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An October Surprise

Published

6 years ago

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By Gwynne Dyer

An ‘October Surprise’ in the United States is now almost inevitable, because that will be Donald Trump’s last chance to get re-elected legitimately. He might try to cling to office even if he loses the vote, but it would be a lot easier and neater if he actually won a majority in the Electoral College on 3 November.

‘October Surprise’ is the American political term for a fake crisis, usually involving foreigners, that is ‘discovered’ by a president trailing badly in the polls in the last few weeks before an election. All other issues are forgotten, Americans rally around the flag, and the incumbent wins on a surge of patriotism. Or that’s the theory, at least.

The same thing happens elsewhere too, of course, and not necessarily in October. That’s when it needs to happen in to win a US presidential election, but there’s a ‘July Surprise’ happening in Belarus right now (because the election there is set for 9 August).

Last week Alexander Lukashenko, the strongman who rules Belarus, ‘discovered’ Russian mercenaries in his country. They were unarmed and on their way to Istanbul, but Lukashenko says there is a plot: “So far there is no open warfare, no shooting, the trigger has not yet been pulled, but an attempt to organise a massacre in the centre of Minsk is already obvious.” Only I can save our country! Vote for me!

Trump will need something like that because otherwise the coronavirus is going to kill him politically. This was not true as recently as early June, because up until then the United States was not performing especially badly in dealing with the pandemic.

It LOOKED a lot worse because of Trump’s bizarre behaviour – the endless, shameless lies, the narcissism, the suggestions that people should inject bleach, etc. – but in terms of Covid-19 deaths per million people the American fatality rate was still lower than any other major Western countries except Germany and Canada.

The United States was late to go into lockdown, but so were they all, at least compared to most Asian countries. Until recently, if you were a Trump supporter, you could still believe he was doing a good job.

It was Trump’s rush to end the lockdown, not all the earlier nonsense, that did the real damage. He believed that he would lose the election if the economy didn’t revive, but by opening up too fast he managed to revive the pandemic at the same time.

The numbers tell the tale. This week America will record its 160,000th death from Covid-19. That’s almost a quarter of all the coronavirus deaths in the world. Much worse, US deaths are still going up while deaths elsewhere in the developed world have fallen steeply. That’s almost entirely due to Trump.

Take Canada, for example. It’s very similar to the US in economy and demography, but different in social and political terms. Canada has universal health care and a much less drastic divide between the rich and the rest, for example, which probably explains why America’s cumulative death rate per million is 484, while Canada’s is only 237.

The history is therefore an American death rate twice as high as Canada’s: not great, but structurally inevitable. By now, however, Canada has managed to get its deaths down to 10 a day, whereas America is back up around a 1,000 a day.

Even allowing for Canada’s much smaller population, that is 10 times worse. This is what coming out of lockdown too early did to the United States, and it is all down to Donald Trump.

The pandemic is raging again in the United States, and there may be a quarter-million deaths there by election day in November. US ‘deaths per million’ are going up three per day, which means that the US will overtake Chile (now 509) in less than two weeks, Italy (582) in a month, Spain (609) in five weeks. It might even catch up with the UK (682) by election day.

Most of those newly dead Americans will be over 60, so probably Trump supporters. Their relatives and friends are bound to notice eventually. Joe Biden’s lead over Donald Trump in the polls has already widened to 10%. How could Trump turn that around in the remaining 90 S days?

His only hope is to manufacture an October Surprise: a restaged ‘Tonkin Gulf Incident’ with China, perhaps, or a terrorist ‘threat’ so humongous that it gives him a pretext to declare martial law nationwide. Or maybe he will arrange the premature certification of a Covid-19 vaccine so he can roll it out just before the vote. If it kills a lot of people later on, who cares? He won.

Trump knows that if he loses the election he will spend the rest of his life in court, possibly even in jail. He will do whatever it takes to win. It isn’t over yet.

 


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PM opens ‘Silver Age Center,’ an Elder Care, Training and Research Centre built with modern facilities in Kataragama

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2 hours ago

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2026/04/2

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Prime Minister Dr. Harini Amarasuriya stated that a society must be built where all senior citizens can lead lives of safety, freedom, happiness, health, mobility, and spiritual well-being, with their rights safeguarded. She further emphasized that this is a responsibility shared by both the government and society.

