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A productive way out of the LNG dilemma

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by Eng Parakrama Jayasinghe

Both Liquid Petroleum Gas (LPG) which recently saw a sharp price increase and is now the preferred cooking fuel even in some rural areas, and yet-to-be-used Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) have received widespread public attention.

Natural Gas (NG) , which is mostly Methane (CH4) , the fossil fuel promoted as the alternative for dirty coal used for power generation, has to be brought in to the country in concentrated form liquefied at low temperature for transport logistics and economies. This makes it LNG when the source of supply is foreign. We will therefore have to depend on LNG as long as it is imported and would also need the storage and regasification facilities such as the Floating Storage and Regasification Units (FSRU) to convert the LNG to the form usable at a power plant. These are the issues under hot debate right now.

Ignoring the sordid details of the major decision making processes of Sri Lanka, particularly in the energy sector, let us face the realities

* A 350 MW power plant designed to use natural gas is being built without any arrangements in place for the supply of the gas needed.

* The 300 MW Yugadhanawi power plant, pushed as designed for easy conversion for the use of Natural Gas, has been running on low sulfur furnace oil as expensive as diesel since 2011.

* The natural gas price in the world is soaring compared to what it was when it appeared to be the best option to get away from coal

* Renewable energy based electricity is now undoubtedly cheaper than any form of fossil fuel based generation including NG , and this is true for Sri Lanka too.

* There is a proven indigenous natural gas reserve in Mannar in Blocks M2 in close proximity to the 900 MW Norochcholai coal power plant

* Coal prices have gone through the roof making coal power, once considered the cheapest when all its ill effects are ignored, is no longer an option financially, economically, environmentally and socially

* Sri Lanka has declared a policy to achieve a 70% contribution by RE sources for electricity generation by 2030, and an international commitment to reach zero carbon emission status by 2050

* There is significant interest backed by actual commitments and multi million dollar investments for the purchase of the Mannar data, by big players in the oil and gas industry targeting the balance blocks offered by Sri Lanka for exploration. This process is underway, supported by an immediate captive demand for the proven sources to be developed

* Sri Lanka is in the throes of a foreign exchange crisis which makes an offer of US $ 250 Million to appear as manna from heaven. However the annual drain of over $ 4,000 Million for the import of fossil fuels, of which nearly $ 1,000 Million is consumed for power generation, is the main contributor to the crisis which is exacerbating due to the current world trends.

* In the government sector, the left hand does not seem to know what the right hand is doing

* Thus a national asset in a company making good profits is being sold through a midnight deal by the Treasury owning the shares, accepting conditions gravely affecting the performance of the Ministry of Power and Energy and the plans and programs of the Ministry of Energy, without any consultation with them.

* In this background it is worthwhile considering if there is still a way out and to eat the cake and keep it. This can be shown to be possible.

The Current State of Play in the Electricity Sector

There has been doomsday predictions of impending energy shortages in the past, most recent being in 2019, which did not come to pass. The next prediction is for 2023 unless the present dependence on imported fossil fuels is arrested. This may come true not because of lack of generation capacity but due to inability to pay for the import of fossil fuels – both oil and coal.

There has been some progress in the development of indigenous renewable energy which fortunately for us is non-fuel based in case of wind and solar. Some impediments imposed by vested interests on this progress has now been removed by the present administration and coupled with the laudable target to achieve 70% RE by 2030 would help accelerate this progress. This goal clearly limits the space available for non-renewable power generation. As the table below indicates there is no room to add any more fossil fuel based power plants including Natural Gas, except perhaps as replacement for the units due to be retired shortly at the end of their economic life.

Notes.

1. Projected total electricity demand in 2030

2. Fossil fuel generation allowable under 70% RE scenario

3. Renewable Energy Capacity to be reached by 2030 to achieve 70% RE target

Therefore the 350 MW Subadhanwi Power Plant under construction may have a role to play as several plants in the Kelanitissa complex are due to be retired.

Although the commitment to achieve zero emission by 2050 would be further challenged by the target of carbon free power generation by 2040, the introduction of natural gas (also a carbon emitter) as a transitional source of fuel to occupy the 30% space up to 2030 is not illogical.

The game plan

As stated above there is no room for adding any more NG power plants at Kerawalapitiya or for fuel switching at Kelanistissa, proposed as the means of absorbing the minimum Take or Pay (TOP) condition of 35 Million MBTU per year in the present deal with New Fotress Energy ( NFE) . Therefore the suggestion that we will only pay for the 25 Million MBTU per year that we can consume, during the first five years and the balance would be accumulated, but nevertheless is payable, will be a Damocles Sword hanging over us. This would also be a strategy to extend the contract for a further five year period. It is futile to make calculations of the amount we have to pay, for something we will not consume at present, as the crystal ball is quite cloudy as to the rate at which the NG prices would escalate. The recent price trends shown below is a good indication.

