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Crunch time just about to descend upon Sri Lanka

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Repaying foreign debt or financing essential imports?

The available foreign reserves of the country can be used to either repay foreign creditors or to finance imports of essential goods and services required by its citizens. This is the dilemma facing Sri Lanka today.

Repaying the full value of the bond using the limited foreign reserves available would provide a windfall gain to those currently holding these bonds.1 But it will be at great cost to the citizens of the country who will face shortages of essentials like food, medicine, and fuel.

In these circumstances, it is in the best interest of all its citizens, for the government to defer payment of the US dollar 500 million International Sovereign Bonds

(ISB) coming due on 18 January 2022, until the economy can fully recover and rebuild.

Just as an individual with co-morbidities is more vulnerable to develop severe illness if infected with COVID-19 and more to likely require hospitalisation and even treatment in an ICU, Sri Lanka was vulnerable to economic shocks long before COVID-19 struck. The country was already facing several macroeconomic challenges. Muted economic growth. An untenable fiscal position. Although a tough consolidation programme was put in place to bring government finances to a more sustainable path, sweeping tax changes implemented at the end of 2019 reversed this process, with adverse consequences to government revenue collection. Weak external sector due to high foreign debt repayments and inadequate foreign reserves to service these debts.

COVID-19 only exacerbated these macroeconomic challenges. And like a patient who gets over the worst of COVID-19 has a long road to recovery; the economy of Sri Lanka faces many challenges to get back on track.

The onset of COVID-19 in early 2020, only worsened an already grim macroeconomic situation. The country lost the confidence of international markets, and the ability of the sovereign to rollover its external debt became difficult if not impossible. In these circumstances, there was a solid argument for a sovereign debt restructuring. But the response from the government and the Central Bank of Sri Lanka (CBSL) was a firm “No”.

The argument was that Sri Lanka never defaulted on its debt and it was not going to do so now. The official position was also that the government had a ‘plan’ to repay its debt and hence there was no reason to engage in a debt restructuring exercise. However, Sri Lanka faced high debt sustainability risks: the debt to GDP ratio at 110% was one of the highest historically and interest payments to government revenue at over 70% was one of the highest in the world.

Fast forward to 2022. The country’s foreign reserves declined to US $ 3.1 billion.2 Useable reserves are much lower. CBSL has sold over US $ 200 million of the country’s gold reserves to meet its debt obligations. In the first week of 2022, CBSL announced further swap facilities and its commitment to repay the International Sovereign Bond (ISB) of US $ 500 million due in January.

According to statistics from the Central Bank, in addition to the ISB payment, there are pre-determined outflows from foreign reserves amounting to US $ 1.3 billion in the first two months of 2022. Further, based on trade data for the last 5 years, the country on average has a trade deficit of around US $ 2 billion to finance during the first quarter of the year (see Table 1). With expected inflows from tourism under threat with the onset of the Omicron variant and continuing decline in worker remittances, financing this external current account deficit will add further pressure on available foreign reserves. India which accounted for around 20% of recent tourist arrivals is now requiring returnees to the country to quarantine. This will likely further dampen tourist arrivals.

In this context, the country faces a trade-off between using its limited foreign reserves to repay its debt or utilising it to finance essential imports. US $ 500 million is sufficient to finance imports of fuel for five months; or pharmaceuticals for one year; or dairy products for one and a half years of; or fertilizer for two years.

See table 1: Summary of External Sector Performance Q1 – 2017 to 2021 (US $ mn)

Therefore, it is in the best interest of the country and its citizens for the government to defer payment on its debt and use its limited foreign reserves to ensure uninterrupted supply of essential imports. But this requires a plan. To minimise the cost to the economy, the government must immediately engage its creditors in a debt restructuring exercise. This will require a debt sustainability analysis (DSA) by a credible agency to identify the resources required for debt relief and the economic adjustment needed to put the country back on a sustainable path.3 This will be critical to bring creditors to the negotiating table and provide them comfort that the country is able and willing to repay its debt obligations in the future.

The cost of not restructuring is much higher. A non-negotiated default (if and when the country runs out of options to service its debt) would lead to a greater loss of output, loss of access to financing or high cost of future borrowing for the sovereign. It could even spill over to the domestic banking sector, triggering a banking or financial crisis.

The consequences are clear. What will we choose?

Dr. Roshan Perera is a Senior Research Fellow at the Advocata Institute and the former Director of the Central Bank of Sri Lanka

Dr. Sarath Rajapatirana is the Chair of the Academic Programme at Advocata Institute and the former Economic Adviser at the World Bank. He was the Director and the main author of the 1987 World Development Report on Trade and Industrialisation.

The Advocata Institute is an Independent Public Policy Think Tank. Learn more about Advocata’s work at www.advocata.org.



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Sri Lanka’s lifestyle coffee culture boom and the two faces of its economy

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Cutting the cake for outlet number 100 - a symbol of urban commercial revival set against a backdrop of wider household economic recovery.

By Sanath Nanayakkare

On Baseline Road in Colombo, Barista Coffee recently opened its 100th outlet. For a modern café culture spreading across shopping centers, office districts, and provincial towns, this milestone is a major commercial success. It shows a thriving urban service sector and a growing class of lifestyle consumers who use coffee shops as places to work, socialise, and meet.

