Features
“Go Gota Go” = Abolish EP
by Kumar David
It’s pandemonium, an undeclared uprising. Greedy Mahinda delayed his resignation far too long. It will remain unsettled until “unwept, unloved and unhanged” Gota too cuts and runs. Not one Minister, regime MP (hucksters Vasu, Wimal and Udaya included) or government supporter dares to mount an unguarded platform or walk the streets even in the heart of his own constituencies for fear of public ridicule and rotten eggs. The government’s May Day meeting in Nugegoda was milquetoast. No government, ever, has been so loathed, colonial administrations included. A Daily Mirror opinion poll found that 96% said “President and PM must resign”. The DM is an English paper but I think that even across Sinhalese society the ‘Go Gota Go, Go Mahinda Go’ cry is ubiquitous; among Tamils and Muslims it is 100%.
A nationwide hartal and general strike is strengthening; organisers coordinate and time events strategically. Gotabaya imposed a state of emergency for the second time in weeks; people largely ignore it. Strikes continue as and when they wish, the masses on the streets swell. Gota’s gamble has all the markings of another strategic disaster. Will he send out the troops to mow down the people? The police force is divided and dispirited, its loyalties mostly with the people. The military, notwithstanding generous recent pay increases and promotions, is not that stupid. If it kills people like dogs on the streets, remember Rajiv Gandhi; Indian muscle did at least on good thing! Sri Lanka is not an island separate unto itself. One-time Rajapaksa cheerleader Subramanium Swamy has tweeted “India must send in the Indian Army to restore constitutional sanity”. This is what Gota has exposed the country to. The military has been ordered to shoot on sight “anyone who plunders public property”. Will the Rajapaksa family be first in line; it best matches the criterion?
Wishful thinking to one side, coldly and rationally I think that Gota cannot last. Furthermore, odds of even 25 seats for the Plundering Paksa Peramuna at the next election is zilch. Who got rid of Mahinda and Cabinet? Was it the red-hot revolutionaries of the JVP-NPP or was it a spontaneous movement of wide-eyed youth and angry middle class activists? (The use of the term middle class for the modern working class is methodologically inaccurate). The trade unions intervened at the last moment and tilted the scales. For months I have been warning my red-hot revolutionary comrades that the brewing anger was serious and they must integrate with it; I was spurned and ridiculed. The JVP even issued a statement warning people to be cautious of the aragalaya. Now the JVP-NPP is powerless in directing events; it follows like a tail. The Front Line Socialist Party (FSP) led by Kumar Gunaratnam and Pubudu Jagoda though smaller has greater influence. It would be wise for the JVP-NPP and the FSP to coordinate their social and economic programmes.
It is no surprise that Anura and Sajith were cold shouldered (hooted according to some reports) by protesters when they visited the scene after all the fighting was over to secure opportunistic benefits. When Gota is kicked out, by whom will it be; by our red-hot revolutionaries? What a laugh! I futilely begged my comrades to learn how Lenin’s party took control of the ‘July Days’ and prevented anarchy; conditions are becoming anarchic. Government nominee Siyambalapitiya re-resigned as Deputy Spear within hours of re-election. Ali Sabry, sworn into the Cabinet, resigned within 24 hours, re-sworn-in he was kicked so hard on his spineless backside by the IMF that he won’t be able to re-park his precious re-sworn bum on a ministerial cushion for months. Mahinda once a charming rascal is lost in the woods, deaf, blind and ugly. This is the team of cretins, crooks and cripples that Gotabaya Rajapaksa captained till recently.
If this was all I intended to say you will yawn, every column in every media outlet says this ad nauseum. There is a more important subtext I am aiming at. Gotabaya’s removal must lead as quickly as constitutionally feasible to the abolition of the Executive Presidency (EP), root and branch. No humbug repeal of 20A and reverting to 19A except as a stop-gap. The evil system spawned by JR must be eradicated without trace. Even Sajith and the SJB have at last seen the light and demanded abolition of EP. Forget erstwhile chamber-pot carriers now high and dry with full pots on their hands; they will fall in line if or when a presumptive Sajith Administration gets round to handing out sinecures. Ingrained opportunism dies hard.