As such depending on imported natural gas which makes it LNG is not an option we should pursue, if not for any reason other than the drain on the foreign exchange.

Do we have an option? Fortunately based on the opinion of the officials of the Petroleum Development Authority of Sri Lanka (PDASL) now formally established under the Act No 21 of October 8, 2021, we do have a more attractive option. The hard work of these officials who never lost faith in spite of setbacks, unequivocally confirm the proven resources in the Block M2 in Mannar named Barracuda and Dorado of the presence of almost 1.85 Trillion Cubic Feet of Natural Gas (mid-level estimate). This is equivalent to 1,850 Million MBTU, to be compared to the present numbers being bandied about, of 175 Million MBTU over five years as the TOP offered by the NFE. There is adequate gas to operate these two power plants for over 50 years from this one gas field alone.

The prospects of the wider Mannar Basin, inc. Block M2, is estimated to hold 9 TCF of Natural Gas based on analysis of all available data.

So we can operate the Norochcholai, Yugadhanawi and Sobhadhanawi power plants for 30 years with our own gas, if we take the trouble to develop these two reservoirs alone.

But naturally we do not have the expertise or the economic capacity to develop this resource and would need a competent company in the Oil and Gas industry to come to a contractual arrangement with Sri Lanka. May I mention in passing that I hope these negotiations will be done by competent people who have interest of Sri Lanka as the utmost aim, while accepting the realities of the commercial world.

Take or Pay for Natural Gas Development in Mannar

As much as a supplier of an FSRU and supply of LNG would expect a minimum guaranteed of off take, the potential developer of our own gas fields would also have similar expectations, which we cannot deny. It is up to Sri Lanka to evaluate the minimum quantities we can afford to consume without having to pay for gas or services beyond that amount. This becomes even more critical when that payment will need to be in dollars that we don’t have.

It has often been said that the minimum off take that would be acceptable would be in the range of 1000 MW of power generation. This is verified by the NFE terms which targets the two plants at Kerawalpitiya adding up to 650 MW and the passing references to another power plant of capacity 350 MW at the same location, which has not received much attention. It is clear that this cannot happen if we accept the 70% RE target.

But how can we reach the 1,000 MW target but not violate the 70% RE target? Fortunately the recent events have opened a most attractive opportunity to offer a viable level of off take without having to construct any new power plants. The phenomenal rise in the coal prices now exceeding $ 240 per MT at source, could be a blessing in disguise in many ways. No amount of fancy accounting can now prove the cost of coal power generation to be at an acceptable level, even if we can find the dollars to buy the coal.

So the most obvious step to be taken is to covert the three units of 300 MW coal power plants at Norochcholai to operate on natural gas from our own gas resources. Not only does this not require any FSRUs, as the gas will be supplied in gaseous form, which can be pumped directly to the power plant, we will not have to pay for the gas in dollars. There would be some payment on the extraction, processing and piping costs. But this is not linked to any world gas prices. However, the benefits that would accrue, financially, economically and environmentally are massive and too numerous to list here.

Before anyone objects to this proposal by saying that this is not proven technology or has not been done anywhere, I must say that over 100 coal plants have been converted to gas in USA alone.

No doubt this kind of leap would require much planning and analysis in addition to the political wisdom and will. Some temporary measures would need to be taken if the planned time schedules are disturbed. But the realities on the ground and the dire situation faced by Sri Lanka presently and in the foreseeable future, behooves us to look for innovative solutions and maximize the utilization of our own resources that nature has bestowed on us.

But as mentioned before, the principle ingredient required is the commitment to achieve the best for Sri Lanka and the integrity of the decision makers. These unfortunately has been the missing ingredients in all of the past events.

I await responses from those who can appreciate the validity and value of these proposals, as well as those from among the doubting Thomas’s to which I will respond, as the space limits me to preempt such queries.

Has Sri Lanka got the courage to reject the current proposals driven by short term expediencies and possibly other reasons, which will definitely block any chances of our chances of ever developing our proven resources and take this step to make us a net energy exporter?

(E Mail : parajayasinghe@gmail.com Telephone : 0777269970)



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The Digital Underground

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Illegal Foreign Exchange, Undiyal, Hawala and Money Laundering, A Four-Part Investigative Series

Forex Platforms, Cryptocurrency, AI and the New Financial Battlefield

THE INVISIBLE FINANCIAL EMPIRE – PART III

The Boyfriend Who Was Never Real

Priya, a 34-year-old professional in Colombo, met “David” on LinkedIn. He claimed to work in fintech in Singapore. For six weeks they exchanged messages daily, about work, about life, about a recent trip he had taken to the Maldives. Eventually, the conversation turned, gently and naturally, to money.

“I’ve been trading on this platform, let me show you,” he said, sharing a screenshot of a sleek trading dashboard showing consistent, impressive returns.

Priya invested a small amount first, $500. Within days, her dashboard showed it had grown to $650. She withdrew $100 successfully, just to test it. It worked. Encouraged, she invested more. Then more. Over two months, she transferred a total of $42,000 into the platform.

When she tried to withdraw her full balance, the platform demanded a “regulatory release fee” of $8,000 before funds could be unlocked. She paid it. Then another fee appeared. Then the platform stopped responding altogether. “David” vanished. The trading dashboard, the customer support chat, the entire brokerage, all of it had never been real.

This is what investigators now call “pig butchering”, and, in 2026, the most disturbing development is not the scam itself, which has existed for years, but what now powers it: artificial intelligence has industrialised the entire operation.

From Manual Fraud to Machine-Generated Deception

For most of the past decade, romance-and-investment scams, like the one that targeted Priya, required enormous manual labour. Scam operations, many of them staffed by trafficked workers held against their will in compounds across Myanmar, Cambodia, and Laos, needed real humans to build relationships with victims over weeks, manage fake trading platforms, and respond convincingly to questions.

That labour-intensive model has now been substantially automated. According to financial-crime researchers tracking this shift through 2026, threat actors are standing up entire AI-generated “brokerage” experiences end-to-end, complete with KYC onboarding, branded customer-service chat, animated portfolio dashboards, and falsified live market data feeds, and operating them at industrial scale against multiple victims simultaneously. Generative-AI relationship managers now front the WhatsApp and Telegram conversations that once required real human scammers. AI-cloned regulator letters are generated on demand to justify the fake “release fees” that drain victims a final time before the platform disappears.

What has changed is not the deception itself, it is the production economics. The cost of running a credible synthetic brokerage against one additional victim has collapsed, meaning a single criminal network can now run hundreds of “Davids” simultaneously, each one indistinguishable from a genuine fintech professional until it is too late. (Figure 01)

Sri Lanka: From Victim Pool to Operating Base

Sri Lanka’s relationship to this global scam economy has shifted in an alarming direction over the past two years. The country is no longer only a source of victims, it has become an operating base for the criminal networks themselves.

In April, 2026, Sri Lankan police raided a five-star hotel property, in Ambakandavila, and arrested 150 individuals, including 133 Chinese nationals, 13 Vietnamese nationals, and one Malaysian national, allegedly running a cyber fraud centre with links to international criminal syndicates, based in Myanmar and Cambodia. Investigators say the operation followed a now-familiar regional pattern: recruiters advertise “online marketing” or “data entry” jobs on social media to lure foreign workers to Sri Lanka, confiscate their passports on arrival, and force them to operate scam campaigns under threat.

The Central Bank of Sri Lanka has formally flagged pig-butchering scams as a “developing threat,” warning that foreign scam networks are increasingly targeting overseas nationals through scam farms operating from Sri Lankan soil. A 2026 United Nations report estimated that at least 300,000 people have been trafficked into scam centres across Southeast Asia.

This is not an abstract international problem. It is unfolding in hotels and rented properties across the country, exploiting the same infrastructure, high-speed internet, affordable accommodation, accessible tourist visas, that Sri Lanka has built to attract legitimate digital businesses and tourists.

Where the Money Actually Goes: The Stablecoin Pipeline

Behind every successful pig-butchering scam sits a laundering pipeline that has been transformed almost as dramatically as the scams themselves, and the transformation has a single dominant feature: stablecoins.

According to the Financial Action Task Force’s March 2026, report, drawing on analysis from blockchain intelligence firms Chainalysis and TRM Labs, stablecoins accounted for 84% of the USD 154 billion in illicit virtual asset transaction volume recorded in 2025, the highest share ever observed, and a dramatic jump from just 15% only a few years earlier. TRM Labs separately found that illicit entities received USD 141 billion in stablecoins, in 2025 alone, the highest level observed in five years. (See Table 01)

The scale of state-level abuse is striking. A Russian sanctions-evasion network built around the ruble-pegged stablecoin A7A5 processed more than USD 72 billion in total volume in 2025.

Fighting Fire with Fire: AI on the Defensive Side

The same artificial intelligence reshaping financial crime is also, out of necessity, reshaping the defence against it. Legacy anti-money laundering systems, built on static, rule-based thresholds, have proven badly outmatched by AI-generated fraud operating at machine speed. Research cited by compliance technology analysts suggests that between 90% and 95% of alerts generated by legacy AML systems are false positives, consuming enormous investigator time while genuinely suspicious activity slips through.

This is not a frictionless transition. AI models are notoriously difficult to explain to regulators and examiners in the way traditional rule-based systems are. The practical compromise emerging across the industry is a hybrid model: AI handles the initial scoring and prioritisation of risk, while documented rule-based logic still governs the final decision that must be defensible to a regulator.

The Regulatory Response: Catching Up to the Digital Frontier

Regulators worldwide have begun moving to close the most dangerous gaps exposed by this digital transformation of financial crime. (See Table 02)

What Comes Next

We have now traced this investigation from the centuries-old mechanics of Hawala and Undiyal, through the three-stage architecture that turns criminal proceeds into apparently legitimate wealth, to the AI-generated frontier of digital financial crime reshaping all of it at machine speed.

In our concluding instalment, Part IV: “Sri Lanka at the Crossroads: Economic Consequences, Organised Crime and the Road Ahead”, we bring this series home. We examine precisely what all of this costs Sri Lanka in hard economic terms: lost remittances, exchange rate pressure, tax revenue forgone, and the 2026 FATF evaluation that will determine whether the country’s institutions can demonstrate, with evidence rather than legislation alone, that they are equal to this challenge. We close with a practical policy roadmap.

(The writer, a senior Chartered Accountant and professional banker, is Professor at SLIIT, Malabe.
Views expressed in this article are personal.)

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‘There are no private universities in Sri Lanka’ – some considerations for higher education reform

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Academics involved in education policy like to say that there is no such thing as a private university in Sri Lanka. The only ‘universities’ in the country are state universities; anything else offering degrees is a private higher education institution (HEI). This position is technically accurate. Yet, in the discourse and imagination of the public, private universities are very real – people teach in them, students register in them, families pay fees, and such degree holders enter job markets in Sri Lanka and outside.

For decades, activists concerned for public higher education have ignored or resisted looking at private HEIs, as if such scrutiny would taint them. Others have worked in both types of institutions, carrying practices from each to the other. The apex body governing state universities, the UGC, has, meanwhile, ignored the concept of conflict of interest and appointed individuals in private higher education in committees and leadership positions. It is unsurprising then that some of the ideologies informing private higher education appear in reform agendas in the state sector.

This is a good time then to consider the varying types of private HEIs around us, and to take a look at some of the issues within them in the hope that higher education reform agendas will include private, as well as state higher education.

What is a ‘private university’?

First, some clarifications. In the public imaginary, a ‘private university’ is typically an institution that provides a foreign or local degree for which the student makes a payment. But this broad classification encompasses a host of diverse institutions and types of degrees which I detail below.

The Non-State Higher Education Division (NSHE) of the Ministry of Education has recognised 295 degrees by 32 institutions. Most of these are private companies and include a handful of established, well-known private HEIs that are ‘university like’. The degrees are local degrees conferred by the institutions accredited by the NSHE Division. While private HEIs conferring local degrees must be accredited by the NSHE Division, there appears to be no legal consequence for not doing so. In addition, there are several permutations of the private degree that miss the net of this Division and the Standing Committee on Accreditation and Quality Assurance (SCAQA) that assists this Division.

For one, degrees conferred by foreign universities offered, via these same private HEIs, are not vetted by the NSHE Division. Secondly, there is a growing plethora of private HEIs which have either no physical presence locally or only a dubious presence. The University Grants Commission has notified the public, through their website, that foreign universities listed in the Commonwealth Universities Yearbook and the World Higher Education Database are recognised, but refrained from giving any other details – which degrees? Offered by what modes? These details are not known. Some of the foreign universities in the lists may be legitimate entities in their own land but the degrees conferred locally, in their name, may not adhere to curriculum or teaching specifications of the NSHE Division or the UGC.

Another troubling phenomenon is the ‘top up degree’, which appears to work on the same principle as that of a pre-paid mobile connection: if I have a Diploma or an HND of a sort, I am eligible to complete a course of study which provides me with a degree, usually from a foreign university. The idea that someone who does not initially qualify for a degree programme should be able to work their way towards one is a progressive notion. This is the concept that open and distance learning (ODL) was based on initially, but which is now sadly exploited. ODL models are expected to provide opportunity for learning for those who may be excluded from traditional learning institutions. In Sri Lanka, however, we have seen ODL become a marketplace offering easy to obtain, for-fee qualifications by institutions with little commitment to superior teaching and learning.

