News
An October Surprise
By Gwynne Dyer
An ‘October Surprise’ in the United States is now almost inevitable, because that will be Donald Trump’s last chance to get re-elected legitimately. He might try to cling to office even if he loses the vote, but it would be a lot easier and neater if he actually won a majority in the Electoral College on 3 November.
‘October Surprise’ is the American political term for a fake crisis, usually involving foreigners, that is ‘discovered’ by a president trailing badly in the polls in the last few weeks before an election. All other issues are forgotten, Americans rally around the flag, and the incumbent wins on a surge of patriotism. Or that’s the theory, at least.
The same thing happens elsewhere too, of course, and not necessarily in October. That’s when it needs to happen in to win a US presidential election, but there’s a ‘July Surprise’ happening in Belarus right now (because the election there is set for 9 August).
Last week Alexander Lukashenko, the strongman who rules Belarus, ‘discovered’ Russian mercenaries in his country. They were unarmed and on their way to Istanbul, but Lukashenko says there is a plot: “So far there is no open warfare, no shooting, the trigger has not yet been pulled, but an attempt to organise a massacre in the centre of Minsk is already obvious.” Only I can save our country! Vote for me!
Trump will need something like that because otherwise the coronavirus is going to kill him politically. This was not true as recently as early June, because up until then the United States was not performing especially badly in dealing with the pandemic.
It LOOKED a lot worse because of Trump’s bizarre behaviour – the endless, shameless lies, the narcissism, the suggestions that people should inject bleach, etc. – but in terms of Covid-19 deaths per million people the American fatality rate was still lower than any other major Western countries except Germany and Canada.
The United States was late to go into lockdown, but so were they all, at least compared to most Asian countries. Until recently, if you were a Trump supporter, you could still believe he was doing a good job.
It was Trump’s rush to end the lockdown, not all the earlier nonsense, that did the real damage. He believed that he would lose the election if the economy didn’t revive, but by opening up too fast he managed to revive the pandemic at the same time.
The numbers tell the tale. This week America will record its 160,000th death from Covid-19. That’s almost a quarter of all the coronavirus deaths in the world. Much worse, US deaths are still going up while deaths elsewhere in the developed world have fallen steeply. That’s almost entirely due to Trump.
Take Canada, for example. It’s very similar to the US in economy and demography, but different in social and political terms. Canada has universal health care and a much less drastic divide between the rich and the rest, for example, which probably explains why America’s cumulative death rate per million is 484, while Canada’s is only 237.
The history is therefore an American death rate twice as high as Canada’s: not great, but structurally inevitable. By now, however, Canada has managed to get its deaths down to 10 a day, whereas America is back up around a 1,000 a day.
Even allowing for Canada’s much smaller population, that is 10 times worse. This is what coming out of lockdown too early did to the United States, and it is all down to Donald Trump.
The pandemic is raging again in the United States, and there may be a quarter-million deaths there by election day in November. US ‘deaths per million’ are going up three per day, which means that the US will overtake Chile (now 509) in less than two weeks, Italy (582) in a month, Spain (609) in five weeks. It might even catch up with the UK (682) by election day.
Most of those newly dead Americans will be over 60, so probably Trump supporters. Their relatives and friends are bound to notice eventually. Joe Biden’s lead over Donald Trump in the polls has already widened to 10%. How could Trump turn that around in the remaining 90 S days?
His only hope is to manufacture an October Surprise: a restaged ‘Tonkin Gulf Incident’ with China, perhaps, or a terrorist ‘threat’ so humongous that it gives him a pretext to declare martial law nationwide. Or maybe he will arrange the premature certification of a Covid-19 vaccine so he can roll it out just before the vote. If it kills a lot of people later on, who cares? He won.
Trump knows that if he loses the election he will spend the rest of his life in court, possibly even in jail. He will do whatever it takes to win. It isn’t over yet.
News
GMOA warns of trade union action unless govt. urgently resolves critical issues in health sector
Influx of substandard drugs is of particular concern
The Government Medical Officers’ Association (GMOA) has warned of renewed and intensified trade union action if the government fails to fulfil its promise to resolve the ongoing crisis in the health sector within the next few days.
GMOA Executive Committee member Dr. Prasad Colombage said his association was hopeful that commitments made by the government, including those formally stated by the Minister of Health in Parliament and recorded in the Hansard, would be implemented.
