News

An October Surprise

Published

6 years ago

2020/08/7

By Gwynne Dyer

An ‘October Surprise’ in the United States is now almost inevitable, because that will be Donald Trump’s last chance to get re-elected legitimately. He might try to cling to office even if he loses the vote, but it would be a lot easier and neater if he actually won a majority in the Electoral College on 3 November.

‘October Surprise’ is the American political term for a fake crisis, usually involving foreigners, that is ‘discovered’ by a president trailing badly in the polls in the last few weeks before an election. All other issues are forgotten, Americans rally around the flag, and the incumbent wins on a surge of patriotism. Or that’s the theory, at least.

The same thing happens elsewhere too, of course, and not necessarily in October. That’s when it needs to happen in to win a US presidential election, but there’s a ‘July Surprise’ happening in Belarus right now (because the election there is set for 9 August).

Last week Alexander Lukashenko, the strongman who rules Belarus, ‘discovered’ Russian mercenaries in his country. They were unarmed and on their way to Istanbul, but Lukashenko says there is a plot: “So far there is no open warfare, no shooting, the trigger has not yet been pulled, but an attempt to organise a massacre in the centre of Minsk is already obvious.” Only I can save our country! Vote for me!

Trump will need something like that because otherwise the coronavirus is going to kill him politically. This was not true as recently as early June, because up until then the United States was not performing especially badly in dealing with the pandemic.

It LOOKED a lot worse because of Trump’s bizarre behaviour – the endless, shameless lies, the narcissism, the suggestions that people should inject bleach, etc. – but in terms of Covid-19 deaths per million people the American fatality rate was still lower than any other major Western countries except Germany and Canada.

The United States was late to go into lockdown, but so were they all, at least compared to most Asian countries. Until recently, if you were a Trump supporter, you could still believe he was doing a good job.

It was Trump’s rush to end the lockdown, not all the earlier nonsense, that did the real damage. He believed that he would lose the election if the economy didn’t revive, but by opening up too fast he managed to revive the pandemic at the same time.

The numbers tell the tale. This week America will record its 160,000th death from Covid-19. That’s almost a quarter of all the coronavirus deaths in the world. Much worse, US deaths are still going up while deaths elsewhere in the developed world have fallen steeply. That’s almost entirely due to Trump.

Take Canada, for example. It’s very similar to the US in economy and demography, but different in social and political terms. Canada has universal health care and a much less drastic divide between the rich and the rest, for example, which probably explains why America’s cumulative death rate per million is 484, while Canada’s is only 237.

The history is therefore an American death rate twice as high as Canada’s: not great, but structurally inevitable. By now, however, Canada has managed to get its deaths down to 10 a day, whereas America is back up around a 1,000 a day.

Even allowing for Canada’s much smaller population, that is 10 times worse. This is what coming out of lockdown too early did to the United States, and it is all down to Donald Trump.

The pandemic is raging again in the United States, and there may be a quarter-million deaths there by election day in November. US ‘deaths per million’ are going up three per day, which means that the US will overtake Chile (now 509) in less than two weeks, Italy (582) in a month, Spain (609) in five weeks. It might even catch up with the UK (682) by election day.

Most of those newly dead Americans will be over 60, so probably Trump supporters. Their relatives and friends are bound to notice eventually. Joe Biden’s lead over Donald Trump in the polls has already widened to 10%. How could Trump turn that around in the remaining 90 S days?

His only hope is to manufacture an October Surprise: a restaged ‘Tonkin Gulf Incident’ with China, perhaps, or a terrorist ‘threat’ so humongous that it gives him a pretext to declare martial law nationwide. Or maybe he will arrange the premature certification of a Covid-19 vaccine so he can roll it out just before the vote. If it kills a lot of people later on, who cares? He won.

Trump knows that if he loses the election he will spend the rest of his life in court, possibly even in jail. He will do whatever it takes to win. It isn’t over yet.

All News Advertisement

Latest News

Our goal is to build a “Thriving Nation” where a woman can walk without fear or doubt, where her talents are duly recognized, and where she can lead a life of dignity – PM

Published

3 hours ago

2026/03/8

Priyan

Prime Minister Dr Harini Amarsooriya in her message on International Women’s Day 2026 says that the governments goal is to build a Thriving Nation where a woman can walk without fear or doubt, where her talents are duly recognized, and where she can lead a life of dignity.

The PM’s message:

“I extend my greetings to all sisters and daughters in Sri Lanka and around the globe on the occasion of International Women’s Day.This year, the United Nations has declared the global theme for International Women’s Day as “Rights. Justice. Action. For ALL Women and Girls,” emphasizing the realization of rights, the delivery of justice, and meaningful action for all women and girls.

Women are the true pillar of Sri Lankan society and economy. The role they play within the family and in society has today become a decisive factor in shaping the future of our nation. Through the Government’s policy statement, “A Thriving Nation – A Beautiful Life,” we envision going beyond treating women as mere beneficiaries and recognizing them as active partners in national development, ensuring that they receive the dignity and opportunities they rightfully deserve.

Within our policy framework, special focus has been placed on women. We are committed to recognizing the economic contribution extended by women as housewives, promoting women’s entrepreneurship, and expanding access to the technical and financial support necessary for self-employment alongside strengthening the legal framework required to ensure women’s safety in public transport, workplaces, and within the family environment. Further, we are taking steps to create the environment to increase women’s representation in decision-making bodies at national and regional levels. Special attention is also being given to implementing targeted programmes aimed at improving women’s nutrition, reproductive health, and mental well-being.