This is a curious new picture emerging from Sri Lanka’s post-crisis economic recovery: the coffee cup is getting bigger, even as the household tea cup tells a very different story.

Yet, looking past the espresso machines, a different reality unfolds in the country’s kitchens.

International financial institutions note that while Sri Lanka’s macro-economy is recovering, household welfare and employment remain below pre-crisis levels. Poverty rates sit at roughly double what they were in 2019, and food prices doubled over a three-year span, forcing families to cut back on essentials.

This creates a striking local paradox, especially given Sri Lanka’s proud heritage as a global tea producer. While the world pays top dollar for Ceylon Tea, local market studies and industry reports have long pointed out an unfortunate disparity: many ordinary families find high-quality tea too expensive, often settling for lower-grade alternatives at home.

The growth of a 100-outlet coffee network does not mean prosperity has spread evenly across the island. Instead, it proves that there is a specific, well-resourced segment of consumers with the purchasing power to sustain a premium lifestyle economy, even as many other households carefully calculate the cost of everyday groceries.

Barista’s 100th store is not a bad-news story; it is a testament to acute entrepreneurial grit, shifting consumer behavior, and the vital revival of the nation’s urban service sectors. But it serves as an uncompromising reminder that macroeconomic stabilisation is not synonymous with household recovery.

As Colombo’s coffee culture looks toward its next hundred outlets, the true pulse of the nation’s economic health will not be measured by the espresso machines humming in sleek urban hubs, but by the quiet arithmetic happening in millions of kitchens beyond its doors – where the fundamental question remains whether a family can comfortably afford a better cup of Ceylon Tea.

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Aitken Spence Hotel Holdings Rs. 5 billion debenture issue oversubscribed on opening day

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Aitken Spence Hotel Holdings PLC announced that its maiden listed, rated, unsecured, senior

redeemable debenture issue was oversubscribed on its opening day, 15th September 2026.

The Company sought to raise Rs. 3 billion through an initial issuance of 30 million debentures at Rs.

100 each, with an option to issue a further 20 million debentures in the event of oversubscription of the initial issue, increasing the total issue size to Rs. 5 billion.

The Company said it had received applications for more than 50 million debentures, the full amount on offer, prompting the issue to close at 4:30 p.m. on the opening day (15).

The basis of allotment will be announced to the Colombo Stock Exchange as per regulatory requirements in due course.

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GCF urges Asia to turn climate pledges into bankable projects

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The climate leaders’ gathering in Colombo.

By Ifham Nizam

The widening gap between climate commitments and actual projects on the ground has come under the spotlight in Colombo, with the Green Climate Fund (GCF) calling for a decisive shift from pledges and plans towards implementation, investment and measurable climate impact across Asia.

Some 150 climate leaders, government representatives and development partners from East and South Asia have gathered in Colombo for the GCF’s Regional Dialogue, as developing economies across the region seek greater access to climate finance to strengthen resilience, accelerate clean investment and protect vulnerable communities from intensifying climate impacts.

The dialogue has also given Sri Lanka an important platform to highlight the financing challenge confronting a climate-vulnerable economy seeking to strengthen resilience while rebuilding economic capacity.

Opening the dialogue, Environment Minister Dr. Dammika Patabendi called for moving ‘from pledges to projects, from plans to implementation, and from ambition to impact,’ stressing that transformative climate action would require stronger partnerships, increased climate finance and greater support for adaptation.

His message carries particular significance for Sri Lanka, where climate-related disasters increasingly threaten agriculture, water resources, infrastructure, livelihoods and economic activity.

For a country with limited fiscal space, financing climate resilience entirely through domestic resources remains a major challenge. International climate finance therefore has the potential to become an important source of investment for projects designed not only to reduce emissions but also to protect communities and economic assets from increasingly severe climate shocks.

The Colombo dialogue provides an opportunity for Sri Lanka to strengthen its engagement with the GCF and other development partners while highlighting the need to convert national climate priorities into credible, investment-ready projects.

The GCF said its portfolio across Asia and the Pacific currently comprises 129 projects in 36 countries, supported by USD 5.8 billion in GCF financing. It has also approved USD 163 million in Readiness support to help countries strengthen their institutional capacity and ability to access climate finance.

These figures underline the growing scale of climate investment in the region, but they also highlight the importance of countries developing strong project pipelines capable of converting available finance into implementation.

For Sri Lanka, this is likely to be one of the most important dimensions of the current climate-finance discussion.

Projects aimed at strengthening climate-resilient agriculture, water management, disaster-risk reduction, renewable energy, resilient infrastructure and ecosystem protection require significant upfront investment.

Access to concessional and climate-focused international finance could help reduce the burden on public finances while enabling projects with long-term economic and environmental returns.

The need for adaptation finance was reinforced by the opening of the Colombo dialogue, which began with a moment of remembrance for those affected by last month’s glacial flood disaster in Nepal.

For Sri Lanka, a more country-responsive climate-finance system could be particularly valuable at a time when investment needs are high but public resources remain constrained.

As the GCF begins its third replenishment, the real measure of the next phase will therefore be whether climate finance can move faster from international commitments to national projects—and ultimately from project documents to tangible results on the ground.

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