News
An October Surprise
By Gwynne Dyer
An ‘October Surprise’ in the United States is now almost inevitable, because that will be Donald Trump’s last chance to get re-elected legitimately. He might try to cling to office even if he loses the vote, but it would be a lot easier and neater if he actually won a majority in the Electoral College on 3 November.
‘October Surprise’ is the American political term for a fake crisis, usually involving foreigners, that is ‘discovered’ by a president trailing badly in the polls in the last few weeks before an election. All other issues are forgotten, Americans rally around the flag, and the incumbent wins on a surge of patriotism. Or that’s the theory, at least.
The same thing happens elsewhere too, of course, and not necessarily in October. That’s when it needs to happen in to win a US presidential election, but there’s a ‘July Surprise’ happening in Belarus right now (because the election there is set for 9 August).
Last week Alexander Lukashenko, the strongman who rules Belarus, ‘discovered’ Russian mercenaries in his country. They were unarmed and on their way to Istanbul, but Lukashenko says there is a plot: “So far there is no open warfare, no shooting, the trigger has not yet been pulled, but an attempt to organise a massacre in the centre of Minsk is already obvious.” Only I can save our country! Vote for me!
Trump will need something like that because otherwise the coronavirus is going to kill him politically. This was not true as recently as early June, because up until then the United States was not performing especially badly in dealing with the pandemic.
It LOOKED a lot worse because of Trump’s bizarre behaviour – the endless, shameless lies, the narcissism, the suggestions that people should inject bleach, etc. – but in terms of Covid-19 deaths per million people the American fatality rate was still lower than any other major Western countries except Germany and Canada.
The United States was late to go into lockdown, but so were they all, at least compared to most Asian countries. Until recently, if you were a Trump supporter, you could still believe he was doing a good job.
It was Trump’s rush to end the lockdown, not all the earlier nonsense, that did the real damage. He believed that he would lose the election if the economy didn’t revive, but by opening up too fast he managed to revive the pandemic at the same time.
The numbers tell the tale. This week America will record its 160,000th death from Covid-19. That’s almost a quarter of all the coronavirus deaths in the world. Much worse, US deaths are still going up while deaths elsewhere in the developed world have fallen steeply. That’s almost entirely due to Trump.
Take Canada, for example. It’s very similar to the US in economy and demography, but different in social and political terms. Canada has universal health care and a much less drastic divide between the rich and the rest, for example, which probably explains why America’s cumulative death rate per million is 484, while Canada’s is only 237.
The history is therefore an American death rate twice as high as Canada’s: not great, but structurally inevitable. By now, however, Canada has managed to get its deaths down to 10 a day, whereas America is back up around a 1,000 a day.
Even allowing for Canada’s much smaller population, that is 10 times worse. This is what coming out of lockdown too early did to the United States, and it is all down to Donald Trump.
The pandemic is raging again in the United States, and there may be a quarter-million deaths there by election day in November. US ‘deaths per million’ are going up three per day, which means that the US will overtake Chile (now 509) in less than two weeks, Italy (582) in a month, Spain (609) in five weeks. It might even catch up with the UK (682) by election day.
Most of those newly dead Americans will be over 60, so probably Trump supporters. Their relatives and friends are bound to notice eventually. Joe Biden’s lead over Donald Trump in the polls has already widened to 10%. How could Trump turn that around in the remaining 90 S days?
His only hope is to manufacture an October Surprise: a restaged ‘Tonkin Gulf Incident’ with China, perhaps, or a terrorist ‘threat’ so humongous that it gives him a pretext to declare martial law nationwide. Or maybe he will arrange the premature certification of a Covid-19 vaccine so he can roll it out just before the vote. If it kills a lot of people later on, who cares? He won.
Trump knows that if he loses the election he will spend the rest of his life in court, possibly even in jail. He will do whatever it takes to win. It isn’t over yet.
News
Tobacco and alcohol claim 22,000 lives annually
NATA to be given more powers
The Parliamentary Sectoral Oversight Committee on Health, Mass Media and Women’s Empowerment has agreed in principle to ban single-stick sales of cigarettes and increase taxes on tobacco products, according to parliamentary sources.
The decision was reached during an institutional review of the National Authority on Tobacco and Alcohol (NATA) held recently in Parliament. The meeting was chaired by MP Dr. Nihal Abeysinghe.
During the review, NATA officials informed the committee that approximately 22,000 deaths occurred annually in Sri Lanka due to tobacco and alcohol consumption. They said the country suffered an economic loss of between Rs. 225 billion and Rs. 240 billion each year due to the consumption of tobacco products and alcohol.
