News
An October Surprise
By Gwynne Dyer
An ‘October Surprise’ in the United States is now almost inevitable, because that will be Donald Trump’s last chance to get re-elected legitimately. He might try to cling to office even if he loses the vote, but it would be a lot easier and neater if he actually won a majority in the Electoral College on 3 November.
‘October Surprise’ is the American political term for a fake crisis, usually involving foreigners, that is ‘discovered’ by a president trailing badly in the polls in the last few weeks before an election. All other issues are forgotten, Americans rally around the flag, and the incumbent wins on a surge of patriotism. Or that’s the theory, at least.
The same thing happens elsewhere too, of course, and not necessarily in October. That’s when it needs to happen in to win a US presidential election, but there’s a ‘July Surprise’ happening in Belarus right now (because the election there is set for 9 August).
Last week Alexander Lukashenko, the strongman who rules Belarus, ‘discovered’ Russian mercenaries in his country. They were unarmed and on their way to Istanbul, but Lukashenko says there is a plot: “So far there is no open warfare, no shooting, the trigger has not yet been pulled, but an attempt to organise a massacre in the centre of Minsk is already obvious.” Only I can save our country! Vote for me!
Trump will need something like that because otherwise the coronavirus is going to kill him politically. This was not true as recently as early June, because up until then the United States was not performing especially badly in dealing with the pandemic.
It LOOKED a lot worse because of Trump’s bizarre behaviour – the endless, shameless lies, the narcissism, the suggestions that people should inject bleach, etc. – but in terms of Covid-19 deaths per million people the American fatality rate was still lower than any other major Western countries except Germany and Canada.
The United States was late to go into lockdown, but so were they all, at least compared to most Asian countries. Until recently, if you were a Trump supporter, you could still believe he was doing a good job.
It was Trump’s rush to end the lockdown, not all the earlier nonsense, that did the real damage. He believed that he would lose the election if the economy didn’t revive, but by opening up too fast he managed to revive the pandemic at the same time.
The numbers tell the tale. This week America will record its 160,000th death from Covid-19. That’s almost a quarter of all the coronavirus deaths in the world. Much worse, US deaths are still going up while deaths elsewhere in the developed world have fallen steeply. That’s almost entirely due to Trump.
Take Canada, for example. It’s very similar to the US in economy and demography, but different in social and political terms. Canada has universal health care and a much less drastic divide between the rich and the rest, for example, which probably explains why America’s cumulative death rate per million is 484, while Canada’s is only 237.
The history is therefore an American death rate twice as high as Canada’s: not great, but structurally inevitable. By now, however, Canada has managed to get its deaths down to 10 a day, whereas America is back up around a 1,000 a day.
Even allowing for Canada’s much smaller population, that is 10 times worse. This is what coming out of lockdown too early did to the United States, and it is all down to Donald Trump.
The pandemic is raging again in the United States, and there may be a quarter-million deaths there by election day in November. US ‘deaths per million’ are going up three per day, which means that the US will overtake Chile (now 509) in less than two weeks, Italy (582) in a month, Spain (609) in five weeks. It might even catch up with the UK (682) by election day.
Most of those newly dead Americans will be over 60, so probably Trump supporters. Their relatives and friends are bound to notice eventually. Joe Biden’s lead over Donald Trump in the polls has already widened to 10%. How could Trump turn that around in the remaining 90 S days?
His only hope is to manufacture an October Surprise: a restaged ‘Tonkin Gulf Incident’ with China, perhaps, or a terrorist ‘threat’ so humongous that it gives him a pretext to declare martial law nationwide. Or maybe he will arrange the premature certification of a Covid-19 vaccine so he can roll it out just before the vote. If it kills a lot of people later on, who cares? He won.
Trump knows that if he loses the election he will spend the rest of his life in court, possibly even in jail. He will do whatever it takes to win. It isn’t over yet.
A discussion on the functioning of the Internal Affairs Units established within state institutions and the implementation of the National Anti-Corruption Action Plan 2025–2029 was held at the Presidential Secretariat on 29 May under the patronage of the Secretary to the President Dr Nandika Sanath Kumanayake. The meeting focused on advancing Sri Lanka’s anti-corruption efforts, particularly within key revenue-generating and revenue-collecting institutions, namely the Sri Lanka Customs, the Inland Revenue Department, and the Department of Excise.
