News
An October Surprise
By Gwynne Dyer
An ‘October Surprise’ in the United States is now almost inevitable, because that will be Donald Trump’s last chance to get re-elected legitimately. He might try to cling to office even if he loses the vote, but it would be a lot easier and neater if he actually won a majority in the Electoral College on 3 November.
‘October Surprise’ is the American political term for a fake crisis, usually involving foreigners, that is ‘discovered’ by a president trailing badly in the polls in the last few weeks before an election. All other issues are forgotten, Americans rally around the flag, and the incumbent wins on a surge of patriotism. Or that’s the theory, at least.
The same thing happens elsewhere too, of course, and not necessarily in October. That’s when it needs to happen in to win a US presidential election, but there’s a ‘July Surprise’ happening in Belarus right now (because the election there is set for 9 August).
Last week Alexander Lukashenko, the strongman who rules Belarus, ‘discovered’ Russian mercenaries in his country. They were unarmed and on their way to Istanbul, but Lukashenko says there is a plot: “So far there is no open warfare, no shooting, the trigger has not yet been pulled, but an attempt to organise a massacre in the centre of Minsk is already obvious.” Only I can save our country! Vote for me!
Trump will need something like that because otherwise the coronavirus is going to kill him politically. This was not true as recently as early June, because up until then the United States was not performing especially badly in dealing with the pandemic.
It LOOKED a lot worse because of Trump’s bizarre behaviour – the endless, shameless lies, the narcissism, the suggestions that people should inject bleach, etc. – but in terms of Covid-19 deaths per million people the American fatality rate was still lower than any other major Western countries except Germany and Canada.
The United States was late to go into lockdown, but so were they all, at least compared to most Asian countries. Until recently, if you were a Trump supporter, you could still believe he was doing a good job.
It was Trump’s rush to end the lockdown, not all the earlier nonsense, that did the real damage. He believed that he would lose the election if the economy didn’t revive, but by opening up too fast he managed to revive the pandemic at the same time.
The numbers tell the tale. This week America will record its 160,000th death from Covid-19. That’s almost a quarter of all the coronavirus deaths in the world. Much worse, US deaths are still going up while deaths elsewhere in the developed world have fallen steeply. That’s almost entirely due to Trump.
Take Canada, for example. It’s very similar to the US in economy and demography, but different in social and political terms. Canada has universal health care and a much less drastic divide between the rich and the rest, for example, which probably explains why America’s cumulative death rate per million is 484, while Canada’s is only 237.
The history is therefore an American death rate twice as high as Canada’s: not great, but structurally inevitable. By now, however, Canada has managed to get its deaths down to 10 a day, whereas America is back up around a 1,000 a day.
Even allowing for Canada’s much smaller population, that is 10 times worse. This is what coming out of lockdown too early did to the United States, and it is all down to Donald Trump.
The pandemic is raging again in the United States, and there may be a quarter-million deaths there by election day in November. US ‘deaths per million’ are going up three per day, which means that the US will overtake Chile (now 509) in less than two weeks, Italy (582) in a month, Spain (609) in five weeks. It might even catch up with the UK (682) by election day.
Most of those newly dead Americans will be over 60, so probably Trump supporters. Their relatives and friends are bound to notice eventually. Joe Biden’s lead over Donald Trump in the polls has already widened to 10%. How could Trump turn that around in the remaining 90 S days?
His only hope is to manufacture an October Surprise: a restaged ‘Tonkin Gulf Incident’ with China, perhaps, or a terrorist ‘threat’ so humongous that it gives him a pretext to declare martial law nationwide. Or maybe he will arrange the premature certification of a Covid-19 vaccine so he can roll it out just before the vote. If it kills a lot of people later on, who cares? He won.
Trump knows that if he loses the election he will spend the rest of his life in court, possibly even in jail. He will do whatever it takes to win. It isn’t over yet.
Several ex-Cabinet ministers questioned; Ranil, Sajith, too likely to be summoned
The Commission to Investigate Allegations of Bribery or Corruption (CIABOC) has initiated an inquiry into the shifting of the Agriculture Ministry situated at Rajamalwatte, to a building belonging to the D. P. Jayasinghe Group of Companies, at Rajagiriya, during the Yahapalana government.
The building was rented for a five-year period at a cost of over Rs 1 bn by the yahapalana government within months after the then President Maithripala Sirisena declared opened the 10-storey building complex.
The CIABOC yesterday morning recorded former yahapalana minister Gayantha Karunatilleke’s statement in connection with the investigation. Later in the day, CIABOC recorded the statement of SJB General Secretary Ranjith Maddumabanadara. Earlier CIABOC summoned former ministers Thalatha Atukorale, Wajira Abeywardena and Lakshman Kiriella. At the time of the finalisation of the deal, KIriella was in the UNP.
