universities in that they include promotional work that keeps the institution’s name in the eye of the public. The Marketing (or similarly named) unit comes up in conversations as one of the most important departments. It appears to weigh in on decision-making related to the number of staff, the amount of re-sits per exams, and other pedagogically important matters. This is a worrying example of how financial rationales interfere with pedagogically or academically sound processes, resulting in problematic results in the classroom. On the plus side, junior colleagues, who had experience in both state and private HEIs, also felt that they faced less harassment in private HEIs – primarily due to the private HEIs ability to take swift action in reported cases of harassment. This is a real indictment on state institutions and their reluctance to address chronic issues of harassment in our universities.

Yet, while we hear much about problems in state universities, we hardly hear of problems that staff in private HEIs face. One rationale for a lack of public expressions by staff is that expressions of discontent might lead to trouble given the importance of reputation for private HEIs. The worry about reputational damage is a growing concern in state universities, too, as evidenced by social media policies and internal conversations on reputational damage, consequent to negative publicity. Institutional worries of reputational damage are harmful in the long run since these impact not only freedom of expression by student and staff, but also research that is possible in and about the education sector.

Some thoughts at the end…


A close look at the private higher education sector is important given its strong presence in the country. Impending reform needs to regulate this diverse array of higher education offerings in the private sector, as well as the state institutions that offer privately-funded options of higher education (a topic for a separate Kuppi on its own). It is time we carefully considered how to build a whole system of higher education out of this broken mess.

Kaushalya Perera is a senior lecturer at the University of Colombo.

Kuppi is a politics and pedagogy happening on the margins of the lecture hall that parodies, subverts, and simultaneously reaffirms social hierarchies.

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Ready for solo spotlight

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Nish Peiris: Excited about future plans

Singer Nish Peiris is set to take the next big step in her music journey.

The talented vocalist, who has been seen and heard in the scene here for a short while, and was also featured with the now-defunct band, Inner Vision, has announced that she will be fully committing to her solo career, after completing her degree this year.

“I’m finishing my degree this year, and after that I’ll be fully committing to my solo music career,” Nish told The Island.

“I’ve already got a few tours lined up for next year, so I’m really excited for what’s ahead.”

Fans, no doubt, will remember Nish for her smooth voice and stage presence, and the good news is that she is now ready to chart her own path and bring new music to audiences at home and abroad.

With tours already planned for 2027, the year 2026 promises to be an exciting year for the young artiste as she steps into the spotlight on her own.

We wish Nish every success in this new chapter!

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