Another point. What balderdash to say that the minorities did better under EP than the previous parliamentary system. Sure amputation of the citizenship of Upcountry Tamils, Sinhala Only, stuffing Buddhism into the Constitution, “standardisation”, beating up Tamils on Satyagraha etc. are egregious crimes of Sinhala majority parliamentary governments. Compare that with 1983 government-military incited murder, rape and arson, the burning of the Jaffna Public Library, the alleged tens of thousands of civilians murdered in camps with presidential sanction by artillery shells in the closing stages of the Civil War, numerous Tamils and Muslims locked up under PTA, and so on. The kettle and the pot! Neither system provided a shred of protection for the minorities. The cancer of racism is buried elsewhere; a malignant “nationalist” mentality. The “achievement” of Sinhala nationalism, 1983 and the Executive Presidency after all was the consolidation of the LTTE and Prabakaran. The damning case against EP lies elsewhere, it harmed democracy on all sides for 50 years and continues to imperil it now! What a waste if aragalaya limits itself only to throwing out the Plundering Paksas. Must this noble efforts stop short of the golden dream of abolishing EP? Excruciating interruptus!
In respect of an interim administration under Gota even Sajith says “Why should the people make sacrifices only to back another corrupt and inefficient government? Why should people keep the Rajapaksas going?” Anura Kumara says the same on behalf of the NPP-JVP. Both go further and damn EP. Interesting point then, who favours retention of EP? The majority of SLPP MPs don’t care a hoot. They know that this is the last time they will be permitted to crawl into parliament; their only interest (the three con-artists named in my opening para included) is to prolong this their final climax. To do so they must bum the Paksas and dance to every Paksa tune. The only wretches who crave to retain EP are the inhabitants of the Plundering Paksa leper colony. But with such a tiny support base not only Gotabaya, not only the Clan, but the executive presidency too is doomed. Its death rattle jars; let’s hasten its death. Aragalaya must grab this chance by the forelock and not miss a once in a lifetime opportunity.
Lanka’s EP System is not an example of the classic separation of powers between three branches of state – Executive, Legislative and Judicial. Tragically for most of the last 50 years, with brief exceptions the higher judiciary has been a pliant tool in the hands of absolutist or corrupt and self-serving presidents. This limb of the three-legged stool has been as limp as a soon-to-rot pathola. In electoral politics in Lanka (USA and France are different) the pendulum of parliamentary majority has swung in synchronism with presidential elections. JR and Mahinda had stool-pigeon parliaments at their service and no constraints in enacting vile constitutional changes. Lanka has always had an authoritarian presidential scheme. On rare occasions when rogue-presidents were sans two-thirds, gross venality solved it; such is the calibre of our parliamentarians.
There is then a legitimate objection. If MPs are morally so paltry why prefer a parliamentary system? There are two answers, an idealist one and a more pragmatic one. The idealist version I have spoken in favour of at times but found no backers. Legislate to recall MPs; a provision now used elsewhere. But our MPs have invested so much at the hustings that they will never agree to let this outlay go down the tubes till they recover investment plus handsome returns (100 to 200% in five years; not bad eh?). More realistically however I need to concede that ‘recall of MPs’ is not a constitutional change that will happen. Hence by second argument. Even if MPs remain corrupt, a parliament stuffed with rogues is less expensive and less dangerous than EP. The cost side: Say each MP on average robs Rs 5 million during his term of office – the good ones will take nothing, the worst say Rs.10 million. The averaged-out total take of 225 persons is Rs.1,125 million (Rs.1.125 billion). What is the alleged take of the Brotherhood? Rumours put it at billions of dollars; a difference of two orders of magnitude!
I do not need to argue the democracy case; 225 headless chickens cannot inflict the Lasantha-Ekneligoda murders, White Vans and Flags, Easter Sunday terrorism cover-ups, human-rights violations that have brought shame on the country, incompetent military brass in key positions, and Muslim doctors locked-up on trumped-up PTA charges. It is really not debatable that EP has been a blight on democracy, worse than what we suffered in the previous parliamentary era. Surely it’s an open and shut case then that the parliamentary system has been less-worse than EP on violation of rights.