Officials told the committee that steps were underway to amend the National Authority on Tobacco and Alcohol Act to grant it more powers.
Noting that 104 countries had already banned the sale of loose cigarettes, the underscored the need for Sri Lanka to adopt a similar policy. When loose cigarettes were sold, mandatory health warnings on cigarette packets were not visible to consumers, the NATA officials said.
The committee was also briefed on the importance of imposing taxes on cigarettes after determining their retail prices, as part of broader measures aimed at reducing tobacco consumption.
Commenting on the matter, Dr. Abeysinghe said the committee was prepared to extend its full support for the proposed amendments to the Act, as well as for other programmes and initiatives undertaken by the National Authority on Tobacco and Alcohol.
Deputy Chair of the Committees Hemali Weerasekara, committee members MPs Dayasiri Jayasekara, Muneer Mulaffer, Samanmali Gunasinghe, Prof Sena Nanayakkara, Dr S. Sri Bhavanandarajah, Dr Ramanathan Archchuna and with the permission of the Chair, MPs Dr. Janaka Senarathna and Dr Pathmanathan Sathiyalingam were present at the committee meeting.
News
Development Officers hunger strike drags on for fourth day
The hunger strike launched by a group of Development Officers demanding their absorption into the teacher service entered its fourth day yesterday (29) outside the Presidential Secretariat Colombo.The protesters, members of the Ceylon School Development Officers’ Union (CSDOU), began their satyagraha on January 26.
One of the four officers participating in the fast-unto-death fell seriously ill on the fourth day and was rushed to hospital for treatment, while the remaining three continued the hunger strike. Earlier, Dr. Chamal Sanjeewa, President of the Doctors’ Trade Union Alliance for Medical and Civil Rights, visited the protest site to examine the health of the protesters and oversaw the administration of saline to those suffering from dehydration.
CSDOU Secretary Viraj Manaranga criticised authorities for refusing to listen to the protestors.
“Not a single official from the relevant authorities has come forward to hear our grievances, which is a matter of serious concern,” he said, accusing the government of negligence and “stepmotherly treatment” of the issue.
The Ceylon Teachers’ Union (CTU) echoed the need for legal and procedural adherence, noting that there are currently 40,000 teacher vacancies nationwide. The union stressed that a significant number of development officers and graduates remain outside the teaching service, despite provisions in the teacher service constitution allowing for their appointments, which fall under the powers of Provincial Councils.
National People’s Power (NPP) MP Chandana Sooriyarachchi said graduate development officers are required to sit a compulsory competitive examination. Former Education Minister Akila Viraj Kariyawasam, who oversaw appointments under the Good Governance administration, also stated that direct appointments are legally not feasible. He added that school development officers were absorbed into the teacher service in 2018 through competitive exams and stressed that appointments must follow established procedures, warning that strikes would not alter this process.
The hunger strike continues to draw attention to the demands of the Development Officers as they urge the government to take immediate steps to address their grievances.
News
IMF urges Lanka to diversify trade amidst global tariff risks
Sri Lanka and other small Asian economies must accelerate trade diversification or face heightened vulnerability to global tariff disputes and shifting supply chains, warned Krishna Srinivasan, Director of the Asia and Pacific Department at the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
Speaking in Colombo on the evolving global trade landscape, Srinivasan highlighted Asia’s growing exposure, particularly in the wake of tariff tensions between the United States and China. “Asia benefited a lot from trade integration, benefited a lot from openness to trade,” he said. “So much so that when tariffs were imposed by the US, Asia was subject to the highest level of tariffs.”
He cautioned that the region that gained most from open markets is now at risk of bearing the brunt of protectionist measures. For countries like Sri Lanka, he said, the message is clear: diversify or be exposed.
Srinivasan also noted that South Asia remains the least integrated sub-region in the continent. “Having greater integration with your partners within the sub-region will take you a long way,” he said. For small economies, he added, building deeper trade ties with neighbours and broadening export and production bases is essential for resilience.
Meanwhile, Sri Lanka has received a strong vote of confidence from the IMF following a high-level meeting between President Anura Kumara Dissanayake and the delegation at the Presidential Secretariat.
The visiting IMF representatives, who arrived on January 22 to assess the damage caused by Cyclone Ditwah, spent a week touring the island, engaging with affected communities and observing the impact firsthand. In a briefing, the delegation praised the government’s swift relief efforts, infrastructure restoration, and commitment to rebuilding lives, noting widespread appreciation among citizens for the administration’s handling of the crisis.
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