The Prime Minister made these remarks on Tuesday (31st of March) while virtually participating in the opening of the ’Silver Age Center,’ an Elder Care, Training and Research Centre constructed with modern facilities in Kataragama. The event was held at the Ministry of Rural Development, Social Security and Community Empowerment, located in the new Sethsiripaya building.

During the event, the Prime Minister was presented with a draft of regulations and guidelines related to the regulation of institutions that provide residential care for senior citizens, by representatives of the National Council for Senior Citizens.

Expressing her views further, the Prime Minister  stated:

“This project, which commenced in 2022, had been halted due to various reasons. However, we have now resumed the project and are pleased to hand it over to the public today.

One of the key commitments of our policy is to create a society that ensures safety and protects the rights of all. Everyone, from the young to the elderly, deserves to enjoy these rights, freedom, and happiness.

A significant portion of our population is rapidly transitioning into senior age. However, the age of 60 still represents an active stage of life where individuals can contribute meaningfully to society and the economy. Senior citizens have needs, as well as abilities and valuable experience. We must recognize that they can continue to engage with society and remain active contributors.

Institutions that provide services for senior citizens play a vital role, and maintaining them is a social responsibility. It is essential to ensure the rights and provision of necessary services for all senior citizens, whether they live within families, independently, or in institutional settings.

We must ensure access to healthcare, transportation, lifelong learning, freedom, happiness, and spiritual well-being for senior citizens, while safeguarding their rights.

We should move beyond the traditional concept of ’elders homes’ and instead develop institutions that cater to the diverse needs of senior citizens, enabling them to spend their later years with dignity and respect.”

The opening of the ’Silver Age Center,’ Elder Care, Training and Research Centre, was carried out by Deputy Minister of Trade, Commerce, Food Security and Cooperative Development, R. M. Jayawardhana, along with regional public representatives and government officials. The occasion was attended virtually by the Minister of Rural Development, Social Security and Community Empowerment, Dr. Upali Pannilage; Secretary to the Ministry, Sampath Manthrinayake; and other ministry officials.

(Prime Minister’s Media Division)

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Heat Index at Caution Level in the Western, Sabaragamuwa, Southern, Eastern, North-western, Northern and North-central provinces and in Monaragala district

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2 hours ago

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2026/04/2

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Warm Weather Advisory
Issued by the Natural Hazards Early Warning Centre
Issued at 3.30 p.m. on 01 April 2026, valid for 02 April 2026.

The Heat index, the temperature felt on human body is likely to increase up to ‘Caution level’ at some places in the Western, Sabaragamuwa, Southern, Eastern, North-western, Northern and North-central provinces and in Monaragala district.

The Heat Index Forecast is calculated by using relative humidity and maximum temperature and this is the condition that is felt on your body. This is not the forecast of maximum temperature. It is generated by the Department of Meteorology for the next day period and prepared by using global numerical weather prediction model data.


Effect of the heat index on human body is mentioned in the above table and it is prepared on the advice of the Ministry of Health and Indigenous Medical Services.

ACTION REQUIRED
Job sites: Stay hydrated and takes breaks in the shade as often as possible.
Indoors: Check up on the elderly and the sick.
Vehicles: Never leave children unattended.
Outdoors: Limit strenuous outdoor activities, find shade and stay hydrated.
Dress: Wear lightweight and white or light-colored clothing.

Note:
In addition, please refer to advisories issued by the Disaster Preparedness & Response Division, Ministry of Health in this regard as well. For further clarifications please contact 011-7446491.

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Atmospheric conditions will be favorable for afternoon thundershowers in most parts of the island over the next few days from today (02 April)

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2 hours ago

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2026/04/2

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WEATHER FORECAST FOR 02 APRIL 2026
Issued at 05.30 a.m. on 02 April 2026 by the Department of Meteorology

Atmospheric conditions will be favorable for afternoon thundershowers in most parts of the island over the next few days from today (02 April)

Misty conditions can be expected at some places in the Central, Sabaragamuwa and Uva provinces during the early hours of the morning.

Showers or thundershowers will occur at several places in the Western, Central, Sabaragamuwa, Southern, Uva, North-western and North-central provinces after 2.00 p.m. Fairly heavy showers above 50 mm are likely at some places in the Western, Central and Sabaragamuwa provinces and in Kurunegala district. Showers may occur in the  Southern province and in Ampara, Batticaloa and Monaragala districts in the morning too.

The general public is kindly requested to take adequate precautions to minimize damages caused by temporary localized strong winds and lightning during thundershowers.

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