Finally, a perusal of the many types of private HEIs and their varied degrees bring to mind another question – how should the private degrees, provided by state institutions (that are not educational institutions), be regulated? Who should do so?

All of these create a host of problems for the public – for hopeful students and parents and trusting employers. For the higher education sector, recruitment of academic staff, too, has become difficult due to this plethora of ambiguous higher education qualifications, as I discussed in a previous Kuppi article (‘Recruiting academics to state universities’).

Some issues in private HEIs – a bellwether for change in state universities

In this second part of this article, I will discuss some aspects of work in private HEIs – albeit the more established institutions – given that such issues may appear in reform agendas in future.

Across state universities, all permanent staff of a specific category are paid according to the same criteria. The picture is not so clear when it comes to private HEIs since they are different entities legally, typically companies. Private HEIs have salary scales and financial incentives that are different to each other. The more established private HEIs reportedly have attractive renumeration packages, possibly a reason for academics of state universities migrating eagerly to such institutions during sabbatical years and on retirement. This may not of course be the case with other less established, or improperly registered HEIs of which we know little. Academic staff of these more accepted private HEIs seem to value the high financial remuneration they receive (in comparison to state universities) as something that makes their work rewarding.

Attractive remuneration is important to sustain the good life and is at times seen as the institution’s way of encouraging good work. Yet, this has implications for the future of the institution: to continue to deliver on promised financial packages, institutions must continue to have large profit margins. One strategy has been to enroll multiple cohorts of students per year, even up to three or four intakes per year. This can result in exploitative work conditions, since staff must cater to all these cohorts in that same year. If there is inadequate staff, employees are further burdened. On the other hand, if there is a sudden drop in enrolments (degrees can go out of fashion) unexpected layoffs occur. Similar to other sectors that employ short-term contract staff – including state universities – in private HEIs, too, individual teachers, who are on short term contracts that need regular renewal, can feel pressured to work under difficult or exploitative conditions.

At the same time, even in the more established private HEIs, work norms differ from those of state universities in that they include promotional work that keeps the institution’s name in the eye of the public. The Marketing (or similarly named) unit comes up in conversations as one of the most important departments. It appears to weigh in on decision-making related to the number of staff, the amount of re-sits per exams, and other pedagogically important matters. This is a worrying example of how financial rationales interfere with pedagogically or academically sound processes, resulting in problematic results in the classroom. On the plus side, junior colleagues, who had experience in both state and private HEIs, also felt that they faced less harassment in private HEIs – primarily due to the private HEIs ability to take swift action in reported cases of harassment. This is a real indictment on state institutions and their reluctance to address chronic issues of harassment in our universities.

Yet, while we hear much about problems in state universities, we hardly hear of problems that staff in private HEIs face. One rationale for a lack of public expressions by staff is that expressions of discontent might lead to trouble given the importance of reputation for private HEIs. The worry about reputational damage is a growing concern in state universities, too, as evidenced by social media policies and internal conversations on reputational damage, consequent to negative publicity. Institutional worries of reputational damage are harmful in the long run since these impact not only freedom of expression by student and staff, but also research that is possible in and about the education sector.

Some thoughts at the end…


A close look at the private higher education sector is important given its strong presence in the country. Impending reform needs to regulate this diverse array of higher education offerings in the private sector, as well as the state institutions that offer privately-funded options of higher education (a topic for a separate Kuppi on its own). It is time we carefully considered how to build a whole system of higher education out of this broken mess.

Kaushalya Perera is a senior lecturer at the University of Colombo.

Kuppi is a politics and pedagogy happening on the margins of the lecture hall that parodies, subverts, and simultaneously reaffirms social hierarchies.

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Ready for solo spotlight

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Nish Peiris: Excited about future plans

Singer Nish Peiris is set to take the next big step in her music journey.

The talented vocalist, who has been seen and heard in the scene here for a short while, and was also featured with the now-defunct band, Inner Vision, has announced that she will be fully committing to her solo career, after completing her degree this year.

“I’m finishing my degree this year, and after that I’ll be fully committing to my solo music career,” Nish told The Island.

“I’ve already got a few tours lined up for next year, so I’m really excited for what’s ahead.”

Fans, no doubt, will remember Nish for her smooth voice and stage presence, and the good news is that she is now ready to chart her own path and bring new music to audiences at home and abroad.

With tours already planned for 2027, the year 2026 promises to be an exciting year for the young artiste as she steps into the spotlight on her own.

We wish Nish every success in this new chapter!

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