Connect with us

Business

Shopping is going to be a lot more painful in 2022

Published

on

Bloomberg News The great rotation in consumer spending continues.

When the world shut down in 2020, we bought what we needed to stay home: Pelotons, pets, sweatpants and sourdough starter. In 2021, our shopping reflected reopening: We put on lipstick again, whitened our teeth and swapped loungewear for chinos and dresses. Most consumer, retail and luxury groups had a pretty good year.

But consumer sectors are now facing another shift in habits, and this one may not be as favorable.

The omicron variant is a headwind for travel, hospitality and retail. Even if the latest wave of infections peaks relatively soon, there are other perils ahead — from lockdown savings being exhausted just as prices are rising to tighter monetary policy and higher borrowing costs, something consumers haven’t had to endure for several years.

Already, the cracks are beginning to show.

Even before the surge in omicron cases, there were signs of consumers becoming more cautious. British retailer Currys Plc, for example, said demand for its electronics was weaker than expected. And amid fewer people heading into city centers and offices, famous London department store Harrods brought forward its sales from Dec. 26 (Boxing Day) to Dec. 17. Other metropolitan areas, such as New York City, have also been suffering.

But it’s not just the new variant weighing on shoppers’ minds. U.S. retail sales less than forecast back in November. True, some spending may have been pulled forward to October, when many retailers ran special offers and consumers shopped to avoid product shortages. But the real concern is that rising prices have finally begun to take their toll.

Up to now, consumers have been able to withstand accelerating inflation on everything from coffee to coffee tables. Many were flush with savings after being homebound for much of the past two years. But reopening economies drew down that cash.

And now prices are rising at an even faster clip. Most consumer-goods companies are already negotiating price hikes with retailers or will start in January. With inflation coming through in commodities from oil to packaging, that will make for some difficult conversations. It is also likely to lead to further spikes. U.S. food prices rose 6.1% in November, the highest level in 13 years. We could see a similar escalation in Europe.

Although wages are increasing too, U.S. inflation is outpacing it by some distance: The gap between the two is the biggest it’s been for more than 20 years.

Some of the caution Currys has seen may reflect a spending squeeze already under way in Britain. After all, a new laptop, iPhone or oven is a large purchase. In the U.S., Lowe’s Cos. said it expected the pandemic home improvement boom to finally wane.

Many people spent big during the pandemic, especially on new homes. This might be another source of weakness as interest rates rise. Higher borrowing costs are expected in 2022, which could lead Americans and Europeans to pull in the purse strings.

While large, expensive items may be the first to feel the pinch, other areas will eventually suffer too. Consumers have a tendency to trade down from big brands to cheaper private labels, or switch from meat to vegetable-based meals, when stressed about their wallets. Cutting back on indulgences that grew during the pandemic, such as ordering takeout, would be another way to save money.

There are some silver linings. Although the arrival of omicron is hurting travel and leisure, it may, in the short term, ease some of the forthcoming consumer pain. Working from home again means saving money on commuting and lunches out. Hopes for a “revenge Christmas” this year — going all out to make up for a bleak 2020 holiday — are already looking fragile, as some people cancel their restaurant reservations and plans to hold large gatherings.

January is always a grim month for retailers, restaurants and bars. It’s when credit card bills land and trends such as dry January and Veganuary take hold. But this year it could be even more brutal.

It’s a timely reminder that, like stocks, consumer rotations don’t only go one way. – Bloomberg



Continue Reading
Advertisement
Click to comment

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Business

Mahindra Ideal Finance celebrates debenture listing at Colombo Stock Exchange

Published

on

(Left – Right): Rohit Agarwalla, CFO – Mahindra Ideal Finance Ltd (MIFL); Pradeep De Silva, Deputy General Manager - Gold Loan – MIFL; Ms. Nilupa Perera, Chief Regulatory Officer – Colombo Stock Exchange (CSE); Thilan Wijesinghe, Chairman – MIFL; Mufaddal A. Choonia, Managing Director/CEO – MIFL; Rohita Bandusena, COO – MIFL; Ms. Eshani Thenuwara, Senior Vice President - Debt Capital Markets – NDB Investment Bank Ltd; Ms. Kanishka Munasinghe, Vice President - Listing – CSE.