In the heartland of the division of power thesis, the USA, divisions have emerged. Many issues were simmering but came to a head with a leaked document, whose authenticity has been confirmed by John Roberts the CJ, that the Supreme Court may reverse its 1976 decision permitting abortion. It is feared this will open the door to a raft of reactionary decisions by the Court. The meddlesome hand of America’s most Neanderthal president is writ large. Trump and his Senate allies manoeuvred to have three justices appointed by this the nastiest president in US history, tipping the balance six to three in favour of bigots. America is on the eve of upheavals, protests and demands for constitutional reforms to prevent the Court being taken hostage by dinosaurs who have turned it into a third unelected legislative chamber. Term-limits, compulsory retirement age and expansion of the size of the Court are being canvassed. What we over here need to digest is that curbing presidential powers is on the agenda even on its home turf.
Under capitalism, democracy is key to protecting the rights of the peeditha panthiya and the minorities. An Interim administration seeking to overcome the current gridlock must be based on (a) the resignation of Gota and selection of an Interim president, (b) a caretaker government (Karu is trustworthy as PM but he must publicly distance himself from Gota), (c) elections within four months, and (d) agreement among all who accept the Interim Plan (need not participate in the administration) to repeal the Executive Presidency as soon as constitutionally feasible.
The initial outburst of violence last week was an outpouring of pent up anger. It was understandable, forgivable, therapeutic and mainly spontaneous. Now violence must stop! Lanka has to start work on the four-month Interim Plan. The Interim Administration must implement the Bunker Busting economic package I outlined last week and make drastic corrections while protecting the poorest. The medium term economic rescue programme to follow this is the task of the election winner. I have already offered my suggestions.
Features
Iain Douglas-Hamilton: Science, courage, and the battle for elephants
Passing of Iain Douglas-Hamilton, a man who dedicated his life to conservation and whose life’s work leaves a lasting impact on our appreciation for, and understanding of, elephants.
– Prince William
In Africa on 08 December, 2025, when the sun slipped below the horizon, it did not only give an end for that day, but it also marked the end of a man whose knowledge and courage saved Africa’s elephants. This gentleman was none other than Iain Douglas-Hamilton! There is a beautiful African proverb that says, “When an old man dies, a library burns to the ground,” and it resonates well with Iain’s demise.
Iain pioneered behaviour research on elephants, and he was the first to highlight the elephant poaching crisis in Africa. Also, the adventures he went through to save the elephants will inspire generations.
From Oxford to Africa

The Life of the Last Proboscideans: Elephants”, authored by Muthukumarana, stands as an awardwinning, comprehensive study that integrates elephant evolution, anthropology, biology, behaviour, and conservation science.
Iain was born on 16 August, 1942, into an aristocratic family, the son of Lord David Douglas-Hamilton and Ann Prunella Stack. His parents were a distinguished couple in Britain: his father, a Scottish nobleman, served as a squadron leader in the Royal Air Force, while his mother was a pioneering figure in physical fitness and a prominent advocate for women’s rights. After finishing his school, Iain was admitted to Oxford University to study zoology. At the age of 23, for his PhD, Iain travelled to Tanzania to study the behaviour of elephants at Lake Manyara National Park. This was a daring and humble beginning that would change how the world understood elephants. He learnt to recognise individual animals based on their tusks and ears. He observed their family bonds, their grief, and their intelligence. These findings made the scientific community identify elephants as sentimental beings. During this period, he married Oria Rocco, and together they had two children, Saba and Mara.
Battle for the elephants
When ivory poaching swept across Africa and devastated elephant populations, Iain did not withdraw in despair. He confronted the crisis head-on, guided by science, rigorous data, and unwavering resolve. Through extensive aerial counts and field studies, he laid bare the scale of the tragedy—revealing that Africa’s elephant numbers had collapsed from an estimated 1.3 million to just about 600,000 in little more than 10 years.
It was largely thanks to his work that the global community saw—perhaps for the first time—the full scope of the crisis. His efforts played a pivotal role in pushing forward the 1989 international ban on ivory trade, a landmark moment for wildlife conservation.
In 1993, Iain founded Save the Elephants (STE), an organisation that would become the heart of elephant conservation efforts in Kenya and across Africa.
At STE, he pioneered the use of GPS-tracking and aerial survey techniques to monitor elephant movements, protect them from poaching, and plan safe corridors for them in increasingly human-dominated landscapes. These methods have since become standard tools in wildlife conservation worldwide.