He called for urgent remedial action in view of the influx of substandard medicines into the country, patient deaths linked to such drugs, difficulties faced by doctors in prescribing medicines, and disruptions to patient care services caused by the continued migration of medical professionals. These factors, he warned, had placed patients’ lives at serious risk.
Dr. Colombage said discussions had already been held with all relevant authorities, including the President and the Minister of Health. He expressed hope that swift solutions would be forthcoming based on agreements reached at discussions. However, he cautioned that the GMOA would not hesitate to resort to strong trade union action if tangible progress was not seen in the coming days.
Meanwhile, the Federation of Medical and Civil Rights Professional Associations yesterday (01) handed over a special memorandum to President Anura Kumara Dissanayake, calling for immediate action to resolve the deepening crisis in the health sector.
Federation President, Consultant Dr. Chamal Sanjeewa, said Sri Lanka’s health system was currently facing a severe crisis and had sought an opportunity to hold discussions with the President on the matter.
The memorandum calls for the President’s direct and immediate intervention on several key issues, including the Indo–Sri Lanka health agreement, shortages of essential medicines including cancer drugs, continued allegations surrounding the administration of the Ministry of Health, reported irregularities at the National Hospital, Colombo, and the absence of an internationally accredited quality control laboratory for the National Medicines Regulatory Authority to test medicines. The Federation has also requested a meeting with the President to discuss these concerns in detail.
By Sujeewa Thathsara ✍️
News
Elephant census urged as death toll nears 400
Sri Lanka’s latest elephant census must result in immediate policy action, not remain a paper exercise, Centre for Environmental Justice (CEJ) Managing Director Dilena Pathragoda warned, as nearly 400 wild elephants have already died in 2025 alone amid escalating human–elephant conflict.
With the national elephant population estimated at around 5,879, Pathragoda said the figures would be meaningless unless they shape land-use planning, habitat protection and enforcement.
“As of mid-December, close to 397 elephants have died in 2025, mostly due to shootings, electrocution, train collisions and other human-related causes,” he told The Island. “When deaths continue at this scale, census numbers alone offer little reassurance.”
Official data show that 388 elephants died in 2024, while 2023 recorded a staggering 488 deaths, one of the highest annual tolls on record. Conservationists warn that the trend reflects systemic failure to secure habitats and elephant corridors, despite repeated warnings.
“An elephant census should not end with a headline figure,” Pathragoda said. “If these statistics do not influence development approvals, infrastructure planning and land-use decisions, they fail both elephants and rural communities.”
Elephant populations remain unevenly distributed, with higher densities in the Mahaweli, Eastern and North Western regions, while other areas face sharp declines driven by habitat fragmentation and unplanned development.
Pathragoda said recurring fatalities from gunshots, illegal electric fences, improvised explosive devices along with poisonings and rail collisions expose the limits of short-term mitigation measures, including ad hoc fencing projects.
“The crisis is not a lack of data, but a lack of political will,” he said, calling for binding conservation policy, transparent environmental assessments and accountability at the highest level.
He urged authorities to treat elephant conservation as a national governance issue, warning that failure to act would only see future censuses record further decline of these majestic animals.
“Elephants are part of Sri Lanka’s natural heritage and economy,” Pathragoda said. “Ignoring these warning signs will come at an irreversible cost.”
By Ifham Nizam ✍️
News
CTU raises questions about education reforms
The Ministry of Education has yet to clarify whether school hours will be extended by 30 minutes from next Monday (05) under the proposed new education reforms, Ceylon Teachers’ Union (CTU) General Secretary Joseph Stalin has said.
Stalin told The Island that the Ministry should reconsider the planned reforms, warning that decisions taken without adequate study and consultation could have serious repercussions for nearly four million schoolchildren.
He said the Education Ministry had announced that education reforms would be implemented in Grades from 1 to Grade 6, but it had not said anything about the Grades above 6. This lack of clarity, he said, had created confusion among teachers, parents and students.
Stalin also noted that although learning modules had been issued, students are required to obtain photocopies based on the codes introduced in these modules. However, the Ministry had not revealed who would bear the additional financial burden arising from those costs, raising further concerns over the practical implementation of the reforms.
by Chaminda Silva ✍️
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