Sources said that former PM and President Ranil Wickremesinghe, too, was likely to be questioned in this regard. Responding to The Island queries, sources pointed out even SJB leader Sajith Premadasa was expected to be questioned.
The then Speaker Karu Jayasuriya is on record as having said that the building was rented in keeping with a decision taken by the government and not Parliament.
The UNP-SLFP coalition shifted the Agriculture Ministry to accommodate 16 Sectoral Oversight Committees therein.
Although the government paid as much as Rs. 21.5 mn monthly rent to D.P.A. Jayasinghe Company, the Agriculture Ministry failed to move in for over a year. The then Agriculture Minister Duminda Dissanayake sought Cabinet approval on Dec 1, 2015 to rent the building.
According to inquiries conducted earlier by the Presidential Commission appointed to probe state sector corruption, the Agriculture Ministry sought Cabinet approval for a new building after the then Prime Minister Wickremesinghe submitted a cabinet proposal on 21 September, 2015, to use the Agriculture Ministry building for Parliament’s sectoral oversight committees.
PM Wickremesinghe’s Secretary Saman Ekanayake has told the Commission that public funds could have been saved if the several vacant floors of Suhurupaya belonging to the Defence Ministry had been made available to the Agriculture Ministry.
By Shamindra Ferdinando ✍️
Railway sources said that the damages caused to railway tracks could be more than USD 300 mn.
According to UNDP Rapid Crisis Assessment Sri Lanka’s railroad system, over 278 km of railways were exposed to cyclone-related flooding, including 35 railroad bridges nationwide. This figure reflects flooding only, but other hazards (such as localised debris, landslides, or damage to a single bridge) can also disrupt operations, meaning that even relatively small obstructions can render long stretches of railway non-operational. Like road exposure, railway exposure limits mobility and the capacity of affected populations to access key services and infrastructure.
At the level of divisional secretariats, Colombo and Thimbirigasyaya in Colombo District, Ja Ela in Gampaha District, as well as Mannar Town and Nanaddan in Mannar District all registered over 10 km of exposed railways each.
Commissioner-General of Essential Services B.K. Prabath Chandrakeerthi is on record as having said that only 478 kilometers of Sri Lanka’s 1,593-km railway network were currently usable following extensive damage caused by the recent cyclone.
Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs Allison Hooker arrived in Colombo yesterday (11) to underscore US interest in defence, trade and maritime security in line with their Indo-Pacific strategy.
The US embassy here issued the following statement: “Under Secretary Hooker will meet with Sri Lankan counterparts to discuss a wide range of bilateral issues, focused on deepening economic and commercial ties, strengthening defence cooperation, and supporting Sri Lanka’s economic and maritime sovereignty.
The United States and Sri Lanka share a strong and enduring partnership rooted in our mutual commitment to regional security, economic growth, and prosperity for our peoples. Through close cooperation on defence, trade, and maritime security, we are working together to advance a free, open, and resilient Indo-Pacific region.
As we continue to build on our strategic partnership, the United States also stands with the people of Sri Lanka as they respond to the devastating impacts of Cyclone Ditwah. We remain committed to working together to address both immediate challenges and long-term opportunities for our two nations, reflecting our ongoing commitment to the U.S.-Sri Lanka partnership.”
Showers or thundershowers will occur at times in the Northern, North-Central, Eastern and Uva provinces and in Puttalam, Matale and Kurunegala districts
Rs 1. 3 bn yahapalana building deal under investigation
SL Railways suffers staggering losses; more than 2/3 of rail tracks out of service
US, SL advancing free, open, and resilient Indo-Pacific region: Embassy
Vetaran lankan artistes domiciled in UK felicitated in London ceremony
Forced disappearances, a contentious issue warranting NPP’s attention – FSP
‘Dates have the highest sugar content to fight Coronavirus’
Sunday Island 27 December – Headlines
#SundayIsland 17th December – Headlines
Sunday Island – 28th March
Sunday Island Headlines – 21 March
Sunday Island – 21st February – Headlines
-
News4 days agoOver 35,000 drug offenders nabbed in 36 days
-
Features2 days agoFinally, Mahinda Yapa sets the record straight
-
News3 days agoCyclone Ditwah leaves Sri Lanka’s biodiversity in ruins: Top scientist warns of unseen ecological disaster
-
Business6 days agoLOLC Finance Factoring powers business growth
-
News6 days agoCPC delegation meets JVP for talks on disaster response
-
News6 days agoA 6th Year Accolade: The Eternal Opulence of My Fair Lady
-
News4 days agoRising water level in Malwathu Oya triggers alert in Thanthirimale
-
Features5 days agoThe Catastrophic Impact of Tropical Cyclone Ditwah on Sri Lanka: