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Lanka’s path to recovery: Restoring human capital in a post-pandemic world

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COVID-19 has had a devastating impact on human capital and has reversed valuable gains made over the past decade. Recovery efforts require a renewed commitment and further investments in human capital, which focus on strengthening education, health and social protection systems for increased shock-responsiveness, protection and productivity, especially among the poorest and most vulnerable, said a World Bank report.

It said: Comprehensive and integrated solutions that build on past and current interventions can help restore and accelerate human capital.

“2021 has been the hardest year of my life,” says 38-year-old Abirami.

Abirami is a domestic aide. Daily wage earners like her have been hit hard by the pandemic. Abirami has been out of work since April 2020, barring a few odd jobs that came her way. Her husband Kumar used to operate a food cart, but that too ended abruptly during lockdown. Unable to make ends meet, the couple was compelled to sell the cart, the only asset they had in their name. They now survive on a few thousand rupees a month and have no stable income to rely on.

Insecurity is a familiar feeling for Abirami. As an informal sector worker, she has no employment benefits, or social security. She lives day to day, using her meagre income to cover their daily needs. She does not have the luxury of planning for her future. That is a challenge for another day.

Abirami’s priority is to educate her two sons. A school dropout herself, she is determined that her boys do not have the same fate. Despite her best efforts, she may be unable to give them the future she hopes for. Though Sri Lanka provides free education, disparities in the quality of education often result in unequal employment opportunities, making it harder for children from poorer households to climb out of poverty.

Abirami is also responsible for her elderly mother who was recently diagnosed with cancer. Though she receives free treatment from public hospitals, Abirami is left with many additional costs associated with her care. For a family that survives on a daily income, this cost is overwhelming.

With so much on her plate, Abirami has never had room for her own dreams. “I always wanted to become a beautician,” she says, sounding almost guilty to admit that she once had aspirations for herself.

Sadly, Abirami’s story is not uncommon. It is a story of lost potential, which speaks volumes about the power of investing in human capital. She leaves us with four key takeaways on how best to understand and approach human capital challenges.

Human capital challenges emerge throughout the lifecycle:

From raising healthy, educated children, and providing jobs for adults, to supporting social security and healthcare for the elderly, human capital challenges occur at all stages of life. They often have a compounding effect, with challenges from each stage building upon the next. Abirami’s inability to complete schooling hindered her job prospects and quality of life and, in turn, affected her children. Failure to address challenges throughout the lifecycle can trap people in vulnerable positions and perpetuate the intergenerational cycle of poverty.

Human capital challenges require integrated and holistic approaches:

Isolated interventions can only go so far in creating sustainable and meaningful change. Human capital challenges require integrated and holistic interventions, based on strong collaborations across key sectors. Additionally, human capital challenges are exacerbated by lack of access to and poor quality of basic services, including water, electricity, and transport. Sri Lanka could benefit from developing a human capital program that brings together key sectors and stakeholders for the implementation of comprehensive solutions that can help restore and accelerate human capital.

The pandemic has reversed valuable human capital gains:

For Abirami and others like her the pandemic has exacerbated existing challenges. In Sri Lanka, around 500,000 people have fallen below the poverty line. Jobs have been lost, particularly among women, many of whom will never return to work.

The implications of prolonged school closures will be more serious for children who couldn’t access online education, and the ‘silent learning crisis’ will impact future productivity and growth. The pandemic has shown us that robust and resilient systems are needed to reduce exposure and vulnerability to shocks. Adapting and preparing for emerging challenges is also important. For Sri Lanka, the rapidly ageing population and the rising non-communicable disease burden pose a significant threat to human capital, and failing to prepare for these challenges could be disastrous.

Investing in human capital today can save money in the future:

Sri Lanka has achieved good results in human capital development with relatively low investment. This remarkable progress demonstrates the country’s potential, and provides a glimpse of what can be achieved with more efficient investment. Human capital challenges reveal inequalities along gender, geography, and income, which allow people like Abirami to fall through the cracks. Investing now can help foster productive citizens who contribute to the national economy, reducing the cost and burden on the system. For instance, in Sri Lanka, only 32 percent of women participate in the labor force as compared to 75 percent of men, and the IMF estimates overall income gains of about 16 percent in 2040 if this gender gap is closed in 50 years.

Looking ahead, Sri Lanka must prepare for the challenge of rebuilding lives and reshaping futures. At this crucial juncture, a renewed focus and commitment to human capital development could support a smooth and resilient recovery. For Abirami, the road to recovery is long and arduous, but with a little help, her sons could have a very different story.



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Current El Niño Status in Sri Lanka

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At present, El Niño conditions have developed and are classified as being at a weak level. Forecasts indicate a 63% probability of a very strong El Niño event developing during the period from November 2026 to January 2027. According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), there is approximately a one-third probability that El Niño will remain below a very strong intensity.

Typical Climatic Conditions Associated with El Niño
Based on analyses of past El Niño events that occurred between 1950 and 2025:
• Rainfall during July and August may be below normal, particularly in the dry zone areas.
• From October onward, rainfall is generally expected to be above normal.
• If a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) develops, enhanced rainfall conditions may continue until December.

Sectors Requiring Attention
• Appropriate measures should be taken for water resource management during July and August.
• Increased rainfall expected from October onward may lead to floods and landslides, requiring preparedness and close monitoring. The forecasts are important for sectors such as, Agriculture /Water management /Livestock /Health /Energy /Other climate-sensitive sectors
• Attention should be paid to official information issued by the Department of Meteorology.

Actions by the Department of Meteorology
The Department of Meteorology continuously monitors the evolving situation and issues:
• Weekly and monthly seasonal forecasts and Monthly analyses of rainfall data to monitor meteorological drought conditions.
As weather conditions are influenced not only by El Niño but also by other climatic factors, updated forecasts and advisories are regularly shared with relevant stakeholder organizations (Irrigation/ Water Management Committee /Department of Agriculture/National Building Research Institute/Disaster Management Centre (DMC)/Ministry of Health /Sri Lanka Land Development Corporation…etc). The Department also provides technical support to the committee established through a Cabinet decision to address climate-related impacts. The Department’s monthly rainfall outlook for July to September 2026 is attached

Monthly Rainfall Forecasts for July, August and September 2026
Month Rainfall forecast
July 2026

During July 2026, there is a higher probability of having near normal rainfall across most parts of the Western and Southern Provinces. The remainder of the country is expected to experience below normal rainfall.

August 2026

There is a higher probability of having below normal rainfall across most parts of the country during month of August 2026.

September 2026

There is a possibility of above-normal rainfall across most parts of the Western and Southern Provinces, while near-normal rainfall is expected in the Sabaragamuwa Province. Below-normal rainfall is likely in the remaining areas during September 2026.

Note: These long-range forecasts may change due to strong day-to-day atmospheric variability associated with the movement of weather systems such as atmospheric disturbances, low-pressure areas, and depressions, as well as intra-seasonal oscillations such as the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO). Therefore, in addition to the weekly and monthly forecasts, it is important to pay attention to the Department’s official announcements, weather advisories and warnings, as well as the daily weather forecasts issued by the Department of Meteorology.

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Govt. move to extend retirement ages of top judges: Opp. complains to UN

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Prof. Peiris addresses the media outside the UN compound in Colombo on Thursday on the controversial government move to extend the retirement ages of Superior Court judges, while former MPs Thalatha Atukorale, Dr Suren Raghavan and Premanath C. Dolawatta look on.

Former External Affairs Minister Prof. G. L. Peiris yesterday (15) briefed the UN Resident Coordinator in Colombo, Marc-André Franche, on President Anura Kumara Dissanayake’s move to extend the retirement ages of the superior court judges and the delay in filling the vacancies in the Supreme Court and the Court of Appeal.

Prof. Peiris, the convenor of the People’s Joint Opposition, led the delegation that included UNP General Secretary and former Minister Thalatha Atukorale, former UPFA National List parliamentarian Suren Raghavan and ex- SLPP MP Premnath C. Dolawatta.

Having met the top official here, Prof. Peiris briefed the media on their decision to bring the developing situation to the notice of the UN.

Referring to the opposition of the legal fraternity to the NPP government’s plan, Prof. Peiris emphasised that the civil society, too, had opposed the politically motivated initiative.

Prof. Peiris said that instead of addressing the burning issues affecting the public, the government was creating new problems.

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Dengue surge pushes hospitals to the brink as cases near 70,000

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A week-long crackdown to begin in 11 districts

Hospitals are coming under mounting pressure as the country’s dengue epidemic gathers pace, with nearly 70,000 infections and 48 deaths reported so far this year, prompting health authorities to launch an intensive week-long mosquito control campaign in 11 districts.

The National Dengue Control Unit (NDCU) said 69,951 dengue cases had been reported by July 13, with 14,572 new infections recorded during the first 13 days of July alone. June saw the highest monthly caseload of the year, underlining the rapid spread of the mosquito-borne disease during the southwest monsoon.

Acting Director of the NDCU, Dr. Kapila Kannangara, warned that the hospital system was facing severe congestion due to the unprecedented influx of dengue patients.

“We are seeing an alarming increase in admissions. Hospitals are under tremendous pressure, and public cooperation is essential to bring the outbreak under control,” he said, announcing that a special one-week dengue control programme would be implemented across 11 high-risk districts.

Health authorities have identified 175 Medical Officer of Health (MOH) divisions as high-risk dengue zones. Public Health Inspectors will conduct inspections, eliminate mosquito breeding sites and initiate legal action against those maintaining mosquito-infested premises.

The Western Province continues to account for the largest share of infections, with Gampaha and Colombo among the worst-affected districts. Several hospitals are already operating beyond capacity as the number of admissions continues to climb.

Health officials attributed the surge to intermittent rains, poor waste disposal, stagnant water collections and inadequate community participation in vector control programmes.

The Ministry of Health has appealed to local authorities, schools, workplaces, religious institutions and households to inspect their premises regularly, clear blocked drains and roof gutters, cover water storage containers and remove discarded tyres, cans, bottles and other containers capable of collecting rainwater.

Medical experts urged the public not to ignore symptoms such as persistent fever, severe headache, pain behind the eyes, vomiting, abdominal pain and bleeding manifestations, stressing that early medical treatment is critical in preventing severe dengue and deaths.

Officials emphasised that eliminating mosquito breeding sites remains the single most effective way of controlling dengue, warning that unless communities actively participate, the outbreak could worsen during the ongoing rainy season.

With daily case numbers continuing to rise and hospitals struggling to cope, health authorities said the coming weeks would be crucial in determining whether the country can curb one of its worst dengue outbreaks in recent years.

By Ifham Nizam

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