Beyond technology and science, Iain was a mentor. He inspired — and continues to inspire — generations of conservationists, researchers, and everyday people who care deeply about wildlife. Through his books (such as Among the Elephants and Battle for the Elephants), documentaries, lectures, and personal example, he invited the world to see elephants not as trophies or commodities, but as sentient beings — worthy of awe, study, and protection.
Iain and Sri Lanka
In 2003 Iain came to Sri Lanka for the first time to attend the “Symposium on Human-Elephant Relationships and Conflict” as the keynote speaker. On that day he concluded his address by saying, “When I hear the talk of Problem Animal Control, I always wonder whether our species has the capacity for its own self-regulation or Problem Human Control in a humane and wise manner. HEC stands for Human Elephant Conflict, one of our focuses of this conference. How I wish it could come to stand for Human Elephant Coexistence, based on a recognition that other beings also need their space to live in. We are a long way from that, but I am sure that many of the findings of the talented body of researchers in this room will begin a stepwise progress in answering some of these fundamental problems.”
A few years ago Iain’s organisation STE collaborated with the Sri Lankan Wildlife Conservation Society for research activities aimed at reducing human-elephant conflict. In 2016 when the Sri Lankan government was going to destroy the confiscated illegal African elephant ivory, I made a request for Iain to write a congratulatory message to Sri Lanka’s President and Prime Minister for the wise decision they had taken. Iain sent me a four-page meaningful letter written by him, and he was joined by 18 other conservation organisations. In his letter he mentioned, “I want to offer my congratulations to the government of Sri Lanka for the laudable decision to destroy ivory stocks…” Sri Lanka is sending a message to the world that ivory should be without worth; elephants have value when alive. This is a critical message to send, particularly to the religious world, as they are sensitised about the threat religious ivory poses to elephant populations in Africa.”
Fortunately, Iain’s conservation is taken up by his children, especially his eldest daughter, Saba. In 2016 and 2024 she came to Sri Lanka for a lecture hosted by the Galle Literary Festival. Also in 2019, for the Wildlife and Nature Protection Society’s 125th Anniversary, Saba and her husband visited a gala dinner that was held to fundraise for conservation projects.
A difficult path
Iain’s path was never easy. He endured personal peril many times: from hostile terrain and unpredictable wild animals to being shot at by poachers while conducting aerial patrols over war-torn national parks.
Yet despite the danger, despite setbacks — flooded camps, lost data, shifting political tides — his conviction never wavered. His was a life marked by resilience. He refused complacency. He refused to surrender. And through every hardship, he remembered why he began: to give elephants a future.
Iain was also a pilot, and as the old English saying goes, “Pilots don’t die; they simply fly higher.” In that spirit, I wish the same peaceful ascent for Iain. My heartfelt condolences are with Iain’s family.
by Tharindu Muthukumarana ✍️
tharinduele@gmail.com
(Author of the award-winning book “The Life of Last Proboscideans: Elephants”)
Features
Awesome power of gratitude
When you hear the word gratitude the first impression you get is a tail-wagging dog. If you feed a dog one day, it will wag its tail even if you meet it after a few years. That is gratitude. In addition, dogs are great teachers. They are at home in the world. They live in the moment and they force us to stay with them. Dogs love us and remain grateful unconditionally not for our bodies or bank accounts.
Small children are taught to say ‘Thank you’ for any favour they receive from others. They do not know that the two words can have positive effects on your health and the well-being of others.
Some time ago I had to call emergency services as I found one of my family members was unconscious. Within minutes an ambulance arrived and the paramedics whisked the patient away to the nearest hospital. He was in intensive care for a few days and returned home. We were marvelled at the impact of a handful of strangers who took charge of the patient at a critical time. I immediately wrote thank you notes to those who saved the patient’s life. I knew that it was a small gesture on my part. However, it was the only way I could express my gratitude to a dedicated team.
Selfless people
Later I realized that there are a large number of selfless people who do life-saving work, but they never expect anything in return. How volunteers saved a large number of flood victims is a case in point. The flood victims may not have expressed their gratitude in so many words. However, they would have felt a deep sense of gratitude to the volunteers who saved them.