Women are not a group seeking sympathy; they are vital social partners endowed with intelligence, resilience, and creativity. Our goal is to build a “Thriving Nation” where a woman can walk without fear or doubt, where her talents are duly recognized, and where she can lead a life of dignity

On this International Women’s Day, I sincerely hope that it marks the beginning of a new era in which the aspirations of all women in our country are realized as they shine before the world.

Latest News

Heat Index at Caution Level in the Sabaragamuwa, North-western and North-central provinces and in Colombo, Gampaha, Vavuniya, Mannar, Hambantota and Monaragala districts

Published

3 hours ago

2026/03/8

Priyan

Warm Weather Advisory issued by the Natural Hazards Early Warning Centre of the Department of Meteorology at 3.30 p.m. on 07 March 2026, valid for 08 March 2026.

Heat index, the temperature felt on human body is likely to increase up to ‘Caution level’ at some places in the Sabaragamuwa, North-western and North-central provinces and in Colombo, Gampaha, Vavuniya, Mannar, Hambantota and Monaragala districts

The Heat Index Forecast is calculated by using relative humidity and maximum temperature and this is the condition that is felt on your body. This is not the forecast of maximum temperature. It is generated by the Department of Meteorology for the next day period and prepared by using global numerical weather prediction model data.

Effect of the heat index on human body is mentioned in the above table and it is prepared on the advice of the Ministry of Health and Indigenous Medical Services.

ACTION REQUIRED

Job sites: Stay hydrated and takes breaks in the shade as often as possible.
Indoors: Check up on the elderly and the sick.
Vehicles: Never leave children unattended.
Outdoors: Limit strenuous outdoor activities, find shade and stay hydrated.
Dress: Wear lightweight and white or light-colored clothing.

Note:
In addition, please refer to advisories issued by the Disaster Preparedness & Response Division, Ministry of Health in this regard as well. For further clarifications please contact 011-7446491.

News

Lanka tea industry may lose $ 10-15 mn per week from ME war

Published

3 hours ago

2026/03/8

Thilina Walpola

The ongoing military conflict in the Middle East has adversely impacted on the Sri Lankan tea industry as the exporters are unable to supply tea to the region. The exporters estimate the revenue loss at about $ 10-15 million per week. The exporters have orders in hand for supply of tea and it is the logistical issues and war risk preventing them fulfilling such orders, the Tea Exporters Association (TEA) said in a statement.

“In order to mitigate the impact on the industry, the tea industry has jointly requested the government to support it in addressing the cash flow issue and consider absorbing a part of the additional freight and insurance charges. It has also requested government intervention to obtain the balance payment of about $ 50 million due on tea shipments already made to Iran under the barter deal,” TEA said on Friday.

The statement said approximately 52% of Sri Lanka’s tea exports reach the affected region mainly coming from the low grown area of the country dominated by tea smallholder farmers. According to 2025 tea export statistics, about 125 million kilograms of Ceylon tea were exported to the Middle East, with an estimated value of USD 750 million. The major importing countries of Ceylon Tea in the region include Iraq, Iran, Libya, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Syria, and the United Arab Emirates. Though Libya and Turkey can be reached via Africa, the exorbitant freight charges have prevented the buyers in those countries from importing tea at the moment.

The supply routes to Middle East countries go via Strait of Hormuz and Red sea Suez Canal. Although there is no blockade on Suez Canal, due to the war risk both channels are currently not used by the major shipping lines. The tea exports to the region have almost come to a standstill due to the following reasons:

=All major shipping lines suspended their services to the region immediately after the outbreak of the conflict.

=Several seaports in the region were temporarily closed during the initial stages.

= Although a few shipping lines resumed limited operations from March 4, freight charges have

increased significantly by approximately USD 1,800 for a 20’ container and USD 3,000 for a 40’ container.

= Existing insurance coverage obtained by exporters is no longer valid.

=There is a lack of regular and scheduled vessels operating from Colombo to Middle Eastern destinations.

The tea exporters are experiencing serious cash flow constraints, as payments for shipments already

dispatched have been delayed due to the unsettled situation in the region. This has restricted exporters’

buying capacity and that was evident at this week’s tea auction, where overall prices declined by about Rs. 50/ per kg while low grown tea prices declined by about Rs. 75/ per kg.

If the situation continues for few more weeks it will have a serious impact on the tea auction as buyers may curtail the purchase of tea if the outward movements are restricted. This could directly impact on the income of the tea smallholder farmers.

In January 2026, the country earned $ 121.8 million from tea exports compared to $ 112.7 million in January 2025 (a 5% increase). The figures for February 2026 are not yet available but should be either similar to last year or higher. The disruption to tea exports in March will certainly affect the volume and value of the exports though the exact amounts cannot be estimated at this point.

According to the available data Sri Lanka has settled about 95% of its debt to Iran by supplying tea to Iran under the Tea for Oil mechanism. Even if the military conflict comes to an end, Sri Lanka will find it difficult to continue to supply tea to Iran unless a new mechanism is introduced. Under the prevailing US sanctions on Iran, the exporters may not be able to supply tea to Iran outside the barter system. Iran purchases about 11 million kg of tea from Sri Lanka annually under the barter deal.

The situation was discussed with the Minister of Plantation & Community Infrastructure at a meeting held on March 4, 2026.