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South Asian economies recover amidst uncertainties

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The South Asian economies recover but the recovery remains fragile and uneven, and most countries are far from pre-pandemic trend levels, says the World Bank in its twice-yearly regional update.

The latest South Asia Economic Focus titled Shifting Gears: Digitization and Services-Led Development projects the region to grow by 7.1 percent in 2021 and 2022. While the year-on-year growth remains strong in the region, albeit from a very low base in 2020, the recovery has been uneven across countries and sectors. South Asia’s average annual growth is forecast to be 3.4 percent over 2020-23, which is 3 percentage points less than it was in the four years preceding the pandemic.

India’s economy, South Asia’s largest, is expected to grow by 8.3 percent in the fiscal year 2021-22, aided by an increase in public investment and incentives to boost manufacturing. In Bangladesh, continued recovery in exports and consumption will help growth rates pick up to 6.4 percent in fiscal year 2021-22. In Maldives, GDP is projected to grow by 22.3 percent in 2021, as tourism numbers recover.

“The pandemic has had profound impacts on South Asia’s economy. Going forward, much will depend on the speed of vaccination, the possible emergence of new COVID variants, as well as any major slowdown in the momentum of global growth,” said Hartwig Schafer, World Bank Vice President for the South Asia Region. “While short-term recovery is important, policymakers should also seize the opportunity to address deep-rooted challenges and pursue a development path that is green, resilient and inclusive.”

COVID-19 has left long-term scars on the region’s economy, the impacts of which can last well into the recovery. Many countries experienced lower investment flows, disruptions in supply chains, and setbacks to human capital accumulation, as well as substantial increases in debt levels. The pandemic is estimated to have caused 48 to 59 million people to become or remain poor in 2021 in South Asia.

As countries build back, they have a chance to rethink their long-term development models.

The role of services in the region’s economy has been increasing amid rapid technological change and the accelerated structural transformation of global economic activity in response to the pandemic. The adoption of digital technologies makes services more tradable, enables services to increase productivity of other sectors—including manufacturing—and creates new markets. Some South Asian countries are increasingly providing business and professional services that add value to manufacturing and play a key role in global value chains.

“Countries in South Asia have a strong comparative advantage in exporting services, particularly business processes and tourism, whereas they have struggled to break into manufacturing export markets,” said Hans Timmer, World Bank Chief Economist for the South Asia Region. “To realize the potential of the services-led development, the region needs to rethink regulations and establish new institutions to support innovation and competitiveness.”



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Namal, Janaki further remanded

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SLPP MP Namal Rajapaksa and former Krrish Group Executive Director and businesswoman Janaki Siriwardena were further remanded until October 23 by the Colombo Chief Magistrate’s Court yesterday in connection with an alleged Rs. 70 million bribery case involving the Krrish Group.

Colombo Chief Magistrate Asanga S. Bodaragama rejected the bail application filed on behalf of Siriwardena.

The Magistrate said the order on Namal Rajapaksa’s bail application was not ready and would be delivered on the next court date.

The Commission to Investigate Allegations of Bribery or Corruption (CIABOC) arrested the two suspects and produced them before court over allegations that a bribe of Rs. 70 million had been solicited and accepted in connection with the affairs of the Krrish Group.

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Review of progress in reforms and modernisation of key state revenue-collecting institutions

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A progress review meeting on reforms and modernisation initiatives at Sri Lanka’s key state revenue-collecting institutions was held on Thursday  (15) at the Presidential Secretariat, chaired by Secretary to the President Dr Nandika Sanath Kumanayake, with the participation of representatives of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and officials of the Revenue Administration, Reform and Modernisation Bureau (RARMB) of the Presidential Secretariat.

At the meeting, the IMF representatives commended the revenue collection efficiency of the Department of Inland Revenue, Sri Lanka Customs and the Department of Excise, the country’s three leading state revenue-collecting institutions. Extensive discussions were also held on the progress of the reform and modernisation programmes being implemented at these institutions.

Secretary to the President Dr Nandika Sanath Kumanayake outlined the progress achieved by the three institutions to date and the reforms planned for implementation in the future.

The IMF representatives also highlighted the importance of strengthening risk management, developing human resources and ensuring the efficient operation of computer systems at the respective institutions.

Senior Additional Secretary to the President Seevali Arukgoda also attended the meeting. The IMF was represented by Cindy Negus, Senior Economist in Revenue Administration for the Asia and Pacific, Europe, Middle East and Central Asia regions; Alison Lister, Revenue Administration Adviser; and Gregory Toppin, Resident Revenue Adviser in Sri Lanka. A group of senior officials from the Revenue Administration, Reform and Modernisation Bureau of the Presidential Secretariat also participated.

(President’s Media Division)

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Cut power bills by 3-5%, don’t hike them, consumers demand

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By Anuradha Hiripitiyage

Electricity tariffs should be reduced by between 3 and 5 percent instead of being increased by 2.88 percent in the fourth quarter, as proposed by the National System Operator (NSO), Electricity Consumers’ Association Secretary Sanjeewa Dhammika said.

Addressing a media briefing in Maradagahamula, Divulapitiya, Gampaha, yesterday (16), Dhammika said a proper assessment of electricity generation costs, including the contribution of hydropower, could justify a reduction in tariffs.

He said the NSO had sought approval from the Public Utilities Commission of Sri Lanka (PUCSL) for a 2.88 percent tariff increase, which was expected to generate an additional Rs. 4,438 million.

However, the Commission had indicated that an increase of only 1.46 percent was warranted, amounting to Rs. 2,245 million, he said, adding that even this increase was unnecessary.

Dhammika alleged that the proposed revision sought to pass on to electricity consumers the financial burden arising from the non-arrival of five coal shipments and failed tenders.

“The Government had said that the burden of coal-related losses would not be passed on to the public. It is therefore unjust to make consumers bear these costs,” he said.

He pointed out that the PUCSL had forecast that hydropower would account for 32.34 percent of total electricity generation in the coming quarter, while the cost of such generation would represent only 3.45 percent of the overall cost of electricity production.

Consumers should benefit from the lower cost of hydropower generation rather than bear the burden of more expensive thermal power generation, he said.

Dhammika also questioned the inclusion of Rs. 669 million in capacity charges that had not been approved by the PUCSL, as well as a further Rs. 1,069 million to repay loans relating to incomplete projects.

Including such charges in the proposed tariff revision was unjustifiable, he said.

The PUCSL has given the public until October 30 to submit their views on the proposed tariff revision.

Dhammika said the possibility of increased hydropower generation in the coming weeks, as reservoir levels rise, should also be taken into account when determining electricity tariffs.

He maintained that tariffs could be reduced by 3 to 5 percent if hydropower generation was properly assessed and coal-related losses and unapproved charges were excluded from the calculations.

He further claimed that electricity tariffs could be reduced by as much as 10 percent through the promotion of renewable energy and the effective use of solar power and battery storage systems.

The Electricity Consumers’ Association urged the Government to withdraw the proposed tariff increase, insisting that consumers should not be made to bear costs arising from coal supply problems and other disputed charges.

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