During the discussion, the measures currently being implemented to strengthen anti-corruption initiatives and foster a culture of integrity within these institutions were reviewed. Attention was also given to future initiatives aimed at further reinforcing ethical governance and promoting a stronger culture of integrity across these organisations.
The meeting was attended by Additional Secretary to the President Ms Chandima Wickramasinghe, Director General of Customs W. S. K. Liyanagama, Commissioner General of Inland Revenue R. P. H. Fernando, and Commissioner General of Excise M. B. N. A. Pemarathna, together with the heads of the Internal Affairs Units of the respective institutions.
(PMD)
Leader of the Tamil Progressive Alliance (TPA), Mano Ganeshan, MP, said that India shouldn’t intervene here regarding the long-delayed Provincial Council polls.
The former Yahapalana Minister of National Co-existence, Dialogue and Official Languages (2015-2018), Ganeshan, who represents the main Opposition Samagi Jana Balawegaya (SJB) in the current Parliament, stressed that New Delhi’s intervention wouldn’t do any good for them or for us.
Lawmaker Ganeshan said so when The Island asked him whether the TPA would ask India to pressure the NPP government to conduct PC polls, last held in 2014, during Mahinda Rajapaksa’s second term. Ganeshan said: “India shouldn’t get involved in the issue at hand . Such a strategy is also in their interest, particularly in the context of the evolving global order. India should not be perceived as a pro-Tamil state, but rather as a state that supports Sri Lanka as a whole.”
Ganeshan said that the Indian state bears a moral responsibility in this matter. “That responsibility arises from the fact that India’s diplomacy and military intervention played a decisive role in neutralising the Tamil armed struggle in Sri Lanka. Although India’s mission remained unfinished, it nevertheless lost nearly two thousand soldiers in the process. There was also a prelude to this involvement, when Tamil militant groups received training in India. Consequently, the Indian connection became a sensitive issue for both the Sinhalese and Tamils of Sri Lanka.”
But, whatever had happened, the national issue should be settled among us. ” The solution must be found and settled within Sri Lanka itself. We do not need Western interventions in this regard.”
” In recent years, whenever we in the Tamil Progressive Alliance (TPA) have met Indian dignitaries—including the Prime Minister, the External Affairs Minister, and, most recently, the Vice President—the subjects of the 13th Amendment and Provincial Councils have never featured on our agenda.”
The 13th Amendment is part of Sri Lanka’s Constitution. Therefore, it is for Sri Lankans themselves to decide whether to retain, improve, fully implement, reform, or even repeal it, Ganeshan said.
MP Ganeshan found fault with those who represented the Northern and Eastern provinces for failing to utilise the goodwill and influence India enjoyed with successive Governments of Sri Lanka to pursue an amicable political settlement. The parliamentarian said that they should acted after the end of the war in May, 2009. Unfortunately, they failed to effectively use the Provincial Council framework to consolidate their political position and advance further, thereby earning the confidence of both India and successive Sinhala-majority governments, MP Ganeshan said.
Responding to another query, MP Ganeshan said: “
We should keep the ethnic issue separate from bilateral relations with India, while deepening economic connectivity and cooperation on the basis of mutual benefit and a win-win partnership.”
By Shamindra Ferdinando
Sri Lanka has taken delivery of 10 TH-57 ‘Sea Ranger’ multi-role helicopters provided by the United States of America to the Sri Lanka Air Force. Air Forces headquarters said that the helicopters arrived here by sea.
The SLAF has said: “The arrival of these aircraft marks a significant milestone in the longstanding defence cooperation between Sri Lanka and the United States and represents a valuable contribution towards enhancing the operational and training capabilities of the Sri Lanka Air Force.
“The helicopters are currently undergoing configurations and technical preparations at SLAF Base Ratmalana. Following the completion of requisite inspections, acceptance procedures and test flights, the aircraft will be inducted into service and deployed for operational duties.
“The TH-57 fleet is expected to significantly strengthen the Air Force’s aviation training capacity while enhancing the ability to support a broad spectrum of national requirements. The aircraft will primarily be employed for pilot training, humanitarian assistance and disaster response (HADR) operations, search and rescue (SAR) missions and other public service commitments undertaken by the Sri Lanka Air Force.”
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