Why do people come forward to help those facing natural disasters and other dangerous situations? A recent research in the United States shows that sharing thoughts of gratitude and performing acts of kindness can boost your mood and have other positive effects on your health. Almost all religions teach that gratitude does have a good impact on your happiness. Professor of Psychology Willibald Ruch says that gratitude is among the top five predictors of happiness.
By showing gratitude you can make positive changes in your own life. If you feel a sense of gratitude whenever you receive something that is good for you, it will be a healthy sign. You cannot get such a feeling in a vacuum because others have to play their roles. They can be your loved ones, friends, strangers or even people in authority. Gratitude is how you relate to them when you see yourself in connection with things larger than yourself.
Gratification lifestyle
Strangely, many people do not pause to appreciate what others are doing for them. For this you have to blame your gratification lifestyle. With the popularity of social media the young people feel that they are the centre of the universe. They seem to think there is no necessity to thank those who help them.
Why should we thank others even for minor favours? Recent studies show that those who express gratitude increase their own happiness levels. They also lower their blood pressure levels to a great extent. On the other hand, they will be able to sleep well and improve their relationships. They are also less affected by pain because of the positive impact on their depression.
They may not know that positive effects of gratitude are long lasting. Research shows that those who write thank you notes improve their mental health. There was also a decrease in their bodily pains. What is more, they feel more energetic in completing their daily activities. Unfortunately, schools and universities do not teach the value of gratitude since it is fairly a new field of study. Researchers are still trying to find out its cause and effect relationship. We know that those who perform acts of gratitude can sleep well. However, we do not know the reason for it. Researchers are wondering whether gratitude leads to better sleep or sleep leads to more gratitude. They also probe whether there is another variable that leads to gratitude and improved sleep.
Children
Despite such controversies, we know for certain that gratitude can benefit people at any stage of life. Most elderly people remain grateful for their children and grandchildren who support them. Elderly people cannot regain their physical strength or mental agility. Therefore they focus on gratitude. They are thankful to their children and grandchildren for their present situation.
How do gratitude recipients react? Research shows that those who receive thank you notes or acts of kindness experience positive emotions. You feel happy when someone holds a door open for you. Similarly, you are happy if you receive some unexpected help. Recently I was pleasantly surprised to see that someone has credited a big sum of money to my bank account in appreciation of a small favour I had done.
When you thank someone they are more likely to return the favour or pay kindness forward. Psychologically, people feel very happy when you thank them. However, some people hesitate to say thank you. The give-and-take of gratitude deepens relationships. In a close relationship husbands and wives do not thank each other. However, there are other ways of showing gratitude. A wife can make her husband feel appreciated. Such a feeling of appreciation will go a long way to strengthen their relationship.
Some people are ungrateful by nature. However, they can learn the art of being grateful. Such people will do well to maintain a gratitude journal. It is something similar to Pinpotha maintained by Buddhists in the past. They can record positive events in the journal. At the beginning this may not be easy. With practice, however, you can do it well. I knew of a man who kept a gratitude journal. Although his family members laughed at him, he did not give up the habit. When he was diagnosed with a terminal disease he used to read his gratitude journal very happily.
By R.S. Karunaratne ✍️
Features
Another Christmas, Another Disaster, Another Recovery Mountain to Climb
The 2004 Asian Tsunami erupted the day after Christmas. Like the Boxing Day Test Match in Brisbane, it was a boxing day bolt for Indonesia, Thailand, Sri Lanka, India and Maldives. Twenty one years later, in 2025, multiple Asian cyclones hit almost all the old victims and added a few more, including Malayasia, Vietnam and Cambodia. Indonesia and Sri Lanka were hit hard both times. Unlike the 2004 Tsunami, the 2025 cyclones made landfalls weeks before Christmas, during the Christian Season of Advent, the four-week period before Christmas preparing for the arrival of the Messiah. An ominously adventus manifestation of the nature’s fury.
Yet it was not the “day of wrath and doom impending … heaven and earth in ashes ending” – heavenly punishment for government lying, as an opposition politician ignorantly asserted. By that token, the gods must have opted to punish half a dozen other Asian countries for the NPP government’s lying in Sri Lanka. Or all those governments have been caught lying. Everyone is caught and punished for lying, except the world’s Commander in Chief for lying – Donald J. Trump. But as of late and none too sooner, President Trump is getting his punishment in spades. Who would have thought?
In fairness, even the Catholic Church has banished its old hymn of wrath (Dies irae, dies illa) that used to be sung at funerals from its current Missals; and it has on offer, many other hymns of peace and joy, especially befitting the Christmas season. Although this year’s Christmas comes after weeks of havoc caused by cyclonic storms and torrential rains, the spirit of the season, both in its religious and secular senses, will hopefully provide some solace for those still suffering and some optimism to everyone who is trying to uplift the country from its overflowing waterways and sliding slopes.
As the scale of devastation goes, no natural disaster likely will surpass the human fatalities that the 2004 Tsunami caused. But the spread and scale of this year’s cyclone destruction, especially the destruction of the island’s land-forms and its infrastructure assets, are, in my view, quite unprecedented. The scale of the disaster would finally seem to have sunk into the nation’s political skulls after a few weeks of cacophonic howlers – asking who knew and did what and when. The quest for instant solutions and the insistence that the government should somehow find them immediately are no longer as vehement and voluble as they were when they first emerged.
NBRO and Landslides
But there is understandable frustration and even fear all around, including among government ministers. To wit, the reported frustration of Agriculture Minister K.D. Lalkantha at the alleged inability of the National Building Research Organization (NBRO) to provide more specific directions in landslide warnings instead of issuing blanket ‘Level 3 Red Alerts’ covering whole administrative divisions in the Central Province, especially in the Kandy District. “We can’t relocate all 20 divisional secretariats” in the Kandy District, the Minister told the media a few weeks ago. His frustration is understandable, but expecting NBRO to provide political leaders with precise locations and certainty of landslides or no landslides is a tall ask and the task is fraught with many challenges.
In fairness to NBRO and its Engineers, their competence and their responses to the current calamity have been very impressive. It is not the fault of the NBRO that local disasters could not be prevented, and people could not be warned sufficiently in advance to evacuate and avoid being at the epicentre of landslides. The intensity of landslides this year is really a function of the intensity and persistence of rainfall this season, for the occurrence of landslides in Sri Lanka is very directly co-related to the amount of rainfall. The rainfall during this disaster season has been simply relentless.
Evacuation, the ready remedy, is easier said than socially and politically done. Minister Lal Kantha was exasperated at the prospect of evacuating whole divisional secretariats. This was after multiple landslides and the tragedies and disasters they caused. Imagine anybody seriously listening to NBRO’s pleas or warnings to evacuate before any drop of rainwater has fallen, not to mention a single landslide. Ignoring weather warnings is not peculiar to Sri Lanka, but a universal trait of social inertia.
I just lauded NBRO’s competence and expertise. That is because of the excellent database the NBRO professionals have compiled, delineating landslide zones and demarcating them based on their vulnerability for slope failure. They have also identified the main factors causing landslides, undertaken slope stabilization measures where feasible, and developed preventative and mitigative measures to deal with landslide occurrences.
The NBRO has been around since the 1980s, when its pioneers supplemented the work of Prof. Thurairajah at Peradeniya E’Fac in studying the Hantana hill slopes where the NHDA was undertaking a large housing scheme. As someone who was involved in the Hantana project, I have often thought that the initiation of the NBRO could be deemed one of the positive legacies of then Housing Ministry Secretary R. Paskaralingam.
Be that as it may, the NBRO it has been tracking and analyzing landslides in Sri Lanka for nearly three decades, and would seem to have come of age in landslides expertise with its work following 2016 Aranayake Landslide Disaster in the Kegalle District. Technically, the Aranayake disaster is a remarkable phenomenon and it is known as a “rain-induced rapid long-travelling landslide” (RRLL). In Kegalle the 2016 RRLL carried “a fluidized landslide mass over a distance of 2 km” and caused the death of 125 people. International technical collaboration following the disaster produced significant research work and the start of a five-year research project (from 2020) in partnership with the International Consortium on Landslides (ICL). The main purpose of the project is to improve on the early warning systems that NBRO has been developing and using since 2007.
