A budget replete with optimism

Tuesday 18th February, 2025

President Anura Kumara Dissanayake, in his capacity as the Minister of Finance, Economic Stabilisation and National Policies, yesterday presented his government’s maiden budget in Parliament. He said the goal of Budget 2025 was to fulfil the aspirations of the people who had voted the NPP into power, hoping for sustainable growth and development.

The NPP government’s efforts to present an election-oriented budget have partially succeeded and borne mixed results. However painful the IMF bailout conditions may be, they have made the new administration remain focused on the need to achieve economic recovery and act with some restraint, ensuring that, inter alia, its revenue will amount to at least 15% of GDP, and the primary account will have a surplus. The Economic Transformation Act (ETA) has also become a kind of straitjacket on the government. With the local government polls approaching, what the NPP administration would have done to garner favour with the public, if not for the IMF programme and the ETA constraints, is anybody’s guess. President Dissanayake has said his government intends to amend the ETA. If it is planning to lower the bar for itself, such politically-motivated action will entail adverse economic consequences.

There is no gainsaying that workers deserve better salaries. However, one wonders whether the NPP government, just like its predecessors, is labouring under the misconception that it can grant relief to the public by increasing the state sector salaries. In the late 1980s, the JVP coined a pithy slogan—kolombata kiri, gamata kekiri (‘milk for Colombo and melon for the village’)—to highlight the glaring urban bias in the allocation of state resources. Today, it looks like a case of kiri for state employees and kekiri for their private sector counterparts, who have to bear the burden of maintaining the ever-burgeoning public sector by paying high taxes. President Dissanayake lamented in Parliament that the state employees’ real income had decreased. The same holds true for the non-state workers, and other members of the public as well, but they have been left fending for themselves.

Among the budget highlights flaunted by the government is what it calls the highest-ever fund allocations for the health and education sectors. The government has undertaken to allocate Rs. 604 billion for health. The cost of social welfare (Aswesuma) will be Rs. 232.5 billion. Capital expenditure will amount to 4% of GDP. Such spending will benefit the public, but much more needs to be done to mitigate the economic hardships they are facing.

Bridging a 6.7% budget deficit will be a gargantuan task. President Dissanayake is hopeful that a 5% economic growth will be attainable in 2025. He says growth will be facilitated by a strong export sector, where the government expects the exports of goods and services to reach an all-time high of close to USD 19 billion in the current year; this growth in non-debt creating inflows along with robust economic growth and a primary account surplus of 2.3 percent of GDP will ensure that Sri Lanka will be well placed to make debt service payments from 2028 onwards.

President Dissanayake has said he expects the relaxation of restrictions on vehicle imports to deliver a bulk of the country’s revenue gains for 2025. It is fervently hoped that he is not being as optimistic as the proverbial poor man who ordered oysters for dinner hoping to settle the bill with pearls he expected to find on his plate. Some economic analysts have argued that there is the possibility of extremely high taxes, which are sure to drive automobile prices up, causing a drop in the sales of imported vehicles and preventing the government from achieving its revenue targets. How does the NPP administration propose to handle such an eventuality?