Mahindra Ideal Finance Ltd (MIFL) recently marked the official listing of its inaugural debentures and debut listing on the Colombo Stock Exchange (CSE) with a bell ringing and market opening ceremony held at the CSE trading floor, symbolising a key milestone in the company’s capital market journey and its commitment to transparency and strong governance.

The listed debenture issue, with a total value of LKR 1 billion, was fully oversubscribed on the first day of opening on 23rd March 2026, reflecting strong investor confidence in MIFL’s financial strengths and the debt market.

Mahindra Ideal Finance Ltd is a licensed finance company with a 58.20% majority stake held by Mahindra & Mahindra Financial Services Limited (Mahindra Finance), a non-banking financial institution of India. It offers a suite of financial products, including leasing, loans, fixed deposits, and other asset-backed financing solutions, with 37 branches island-wide.

Through its inaugural debenture, which carries an “A” (lka) rating from Fitch Ratings Lanka Limited and was managed by NDB Investment Bank Ltd, MIFL aims to strengthen its capital structure while supporting its future growth initiatives.

Thilan Wijesinghe, Chairman of Mahindra Ideal Finance Ltd, who was the ceremony’s keynote speaker remarked upon the company’s inaugural debenture issue, commenting “MIFL’s entry to the Colombo Stock Exchange through its debut debenture listing is a significant institutional milestone. It reinforces our long-term commitment to building a well-governed financial services business with the scale, discipline, and credibility to serve Sri Lanka’s evolving financing needs.”

Delivering her welcome address at the event, Ms. Nilupa Perera, Chief Regulatory Officer of CSE, remarked upon the listing, stating: “Through its Debt IPO Mahindra Ideal Finance Limited makes a statement of commitment to diversifying funding sources and strengthening long-term growth while demonstrating its commitment to the highest standards of corporate governance, through a platform that only CSE can offer.”

2025 saw 22 debt listings including 3 new companies listing on the exchange by way of debt initial public offerings (IPOs) including several firsts in the country from GSS+ debt instruments (Green, Social, Sustainability linked), Shariah compliant debt instruments and High Yield Bonds, with access to investors and brokers facilitated by a fully digitized CSE platform, which can be accessed through CSE’s website and mobile app.

Continue Reading

Business

Customs to halve container checks, easing Colombo Port congestion amid IMF push

Published

on

Tania Abeysundara

In a significant breakthrough for Sri Lanka’s trade and logistics sector, authorities have agreed to halve the number of containers subjected to Customs examination at the Colombo Port—an intervention expected to dramatically reduce congestion and costly delays that have plagued importers and exporters for months.

The decision emerged following high-level discussions between the Ceylon United Business Alliance (CUBA), senior Customs officials, and representatives from the Finance and Industries Ministries.

The business delegation, led by Ms. Tania Abeysundara, included representatives of the Customs House Agents and Traders Association, among them Ghouse Arfin, Jawfer, and Mohamed Niyas. They met with Deputy Minister of Finance Prof. Anil Jayantha and Deputy Minister of Industries Chathura Abeysinghe, alongside top Customs officials.

Sri Lanka Customs Director General Seevali Arukgoda, addressing the concerns of the trade, assured that container examination selectivity would be reduced in line with International Monetary Fund (IMF) recommendations.

At present, nearly 800 containers—amounting to around 40 percent of daily throughput—are flagged for physical examination at key yards, including Grayline 1, Grayline 2, and Rank Container Terminal. This high rate has been widely blamed for severe bottlenecks within the Colombo Port and associated examination yards.

However, under the revised framework, the number of containers selected for inspection will be reduced to approximately 400 per day, bringing the examination rate down to 20 percent.

Senior Customs officials, including Additional Director General (Revenue and Services) S. Loganathan, acknowledged that the current levels of inspections had contributed to mounting congestion, extended clearance times, and increased costs for traders.

Industry stakeholders have long argued that excessive physical inspections—often duplicative and risk-averse—undermine Sri Lanka’s competitiveness as a regional maritime hub.

“The reduction in selectivity is a long-overdue, data-driven reform that aligns Sri Lanka with global best practices,” a senior trade representative said, noting that modern Customs regimes increasingly rely on risk-based profiling and intelligence-led inspections rather than blanket checks.

The move is expected to significantly ease container pile-ups at the port and examination yards, improve turnaround times, and restore confidence among international shipping lines and local businesses.

The Ceylon United Business Alliance welcomed the development, expressing appreciation to both the IMF and Sri Lanka Customs for responding to industry concerns at a critical juncture.

“This is a vital step towards improving trade facilitation and reducing the cost of doing business in Sri Lanka,” the Alliance said in a statement.

Analysts say the reform is part of a broader push under the IMF-supported programme to streamline border processes, enhance transparency, and improve efficiency in revenue collection without stifling trade flows.

With Colombo Port serving as a key transshipment hub in the region, the success of such measures will be closely watched by investors and global shipping operators alike.

If effectively implemented, the reduction in container examination could mark a turning point in Sri Lanka’s efforts to rebuild its trade competitiveness and strengthen its position in the highly competitive Indian Ocean logistics network.

By Ifham Nizam

Continue Reading

Business

Extreme polarization, volatility, uncertainty and pessimism since end of Cold War: Possible stratagem

Published

on

Prof. Saj U. Mendis, PhD

Seldom has the world witnessed such polarization and volatility mixed with uncertainty even more than in the 1990s with the collapse of Berlin Wall leading to the unification of West and East Germany, dissolution of the then Soviet Union known as Perestroika, First Gulf War and rapid expansion of NATO, amongst others. During this period, the undersigned was researching these subject matters in 1990s in Graduate School in the US, but the global community, mostly, was unaware or least disturbed as the impingement did not transcend to the entire world as well as the internet and social media were only at embryonic stage.

The undersigned recollects that the only issue which perturbed the global community, including Sri Lanka, was the First Gulf War of 1990s as it impacted, yet again, the price of oil. Only other instances that the world experienced such uncertainty or polarization after WW II were the two Oil crises of 1970s, Vietnam and Korean War including the Second Indochina War of 1960s, financial crisis of 2008, September 11th Attacks in US, Arab Spring of 2010 and of course the Cuban crisis of 1962. Most of these events occurred at the peak of the Cold War but the crisis of today is totally and on a tectonically different dimension.

Strait of Hormuz and nature of War:

It is none other than Energy known as Oil and to an extent Gas of Middle East with the rupture and blockade of Strait of Hormuz by Iran due to the ongoing Iran-Israel-US conflict. Envision, the 12-day “Operation Midnight Hammer” of June 2025 of which the US bombed Iran did not make much notice or breakeven news mostly due to the swiftness and precision of the US as well as Strait of Hormuz was not strangled, thus the flow of oil was not affected. In this particular occasion, much discussed and debated subjects in geo-political and geo-economic discourse as Ukraine Conflict and Palestine-Israel Conflict were entirely eclipsed and overwhelmed not necessarily by the Iran War or its destruction of both property and human lives but due to a single word i.e. Oil, or rather “demolition” of flow of 20% of oil and gas via the seminal Strait of Hormuz.

Ironically, a scarcely visible and little-known Strait of Hormuz unlike the Suez Canal, could negatively reverberate and resonate from Seoul, Soweto to San Francisco as no other single natural endowment or commodity. This is more impactful and influential to the global economy than vital agricultural commodities such as corn, wheat or rice. The noted Australian political scientist, Geoffrey Blainey, stated quote “Wars can only occur when two nations decide that they can gain more by fighting than by negotiating. War can only begin and continue with the consent of at least two nations” unquote. If one scrutinizes the military conflicts between and amongst nations including both the World Wars as well as a number of bloody and ruthless conflicts since the Roman times, this geo-political proposition would be true in almost in all the conflicts.

Perilous nature of this Conflict both to Economy and World Order:

In this conflict, what was most terrifying or even “intimidating” to the global community was the geography, topography and geomorphology of Iran. That said, Iran has already seized and blockaded, probably, the most crucial chokepoint of Hormuz and has also threatened to block the 18-nautical mile Bab-el-Mandeb Strait, which connects Red Sea to Gulf of Aden and extends to Indian Ocean. The Strait accounts for nearly 10%-12% of total traded seaborne oil, which mostly power the economies of Asia. This could occur since the Houthi rebels of Yemen, which supports the regime of Iran, has formally involved in the hostilities and fired missiles and other attacks, thus making this particular Strait too, literally and metaphorically, unusable for vessels. The end result could be the unprecedented surge of the price of oil to well over USD 140 a barrel, which could cripple the global economy, mostly the developing countries highly depended on oil and gas such as Sri Lanka. Even the global community was ‘elated’ of the two-week ceasefire but it is by no means a durable permanent solution under any circumstances.