Sri Lankan landslides are rain induced and occur in hilly and mountainous areas where there is rapid weathering of rock into surface soil deposits. Landslide locations are invariably in the wet zone of the country, in 13 districts, in six provinces (viz., the Central, Sabaragamuwa, Uva, Northwestern, Western and Southern, provinces). The Figure below (from NBRO’s literature) shows the number of landslides and fatalities every year between 2003 and 2021.
Based on the graphics shown, there would have been about 5,000 landslides and slope failures with nearly 1,000 deaths over 19 years between 2003 and 2021. Every year there was some landslide or slope failure activity. One notable feature is that there have been more deaths with fewer landslides and vice-versa in particular years. In 2018, there were no deaths when the highest number (1,250) of landslides and slope failures occurred that year. Although the largest number in an year, the landslides in 2018 could have been minor and occurred in unpopulated areas. The reasons for more deaths in, say, 2016 (150) or 2017 (250+), could be their location, population density and the severity of specific landslides.
NBRO’s landslide early warning system is based on three components: (1) Predicting rainfall intensity and monitoring water pressure build up in landslide areas; (2) Monitoring and observing signs of soil movement and slope instability in vulnerable areas; and (3) Communicating landslide risk level and appropriate warning to civil authorities and the local public. The general warnings to Watch (Yellow), be Alert (Brown), or Evacuate (Red) are respectively based on the anticipated rainfall intensities, viz., 75 mm/day, 100 mm/day; and 150 mm/day or 100 mm/hr. My understanding is that over the years, NBRO has established its local presence in vulnerable areas to better communicate with the local population the risk levels and timely action.
Besides Landslides
This year, the rain has been relentless with short-term intensities often exceeding the once per 100-year rainfall. This is now a fact of life in the era of climate change. Added to this was cyclone Ditwah and its unique meteorology and trajectory – from south to north rather than northeast to southwest. The cyclone started with a disturbance southwest of Sri Lanka in the Arabian Sea, traversed around the southern coast from west to east to southeast in the Bay of Bengal, and then cut a wide swath from south to north through the entire easterly half of the island. The origin and the trajectory of the cyclone are also attributed to climate change and changes in the Arabian Sea. The upshot again is unpredictability.
Besides landslides, the rainfall this season has inundated and impacted practically every watershed in the country, literally sweeping away roads, bridges, tanks, canals, and small dams in their hundreds or several hundreds. The longitudinal sinking of the Colombo-Kandy Road in the Kadugannawa area seems quite unparalleled and this may not be the only location that such a shearing may have occurred. The damages are so extensive and it is beyond Sri Lanka’s capacity, and the single-term capacity of any government, to undertake systematic rebuilding of the damaged and washed-off infrastructure.
The government has its work cutout at least in three areas of immediate restoration and long term prevention. On landslides warning, it would seem NBRO has the technical capacity to do what it needs to do, and what seems to be missing is a system of multi-pronged and continuous engagement between the technical experts, on the one hand, and the political and administrative powers as well as local population and institutions, on the other. Such an arrangement is warranted because the landslide problem is severe, significant and it not going to go away now or ever.
Such an engagement will also provide for the technical awareness of the problem, its mitigation and the prevention of serious fallouts. A restructuring could start from the assignment of ministerial responsibilities, and giving NBRO experts constant presence at the highest level of decision making. The engagement should extend down the pyramid to involve every level of administration, including schools and civil society organizations at the local level.
As for external resources, several Asian countries, with India being the closest, are already engaged in multiple ways. It is up to the government to co-ordinate and deploy these friendly resources for maximum results. Sri Lanka is already teamed with India for meteorological monitoring and forecasting, and with Japan for landslide research and studies. These collaborations will obviously continue but they should be focused to fill gaps in climate predictions, and to enhance local level monitoring and prevention of landslides.
To deal with the restoration of the damaged infrastructure in multiple watershed areas, the government may want to revisit the Accelerated Mahaweli Scheme for an approach to deal with the current crisis. The genesis and implementation of that scheme involved as many flaws as it produced benefits, but what might be relevant here is to approach the different countries who were involved in funding and building the different Mahaweli headworks and downstream projects. Australia, Britain, Canada, China, Italy, Japan, Sweden and Germany are some of the countries that were involved in the old Mahaweli projects. They could be approached for technical and financial assistance to restore the damaged infrastructure pieces in the respective watershed areas where these countries were involved.
by Rajan Philips ✍️
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