As Richard Hass, President emeritus of the premier geo-political institution of the world i.e. Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) and Envoy, expressed his deep concern as well as fear on CNN program titled “Global Public Square” (GPS), one of the most esteemed weekly programs on international affairs hosted by Fareed Zakaria of the current and dynamic developments in Middle East. Haas accentuated that he was most worried that the eight-decade world order, shaped, fashioned and evolved after the WWII in 1945, could be ruptured and fragmented as never before, thus provoking and engendering global instability and disequilibrium, if the conflict was not permanently resolved on an exigent manner by the global community.

Risk of Kindleberger Trap and response by Sri Lanka:

These are profound geo-political observations and conjectures as well as the undersigned is of belief that such a scenario could lead to a “Kindleberger Trap”. This thesis was popularized by much noted Dean of Harvard Kennedy School, Joseph Nye, which underlines that global volatility and fluidity could occur when a dominant power in the comity of nations declines to extend the so-called global public good and emerging power/s is not in a position to assume such a leadership role or global stewardship. This hypothesis could alarm any nation from least developed to most advanced since the genesis of the WWI and WWII as well as the Great Depression of the 1930s could be detected or sketched, directly or indirectly, to this geo-political theory or trap.

It is ironical to note that apart from the property and human lives which were, unfortunately, lost due to the six-week conflict, one of the greatest setbacks or “victims’’ was none other than the application or recognition of International Law. It was most commendable that Sri Lanka applied and upheld the international and humanitarian law, to the letter and spirit, to rescue the crew of bombed Iranian vessel named IRIS Dena on the EEZ of Sri Lanka, without jeopardizing the decidedly delicate geopolitical equilibrium.

Most efficacious Stratagem was execution of Diplomacy and Negotiations:

As the undersigned drafts this article, it is most disquieting to note that the world is involved in three major conflicts, with at least one of them of the conflict is a nuclear power, as well as a number of other interstate and intra-state conflicts, which are reported or focused by the media and political analysts infrequently if not rarely. As Croesus, who was the last King of Lydia (today known as Turkey), enunciated these judicious words vis-à-vis war, during the era Buddha was preaching Buddhism in India and military strategist, Sun Tzu, was preaching Art of War to Emperors of China. Croesus stated quote “No one is so foolish as to prefer war to peace, in which, instead of sons burying their fathers, fathers bury their sons” unquote. It is equally intriguing to note that one of the top most officials of Carter Administration, Zbigniew Brzezinski, stated that it is of the US interest to engage Iran in serious negotiations on both regional security and nuclear challenge it poses.

Concluding remarks with Observations:

These observations must have been pronounced since the late Mohammed Reza Pahlavi better known as Shah, on an interview with one of the most trusted investigative journalists of the time, Mike Wallace, on CBS “60 Minutes” in 1974, stated that Iran was a proud country with a very long and rich history and civilization, which wished to co-exist in peace, but if war was imposed on Iran, it would not hesitate to respond. He further obliquely implied that Strait of Hormuz was indispensable to the world economy. These were stated well over five decades ago.

It would be befitting and politic to conclude with the sapient and sage words of one of the greatest negotiators and statesmen ever to walk on earth in the last Century, Nelson Mandela, quote “If you want to make peace with your enemy, you have to work with your enemy. Then the enemy becomes your partner” unquote. Final parting stratagem is none other than the execution of diplomacy and negotiations as President Kennedy stated in November 1961 at the historic “University of Washington Speech” quote “Diplomacy and defense are not substitutes for one another. Either alone would fail.” unquote.

Author is a former career Ambassador, Professor and Examiner of International Economics with specialization on Geo-economics and Geo-politics, Board Member, and Strategic Advisor. He earned the MBA from San Francisco State/University of California, PhD from Indian Institute of Technology (IIT) Delhi and is a Senior Fellow at Harvard. He could be reached on mendissaj24@gmail.com

By Prof. Saj U. Mendis, PhD

Continue Reading

Trending